Why are the Irish +9,5&ML+325 a Huge public play?

Iwinyourmoney · 01-05-13, 05:51 PM

Because the Irish have the most devoted college football fans anywhere.

They could be -9.5 and be the public side

PAULYPOKER · 01-05-13, 05:56 PM

Originally posted by Iwinyourmoney

Because the Irish have the most devoted college football fans anywhere.

They could be -9.5 and be the public side

Bama has more betting fans.............

Vegas39 · 01-05-13, 05:59 PM

Originally posted by PAULYPOKER

Bama has more betting fans.............

suicidekings · 01-05-13, 06:00 PM

Because the books wanted to assure early ND money that will surely be offset by gameday Alabama money.

PAULYPOKER · 01-05-13, 06:01 PM

Originally posted by Vegas39

Smutbucket · 01-05-13, 06:07 PM

these type of threads are why the books release these dummy numbers and why I dont ever look at them....and I had a great football season, maybe if I was "using every tool available" like some cappers (including public %s) then I would be doing even better! ha jk, ur a sucker if you look at that shit

PAULYPOKER · 01-05-13, 06:17 PM

Originally posted by Smutbucket

these type of threads are why the books release these dummy numbers and why I dont ever look at them....and I had a great football season, maybe if I was "using every tool available" like some cappers (including public %s) then I would be doing even better! ha jk, ur a sucker if you look at that shit

kfranz31 · 01-05-13, 06:20 PM

The books are not crazy they will not lower the line and get smashed

Iwinyourmoney · 01-05-13, 06:22 PM

Originally posted by PAULYPOKER

Bama has more betting fans.............

Normally yes.

But for this game, no

I know a few die hards in my area that have never gambled a penny asking me to get $100 down for them on ND

You would be shocked if we could somehow get accurate data on this

JayLA · 01-05-13, 06:23 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

Because the books wanted to assure early ND money that will surely be offset by gameday Alabama money.

this might be redundant but I'm new at this.. and I respect your opinion, SK.

You're insinuating that by gametime, the line will offset 9,10 and close around 13? No way it reverses and Bama gives less points, right?

BettingWizard · 01-05-13, 10:29 PM

Square side usually wins Title games anyway

PAULYPOKER · 01-05-13, 11:09 PM

Originally posted by BettingWizard

Square side usually wins Title games anyway

Nah,

Bama won last year with over 60% of public on LSU ATS/ML............

BettingWizard · 01-05-13, 11:12 PM

exception to the rule.......guys like Lang usually win these games, that's all you need to know.

suicidekings · 01-05-13, 11:13 PM

Originally posted by kfranz31

The books are not crazy they will not lower the line and get smashed

But they will take Bama money, be it straight at -9.5, teased down to -3 with the total, or bought down to -7. As long as the game doesn't fall on 10 (and I'd be shocked if it did), they'll be just fine.

Vegas39 · 01-05-13, 11:15 PM

Originally posted by PAULYPOKER

Nah,

Bama won last year with over 60% of public on LSU ATS/ML............

oregon / Auburn as well

Fishgold · 01-05-13, 11:17 PM

Notre dame would have finished 7-5 (4-4) if they played in the sec

Alabama wins this game 88% of the time

Alabama -2.5 in a teaser is a free teaser leg

suicidekings · 01-05-13, 11:21 PM

Originally posted by JayLA

this might be redundant but I'm new at this.. and I respect your opinion, SK.

You're insinuating that by gametime, the line will offset 9,10 and close around 13? No way it reverses and Bama gives less points, right?

IMO, the number is placed at a very safe spot for the books. If the books are a little too heavy on ND with a few hours to gametime, they might drop it to -9, etc, but I think the natural market activity should bring in enough Alabama money that their action is relatively balanced. I think there's zero opinion being expressed by the books in where they placed the line.

However I think the market activity in this game is kind of misleading because I think Alabama should never be a 10 point favourite here. Maybe a -7 fave. Bettors are getting excited about getting the best of the number without asking if it's a good number to begin with. I think laying -9.5 in this game is crazy...

suicidekings · 01-05-13, 11:26 PM

Originally posted by Fishgold

Notre dame would have finished 7-5 (4-4) if they played in the sec

You think Alabama had a tough road to the NC game?

Western Kentucky, Arkansas, Florida Atlantic, Missouri, Tennessee, Western Carolina, Auburn. Seven essentially free wins where they just had to show up. Add in Michigan and Mississippi State, who were a little tougher, but extremely overrated, and you have a fairly easy schedule that any top 20 team wouldn't be too upset to play.

Football Outsiders has their season schedule ranked around 50th toughest. Notre Dame's schedule is sitting at 28th.

Jayvegas420 · 01-06-13, 12:39 AM

The line will only move in Bama's favour tomorrow.
Probably to 10.5
I can see ELEVEN flat before Kick off.

I don't expect ND to score more than 13 points.
With The Tide's TT at 25 I can see them covering 12.

Good Luck

No coincidences · 01-06-13, 01:59 AM

Why would you bet this game period?

It's not like if you hit the bet your book will triple your money just because it's the championship game.

Find some obscure CBB number to hammer that night, or just take the day off. Betting high profile games with no angle is suicide.

PAULYPOKER · 01-06-13, 02:02 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Why would you bet this game period?

It's not like if you hit the bet your book will triple your money just because it's the championship game.

Find some obscure CBB number to hammer that night, or just take the day off. Betting high profile games with no angle is suicide.

Last year Bama was a no brainer.............

this year the public is on what I think is the no brainer

Jayvegas420 · 01-06-13, 02:04 AM

Originally posted by PAULYPOKER

Last year Bama was a no brainer.............

this year the public is on what I think is the no brainer

tony_come · 01-06-13, 02:05 AM

This is crazy!

No fukkin way bama cover 10.5

No coincidences · 01-06-13, 02:06 AM

Originally posted by PAULYPOKER

Last year Bama was a no brainer.............

this year the public is on what I think is the no brainer

The No. 1 team is +9.5 against the No. 2 team and you think taking the points is the no-brainer?

tony_come · 01-06-13, 02:08 AM

It's the numbers

Thank you for your opinions

tony_come · 01-06-13, 02:08 AM

Texas a&m is rank#1

PAULYPOKER · 01-06-13, 02:08 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

The No. 1 team is +9.5 against the No. 2 team and you think taking the points is the no-brainer?

No I think the ML is the no brainer,

BCS would like to have new blood holding the title.........

I dunno

Jayvegas420 · 01-06-13, 02:14 AM

Aggies no. 1?
LOL
Cause they have the Heisman?
W/E

PAULYPOKER · 01-06-13, 02:14 AM

The SEC is not what it use to be,

they have shown vulnerability repeatedly this bowl season.............

"The SEC is not what we thought they were"

MoneyLineDawg · 01-06-13, 02:15 AM

I really hope the game is close in the first half.....Bama will wear them down in the 2nd half and I will pound them if Notre Dame plays a good 1st half

As for the game line, no edge really for now

tony_come · 01-06-13, 02:17 AM

Originally posted by Jayvegas420

Aggies no. 1?
LOL
Cause they have the Heisman?
W/E

No aggies is not #1

tony_come · 01-06-13, 02:18 AM

Stanford would beat aggies

No coincidences · 01-06-13, 02:18 AM

Originally posted by PAULYPOKER

The SEC is not what it use to be,

they have shown vulnerability repeatedly this bowl season.............

"The SEC is not what we thought they were"

A&M and Ole Miss just blew out their opponents on consecutive days.

The reports of the death of the SEC has been greatly exaggerated.

Jayvegas420 · 01-06-13, 02:19 AM

OK ST looked the most impressive.
Even though the Boiler Makers didn't have a hope in hell.
Maybe I'm just mad cause I lost the under with a pointless TD in the last 2 mins!