I Have Called Off Contest With Nicky and LT

[Nicky Santoro]

It closed at +185 at the book you bet it, idiot. You're the one that said you beat EVERY closing number. And waiting until the close to bet big dogs is hardly advanced handicapping. It's one of the first things anyone with half of a brain learns.

monkey faggot, when i saw line early morning, i laughed.. it was +150 edm.. i knew that line would close around +185.. and i got it at that.. can you do this monkeyfag? i can read lines way better than you.

when OLY closes at +160, to me, this counts alot.. i will take +183 vs an OLY +1650 any day of the year, including you..

now run along monkeyfag, it's past your bedtime..

[Deuce]

Why can't you girls agree here? Its a matter of +181 and +183. Unfukkinreal.

[DeluxeLiner]

I am impartial... I like both of these guys.

I think that the two parties can reach a compromise if there is an adjustment to the rules since it seems that SBRLines feed does not receive ALL price changes, which does damage the integrity of the contest.

Nicky agreed to the rules, and to the use of SBRLines because he believed SBRLines would be picking up all up to the minute quick line changes. Since this is a battle of two experienced cappers, both parties realize that every point does matter. LT does have a point in saying that the rules did stipulate that SBRLines was to be used, he is indeed correct on that point. What, I believe is being misunderstood is that Nicky was playing the contest under false pretenses. I think that both LT and Nicky would agree that neither party cares if a side was bought by the individual, but what the price was when the post was made. Lets give Nicky the benefit of the doubt that he was indeed posting the true lines of Pinnacle, at the time he posted and since he believed that SBRLines was up to date that it would represent the price he bought. The integrity of the contest is thus compromised because the point was to determine who was the better capper. A major aspect in capping is finding the best price, and getting it while the getting is still good. If SBRLines is not giving accurate information (stale lines) then this contest is not fair to either capper.

That is just my take. I can see that their are two legit claims to this conflict and that neither side want's to be "taken".

I do agree with a previous poster that if a neutral party could judge the contest, this would be beneficial to both LT and Nicky. I also believe that a new set of rules should be created to deal with the problem that has developed, so that hopefully the neutral party will not even have to become involved.

[onthewhat]

I am impartial... I like both of these guys.

I think that the two parties can reach a compromise if there is an adjustment to the rules since it seems that SBRLines feed does not receive ALL price changes, which does damage the integrity of the contest.

Nicky agreed to the rules, and to the use of SBRLines because he believed SBRLines would be picking up all up to the minute quick line changes. Since this is a battle of two experienced cappers, both parties realize that every point does matter. LT does have a point in saying that the rules did stipulate that SBRLines was to be used, he is indeed correct on that point. What, I believe is being misunderstood is that Nicky was playing the contest under false pretenses. I think that both LT and Nicky would agree that neither party cares if a side was bought by the individual, but what the price was when the post was made. Lets give Nicky the benefit of the doubt that he was indeed posting the true lines of Pinnacle, at the time he posted and since he believed that SBRLines was up to date that it would represent the price he bought. The integrity of the contest is thus compromised because the point was to determine who was the better capper. A major aspect in capping is finding the best price, and getting it while the getting is still good. If SBRLines is not giving accurate information (stale lines) then this contest is not fair to either capper.

That is just my take. I can see that their are two legit claims to this conflict and that neither side want's to be "taken".

I do agree with a previous poster that if a neutral party could judge the contest, this would be beneficial to both LT and Nicky. I also believe that a new set of rules should be created to deal with the problem that has developed, so that hopefully the neutral party will not even have to become involved.

best post in the entire fukkin thread

[MonkeyF0cker]

monkey faggot, when i saw line early morning, i laughed.. it was +150 edm.. i knew that line would close around +185.. and i got it at that.. can you do this monkeyfag? i can read lines way better than you.

when OLY closes at +160, to me, this counts alot.. i will take +183 vs an OLY +1650 any day of the year, including you..

now run along monkeyfag, it's past your bedtime..

Uhh. I do it every day, moron. AGAIN, you're the one that claimed you beat EVERY closing number "by a lot." You're so fvcking thick you can't even admit you're full of shit when you are confronted with FACT. And yeah, go ahead and compare with Oly's 20 cent lines, that's almost indicative of anything. Fvcking idiot.

[Nicky Santoro]

monkeyfag, did you cash in that EDM win today? i will bet you had it at EDM +150.. lol


monkey, you are a big jerk..

it's killing you huh.. it's killing you that i knew EDM this morning at +150 was way way off and i'd wait till game time to get it at +183 and i did... i guess i handicapped the game pretty good,huh?

it's killing you, huh? lol

monkeyfag, i feel sorry for you.. you are one bitter guy..

congratulations on cashing in your EDM +150 ticket today

[daggerkobe]

Monkeyfag is probably angry that the drink he spiked with date rape drug didn't work at the porn set and had to go home and spank monkeyfag jr to DVD of Vegas shemales.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Actually, I scalped the game, but thanks for your concern. Get your head outta the clouds, dumbass. You're nothing. One game. LOL.

[daggerkobe]

I am impartial... I like both of these guys.

I think that the two parties can reach a compromise if there is an adjustment to the rules since it seems that SBRLines feed does not receive ALL price changes, which does damage the integrity of the contest.

Nicky agreed to the rules, and to the use of SBRLines because he believed SBRLines would be picking up all up to the minute quick line changes. Since this is a battle of two experienced cappers, both parties realize that every point does matter. LT does have a point in saying that the rules did stipulate that SBRLines was to be used, he is indeed correct on that point. What, I believe is being misunderstood is that Nicky was playing the contest under false pretenses. I think that both LT and Nicky would agree that neither party cares if a side was bought by the individual, but what the price was when the post was made. Lets give Nicky the benefit of the doubt that he was indeed posting the true lines of Pinnacle, at the time he posted and since he believed that SBRLines was up to date that it would represent the price he bought. The integrity of the contest is thus compromised because the point was to determine who was the better capper. A major aspect in capping is finding the best price, and getting it while the getting is still good. If SBRLines is not giving accurate information (stale lines) then this contest is not fair to either capper.

Did you even read the rule in question?

5 - Available Books are Pinnacle, 5 Dimes and BetJamaica only. Line and book should be posted with each selection, and tiimestamp will be used to verify lines at SBRLines.


Where in there does it state that SBRLines would be used for more than just to "verify" lines? What happens if a line can't be verified? It doesn't say. It is so poorly written, it's missing the entire "then" of an if-then scenario.

LT is so stupid he thinks it means "SBRLines are final"..... which is completely false. He just wants out of the contest in the worst way so he is misinterpreting it to bawk bawk bawk out of it ASAP.

[DeluxeLiner]

I did read the rule in question. Did you even understand my post?

SBRLines, can not verify lines accurately. That is part of my point. I agree with you.

[daggerkobe]

LT does have a point in saying that the rules did stipulate that SBRLines was to be used, he is indeed correct on that point.

No, he did NOT. That's my point.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Look up the meaning of the word verify, idiot.

[DeluxeLiner]

All I said is that SBRLines was to be used...in order to verify the legitimacy of the lines posted by LT and Nicky. SBRLines is not giving the accurate information on price changes, so it can not be used to verify the correct prices at a precise time. The understood idea was that SBRLines could always verify the price, which we found out it can not.

[daggerkobe]

Look up pedophile.... your picture right next to it.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Uh huh. Almost. Keep trying, idiot.

[Dazzez]

SBR NHL Odds Archives: Edmonton Oilers at New York Rangers

Pinnacle:
TIME AWAY HOME
11/10 07:01 PM +180 -190
11/10 07:02 PM +181 -196
11/10 07:04 PM +183 -201

It might not be SBR Odds, but it is the SBR odds archive.

Not sure if it matters to anyone.

[Nicky Santoro]

SBR NHL Odds Archives: Edmonton Oilers at New York Rangers

Pinnacle:
TIME AWAY HOME
11/10 07:01 PM +180 -190
11/10 07:02 PM +181 -196
11/10 07:04 PM +183 -201

It might not be SBR Odds, but it is the SBR odds archive.

Not sure if it matters to anyone.

dazzy,

good job buddy. i have no idea who you are, but great investigative work.. there you go, LT.. you still say i cheated????

[bigboydan]

SBR NHL Odds Archives: Edmonton Oilers at New York Rangers

Pinnacle:
TIME AWAY HOME
11/10 07:01 PM +180 -190
11/10 07:02 PM +181 -196
11/10 07:04 PM +183 -201

It might not be SBR Odds, but it is the SBR odds archive.

Not sure if it matters to anyone.

This play should stand then because technically it was on SBR Odds service.

[donjuan]

Nicky,

The point wasn't that you cheated but that the rules of the contest were that the line had to be verified by SBR Odds, otherwise it would make the whole competition a mess. Until this new info from Dazzez, the line SBR Odds had was +181. In light of this new information, your bet should stand at +183.

[Dark Horse]

Err... is this really six pages of 'my 0.02 cts'?

[FreeFall]

I'm pretty disgusted right now at anyone that is siding with Nicky. I also used to respect Nicky, but that is long gone. Rules are rules. Just like contracts or the lease you signed for your house you agreed to. According to the rules your line is +183. I really don't see how there is anything to discuses.

Really wanted to see this pan out, but if the first play was going to break the rules I'd hate to see this go any farther. I feel bad for people like LT, rjt, donjuan who put some much effort to try and educate the species and bring us up to a new level only to have to argue with others on the level of the high school playground.

I honestly don't know why they stay around, but I appriciate what they post.


EDIT: Nicky why not just post in the NHL Best Bet thread. XXX does a wonderful job of keeping track of weekly/ytd/daily and you can outbeat LT there.

[MonkeyF0cker]

If today's bet is any indication, he's a horrible capper. He says he knew the line on the Oilers/Rangers game would move to +185 for Edmonton but didn't take the Rangers at -160ish. Any good capper would pounce on that value and either scalp it or let it ride. They wouldn't simply wait until the close and bet the dog. They also would have found value in more than one game. Nicky is a fraud. I'm tired of hearing about him and honestly feel sorry for the idiots he's duped into thinking his shit don't stink.

[eidolon]

If today's bet is any indication, he's a horrible capper. He says he knew the line on the Oilers/Rangers game would move to +185 for Edmonton but didn't take the Rangers at -160ish. Any good capper would pounce on that value and either scalp it or let it ride. They wouldn't simply wait until the close and bet the dog. They also would have found value in more than one game. Nicky is a fraud. I'm tired of hearing about him and honestly feel sorry for the idiots he's duped into thinking his shit don't stink.

That is a very weak argument. First, they can't bet both sides of the games. Second, If he felt Edmonton was the stronger team here, why would he bet the Rangers? Sometimes the Lines are too sharp, and you have to wait them out to see if your bet is worth it. That is what he was saying.

[MonkeyF0cker]

You obviously don't understand value either. When the line moves away from a team, it doesn't mean they are stronger. Markets are efficient. Nicky got a line at less than fair value for the game. The no-vig closing number is indicative of fair value for the game. He was on the wrong side. There was no value in that line on the Oilers even though they happened to win. However, there was a great deal of value on the Rangers in the opener as the line moved 30 cents+...

[tomcarter]

You obviously don't understand value either. When the line moves away from a team, it doesn't mean they are stronger. Markets are efficient. Nicky got a line at less than fair value for the game. The no-vig closing number is indicative of fair value for the game. He was on the wrong side. There was no value in that line on the Oilers even though they happened to win. However, there was a great deal of value on the Rangers in the opener as the line moved 30 cents+...

I am confused over this statement.Could you explain this a little more,you don't think edmonton was the play with value?

[Nicky Santoro]

tommy,

let him talk.. he'll continue to bash me just so he can feel better about himself. tommy, he is pissed cause he had EDM +150, and i had it EDM +183. tommy, it was the highest price any book worldwide had it yesterday.. not even matchy came close.. matchbook never had it better than +179.. (after the 2% commission) their line was -184/+183 before commission, and that's at the peak peak peak.. it closed at +179 (before the 2% reduction again).. and OLYMPIC, which i consider an extremely sharp hockey book, had EDM +160 at close.. let him talk all he wants.. all he ever does is bash me here.. just make a search and you will see.

EDM was the right side here. that is why it opened at +145 in some places and almost every local here in mtl had it at +165 to +170 at game time..

[Matt Rain]

You obviously don't understand value either. When the line moves away from a team, it doesn't mean they are stronger. Markets are efficient. Nicky got a line at less than fair value for the game. The no-vig closing number is indicative of fair value for the game. He was on the wrong side. There was no value in that line on the Oilers even though they happened to win. However, there was a great deal of value on the Rangers in the opener as the line moved 30 cents+...

I'd normally agree, but the Rangers are a strong public team, and they're prone to Yankees/Red Sox type of late steam from people desperate for a win. Same thing applies to most Red Wings games.

Line opened at -165/+155 and matured at -170/+160 an hour before the game. IMO, that is the real "closing" number.

Thus the only way to bet the Rangers was to bet the opener, and that got you 5 cents of true no-vig value. Edmonton +183 was at least a 23-cent value.

[MonkeyF0cker]

No. Essentially, the closing number is regarded as signifying the fair value (in the percent chance that a team wins in case) for the market in question. The market dictates what the perceived value is for each team. If one side is overvalued, the market for that team will be bought up until it meets fair value. Advantage bettors are constantly looking for value in the lines currently offered. If there is a perceived inefficiency in the market (i.e. the line is not at fair value for a certain side) that bettor will take action on that side. The difference between the inefficiency in that line and fair value is deemed the edge in that particular play. In the example with Nicky's bet, the Rangers were being offered at the open in the -160's. The number closed slightly above -200 (-201 I believe). The no vig closing number was somewhere in the -190's, giving a great deal of value to an early bet on the Rangers. However, Nicky's bet on Edmonton at +183 fell below the fair value closing number and that side never had any value in the market from open to close. Therefore, it a -EV wager.

[etothep]

Rabble Rabble Rabble

[Matt Rain]

No. Essentially, the closing number is regarded as signifying the fair value (in the percent chance that a team wins in case) for the market in question. The market dictates what the perceived value is for each team. If one side is overvalued, the market for that team will be bought up until it meets fair value. Advantage bettors are constantly looking for value in the lines currently offered. If there is a perceived inefficiency in the market (i.e. the line is not at fair value for a certain side) that bettor will take action on that side. The difference between the inefficiency in that line and fair value is deemed the edge in that particular play. In the example with Nicky's bet, the Rangers were being offered at the open in the -160's. The number closed slightly above -200 (-201 I believe). The no vig closing number was somewhere in the -190's, giving a great deal of value to an early bet on the Rangers. However, Nicky's bet on Edmonton at +183 fell below the fair value closing number and that side never had any value in the market from open to close. Therefore, it a -EV wager.

I'd agree if this were a baseball game, but this is hockey - volume is much lower and markets aren't nearly *that* efficient.

[MonkeyF0cker]

I find it rather amusing how Nicky would normally agree that Pinny closers are the best judge of efficiency except when one of his bets is under scrutiny. Then it becomes Oly and locals in Montreal. You really can't make this stuff up.

[Nicky Santoro]

monkeyfag,

are you just bitter cause you got your EDM at +150??

congratulations on cashin in your EDM +150 ticket..


that line closed at +160 to +179 in every book offshore.... mostly +170 in alot of books.. but 95% of bettors had EDM +160.. i had +183 and it was the right side..

stop being so mad because you only got +150.. i knew people would be smacking the NYR line all day long cause EDM was so underpriced, i waited and waited.. and thankfully, i did..

[MonkeyF0cker]

As I already told you, pinhead, I scalped that game for a solid profit. I simply don't like frauds.

[Nicky Santoro]

yeah bullshit.. and i went 8-0 yesterday. .anyone can just say they scalped it.. but i want proof.. you are full of shit.. you dont even know how to scalp properly..

you think i believe you even knew NYR would climb all day?? yeah right..

congrats on your EDM +150 ticket.

[MonkeyF0cker]

95% of bettors had Edmonton +160? Really? So 5% of bettors, minus you, pushed the Rangers above -200, huh?