Nunya's Completely Unrelated to MMA betting Value Bus.

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  • NunyaBidness
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 07-26-09
    • 9345

    #1
    Nunya's Completely Unrelated to MMA betting Value Bus.
    Lots of value in the political markets open right now if you're a believer in market efficiency.

    at 5dimes:
    Will Obama win 3rd debate -190 (fair price -200)
    Democratic President + Democratic Senate + Republican house NO +100 (fair price -166)
    Democratic President + Republican Senate + Republican House Yes +1950 (fair price +669)
  • NunyaBidness
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 07-26-09
    • 9345

    #2
    Also:
    Obama to win Virgina +140 5dimes +130 Bodog
    Obama to win Pennsylvania -360 Sportsbook
    Romney to win Wisconsin Bodog +275
    Romney to win Ohio +195 Bodog (arbable at many places)
    Romney to win New Hampshire +150 Bodog, +140 Sportsbook, +135 5dimes


    No guarantee any of these win or BTCL, but are all beating the wider market right now.
    Comment
    • PunisherIND
      SBR MVP
      • 02-24-11
      • 4983

      #3
      how are you coming up with the "fair price"?
      Comment
      • PunisherIND
        SBR MVP
        • 02-24-11
        • 4983

        #4
        Originally posted by NunyaBidness
        Also:
        Obama to win Virgina +140 5Dimes +130 Bodog
        Obama to win Pennsylvania -360 Sportsbook
        Romney to win Wisconsin bodog +275
        Romney to win Ohio +195 Bodog (arbable at many places)
        Romney to win New Hampshire +150 Bodog, +140 Sportsbook, +135 5dimes


        No guarantee any of these win or BTCL, but are all beating the wider market right now.

        many thanks nunya

        wisco is arbable as well
        Comment
        • PunisherIND
          SBR MVP
          • 02-24-11
          • 4983

          #5
          florida

          5dimes barack wins +280
          bovada romney wins -215
          Comment
          • NunyaBidness
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 07-26-09
            • 9345

            #6
            Originally posted by PunisherIND
            how are you coming up with the "fair price"?
            Prediction markets.
            Comment
            • NunyaBidness
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 07-26-09
              • 9345

              #7
              Originally posted by PunisherIND
              florida

              5dimes barack wins +280
              bovada romney wins -215
              Interestingly enough, both sides should have value there. (besides the arb I mean)
              Comment
              • PunisherIND
                SBR MVP
                • 02-24-11
                • 4983

                #8
                obama to win colorado +120 on 5d

                i think theres some value there
                Comment
                • Grabaka
                  SBR MVP
                  • 02-19-11
                  • 3216

                  #9
                  Shit! Bodog started redirecting me to their Chinese site so i took my money out. Now i miss it badly. I need me an awfully slow book.
                  Comment
                  • NunyaBidness
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 07-26-09
                    • 9345

                    #10
                    I'm on Colorado/Obama at -130, wish I wasn't now. If you believe 538 Colorado is value to -112, if you believe the market you need +125ish.
                    Comment
                    • NunyaBidness
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 07-26-09
                      • 9345

                      #11
                      Originally posted by Grabaka
                      Shit! Bodog started redirecting me to their Chinese site so i took my money out. Now i miss it badly. I need me an awfully slow book.
                      Are you in China? I thought you were in Mexico?
                      Comment
                      • Vaughany
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 03-07-10
                        • 45563

                        #12
                        Originally posted by PunisherIND
                        florida

                        5dimes barack wins +280
                        bovada romney wins -215
                        I can get ROmney at -200 on WH. How long till the result though? Dont wanna have funds tied up for months!
                        Comment
                        • NunyaBidness
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 07-26-09
                          • 9345

                          #13
                          Nov 6, homey.
                          Comment
                          • PunisherIND
                            SBR MVP
                            • 02-24-11
                            • 4983

                            #14
                            Originally posted by NunyaBidness
                            I'm on Colorado/Obama at -130, wish I wasn't now. If you believe 538 Colorado is value to -112, if you believe the market you need +125ish.
                            i've only been using 538.

                            where do you get this market data?
                            Comment
                            • Vaughany
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 03-07-10
                              • 45563

                              #15
                              Originally posted by PunisherIND
                              many thanks nunya

                              wisco is arbable as well
                              Republican to win Wisconsin is +300 to +350 range on Euro books, while Democrat -210 on Sportbet...Quite a big difference...Sportingbet have Democrat at -600!
                              Comment
                              • PunisherIND
                                SBR MVP
                                • 02-24-11
                                • 4983

                                #16
                                Originally posted by Vaughany
                                I can get ROmney at -200 on WH. How long till the result though? Dont wanna have funds tied up for months!
                                yea, wont be tied up too long. make yourself some free money!
                                Comment
                                • Vaughany
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 03-07-10
                                  • 45563

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by NunyaBidness
                                  Nov 6, homey.
                                  Cool, for all of them? (or at least around tht date)?
                                  Comment
                                  • Vaughany
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 03-07-10
                                    • 45563

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by PunisherIND
                                    yea, wont be tied up too long. make yourself some free money!
                                    yea might as well...tho will be squids as Eurobooks will have it limited to £25 or sumin!
                                    Comment
                                    • PunisherIND
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 02-24-11
                                      • 4983

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by Vaughany
                                      Republican to win Wisconsin is +300 to +350 range on Euro books, while Democrat -210 on Sportbet...Quite a big difference...Sportingbet have Democrat at -600!
                                      wow. easy money.
                                      Comment
                                      • PunisherIND
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 02-24-11
                                        • 4983

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by Vaughany
                                        Cool, for all of them? (or at least around tht date)?
                                        all of them
                                        Comment
                                        • NunyaBidness
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 07-26-09
                                          • 9345

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by PunisherIND
                                          i've only been using 538.

                                          where do you get this market data?
                                          Was really tempted to LMGTFY, but decided to be nice.





                                          538 is good for analysis, but he doesn't release how his model works, and his numbers always seem to be skewed to the left.
                                          Comment
                                          • NunyaBidness
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 07-26-09
                                            • 9345

                                            #22
                                            And for the lowest of rollers, Not Obama is at +260 at the SBR books. Fair line is +150
                                            Comment
                                            • PunisherIND
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 02-24-11
                                              • 4983

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by NunyaBidness
                                              Was really tempted to LMGTFY, but decided to be nice.





                                              538 is good for analysis, but he doesn't release how his model works, and his numbers always seem to be skewed to the left.
                                              lol thanks
                                              Comment
                                              • Vaughany
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 03-07-10
                                                • 45563

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by PunisherIND
                                                wow. easy money.
                                                Is ur limit on sportbet/5dimes $100 for these
                                                Comment
                                                • Vaughany
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 03-07-10
                                                  • 45563

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by NunyaBidness
                                                  And for the lowest of rollers, Not Obama is at +260 at the SBR books. Fair line is +150
                                                  Should know by now there are no low rollers in the MMA forum brah! All big timerz pickin winnerz for sheazy
                                                  Comment
                                                  • NunyaBidness
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 07-26-09
                                                    • 9345

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by Vaughany
                                                    Is ur limit on sportbet/5dimes $100 for these
                                                    I'm at $50 for these, same as my reduced juice limits.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Grabaka
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 02-19-11
                                                      • 3216

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by NunyaBidness
                                                      Are you in China? I thought you were in Mexico?
                                                      Yes i am in Mexico. But last week suddenly bodog redireted me to the chinese site (it has english version but i found it shady) So I contact them and they say its fine that will be my new Bodog...like wth? So i asked them to send my bankroll which they already did. Maybe i go back in one day but i need to research about it.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • PunisherIND
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 02-24-11
                                                        • 4983

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by Vaughany
                                                        Is ur limit on sportbet/5dimes $100 for these
                                                        yea
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Vaughany
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 03-07-10
                                                          • 45563

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by NunyaBidness
                                                          I'm at $50 for these, same as my reduced juice limits.
                                                          Oh right, and I thought I had it bad at $100
                                                          Comment
                                                          • PunisherIND
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 02-24-11
                                                            • 4983

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by NunyaBidness
                                                            I'm at $50 for these, same as my reduced juice limits.
                                                            braggart
                                                            Comment
                                                            • PunisherIND
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 02-24-11
                                                              • 4983

                                                              #31
                                                              nfl props

                                                              5dimes - stafford throws an INT @ -160
                                                              bovada - stafford does not throw an INT @ +200
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Grabaka
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 02-19-11
                                                                • 3216

                                                                #32
                                                                Republican in New Hampshire is @ +175 on Betfair.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Grabaka
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 02-19-11
                                                                  • 3216

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by Vaughany
                                                                  yea might as well...tho will be squids as Eurobooks will have it limited to £25 or sumin!
                                                                  £13.5 brah....just checked
                                                                  Throw some moneys at betfair...since its trade youll never get limited
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • PunisherIND
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 02-24-11
                                                                    • 4983

                                                                    #34
                                                                    i think we should keep this thread going for non-mma related wagers. however, no gabes allowed. guy will flood the thread with 20 pages of joe tsonga parlays.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • NunyaBidness
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 07-26-09
                                                                      • 9345

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by PunisherIND
                                                                      i think we should keep this thread going for non-mma related wagers. however, no gabes allowed. guy will flood the thread with 20 pages of joe tsonga parlays.
                                                                      You're right, I should've locked it to pros only, keep the riff raff out.
                                                                      Comment
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