US Presidental Election at SBR, currently: Romney 46.7% Obama 53.3%

**RogueScholar** · 11-04-12, 07:35 PM

Originally posted by SBR_John

Sorry Rogue, I don't bother reading your stuff. Nothing personal, its just too predictable and long winded. Basically a rewrite of I'm a redneck and you're a f\*g and I'm rich and your poor so I should give you all my money and let the government take an even bigger cut and because thats just not enough let them borrow and give broke dik clowns even more so we can go totally bankrupt because its somehow good blah blah.

In other words, you surrender. I nailed you with my last post, but you'll pretend you can't be bothered to notice because you think money is the only way to keep score. I suppose I can't complain too much, because I think intelligent discourse is the only way to keep score, and we're both clinging to metrics that are heavily biased in our favor.

This response of yours is actually preferable to more of your regurgitated, right-wing non-facts. At least now people who might have thought you had a clue or even a legitimate platform from which to express an opinion on how the country should be run can see just how empty and indefensible everything you say is.

In the end, you're in the exact same boat as Romney...imagine that.

**TheMoneyShot** · 11-04-12, 07:38 PM

The US needs Romney... but we have a lot of minorities who don't know shit... that would give Obama a reacharound anywhere, anytime, and any place. Easy to sit your ass on a sofa all day and eat Doritos... ain't no jobs... because lazy ass people don't work. It's ok.. another 4 years of this poverty cry... this US will never be the same anymore... dooms day.

**d2bets** · 11-04-12, 07:40 PM

Originally posted by Fishhead

Stop with the In-trade BS.................only use Pinnacle.

Fish, I agree with you in terms of the reality of the true market, however for those who do use Intrade, the price is very real and the liquidity very good.

**d2bets** · 11-04-12, 07:41 PM

Originally posted by TheMoneyShot

The US needs Romney... but we have a lot of minorities who don't know shit... that would give Obama a reacharound anywhere, anytime, and any place. Easy to sit your ass on a sofa all day and eat Doritos... ain't no jobs... because lazy ass people don't work. It's ok.. another 4 years of this poverty cry... this US will never be the same anymore... dooms day.

Romney is not up the job. Not even close. Obama has governed admirably with an almost impossible set of scenarios facing him. Romney is an empty suit, at best.

**jwater** · 11-04-12, 07:51 PM

Just let all the polls and odds go and let the election play out. Obama's voters arent even CLOSE to as motivated as they were 4 years ago. It will be a close election. Shut up and let it play out

**SBR_John** · 11-04-12, 07:53 PM

Rouge, you are single agenda minded that's why I ignore your arguments. I don't care much about special interest groups like guns, gay marriage, abortion and spotted owls. You are probably smart enough to know you can't spend .40 more of every dollar you take in as the US is doing. I'll bet you are even smart enough to know that you slow the economy when you raise taxes. So not much to discuss. I want leaders to stop spending money we don't have and to create prosperity. I think we can both agree that's not happening under Obama.

D2bets it was your suggestion many pages back that one candidate(you thought Obama) would make a big move by the end of the week. That didn't exactly happen but I have been waiting and watching. You made a great point. This market will move well away from these prices when it becomes apparent who will win. Hasn't happened yet but I'm watching for it. I think whoever gets to 75 will offer a free ride to a 100.

**d2bets** · 11-04-12, 07:56 PM

Originally posted by SBR_John

Rouge, you are single agenda minded that's why I ignore your arguments. I don't care much about special interest groups like guns, gay marriage, abortion and spotted owls. You are probably smart enough to know you can't spend .40 more of every dollar you take in as the US is doing. I'll bet you are even smart enough to know that you slow the economy when you raise taxes. So not much to discuss. I want leaders to stop spending money we don't have and to create prosperity. I think we can both agree that's not happening under Obama.

D2bets it was your suggestion many pages back that one candidate(you thought Obama) would make a big move by the end of the week. That didn't exactly happen but I have been waiting and watching. You made a great point. This market will move well away from these prices when it becomes apparent who will win. Hasn't happened yet but I'm watching for it. I think whoever gets to 75 will offer a free ride to a 100.

John, if you're trading and watching Intrade, what do you make of the substantial gap between the Intrade market and the odds at every major sportsbook? What is the cause(s)?

**SBR_John** · 11-04-12, 08:10 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

John, if you're trading and watching Intrade, what do you make of the substantial gap between the Intrade market and the odds at every major sportsbook? What is the cause(s)?

Fish is probably better qualified to handle that question.

**CallMeChip** · 11-04-12, 08:14 PM

Originally posted by SBR_John

He hasn't won anything yet. I'm sure he would love to cancel the election.

His vote for "revenge" statement is pretty comical. I thought only losers sought revenge? The body language of Obama and his surrogates is pretty telling. They are nervous almost even desperate.

I prefer Intrade because millions of dollars have changed hands betting the race. Currently;

Trade 2012.PRES.OBAMA 1 64.2 64.3 100 64.1 3.1m -2.0
Trade 2012.PRES.ROMNEY 2 35.6 35.7 50 35.5 2.7m +1.3

John, since you are so adamantly vested in the accuracy of Intrade, I came across an article I know you will love, please read carefully.

http://www.policymic.com/articles/18163/obama-vs-romney-president-obama-will-crush-mitt-romney-according-to-intrade-market

**SBR_John** · 11-04-12, 08:23 PM

Thanks. Good article.

I do agree that no one knows. The traders who set the market in an open auction are simply reading the same tea leaves as everyone else as are the bookmakers who are setting a line. No one knows who will win until the game is played.

**d2bets** · 11-04-12, 08:38 PM

Actually that was a terrible article. Whoever write that doesn't seem to understand that Intrade's 65% is less than anywhere else and thus Intraders are actually leaning to Romney.

**mrpooh** · 11-04-12, 08:49 PM

Originally posted by SBR_John

Thanks. Good article.

I do agree that no one knows. The traders who set the market in an open auction are simply reading the same tea leaves as everyone else as are the bookmakers who are setting a line. No one knows who will win until the game is played.

But the game is already being played. You have early voting and polls. It is near half time and Obama is up 17.

**ACoochy** · 11-04-12, 09:16 PM

Originally posted by rkelly110

Working great, doesn't bother me a bit, 'cause my elected officials could give 2 shits about it.

Apparently you didn't get, I was defending you against John. Are you or are you not from Australia?
He was talking to you like you were American and set him straight.

Apologees there kelly. My bad.

Misread the context of ur previous statement.

**SBR_John** · 11-04-12, 09:22 PM

Originally posted by mrpooh

But the game is already being played. You have early voting and polls. It is near half time and Obama is up 17.

Actually he is down 10 points from his 08 pace at this point, in an election he won by 8 points. I'd say its end of 1qtr and he is up 2. Better than being down 2 but a rather thin lead. He is at the lowest level on Intrade since Oct 30th and within striking distance of that low. It's going to be close and telling yourself its over may make you feel better but doesn;t change reality.

**CallMeChip** · 11-04-12, 09:40 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

Actually that was a terrible article. Whoever write that doesn't seem to understand that Intrade's 65% is less than anywhere else and thus Intraders are actually leaning to Romney.

It's stating the facts as they pertain to Intrade stock. Trust me I'm voting for Obama. What I get from this is, Intrade's numbers have predicted the election and every state's electoral votes since 2004, and been right every single time. Therefore whoever they claim is in the lead above 50%, will win the election. The fact that Obama is at 65% all but declares Obama the winner hands down without dispute.

I say all but because obviously there is no such thing as a sure thing. For the logic of the universe you are required to say there's always a slim chance. According to this system of prediction and it's track record, the chances for Romney to really win sit somewhere between 1-3%, which is a marginally realistic chance for the GOP, i.e. it would be practically futile to think they are going to win.

**SBR_John** · 11-04-12, 10:28 PM

Yes but Chip the final Intrade prediction is not set but rather in progress. It doesn't have any predictive power mid market. You need to put off the Intrade predictive party until Tuesday morning,,,it may be predicting a Romney victory by then.

**CallMeChip** · 11-04-12, 11:07 PM

Originally posted by SBR_John

Yes but Chip the final Intrade prediction is not set but rather in progress. It doesn't have any predictive power mid market. You need to put off the Intrade predictive party until Tuesday morning,,,it may be predicting a Romney victory by then.

Ha that's why it's a futures market, it's only useful for prediction. I put a 30 point swing in less than 72 hours in that 1-3% marginally realistic window, but I like your enthusiasm in the face of adversity.

**beanbag** · 11-05-12, 06:38 AM

Obama easy win.. put your house on it.

**Fishhead** · 11-05-12, 09:34 AM

Originally posted by beanbag

Obama easy win.. put your house on it.

Many would, but 80% of the citizens of this country lost their house under the last GOP presidency.

**eastern2** · 11-05-12, 09:48 AM

Originally posted by SBR_John

Obama Last Trade : 64.1 DOWN 2.0
Probably not the time frame you want to see your boy in a free fall. I predict Obama will touch 60 by tomorrow night. By election day it will be 55.

Or it won't

**TC Woods** · 11-05-12, 10:35 AM

Originally posted by Fishhead

Many would, but 80% of the citizens of this country lost their house under the last GOP presidency.

Key words being "GOP presidency"

**King Mayan** · 11-05-12, 11:08 AM

Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012

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67.2%
CHANCE
Last prediction was: $6.72 / share
Today's Change: +$0.14 (+2.1%)
Contract Type: 0-100

**Fishhead** · 11-05-12, 11:16 AM

Originally posted by King Mayan

Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012

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67.2%
CHANCE
Last prediction was: $6.72 / share
Today's Change: +$0.14 (+2.1%)
Contract Type: 0-100

Romnesia +363 at Pinny

**thetrinity** · 11-05-12, 01:00 PM

lol at thinking intrade is sharper then pinnacle, thats like saying the redneck valley dispatch is more important then the new york times

**mrpooh** · 11-05-12, 02:22 PM

Obama just kicked a field goal, up 20 early in the 3rd.

**SBR_John** · 11-05-12, 02:31 PM

Yeaaa I'm starting to raise the white flag. Obama is a terrible president but a nasty good politician. I give Romney a lot of credit for his effort. Hopefully after tomorrow both sides can give a little and we can work together to cut the deficit and focus on economic growth.

**CDMKMP** · 11-05-12, 02:40 PM

The delusion in this thread is pretty amusing.

Obama wins tomorrow using any reputable analysis. This isn't a national election, it is 50 state-by-state elections that matter. Popular vote may be close but that means nothing for getting 270 electoral votes.

Unless you believe there is systemic bias in every single state poll this election cycle, in which case I have a bridge to sell.

**King Mayan** · 11-05-12, 02:51 PM

Originally posted by SBR_John

Yeaaa I'm starting to raise the white flag. Obama is a terrible president but a nasty good politician. I give Romney a lot of credit for his effort. Hopefully after tomorrow both sides can give a little and we can work together to cut the deficit and focus on economic growth.

Romney can still win, John... I wouldn't be surprised if he did..

**dogkatcher** · 11-05-12, 04:10 PM

Someone post "Obama's A LOCK", we know what will happen then.

**GunShard** · 11-05-12, 04:17 PM

Why Obama will win:
1. Gay rights to marriage.
2. Women rights to an abortion.
3. Black voters will vote Obama simply for being black. America's negative history of segregation and slavery.
4. Tax the rich. Cut taxes on the middle class.
5. Finally ending the 10 years of 2 wars which has been financially draining to America.
6.
Obama's 21 million Twitter followers. https://twitter.com/BarackObama
Obama's 31 million likes on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/barackobama
Romney's 1.4 million Twitter followers. https://twitter.com/MittRomney
Romney's 10 million likes on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/mittromney
Clicking Like and Follow is similar to pushing Vote at the polls.

**Domer** · 11-05-12, 06:01 PM

Originally posted by thetrinity

lol at thinking intrade is sharper then pinnacle, thats like saying the redneck valley dispatch is more important then the new york times

one being "sharper" than the other is stupid. if you're betting on obama on pinnacle, you're a total buffoon when intrade is available. plus, pinnacle is a drop in the bucket compared to intrade.

tens of millions will trade on intrade in the next 24 hours.

**SBR_John** · 11-05-12, 06:04 PM

Absolutely insane price movement the past 2 hours. Obama Session lo/hi 65.1 - 70.4 ...currently right in the middle at 67.6. Might just be profit taking but down 3 in the past hour giving the Romney fateful a slimmer of hope.

Pinnacle was at Romney +368 an hour ago, now at +310.

**Living The Dream** · 11-05-12, 08:02 PM

I think we are going to have another Bush/Gore election. Every poll I have seen on the news tonight either shows a dead heat or a Romney 1% lead... This is going to be close either way..

**Wrigley** · 11-05-12, 08:28 PM

Originally posted by Living The Dream

I think we are going to have another Bush/Gore election. Every poll I have seen on the news tonight either shows a dead heat or a Romney 1% lead... This is going to be close either way..

I dont think it is close at all in electoral just fill in yourself courtesy LA times hard to get Romney to 270

Predict a winner: Battleground states - Los Angeles Times

http://graphics.latimes.com/2012-election-electoral-map/

The 2012 presidential election is likely to be decided by voters in a small number of swing states. The Times has identified these states in play  shown below in gray  based on polling data and other factors, and we'll update the list from time to time as polls shift. Click a state until it turns to your choice: Democratic, Republican or back to contested. See which combinations lead a candidate to the 270 electoral votes needed to claim the White House.

**SBR_John** · 11-05-12, 08:47 PM

Originally posted by Wrigley

I dont think it is close at all in electoral just fill in yourself courtesy LA times hard to get Romney to 270
http://graphics.latimes.com/2012-ele...electoral-map/

There are several ways to get to 270 WITHOUT Ohio. But i should first say I too believe whoever wins Ohio is the winner. However Romney could still get there by winning Iowa, Colo and Wisconsin. Of course he needs to bring home his alight leans in NC, FL and VA. It's an unlikely course but it is realistic.

Obama has to sweat the quiet majority, the same group that swept in Bush over Kerry. For example a loss in Pennsylvania and its curtains on the Obama express. A loss in Ohio would also be nearly impossible to overcome.