Romney futures soaring on Intrade

[mikejamm]

Went from +315 to +290 on 5Dimes. Should drop more. I played it at 315 to cover big Obama play at -180. Hedge now if u need to. Big turn around for Mit tonight.

Big turn around? Oh give me a fuk'in break! The books want your action idiots! By all means get sucked in, get sucked in real good!

[gregm]

LOL, yes lines are changing because people are pounding Rommney like idiots. Books are loving this because debates have almost no impacts on polls. So have fun tonight guys enjoying the win.
I

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/mag...?wpisrc=nl_fix

Good article. I really thought Romney did a much better job on this debate but this is looking like one of smallest jumps by a challenger in 20 years but we will see where it ends up in the morning. You have to get back to Clintons first debate with Bush or Dukakis and his numbers after the first debate to find anything comparable. Right now Romney is at the lowest point of any major candidate in the last 30 years, his favorably ratings are just dismal but he did a great job tonight, should be interesting to watch but I dont hold much hope here of him winning but we will see. Even Dukakis, Kerry/Edwards, Dole, Carter in the 1980 campaign, and Mondale were showing better numbers at this point. This country needs a third party.

[pensfan1919]

Obama is still going to win.

Romney pretty much needs to sweep the swing states, especially Ohio, and right now he is projected to lose most of them.

The nation may be split soon in terms of popular vote but the electoral math strongly favors Obama either way.

He'd have to fall apart in the majority of the swing states just for Romney to have a chance.

Obama is too strong/Romney is too weak in the deciding states-nothing else matters.

[jjgold]

Its a shame people voting for Obama
so many people want their lives controlled by govt

[wikkidinsane]

The Republican God Mitt Romney comes to take back his country. lol

[thetrinity]

Obama back to 290 on 5dimes not a surprise, romney still needs to crush the other debates.

[jjgold]

Intrade is a very very small product

basically dead

[shari91]

Its a shame people voting for Obama
so many people want their lives controlled by govt

You might want to take a look at Romney's policies - if you could even call them that - and see what he has to say.

Both of these wankers are as bad as each other. One wants to control what I do with my vagina, stop me from online gambling, make medical marijuana usage illegal, stop my access to porn... all issues he's flip flopped on repeatedly. And then there's Obama.

Next time you run. You'd do a better job than either of these dickmunches. I'll be your campaign mgr and we'll finance it all through SBR pts.

[d2bets]

Intrade is a very very small product

basically dead

Almost 3 million shares traded combined on Obama and Romney to be elected president.

[rkelly110]

Exactly Shari. Even though people think Mitt won last night, I didn't hear any specific policies from him.

He wants to hold meetings about policies, he wants to add to unemployment by cutting govt jobs, he
agreed to Obama care, but wants his name on it. If you listen closely, he said the same things as 'bama.

Continuing Reagans and Bush's policies didn't work. 'bama and Clinton's policies are working. Get the
children (Repubs) to play along and watch this country take off. I know I'm not voting for brats.

[Mr KLC]

You might want to take a look at Romney's policies - if you could even call them that - and see what he has to say.

Both of these wankers are as bad as each other. One wants to control what I do with my vagina, stop me from online gambling, make medical marijuana usage illegal, stop my access to porn... all issues he's flip flopped on repeatedly. And then there's Obama.

Next time you run. You'd do a better job than either of these dickmunches. I'll be your campaign mgr and we'll finance it all through SBR pts.

I'm sure your vagina will be safe if Romney wins, Shari.

[Joe Dogs]

I kept flipping channels from the debate to pro wrestling,lots similarities.

Actually the pro wrestling seemed more legit.

[mrpooh]

Exactly Shari. Even though people think Mitt won last night, I didn't hear any specific policies from him.

He wants to hold meetings about policies, he wants to add to unemployment by cutting govt jobs, he
agreed to Obama care, but wants his name on it. If you listen closely, he said the same things as 'bama.

Continuing Reagans and Bush's policies didn't work. 'bama and Clinton's policies are working. Get the
children (Repubs) to play along and watch this country take off. I know I'm not voting for brats.

That is the problem with debates, they aren't about facts, they are about getting the other guy to look back

[gregm]

Intrade is a very very small product

basically dead

You can look at the numbers at Betfair if you want another prediction market, Intrade is still one of the better indicators as far as prediction markets go. Markets are not always great indicators and they can be manipulated but I really havent seen any models that have given Romney much of a chance either. I would put more weight behind the markets as an indicator on this election than I would on most of the models I have seen but I dont think anyone has Romney with much of a chance. You never know what can happen with the economy or world events though, thats why you watch markets.

[RawBillyIce]

I watched the whole thing like many of you I'm sure. Only thing I really noticed about Mitt was how freakin Neurotic he is.

In any case he did ok, but nothing like the hype. Said Obama didn't look him in eye...shhht my man was cool calm and collective and def took the higher road. Unfortunatley, Politics is like a school yard fight where the members on the sidelines or around the circle want to push the contender/fighter back in and say....go get em boy ..get back in there. That is what the next 2 shall be like ... a little nastier.

In the end the numbers are stacked against ole Mitt and I think the O is calculating where it counts (In this country Electoral Votes are all that matters)

What do I know but I can't see Mitt doing much better then McCain and that was a slam dunk for the O.

so go ahead... take Romney +295 or +315. I thought about taking the Red Sox last night and stepped back and looked at what was at stake,etc,etc. Glad I took Yankees at -295

[ByeShea]

LOL, yes lines are changing because people are pounding Rommney like idiots. Books are loving this because debates have almost no impacts on polls. So have fun tonight guys enjoying the win.
I

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/mag...?wpisrc=nl_fix

http://washingtonexaminer.com/ohio-shocker-gop-closes-early-voting-gap-boosting-romney/article/2509838

Keep whistling your way past the graveyard, pal.

Nothing flimsier than September polls. When Ohio does the 180 for Romney, this race is over. (And guys like you will be the last to know)

[ByeShea]

One wants to control what I do with my vagina,

Funny, but that really didn't come up last night in the debates or even on the campaign trail. And you're not even American.

Consider STFU.

[Shafted69]

Funny, but that really didn't come up last night in the debates or even on the campaign trail. And you're not even American.

Consider STFU.

did you just wake up from a coma? obviously she wasn't referring to what Mitt flip flopped on last night, but what he has been campaigning on for the last 18 months & what mitt's buddies in the U.S. house of representatives have passed & around states with gop majority legislators. Can you say "transvaginal" or "legitimate rape" ?

i guess you're on board with the etcha-sketch express. lol

and btw get your 100 sbr points ready to pay me when Obama wins ok?

[Ghenghis Kahn]

Its a shame people voting for Obama
so many people want their lives controlled by govt

doesn't matter whether obama or romney, nothing will change...

[ByeShea]

Can you say "transvaginal" or "legitimate rape" ?

No.

and btw get your 100 sbr points ready to pay me when Obama wins ok?

You're the guy!

Obama sh*tting the sheets pal, he has no record to run on. That debate undid his whole plan.

Are you going to have to borrow points to pay me when Romney wins?

[shari91]

Funny, but that really didn't come up last night in the debates or even on the campaign trail. And you're not even American.

Consider STFU.

Uh, I think my US passport and the overseas ballot I receive every 4 years might prove you wrong on that one.

I sometimes get cranky when I look like an arse too so I see where you're coming from. It's all good.

[stevenash]

You can look at the numbers at Betfair if you want another prediction market, Intrade is still one of the better indicators as far as prediction markets go. Markets are not always great indicators and they can be manipulated but I really havent seen any models that have given Romney much of a chance either. I would put more weight behind the markets as an indicator on this election than I would on most of the models I have seen but I dont think anyone has Romney with much of a chance. You never know what can happen with the economy or world events though, thats why you watch markets.

With a few exceptions, Intrade is deadly accurate.

[ByeShea]

With a few exceptions, Intrade is deadly accurate.

Doesn't mean much until 48 hours or so before the election. Jimmy Carter led Reagan by an average of 10% across polling in early September before eventually losing a landslide. Intrade would have had him a sure winner a month before the election as well.

[stevenash]

Doesn't mean much until 48 hours or so before the election.

This is very true.
Shares that Obamacare would not get passed were trading near 80, a day before the SCOTUS voted it came crashing down.
What happens a lot at Intrade is a lot of scalping, buy low, sell high, you guys know the routine.

It was mind boggling how accurate Intrade was with last season's American Idol trading.
Flat out nailed 11 of the last 12 weeks there.
Survivor too.

[gregm]

Plummeting. Romney at 30.8% today on intrade, +335 on pinnacle. Stock market up and a good jobs report today.

If Romney comes back to win this , it will be the greatest come behind win in recent memory. As far as polling goes, Romney has the lowest numbers of any candidate after the first debate in the last 30 years. Looking at the losers of the past elections Kerry was at around 46% after the first debate, Gore was around 42.9%, Dukakis at 43%, Mondale 39.6%, Dole at 35.8%, even an extremely unpopular Bush the Elder during his second term was at 32% after the first debate.

These numbers are dismal, it looks like it is like definitely going to take something major like really poor economic news or world crisis or a major gaffe from the Obama camp for Romney to win this, but we will see.

[stevenash]

Plummeting. Romney at 30.8% today on intrade, +335 on pinnacle. Stock market up and a good jobs report today.

If Romney comes back to win this , it will be the greatest come behind win in recent memory. As far as polling goes, Romney has the lowest numbers of any candidate after the first debate in the last 30 years. Looking at the losers of the past elections Kerry was at around 46% after the first debate, Gore was around 42%, Dukakis at 42%, Mondale 39.6%, Dole at 35.8%, even an extremely unpopular Bush the Elder during his second term was at 32% after the first debate.

These numbers are dismal, it looks like it is like definitely going to take something major like really poor economic news or world crisis or a major gaffe from the Obama camp for Romney to win this, but we will see.

I hear what you are saying, Bush41 had Clinton dead to rights, until he uttered "read my lips, no new taxes"
The rest was history.

[durito]

+340 5k limit at pinny. Get at it lou.

[McBa1n]

Should be fun with 3 debates to go (including the VP one). Be very entertaining if the gloves came off (which they need to, at this point) and Biden/Ryan mixed it up. In fact, I'm hoping they go at it. A liar versus a knucklehead should provide for a hilarious outcome.

[McBa1n]

I hear what you are saying, Bush41 had Clinton dead to rights, until he uttered "read my lips, no new taxes"
The rest was history.

I thought Herbert Walker said that vs the Duke the election prior (which is why he didn't get re-elected, as memory serves me). I don't recall HW ever really having any noteworthy lead vs Clinton. I do remember Perot killing both of them, though - prior to dropping out of the race due to some political attack (and then re-entering the race and then not doing so hot in the election).
Am I wrong? I don't know - too lazy to look it up today.

[muldoon]

I hear what you are saying, Bush41 had Clinton dead to rights, until he uttered "read my lips, no new taxes"
The rest was history.

He uttered that at the RNC
]

[ByeShea]

Plummeting. Romney at 30.8% today on intrade, +335 on pinnacle. Stock market up and a good jobs report today.

So according to intrade, Obama won the debates.

And according to the Department of Labor we just had the most robust month (seriously) since 1983.

And according to the media the murdered ambassador in Libya was a Romney gaffe.

And according to polls Obama is +8% and more in Ohio, a state he won by 4% in 2008. (So not only has Obama not shed any voter support in Ohio, but he's picked sizable chunks of McCain voters - great job, O!)

-----------

Meanwhile from the realm of actual Ohio voting this is from October 4:

Ohio shocker: GOP closes early voting gap, boosting Romney

http://washingtonexaminer.com/ohio-shocker-gop-closes-early-voting-gap-boosting-romney/article/2509838

In a remarkable reversal of fortune for President Obama in Ohio, the GOP has closed the huge gap in absentee ballot requests used by early voters that favored the Democrats and the president in 2008, setting up what one state analyst said could be a Mitt Romney blowout on Election Day.

While in 2008, 33 percent of the 1,158,301 absentee ballots went to Democrats and just 19 percent to registered Republicans, a 14-point gap, this year 29 percent are being requested by Democrats and 24 percent by Republicans, a five-point gap.

[durito]

Its a shame people voting for Obama
so many people want their lives controlled by govt

You work for the gov't.

[stevenash]

He uttered that at the RNC

Correct, and my point being, one gaffe close to election day can sink a campaign.

[durito]

Correct, and my point being, one gaffe close to election day can sink a campaign.

He won that election.

[stevenash]

He won that election.

Clinton used that to his advantage against Bush in 1992 , bad example on my part.