Nunya's Completely Unrelated to MMA betting Value Bus.

**NunyaBidness** · 02-25-13, 01:49 PM

Sportsbook separated their non-US and US product a year ago. I've heard they used a completely different line set. US Customers are still with sportsbook.com.

**Sacrelicious** · 02-25-13, 07:42 PM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

i hear you man. i consider these to be a little bit of a degen bet myself. but just to support the previous point with an example, i was able to get some fantastic lines (it would appear) just by comparing the lines at pinny and paddy, with the lines at my books. i saw that the european books had scola closer to +400, so i played it at +700. bertone was around +1000 at the euros so i played him at +2000. he's +600 now. a little line comparison can go a long way! but then you also have to keep in mind, these small markets are illiquid, especially early on, so you're taking a risk even when line shopping. e.g., if you played arinze early on, say around +700, it may have seemed like a bargain since he was +300 at some books. he's currently in the +3000 range.

I agree with the degen bet, it certainly is a degen bet.

Honestly, the only reason I'm on Turkston is for the reasons outlined above, and its not much because the field is so wide. I just think that he probably has an advantage, because between the first and second elimination voting rounds when the feats of strength take place, I can see him eliminating alot of his competition.

**Sacrelicious** · 02-25-13, 07:43 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Let me say, I spent way more than 20 minutes on this. I was capping openers very early on. Rechecking lines daily. Figuring out new prices after every award show. Probably 30% of my profits came from stale lines at the end, but the rest was work.

Oh of course, and with the number of plays and the amount you made I dont doubt it for a second. It will be a large project and experiment for me next year, I had no idea the amount of value that existed here.

**Grabaka** · 02-25-13, 08:54 PM

Degen and blasphemous! I LOVE it.

**NunyaBidness** · 02-28-13, 07:59 PM

Pinny wants that 2H Old Dominion Money.

**NunyaBidness** · 02-28-13, 09:04 PM

Why are all the weird smiley face scammers targeting my thread?

**Sacrelicious** · 03-02-13, 02:26 PM

Hey question for you if you want to answer it, as you clearly know what you are talking about.

Have you ever employed a chase system or something like it in order to extract some marginal value from a market that you may not be personally interested in, and in your opinion, is it worthwhite to do so?

**NunyaBidness** · 03-02-13, 02:32 PM

Originally posted by Sacrelicious

Hey question for you if you want to answer it, as you clearly know what you are talking about.

Have you ever employed a chase system or something like it in order to extract some marginal value from a market that you may not be personally interested in, and in your opinion, is it worthwhite to do so?

No, never, don't do it.

A chase system is a variation of a Martingale.

There is no method of bet sizing that can turn a -EV bet into a +EV bet. Teams don't become due for wins or losses just because they've had a certain number of wins or losses.

All a chase does is increase your variance. I posted about this very recently, possibly even in this thread. There was a MLB chase thread where guys were bragging about being up huge, and then all got slaughtered when a few bad runs came in.

There's a great scene in the movie In America involving a Martingale. Terrific movie, and does a good job drawing you into the terror of that moment.

**Sacrelicious** · 03-02-13, 02:36 PM

Appreciate the response, I was thinking much along the same lines. I'm trying to figure out a way to extract value from something that I am not a fan of, or have any personal interest or emtions invested into.

It seems to me that the most logical approach to cap for actual profit as opposed to action (as I do with MMA, given that I am a huge fan) is to do just that, find a sport I dont give 2 shits about and start analyzing it pragmatically and look for an edge.

**The iron sheik** · 03-02-13, 04:07 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

No, never, don't do it.

A chase system is a variation of a Martingale.

There is no method of bet sizing that can turn a -EV bet into a +EV bet. Teams don't become due for wins or losses just because they've had a certain number of wins or losses.

All a chase does is increase your variance. I posted about this very recently, possibly even in this thread. There was a MLB chase thread where guys were bragging about being up huge, and then all got slaughtered when a few bad runs came in.

There's a great scene in the movie In America involving a Martingale. Terrific movie, and does a good job drawing you into the terror of that moment.

I'm not sure was it this thread or some other one in this section, but someone mentioned that wallco NHL system thing. I thought it was somewhat interesting and not nearly as obnoxiously retarded as Martingale-type things.

That said I do agree with you 100% and wouldn't subscribe to those kinds of things, but I can understand the appeal when it comes to NHL.

**hobbesITD** · 03-02-13, 04:19 PM

Originally posted by The iron sheik

I'm not sure was it this thread or some other one in this section, but someone mentioned that wallco NHL system thing. I thought it was somewhat interesting and not nearly as obnoxiously retarded as Martingale-type things.

That said I do agree with you 100% and wouldn't subscribe to those kinds of things, but I can understand the appeal when it comes to NHL.

The Wallco hockey system is based on the premise that NHL teams typically don't win 6 games in a row. They wait for Team A to win 3 straight, then bet against Team A for games 4, 5, an 6 in increasing amounts. It's retarded.

An NHL team winning 6 games in a row is rare. An NHL team winning 6 games in a row after playing and winning 5 of those games is common. It's the same mindset as a roulette player betting on black after red hits 5 times because "black is due".

**The iron sheik** · 03-02-13, 05:07 PM

Originally posted by hobbesITD

The Wallco hockey system is based on the premise that NHL teams typically don't win 6 games in a row. They wait for Team A to win 3 straight, then bet against Team A for games 4, 5, an 6 in increasing amounts. It's retarded.

An NHL team winning 6 games in a row is rare. An NHL team winning 6 games in a row after playing and winning 5 of those games is common. It's the same mindset as a roulette player betting on black after red hits 5 times because "black is due".

Yes, and like I said I wouldn't play that.

I just think it's more sensib...no, I mean less retarded, than the mentioned Martingale(based systems of any kind). Because at least from what I understand, that wallco thing doesn't end up with you stringing yourself to the nearest lampost because you pushed 2^64 units into something. I might be wrong about that wallco thing though, but as I understand it doesn't fiddle with the wagering amounts exponentially? Sounds like you'll make under 100% just like guesstimating those same NHL games.

MD · 03-02-13, 05:11 PM

Originally posted by The iron sheik

Yes, and like I said I wouldn't play that.

I just think it's more sensib...no, I mean less retarded, than the mentioned Martingale(based systems of any kind). Because at least from what I understand, that wallco thing doesn't end up with you stringing yourself to the nearest lampost because you pushed 2^64 units into something. I might be wrong about that wallco thing though, but as I understand it doesn't fiddle with the wagering amounts exponentially? Sounds like you'll make under 100% just like guesstimating those same NHL games.

Martingale is far less retarded than gambler's fallacy, I think.

**The iron sheik** · 03-02-13, 05:20 PM

Originally posted by MD

Martingale is far less retarded than gambler's fallacy, I think.

I think they're both equally retarded

In some sense, I guess gambler's fallacy does have a lot to do with those chase systems. Hard time explaining what I mean in english, but in some sense I can understand people subscribing to hot/cold streaks in sports like hockey. Now, I don't do that and wouldn't recommend it to anyone, but I'm not entirely convinced there isn't something to be learned from past events. Meaning, when I bet on hockey I do count in past performance to some extent. That certainly isn't a chase system and I guess a bit off from what is discussed but hey...

By no means did I mean to defend that wallco system, by the way. Just to make it clear

**NunyaBidness** · 03-02-13, 05:29 PM

Originally posted by The iron sheik

I think they're both equally retarded

In some sense, I guess gambler's fallacy does have a lot to do with those chase systems. Hard time explaining what I mean in english, but in some sense I can understand people subscribing to hot/cold streaks in sports like hockey. Now, I don't do that and wouldn't recommend it to anyone, but I'm not entirely convinced there isn't something to be learned from past events. Meaning, when I bet on hockey I do count in past performance to some extent. That certainly isn't a chase system and I guess a bit off from what is discussed but hey...

By no means did I mean to defend that wallco system, by the way. Just to make it clear

The problem is nobody is doing the math.

If someone was to say, "I have a theory that NHL teams who lose three games in a row become undervalued due to either the public undervaluing them or increased motivation." and then compared the data to see if that held true, there might be something there. Every sports bettor has opinions, very few do any research to back it up.

And valuable data sets like this do exist all over the place. Some of them are so easy and obvious I don't know why the market hasn't corrected for them.

**Beelzebubzy** · 03-03-13, 08:51 PM

SBR Forum - Sports Betting Talk - Sportsbook Review Forum

http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/26617-overbets-line-changes-kelly-spreadsheet.html

Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.

Not sure if this has been posted recently.

**PunisherIND** · 03-13-13, 02:18 PM

Argentina's Jorge Bergoglio is the new pope.

**Sacrelicious** · 03-13-13, 02:30 PM

**Grabaka** · 03-13-13, 02:32 PM

Penetrating Nunya

**Grabaka** · 03-13-13, 02:32 PM

Ha just joking maestro

**Vaughany** · 03-13-13, 02:38 PM

None of those come closer to the Gaberz System.

**PunisherIND** · 03-13-13, 02:54 PM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

Argentina's Jorge Bergoglio is the new pope.

the line for this dude was 80-1

**Grabaka** · 03-13-13, 03:06 PM

Wow Argentinian and pope. What else can go wrong for this dude? is he black?

**Grabaka** · 03-13-13, 03:11 PM

Just joking fellas. Its from a joke well known in Mex. Grabaka likes everyone equally.

**NunyaBidness** · 03-13-13, 03:18 PM

Told you guys all the value was on the NOT lines.

Got in on Not Turkson, but thats it.

**PunisherIND** · 03-13-13, 03:32 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Told you guys all the value was on the NOT lines.

Got in on Not Turkson, but thats it.

shoulda listened

**Vaughany** · 03-13-13, 03:44 PM

Originally posted by Grabaka

Wow Argentinian and pope. What else can go wrong for this dude? is he black?

lol I liked it

**Sacrelicious** · 03-13-13, 03:56 PM

Originally posted by Grabaka

Wow Argentinian and pope. What else can go wrong for this dude? is he black?

MD · 03-13-13, 05:52 PM

I just took Ross Pearson -290.

Thoughts on how the line will move, guys? Not sure if I feel square or not. I really can't see the public backing Couture, but I wouldn't be too surprised to see the line improve a little bit in the future.

**Sacrelicious** · 03-13-13, 05:56 PM

-400 now. I'd be shocked if it got any better then -300.

**Vaughany** · 03-13-13, 05:58 PM

Wnt from -250 or -275 to -333 on Paddypower didnt it, expect to see same elsewhere

**Grabaka** · 03-13-13, 06:02 PM

Originally posted by Sacrelicious

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 03-13-13, 06:10 PM

Originally posted by Grabaka

Wow Argentinian and pope. What else can go wrong for this dude? is he black?

**Vaughany** · 03-13-13, 06:12 PM

Originally posted by Grabaka

Just joking fellas. Its from a joke well known in Mex. Grabaka likes everyone equally.

ha reminded me of this...

**Boxscout** · 03-13-13, 06:14 PM

So, is it safe to assume the Argentinean cheated somehow? Hand of God 2.0?