Suicidekings 2012 NFL Thread

[suicidekings]

9/17

Broncos/Falcons Over 48.5 (-109) x1

[suicidekings]

LIVE (7-0 Falcons, 13:20 1Q):

Next to score: Broncos (-134) x2

[suicidekings]

9/17

Broncos/Falcons Over 48.5 (-109) x1

LIVE (10-0 Falcons, 1Q 9:50)

Under 56 (-106) x2

[suicidekings]

Looking for more conservative play calling for the Broncos in the ensuing drives following two INTs. Lots of running plays, eating clock.

[suicidekings]

LIVE (10-0 Falcons, 1Q 0:02, Falcons ball after DEN TO):

Falcons -9.5 (-104) x2

This game is not going to go well for Denver. The Atlanta defense is so well prepared for Manning and the Falcons will likely dominate the TOP for the rest of the game.

[suicidekings]

MNF: 1-4 (-3.85u)
YTD: 13-18 (+1.41u)

Falcons just gave up trying to score too early, despite moving the ball downfield with ease up until that point.

[suicidekings]

9/20

Giants pk (-116) x2

The Panthers took what they wanted today against a poor Saints defense after losing both games against NO last season. The Giants are a much tougher task. The Bucs were very fortunate to score 21 points off three Giants turnovers today, making it a much more competitive game than it should have been today. The Giants will be back to form next week.

9/24

Packers -3 (-123) x4

The Seahawks pulled off a big upset today against the Cowboys, aided early on by some luck from their special teams squad. The Packers got back on track last week against the Bears, and coming off a long break, I would expect them to be in top form for this game, while Seattle is unlikely to repeat their performance two weeks in a row. The look-ahead line was set at GB -5, and I'd be surprised if the line doesn't move back up over the course of the week.

Falcons ML (+152) x4

The Chargers are 2-0 on the strength of two questionable wins against the Raiders and Titans. The Raiders were a MESS in Week 1, crippled by special teams problems and missing several players due to injury. The Chargers couldn't move the ball effectively for most of the night, and relied on FGs to inch away from OAK. In Week 2, they beat up on what appears of be an extremely overvalued Titans team that's looked just atrocious in both of their first two games. So I don't really think the Chargers have shown much yet.

The Falcons have looked great in both of their games so far. Beating KC isn't a huge accomplishment, but if you watched the game and compared it to the Falcons of last season, you'd see a monumental shift in their offensive playbook under Koetter. This week, it was their defense that totally disrupted Peyton Manning and allowed them to cruise to an easy cover.

[suicidekings]

9/20

Giants pk (-116) x2

Giants ML (+144) x2

[No coincidences]

Giants ML (+144) x2

WTF was with this line movement?

Looking like a great call SK.

[suicidekings]

WTF was with this line movement?

Looking like a great call SK.

Thank you, sir

IMO, it was just an overreaction on a public game. We already knew Bradshaw wouldn't play, and Diehl & Nicks aren't worth a big line swing like that. Not that the move from -1 to +2.5 is really that significant. The Giants are stacked on the OL and at WR, as we're seeing tonight, and Manning is a guy that makes plays with what he has available. Also, you gotta love the Giants pass rush.

Unfortunately we're starting to see the weakness in the Giants secondary in the 2H...

[No coincidences]

Thank you, sir

IMO, it was just an overreaction on a public game. We already knew Bradshaw wouldn't play, and Diehl & Nicks aren't worth a big line swing like that. Not that the move from -1 to +2.5 is really that significant. The Giants are stacked on the OL and at WR, as we're seeing tonight, and Manning is a guy that makes plays with what he has available. Also, you gotta love the Giants pass rush.

Unfortunately we're starting to see the weakness in the Giants secondary in the 2H...

A move from +104 to -155 on the ML was significant. And I don't think the public was necessarily on Carolina here. Just wondering who was pounding the Panthers.

[suicidekings]

A move from +104 to -155 on the ML was significant. And I don't think the public was necessarily on Carolina here. Just wondering who was pounding the Panthers.

True.

I've stopped paying attention to public betting % entirely and give very little thought to the majority of line movements. I think RLM and betting against the public are outdated concepts that no longer have the value that they once did. Books move lines on their own, all the time, in an effort to bait bettors. When I see a line move in one direction and never reach equilibrium (buyback), especially in an efficient market like the NFL, I immediately think FAKE.

[suicidekings]

Giants pk (-116) x2
Giants ML (+144) x2

9/20: 1-0 (+4.88u)
YTD: 14-18 (+6.29u)

[No coincidences]

True.

I've stopped paying attention to public betting % entirely and give very little thought to the majority of line movements. I think RLM and betting against the public are outdated concepts that no longer have the value that they once did. Books move lines on their own, all the time, in an effort to bait bettors. When I see a line move in one direction and never reach equilibrium (buyback), especially in an efficient market like the NFL, I immediately think FAKE.

That's becoming more and more the case across the board.

Look at the Reds/Cubs game today. Reds ML dropped 40 cents as the No. 1 public play and they still won.

[suicidekings]

That's becoming more and more the case across the board.

Look at the Reds/Cubs game today. Reds ML dropped 40 cents as the No. 1 public play and they still won.

It's smart on their part. Everything runs dry eventually, and the books have taken the initiative to start trying to manipulate the public mindset, taking advantage of the "going against the public" angle and other bettor dogma.

Gotta keep evolving to win.

[suicidekings]

9/23

Packers -3 (-123) x4
Falcons ML (+152) x4

Redskins -3 (-105) x1
Jets -1 (-115) x1
Cowboys -8 (-107) x2
Colts -3 (-109) x2

[suicidekings]

Packers -3 (-123) x4
Falcons ML (+152) x4
Redskins -3 (-105) x1
Jets -1 (-115) x1
Cowboys -8 (-107) x2
Colts -3 (-109) x2

Eagles -3 (-113) x4

I thought about this game a lot today at work, and the situational factors that make Arizona appealing just aren't enough for me to go against my strong inclination to play the Eagles here. Nine turnovers in two games is not a trend that will continue for Philadelphia. Vick came into the regular season with barely any preseason snaps due to injury and the rust was very visible against Cleveland and to a lesser extent against the Ravens. Their defense has been solid so far, and the Cardinals are ranked last offensively. At the other end, Maclin being ruled out is not optimal, but also in no way surprising. I have confidence that their replacement Offensive Linemen will do their jobs well enough that Vick will be able to operate.

The outcome of this game comes down to the Eagles taking care of the football and preventing Larry Fitzgerald from repeating his performance from last year.

[suicidekings]

LIVE (9:14 1Q, 7-0 Miami):

Jets ML (+145) x2

[suicidekings]

LIVE (12:13 2Q, 7-3 Vikings)

Niners ML (-130) x4

[suicidekings]

LIVE (9:14 1Q, 7-0 Miami):

Jets -1 (-115) x1
Jets ML (+145) x2
Redskins -3 (-105) x1
Cowboys -8 (-107) x2
Colts -3 (-109) x2
Niners ML (-130) x4

1-4 (-6.67u)

Such a brutal morning... Cowboys lose on a meaningless FG in the final minute, Colts couldn't get 1 yard on what should have been their game winning drive in the redzone, settle for a FG, and then give an 80 yard bomb to Blaine Gabbert, and the Skins let RG3 get sacked 6 times. It took a missed FG in overtime by the Dolphins to keep it from being a complete disaster.

And the Eagles game is over. Hopefully they sit Vick and bring in Foles for the 2H. Fortunately the Falcons are rolling.

[No coincidences]

I have a lot on the Eagles as well. Disastrous finish to the first half. Disastrous first half in general. At least you have the Falcons to fall back on -- I have the Broncos and Chargers.

[suicidekings]

I have a lot on the Eagles as well. Disastrous finish to the first half. Disastrous first half in general. At least you have the Falcons to fall back on -- I have the Broncos and Chargers.

It's mindblowing how many times the Eagles have turned the ball over in their first 3 games. Unreal.

I actually still like the Broncos to keep the game close. I put a half unit on them on the ML at +800 after the third HOU TD just to give myself something to cheer for. Now down 10 going into the 2H, it's an attainable goal.

I really want to take the Ravens in the late game, but -2.5 is a bad line. The value lies with the Pats. Hoping for some live betting magic.

[suicidekings]

LIVE (12:40 1Q, 0-0):

Patriots ML (+171) x2

[suicidekings]

LIVE (10-0 Pats, 7:09 1Q)

Under 51.5 (+100) x1

[suicidekings]

Jets -1 (-115) x1
Jets ML (+145) x2
Redskins -3 (-105) x1
Cowboys -8 (-107) x2
Colts -3 (-109) x2
Niners ML (-130) x4
Falcons ML (+152) x4
Eagles -3 (-113) x4
Patriots ML (+171) x2
Pats/Ravens Under 51.5 (+100) x1
Packers -3 (-123) x4

2-8 (-13.03u)
YTD: 16-26 (-6.74u)

Well that was fun...

[suicidekings]

Week 4

Patriots -3.5 (-109) x2
Niners -4 (-109) x1

[suicidekings]

Week 4

Patriots -3.5 (-109) x2
Niners -4 (-109) x1

Parlay: Pats ML / Niners ML / Packers ML (3.5u to win 7u)

The Bills are weak in pass defense, and the Pats are going to be playing angry today. Welker is also looking to prove something today and has a GREAT history against the Bills. I think we're going to see the old-school mentality of Belichek and the Pats today, going for the knockout early and not letting their foot off the gas for 60 minutes.

Same story for the Packers. They're going to be focused and aggressive today in front of the Lambeau crowd. The Saints defense is too porous to stop a GB offense that now features a legit #1 RB to go along with that receiving corps. I think GB has finally bought into the importance of getting Benson going early to open up the field for Rodgers, and that should translate to longer drives, forcing the NO defense to stay on the field longer in the 1H.

The Niners are coached by a guy that HATES losing to the point that I expect him to have the team jacked up for this game. They're only travelling from Ohio, not SF, and match up very well with the Jets. Frank Gore is going to get a lot of carries today, and the Jets have been really bad against premier RBs so far this year. This is also an important game for the Niners as they have 3 home games following this one while Seattle plays 4 of their next 5 on the road and Arizona should come back to earth a bit from their impressive start.

[2daBank]

like frisco quite a bit,,i tried to convince myself to play bills all week but i couldnt do it, do think the make a gm of it and it goes over tho... pack should absolutely win but that gm has been one im scared to even think about...gl sk

[suicidekings]

like frisco quite a bit,,i tried to convince myself to play bills all week but i couldnt do it, do think the make a gm of it and it goes over tho... pack should absolutely win but that gm has been one im scared to even think about...gl sk

Thanks buddy. I think Brees should come out gunning, so I'd be surprised if Packers -6.5 or better isn't available at some point on live betting in what should be a high scoring game. I can only really justify the ML on that game though at this point.

[2daBank]

Thanks buddy. I think Brees should come out gunning, so I'd be surprised if Packers -6.5 or better isn't available at some point on live betting in what should be a high scoring game. I can only really justify the ML on that game though at this point.

if discount double fukk hands off a few times they should roll as saints been getting pushed all over the field, not sure if last week was enough of a reminder for them or not as pack act like they dont need a run gm far to often.....

[suicidekings]

if discount double fukk hands off a few times they should roll as saints been getting pushed all over the field, not sure if last week was enough of a reminder for them or not as pack act like they dont need a run gm far to often.....

We'll see. I think Rodgers is not quite on form like he was last season, at the moment, and it's noticeable. It looks so far like Benson is going to get a lot of carries today, provided they're patient and are able to contain the Saints so they're not playing from behind.

I really regret not playing more on the Niners/Pats spread, and playing my leans on the other games... Last week had me gun-shy...

[suicidekings]

LIVE (13:33 2Q, 7-3 JAC)

Bengals ML (+153) x2

[suicidekings]

Week 4

Patriots -3.5 (-109) x2
Niners -4 (-109) x1
Parlay: Pats ML / Niners ML / Packers ML (3.5u to win 7u)
Bengals ML (+153) x2

Today: 4-0 (+13.06)
YTD: 20-26 (+6.32u)

Playing the Giants live if a better price emerges...

[suicidekings]

10/1

Parlay: Bears ML / Under 41.5 (+393) x1

[suicidekings]

10/1

Parlay: Bears ML / Under 41.5 (+393) x1

10/1: 0-1 (-1u)
YTD: 20-27 (+5.32u)

Half right. The score got inflated a bit from the turnovers, but otherwise that game played out as I'd hoped.