Nunya's Completely Unrelated to MMA betting Value Bus.

[NunyaBidness]

Lots of value in the political markets open right now if you're a believer in market efficiency.

at 5dimes:
Will Obama win 3rd debate -190 (fair price -200)
Democratic President + Democratic Senate + Republican house NO +100 (fair price -166)
Democratic President + Republican Senate + Republican House Yes +1950 (fair price +669)

[NunyaBidness]

Also:
Obama to win Virgina +140 5dimes +130 Bodog
Obama to win Pennsylvania -360 Sportsbook
Romney to win Wisconsin Bodog +275
Romney to win Ohio +195 Bodog (arbable at many places)
Romney to win New Hampshire +150 Bodog, +140 Sportsbook, +135 5dimes


No guarantee any of these win or BTCL, but are all beating the wider market right now.

[PunisherIND]

how are you coming up with the "fair price"?

[PunisherIND]

Also:
Obama to win Virgina +140 5Dimes +130 Bodog
Obama to win Pennsylvania -360 Sportsbook
Romney to win Wisconsin bodog +275
Romney to win Ohio +195 Bodog (arbable at many places)
Romney to win New Hampshire +150 Bodog, +140 Sportsbook, +135 5dimes


No guarantee any of these win or BTCL, but are all beating the wider market right now.

many thanks nunya

wisco is arbable as well

[PunisherIND]

florida

5dimes barack wins +280
bovada romney wins -215

[NunyaBidness]

how are you coming up with the "fair price"?

Prediction markets.

[NunyaBidness]

florida

5dimes barack wins +280
bovada romney wins -215

Interestingly enough, both sides should have value there. (besides the arb I mean)

[PunisherIND]

obama to win colorado +120 on 5d

i think theres some value there

[Grabaka]

Shit! Bodog started redirecting me to their Chinese site so i took my money out. Now i miss it badly. I need me an awfully slow book.

[NunyaBidness]

I'm on Colorado/Obama at -130, wish I wasn't now. If you believe 538 Colorado is value to -112, if you believe the market you need +125ish.

[NunyaBidness]

Shit! Bodog started redirecting me to their Chinese site so i took my money out. Now i miss it badly. I need me an awfully slow book.

Are you in China? I thought you were in Mexico?

[Vaughany]

florida

5dimes barack wins +280
bovada romney wins -215

I can get ROmney at -200 on WH. How long till the result though? Dont wanna have funds tied up for months!

[NunyaBidness]

Nov 6, homey.

[PunisherIND]

I'm on Colorado/Obama at -130, wish I wasn't now. If you believe 538 Colorado is value to -112, if you believe the market you need +125ish.

i've only been using 538.

where do you get this market data?

[Vaughany]

many thanks nunya

wisco is arbable as well

Republican to win Wisconsin is +300 to +350 range on Euro books, while Democrat -210 on Sportbet...Quite a big difference...Sportingbet have Democrat at -600!

[PunisherIND]

I can get ROmney at -200 on WH. How long till the result though? Dont wanna have funds tied up for months!

yea, wont be tied up too long. make yourself some free money!

[Vaughany]

Nov 6, homey.

Cool, for all of them? (or at least around tht date)?

[Vaughany]

yea, wont be tied up too long. make yourself some free money!

yea might as well...tho will be squids as Eurobooks will have it limited to £25 or sumin!

[PunisherIND]

Republican to win Wisconsin is +300 to +350 range on Euro books, while Democrat -210 on Sportbet...Quite a big difference...Sportingbet have Democrat at -600!

wow. easy money.

[PunisherIND]

Cool, for all of them? (or at least around tht date)?

all of them

[NunyaBidness]

i've only been using 538.

where do you get this market data?

Was really tempted to LMGTFY, but decided to be nice.

http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/index.cfm

http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/

http://www.ideosphere.com/

538 is good for analysis, but he doesn't release how his model works, and his numbers always seem to be skewed to the left.

[NunyaBidness]

And for the lowest of rollers, Not Obama is at +260 at the SBR books. Fair line is +150

[PunisherIND]

Was really tempted to LMGTFY, but decided to be nice.

http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/index.cfm

http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/

http://www.ideosphere.com/

538 is good for analysis, but he doesn't release how his model works, and his numbers always seem to be skewed to the left.

lol thanks

[Vaughany]

wow. easy money.

Is ur limit on sportbet/5dimes $100 for these

[Vaughany]

And for the lowest of rollers, Not Obama is at +260 at the SBR books. Fair line is +150

Should know by now there are no low rollers in the MMA forum brah! All big timerz pickin winnerz for sheazy

[NunyaBidness]

Is ur limit on sportbet/5dimes $100 for these

I'm at $50 for these, same as my reduced juice limits.

[Grabaka]

Are you in China? I thought you were in Mexico?

Yes i am in Mexico. But last week suddenly bodog redireted me to the chinese site (it has english version but i found it shady) So I contact them and they say its fine that will be my new Bodog...like wth? So i asked them to send my bankroll which they already did. Maybe i go back in one day but i need to research about it.

[PunisherIND]

Is ur limit on sportbet/5dimes $100 for these

yea

[Vaughany]

I'm at $50 for these, same as my reduced juice limits.

Oh right, and I thought I had it bad at $100

[PunisherIND]

I'm at $50 for these, same as my reduced juice limits.

braggart

[PunisherIND]

nfl props

5dimes - stafford throws an INT @ -160
bovada - stafford does not throw an INT @ +200

[Grabaka]

Republican in New Hampshire is @ +175 on Betfair.

[Grabaka]

yea might as well...tho will be squids as Eurobooks will have it limited to £25 or sumin!

£13.5 brah....just checked
Throw some moneys at betfair...since its trade youll never get limited

[PunisherIND]

i think we should keep this thread going for non-mma related wagers. however, no gabes allowed. guy will flood the thread with 20 pages of joe tsonga parlays.

[NunyaBidness]

i think we should keep this thread going for non-mma related wagers. however, no gabes allowed. guy will flood the thread with 20 pages of joe tsonga parlays.

You're right, I should've locked it to pros only, keep the riff raff out.