Why are the Irish +9,5&ML+325 a Huge public play?

[PAULYPOKER]

Because the transitive property works so well in gambling.

You're talking in circles as usual Pauly.

Being independent can only make a team stronger, fact.............

No circles pal,

closest relative information is all,

Bet Bama if you are so confident in their superiority,

It will be Notre Dame or nothing for me..............

[GoBlue77]

What does that have to do with Alabama?

Do you think books would honestly give away Notre Dame at +300 if they thought the Irish had a snowball's chance in hell at winning?

I feel sad for you...all u go by is the line, have you ever had an opinion on a game were you werent slobbering all over line movement or "what the spread" is telling you?

[PAULYPOKER]

ND has played a team of Alabama's caliber this year? I didn't realize that.

Yes, Stanford.............

[donkbetter]

This game doesent start until 9:30 if i was a rookie( notre dame) on pga tour and i was last on the tee at u.s. open which doesent tee off until 4 pm I would have a long day of anxiety about the coming round- if I was an old pro Tiger Woods or Mickelson (Alabama) I would have bigger handle on it and plus the help of coaches who have been there done it - I think that is a big edge in this game, maybe worth 3 points right there.

[PAULYPOKER]

Coin,

If the public was on Bama you would be arguing that bama is weak and Notre Dame would cover and upset the tide.................

[suicidekings]

What does that have to do with Alabama?

Do you think books would honestly give away Notre Dame at +300 if they thought the Irish had a snowball's chance in hell at winning?

Call it a no-vig line of +/-310 right now. That implies a ~24% chance of winning if the market was rational. However I would think that this particular matchup leads to a larger than normal percentage of bets being driven by bias rather than rationality, and in general, there's probably more money per bet coming in on the Bama side from the SEC camp. I think a fair line on the Irish is more like +7 & ML+240.

No doubt the line is slanted towards Bama from where it should be.

[PAULYPOKER]

This thread clearly shows that the public consensuses are full of shit as I suspected.........

I did a quick early count and only 23% has ND winning while all the public sports books have ND winning @ 67% up to 80%.......

Predict the Score: Alabama vs Notre Dame

[No coincidences]

I feel sad for you...all u go by is the line, have you ever had an opinion on a game were you werent slobbering all over line movement or "what the spread" is telling you?

Given I have multiple threads in multiple sports with opinions on games and/or lines (depending on the matchup) and you don't, what was the question again?

[No coincidences]

Yes, Stanford.............

Who was the QB for Stanford that day? Hint -- if it was Hogan, the Irish probably wouldn't be playing tonight.

[No coincidences]

This thread clearly shows that the public consensuses are full of shit as I suspected.........

I did a quick early count and only 23% has ND winning while all the public sports books have ND winning @ 67% up to 80%.......

Predict the Score: Alabama vs Notre Dame

Yeah, why go by tens of thousands of bets when you can string together the consensus of a small handful of degenerate gamblers?

You are literally a lost cause.

[No coincidences]

Call it a no-vig line of +/-310 right now. That implies a ~24% chance of winning if the market was rational. However I would think that this particular matchup leads to a larger than normal percentage of bets being driven by bias rather than rationality, and in general, there's probably more money per bet coming in on the Bama side from the SEC camp. I think a fair line on the Irish is more like +7 & ML+240.

No doubt the line is slanted towards Bama from where it should be.

That's about where it would've opened if the books thought ND had a chance to win -- not +10.5 juicing ND backers (I personally figured it was going to be 6.5).

Will Alabama cover the spread? I have no idea. 10 sounds about right to me, but that's just my take. I think the ND ML is dead money though.

[No coincidences]

Coin,

If the public was on Bama you would be arguing that bama is weak and Notre Dame would cover and upset the tide.................

The public isn't "on" anyone here. At 60/40 or whatever it is, it's anyone's guess.

You are off the reservation man. Seek help. Now.

[mikemca]

everyone is reporting that the bama team is staying at the fountaine bleu on south beach...the most famous club in miami is inside the hotel LIV...this is where lil wayne n plenty of other celebs spend their time...im sure this had some effect on peoples bets...although it should have much impact on the game

Saban suspended 2 LBs for breaking curfew a couple days ago.

You are right Pauly and I don't mention this but you are usually correct. SEC is over rated this year, they did not look powerful in most of the bowl games. Having said that they are probably the best conference but it isnt a slaughter, if you listen to ESPN they pump this conference all the time. IMO and that isn't worth too much I too think A & M might be the best team. They seem to score at will. If this kid avoids serious injury and gets better we might see a 3 or 4 year mini dynasty from that team.

If ND beats Alabama easily it will only reinforce my belief.

A & M has 2 Offensive Lineman and 1 D Lineman that go in the top 10-15 picks in this years draft.Manziel made a fan of me but think this year may have been the best team they are going to have with him at QB.

those ranking dont mean shit.

so what notre dame was undefeated....

who did they beat????

an oklahoma team that got curb stomped by Texas A&M

and a southern cal team that got blown out by georgia tech

not impressed. Notre Shame gets exposed tonight.

They wouldnt even be in this game if they didnt beat Pitt in overtime.

They won AT Oklahoma and USC where both teams are usually unbeatable.Oklahoma won 39 straight at home until late last season and were 43-2 when ND beat them.They also beat a pretty good Stanford team and the Pitt game you referenced was in a letdown spot in the wake of the big win at Oklahoma 7 days earlier.

I have a hard time seeing how ND is going to score against Bama but there is little doubt that ND played the tougher schedule.

[PAULYPOKER]

Yeah, why go by tens of thousands of bets when you can string together the consensus of a small handful of degenerate gamblers?

You are literally a lost cause.

This forum represents true consensus,

the free info that you get are from books that want to take your money,

you are the lost cause pal....................

You hit with Louisville and now you are Sharp?

Sit the fukk down kid and eat your vegetables.........

[suicidekings]

Who was the QB for Stanford that day? Hint -- if it was Hogan, the Irish probably wouldn't be playing tonight.

Any team that even flirts with an undefeated season gets lucky a couple of times like ND did on that goal line stand at the end of the Stanford game. Ohio State had their miraculous drive vs Purdue in the final minute and a 2pt conversion after Miller got knocked out.

How close did Alabama come to giving up a last second TD to Georgia in the SEC title game? You can make a VERY strong case that Alabama was very lucky to be in the NC game at all. If there had been 20-30 more seconds on the clock in that game, I don't think the Tide would be playing today.

[Big Bear]

This forum represents true consensus,

the free info that you get are from books that want to take your money,

you are the lost cause pal....................

You hit with Louisville and now you are Sharp?

Sit the fukk down kid and eat your vegetables.........

hahah whaaat

eat your vegetables???

[Vegas39]

Any team that even flirts with an undefeated season gets lucky a couple of times like ND did on that goal line stand at the end of the Stanford game. Ohio State had their miraculous drive vs Purdue in the final minute and a 2pt conversion after Miller got knocked out.

How close did Alabama come to giving up a last second TD to Georgia in the SEC title game? You can make a VERY strong case that Alabama was very lucky to be in the NC game at all. If there had been 20-30 more seconds on the clock in that game, I don't think the Tide would be playing today.

Bama also aided by Les Miles incompetence

[PAULYPOKER]

hahah whaaat

eat your vegetables???

Yes, food for the brain..............

[No coincidences]

This forum represents true consensus,

the free info that you get are from books that want to take your money,

you are the lost cause pal....................

You hit with Louisville and now you are Sharp?

Sit the fukk down kid and eat your vegetables.........

You are certifiable. You've buried yourself more times in the last two weeks alone than I can count.

Plus, you're getting to be like Goat in that I think you post shit just to stir up conversation, because in reality I think you're just a lonely person looking for attention. Maybe you two can hook up in a padded room together.

[suicidekings]

That's about where it would've opened if the books thought ND had a chance to win -- not +10.5 juicing ND backers (I personally figured it was going to be 6.5).

Will Alabama cover the spread? I have no idea. 10 sounds about right to me, but that's just my take. I think the ND ML is dead money though.

This implies that you think the books want to take a position on this game. I think that's 100% wrong. According to Jimmy Vaccaro, this game is on pace to set an all time record for volume on a college football game. The line is MARKET DIRECTED. Not opinion. As of January 1st, the bets were 2-1 on ND, but the money was 3-1 on Alabama, even with the line at -9.5 or higher. This is a very dangerous spot for the books to get opinionated.

http://linemakers.sportingnews.com/ncaa-football/2013-01-03/bcs-national-championship-game-betting-line-alabama-notre-dame-point-spread

[No coincidences]

This implies that you think the books want to take a position on this game. I think that's 100% wrong. According to Jimmy Vaccaro, this game is on pace to set an all time record for volume on a college football game. The line is MARKET DIRECTED. Not opinion.

I was talking about the ML -- not the spread.

Again, I seriously doubt the books are going to give away a pretty popular +300 dog named Notre Dame on a high-volume game like this.

[PAULYPOKER]

This implies that you think the books want to take a position on this game. I think that's 100% wrong. According to Jimmy Vaccaro, this game is on pace to set an all time record for volume on a college football game. The line is MARKET DIRECTED. Not opinion.

Trying to get anything through coins line reading skull is impossible,

he is to far gone,

this false illusion has eaten its way toooooooo far into his brain............

[No coincidences]

Trying to get anything through coins line reading skull is impossible,

he is to far gone,

this false illusion has eaten its way toooooooo far into his brain............

Go ahead and bet the ND ML then. See what happens. Of course, you'll protect yourself with a triple- or quadruple-reverse jinx response so that you're safe either way because we all know if you got serious about gambling and started a real thread -- as you have before -- you'd destroy yourself faster than I can say fraud.

[PAULYPOKER]

CoinLESS,

Here is what my serious threads look like but I doubt you'll be able to tell the difference.......................

My wildcard round of playoffs plays

[suicidekings]

I was talking about the ML -- not the spread.

Again, I seriously doubt the books are going to give away a pretty popular +300 dog named Notre Dame on a high-volume game like this.

I think tossing a little money on a parlay of the ND ML and the Under 41 is not a terrible life choice. Pays out at +650 or better and allows you to bet the Bama ML back the other way, or even better, a Bama-2.5/U48 tease. There's lots of ways to go about betting this game, but I think laying -10 is one of the worst.

[No coincidences]

CoinLESS,

Here is what my serious threads look like but I doubt you'll be able to tell the difference.......................

My wildcard round of playoffs plays

Wow. Four plays. Congrats. I'm sure that if you were 1-3 instead of 3-1, you would've posted your stupid reverse the reverse of reverse jinx graphic.

Hey Pauly, I'll start shipping you my points ASAP so that you can get back on your feet again in the SBR store and square with your SBR point bookies you fvcking sharp you.

[No coincidences]

I think tossing a little money on a parlay of the ND ML and the Under 41 is not a terrible life choice. Pays out at +650 or better and allows you to bet the Bama ML back the other way, or even better, a Bama-2.5/U48 tease. There's lots of ways to go about betting this game, but I think laying -10 is one of the worst.

So given the fact that this game is being bet at record numbers, you think oddsmakers are OK with the idea of overvaluing the Irish on the ML so that all of the ND backers can cash not only their +10 bets but their +300 ones as well? That'd be pretty bad business on the part of the books, who really have no logical reason to offer ND much above +200 here unless they think it's just dead/sucker money.

[PAULYPOKER]

Wow. Four plays. Congrats. I'm sure that if you were 1-3 instead of 3-1, you would've posted your stupid reverse the reverse of reverse jinx graphic.

Hey Pauly, I'll start shipping you my points ASAP so that you can get back on your feet again in the SBR store and square with your SBR point bookies you fvcking sharp you.

Visit this thread to see how many reverse play threads of mine cashed

SBR's Biggest Morons & Losers - "Lock Threads"

[suicidekings]

So given the fact that this game is being bet at record numbers, you think oddsmakers are OK with the idea of overvaluing the Irish on the ML so that all of the ND backers can cash not only their +10 bets but their +300 ones as well? That'd be pretty bad business on the part of the books, who really have no logical reason to offer ND much above +200 here unless they think it's just dead/sucker money.

You're giving me a headache. If the +300 is dead money then the -350 on the Tide is free money?

I don't want to argue about this anymore...

[No coincidences]

You're giving me a headache. If the +300 is dead money then the -350 on the Tide is free money?

I don't want to argue about this anymore...

You said yourself that you would set the line +7/+240, right? So why would the Notre Dame ML be sitting at +300 right now? Again, that's like overvaluing the Yankees in the World Series. I highly doubt the books are going to make a mistake and let the people seeing "value" in the ND ML all meet at the window.

[PAULYPOKER]

You said yourself that you would set the line +7/+240, right? So why would the Notre Dame ML be sitting at +300 right now? Again, that's like overvaluing the Yankees in the World Series. I highly doubt the books are going to make a mistake and let the people seeing "value" in the ND ML all meet at the window.

The public pushed the line you jackass.....................

[suicidekings]

You said yourself that you would set the line +7/+240, right? So why would the Notre Dame ML be sitting at +300 right now? Again, that's like overvaluing the Yankees in the World Series. I highly doubt the books are going to make a mistake and let the people seeing "value" in the ND ML all meet at the window.

The ML is predicated on the spread, not the other way around. What would their position look like if they were sitting on Alabama -7 everywhere? They would be overloaded with Tide money. Absolutely drowning in it...

[RG3ING]

Any team that even flirts with an undefeated season gets lucky a couple of times like ND did on that goal line stand at the end of the Stanford game. Ohio State had their miraculous drive vs Purdue in the final minute and a 2pt conversion after Miller got knocked out.

How close did Alabama come to giving up a last second TD to Georgia in the SEC title game? You can make a VERY strong case that Alabama was very lucky to be in the NC game at all. If there had been 20-30 more seconds on the clock in that game, I don't think the Tide would be playing today.

Norte dame is not Georgia there no where close to Georgia man Jesus Christ y'all an ur bs Irish love they will meet a bama team tonight that is bigger faster an stronger then they have seen all year people they might hang in the for 1st quarter or maybe 2 but the size an strength of bama will break them then add yeldon who can take it to the house anytime he touches the ball he will be hitting the second level of that defense every play after they wear down an yes they will wear down

[suicidekings]

Norte dame is not Georgia there no where close to Georgia man Jesus Christ y'all an ur bs Irish love they will meet a bama team tonight that is bigger faster an stronger then they have seen all year people they might hang in the for 1st quarter or maybe 2 but the size an strength of bama will break them then add yeldon who can take it to the house anytime he touches the ball he will be hitting the second level of that defense every play after they wear down an yes they will wear down

You completely missed the point. Talking about narrow wins and teams having to get lucky to get to the NC game. Alabama had an easier road here than Notre Dame did (according to Sagarin, Football Outsiders, and MANY other respectable resources), and when it boils down to one game, ANYTHING can happen.

Personally I have a pair of teasers on this game with Bama -2 / Under 48, and ND +17.5 / Under 48, shooting for a big middle. My best guess is Alabama winning by 3-8 points in a game that never gets close to 40.

[No coincidences]

The public pushed the line you jackass.....................

The public "pushed the line" where? The bets are 60/40 almost everywhere I've seen. The "public" isn't doing anything to this line you stupid, lost, confused dolt.