Argo, wow. Lost the director upset but I actually made almost as much money tonight then I did yesterday on highly researched MMA bets using 20 minutes of basic research? This is absurd. Good lord this is a value goldmine, I'll be hitting this hard next year.
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No shit!
WWE has been very kind to me as well, hilarious stuff.Comment -
Still think theres value in Turkston?Comment -
What about the papal contendership nunya? I would imagine betting on this is some kind of blasphemy so i would like to have a little action there.Comment -
+38.04 units in posted plays.
Actually won considerably more as I took the "Not all 6 top favorites" bet that I posted in the thread to win 5u as well, and then poured everything I could on Lincoln until the cutoff.
Basically won all of my decent size bets and lost the small ones. Guess if I can't pound it, I shouldn't bet it.
Hope everybody made money.Comment -
Outrageous. Congrats man.
Now that I know there is value here, next year I am going to be on this like a goddamn hawk. Appreciate the posts and insights, and thank you for the best makeup bet.Comment -
Thanks my dude! Netted about 17 units here. Great last minute call on the makeup award. And that big six hedge paid off lovely for you. kudos, on the brave prediction - I ended up hedging half of my bet on the field, so thanks for that too.
Out of curiosity, how do you think the books handled that tie? Do you think they paid on both winners and any "field" bets?Comment -
Thanks for the winnerz nunyaComment -
lol. wouldnt go crazy on it. like nunya said, theres a lot of back room dealings involved. fyi, last time around, arinze was a +300 favorite, but lost to ratzinger who was +450.
personally, i have equal plays on turkson at +400 and scola at +700, and a smaller play on bertone +2000. only one im worried about now is ouellet, but i may play him closer to the close.Comment -
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i hear you man. i consider these to be a little bit of a degen bet myself. but just to support the previous point with an example, i was able to get some fantastic lines (it would appear) just by comparing the lines at pinny and paddy, with the lines at my books. i saw that the european books had scola closer to +400, so i played it at +700. bertone was around +1000 at the euros so i played him at +2000. he's +600 now. a little line comparison can go a long way! but then you also have to keep in mind, these small markets are illiquid, especially early on, so you're taking a risk even when line shopping. e.g., if you played arinze early on, say around +700, it may have seemed like a bargain since he was +300 at some books. he's currently in the +3000 range.Comment -
Nunya...i've always appreciated your posts in the MMA threads...and just discovered this gem (but not early enough to catch a few units like Sacrelicious obviously just did...hey, if anyone should SACrifice their tym to study the RELIgIOUS-political market...even if it's SACRILIgIOUS to seek profit this way...it's the guy with this username, lol)
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What books are best to have at the ready for this sort of thing...I'm non-US and have all the usually-usefuls (Pinny, SBO, 5dimes, matchy, betfair, b365, wHill, canbet, greek, SIA)...
seems that I should take the trouble to fund my BookMaker (I hate that they, unlike 5d and youwager, refuse to work with Skrill...so u gotta do gymnastics to get $ in and outa' there)?
Any books i don't have that are good2hav ready when a value whack-a-mole raises its head)?
I'm thinkingLast edited by fitguy67; 02-25-13, 11:11 AM.Comment -
Congrats!
I actually ended up having about 6u on brave, and then the market moved against me so I hedged half of it too. Guess pussies like us need to stick together. (Heh, probably you hedged out, I saw the line move and followed suit, you owe me $400.)
Yeah, that Waltz hedge was beautiful, although I was kicking myself a little when Waltz won right away. But my main man Ang Lee made it right for me. That was one of the best lines available of the night, hope someone tailed on it.
The tie bet should've been paid out as a 'dead heat' so both winners would've got 1/2 the expected win.Comment -
Welcome to the "hedging is for pussies" club!Comment -
Bookmaker generally doesn't have good value in these markets, they always charge the highest juice. Think we got lucky there that they gave their line adjuster the week off or something. Don't know much about the euro books as far as props. Being liquid far and wide is always your best option.Comment -
As far as the pope bets go. I'm not touching any of it.
Most silly prop bets like these have value because there is easy to understand information readily available. The books spend 5 minutes thinking up these lines, and anyone with decent knowledge of the subject can beat them. The limits are low, so there's no reason for the books to put in the kind of thought that they put into a major sports opener.
I'm not sure the knowledge exists for such a rare event as a papal election. Everything is behind closed doors, who knows what kind of deals are made. I don't think they do any polling. I think all of the movement right now is just noise, responding to this article or that article.
Once it's closer to the election, if it shows up on an exchange and gets what looks like smart inside money, then you're pretty safe.
If a book opens Not lines on any of the favorites, I would probably scoop all of them up.Comment -
Eurovision Song Contest in May boiiis. I'll have some winnerz for tht. Cascada is representing Germany, not sure if she ever got big in USA (Europop garbage) but she was huuuuuuge in Europe. She's 10/1 to win at moment, and despite her song being very average she'll finish top 3 for sure due to her name alone combined with the German diasporaComment -
i take it you're relying on 5dimes mostly then? luckily, in addition to being easily the best US-friendly book, it's also easily one of the best books PERIOD...i find i use them as much/more than pinny...on the basis of price they're a dead heat, but dimers has a big edge in variety of bets (esp MMA, where pinny has only "plain vanilla")...dimers is a viable substitute for the pinny/365 combination that's the foundation for many international playersLast edited by fitguy67; 02-25-13, 12:07 PM.Comment -
BetUS used to have lines for this, but I don't know if any other book I frequent has ever had them.
And BetUS told me on the phone that I was too good for them and that I should get a job in vegas or something, so I asked them if they wanted to hire me and they hung up.Comment -
Sportsbook changed their name to Uwin (fairly recently, i suspect)...probably accompanied by other management changes, as well...may explain what u noticed
is your ac still with Sportsbook, or has it changed to Uwin? if it has changed, i'll bet the new Uwin lines set the new tone
update: hmmm...seems the name change to Uwin may apply to everywhere/everyone except to USers, where they've kept the old name...but the change in Entertainment-based lines you noticed this year may be related to the same overhaul-project that led to the name change they applied in many/most places?Last edited by fitguy67; 02-25-13, 01:50 PM.Comment
