They can't handle the spread offense. They have not faced an offense this good all season, and they are in their first game without their defensive captain MVP. They are completely hopeless. Packers 2H +4 is free money.
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Goodbye Seahawks money...Originally posted by suicidekings
10/14: 5-5 (-0.52u)
YTD: 29-35 (+13.76u)Comment -
To a certain extent... I was referring more to the extra opportunities they kept giving the Packers via stupid penalties. By the time the game was 28-10, it should have been more like 14-10 if not for those extra opportunities following Houston defensive stops, and things just got out of reach after that.Originally posted by SparJMUComment -
packers got all the breaks last night. tough loss but get it back tonight.Comment -
I seem to be in the minority when I say I don't respect this Chargers team... Average defense, average offense, average special teams, overly conservative coach, QB protection problems that will only increase with the absence of Gaither and facing Miller/Dumervil. Their rushing defense looks good on paper, but considering Oakland, Atlanta, New Orleans, and Tennessee were all in the bottom 8 in rushing coming into Week 6, I don't know how much faith you can have in them.Originally posted by suicidekings
Rivers is Football Outsiders' 20th ranked starting QB with a mediocre 7.4 yards per pass attempt and an 8-5 TD-INT ratio. Mathews is talented but doesn't make smart choices and doesn't have the confidence of Norv, so he's not performing to his potential. Antonio Gates is not making the catches that he needs to make. Malcolm Floyd is the only player they have that's really playing at the level he should be, and outside of that, the Chargers just don't excel at ANYTHING, despite playing a very weak early schedule.
I think this is a soft line at pk.Comment -
It's Sunday Night Football all over again... This game is probably over.Comment -
Originally posted by suicidekingsThat was amazing. Even with SD spotted 17 free points off turnovers, Peyton had this one...Originally posted by suicidekings
10/15: 1-0 (+4u)
YTD: 30-35 (+17.76u)Comment -
Nice play. Glad you got some money back.Comment -
Thanks.Originally posted by ridims
It never hurts to be lucky.Comment -
I wouldn't say lucky. Rivers was due for int's and bad play calling on O. Manning always keeps his team in games. Always.Comment -
For sure, however when ahead 24-0, you would think that Turner/Rivers would adopt more of a ball control strategy. There's a lot of options for run plays and screens that are intended to counter the blitz packages like Denver uses which could have kept the ball moving and the clock rolling.Originally posted by ridims
I'll substitute lucky for fortunate that Norv continues to be one of the worst coaches in the NFL.Comment -
10/21
Titans +3.5 (-112) x3
Titans ML (+164) x1
Probably my favourite game ATS on the board this week. Tennessee coming off a huge home win where Chris Johnson looked more confident than he has all season. Buffalo is getting gashed by the run every week, including allowing 182 rushing yards against ARIZONA in Week 6. Ryan Fitzpatrick is only gaining 6.6 yards per pass attempt to a weak receiving corps, making for a manageable challenge for the Titans secondary. Fitzpatrick has been sacked 6 times in their last 3 games, and both the OL and DL are riddled with injuries. Tennessee is one of the healthier teams right now at the LOS on both sides of the ball. Tennessee also has also had one of the best special teams units so far this year, really excelling on punting and punt coverage, which should make it tough for the Bills, who have done well in punt returns this year. This is going to be a field position game, with both teams moving the ball on the ground and special teams will play a big factor.
IMO, this is a great spot for the Titans to pick up a road win against a Buffalo team that's had a rough last 3 weeks, getting thoroughly abused by the Niners and Patriots and only barely left Arizona with a win on the strength of a timely interception in OT. They're reeling right now and just looking to get into their bye week, and I like the Titans to take advantage.Comment -
10/18
Teaser: Seahawks +14 / Under 44.5 (-110) x2
This is almost an automatic play for me. Yes, the Niners got destroyed on the weekend and will be playing angry, and yes, the Patriots' mistakes enabled the Seahawks to make their comeback win, but when I break this matchup down, there's a lot going in the Seahawks favour.
First, when you look at the Niners' losses this season, both came at the hands of teams (Vikings/Giants) that play an extremely physical style of football at the line of scrimmage. Seattle also plays this type of physical game on both sides of the ball, largely negating what is normally a pretty solid edge for the Niners.
Second, Alex Smith is not a mentally tough player. By his own admission, he's not strong in putting the bad days behind him
Last year he had the best season of his career, benefiting greatly from the strong support of Harbaugh, a tough running attack, and a defense that was able to force a lot of turnovers and allow him a lot of extra possessions. Still, with that massive improvement, he went from being a bottom 8 NFL starting QB to a middle of the pack QB. I think the 3 INT, 4 sack day against the Giants has got to be weighing heavily on his mind.“Definitely, not right away, that’s not me, no,” Smith said when asked if he rids himself of losses quickly. “Waking up, thinking about it, replaying it even today a little bit. It’s easy to turn on film and ask questions about pretty much everything because none of it looked good,” Smith acknowledged. “I don’t think there’s any one thing I guess—a lot of things playing into it.”
Russell Wilson is the opposite in terms of mental toughness. He's been hearing the same criticisms for his entire pro & amateur career about not being able to play at the NFL level, but he works hard and it shows. He walked into the Wisconsin and took over the team immediately with his leadership and playmaking abilities. He then walked into Seattle as a rookie and took the starting job away from both the incumbent starter AND a big free agent signing. He put in the work to build chemistry with his receivers and it's shown on the field. I wasn't very optimistic about the Seahawks receiving corps to start the season, but after watching a few games, these guys are making BIG plays in tough coverage. I think it's a big mistake to not respect Edwards/Rice/Tate/Baldwin's ability to make those big plays.
On the ground, SF ranks 4th overall defensively in terms of yardage, but only 11th via advanced stats. When the two teams mentioned above (Vikings/Giants) made an effort to stick with the run all game, they ran for 146 & 149 yards respectively and the Seahawks running game is on par with the Giants & Vikes.
The big key to this game for me is the confidence the Seahawks will be carrying into this game and their style of play being a tough matchup for the Niners. On top of that, the quick drop of the line from it's original +9 (-130) all the way down to +7 (+100) (overnight) at Pinny and the corresponding drop in the total from 39.5 -> 38.5 -> 37.5 (in ~30 minutes from the opener) makes me think the books expected early teaser money to come in on the Niners, but it came in on the other side, hence the move back to 7.5. Normally, if they're concerned about protecting the fave from being teased down, they leave the juiced line longer than they did. I'm counting on both teams being good enough defensively to not allow either side to pull away, and settling for FGs and playing for field position being a huge factor.
I would have loved to get +14/U45, but I can live with the 44.5.Comment -
Originally posted by suicidekings
Ravens +7 (-114) x1Comment -
Saturdays have been good to me so far this year. A little college...
Teaser: Oregon -2 / Over 62 (+105) x2
Oregon is a top 5 team, with the S&P+ stats to back it up. Quick strike, high-powered offense featuring two of the most exciting young running backs in the country. Arizona State's run defense looks good on paper but only because they've faced the #106 schedule to date, with the 5 FBS opponents currently sitting at a combined 11-22. Their S&P+ Rush Defense is ranked 84th. Coming off a bye week, Oregon is going to tear them apart, but I'm not into laying big chalk on the road so I like this option better. With a legitimate NC shot this season, Oregon won't let up in this game for one second.
Stanford -2 (-111) x3
All California has done this season is catch Ohio State before they had really gotten in sync, and reaffirm that UCLA can't hang with any real teams. Stanford plays tough football, and coming off that heartbreaking loss at Notre Dame, they're going to be playing angry this week. Stanford can't afford another loss before they go to Corvallis, and they know it.
Florida -3
Haven't played it yet, but this is going to be a huge game, where the Gators prove that they're back by taking control of the SEC East.Comment -
i like that teaser sk,,i kinda wanted to play asu but where the line sits now there no way,,,over seems like no brainer and even if it ducks 1st road gm asu hasnt looked all that impressive to me...Comment -
Yeah, I'd actually really like to watch both of these games as I think we'll learn a lot from both. I haven't watched more than a few minutes of any Ducks games yet this year as the big spreads aren't my thing. Should be a solid thursday night.Comment -
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friend of mine just hit me up and said he had extra ticket to cards gm so i wont be seeing, to bad cause this best thur night fb ncaa and nfl combined wise,,but cant pass up cardinal playoff gm! gl tonightOriginally posted by suicidekingsComment -
Nice! Hopefully you'll come home to find winners in your bet history. I'm pretty sure the Cards take a stranglehold on this series tonight unless Lincecum of 3 years ago magically shows up.Originally posted by 2daBankComment -
Originally posted by suicidekings
this prob the hardest gm of series to cap,,between timmy who been erratic all year and waino who is running out of steam his 1st yr back from tommy john it hard to know what to expect,,,kinda think runs will be in order,,lolComment -
Originally posted by suicidekings
Seahawks ML (+314) x1
I think the Seahawks earn some respect tonight.Comment -
10/18: 1-1 (+1u)Originally posted by suicidekings
YTD: 31-36 (+18.76u)Comment -
43-7 at the half and no scores in the first 17 minutes of the 2H. I'm actually concerned the Over 62 isn't going to hit. Unreal...Teaser: Oregon -2 / Over 62 (+105) x2Comment -
we hit it baby! mine was a 4 teamer with your 2 ncaa and my 2 nflOriginally posted by suicidekings
..how bout them redbirds!
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Solid night all around. Angry Birds x3 made for a good night. The Ducks game in particular was hilarious. It was 22-7 just into the 2Q, and I literally switched to the Seahawks game for just a few minutes, flipped back and it was 43-7.Originally posted by 2daBankwe hit it baby! mine was a 4 teamer with your 2 ncaa and my 2 nfl ..how bout them redbirds!
"To swat down the Ducks on national TV would have been a big boost to the Sun Devils, a we-have-arrived moment that would turn the spotlight full-blast toward the desert.
More than 70,000 fans showed up for this highly anticipated duel, creating a "blackout" with their synchronized black shirts.
The Ducks quickly made it look like they were attending a funeral." -ESPN
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Teaser: Rams +11.5 / Under 51.5 (+100) x1
Third game in a row on the road for the Packers, and following a big road win at Houston. Lots of question marks in who will be available for GB this week, and the Rams have looked good recently. I kind of expect the Pack to put up a mediocre effort this week against a tough defense. Rodgers has been very vulnerable in the pocket this season and the Rams should get to him a couple of times. Overall, both teams have pretty solid pass defense and both have been trying to get their running game rolling in recent weeks, so I just think this game is a low scoring one where Zurleiner hits a couple of long field goals and the Packers won't be able to generate the quick strike drives that they were able to put together against the Texans.Comment -
Teaser: Giants pk / Over 45 (+100) x1
Eli Manning is playing in top form right now. As good as RG3 has been, I don't think he'll be as successful running the ball in this game against the Giants defensive front as he has been in past weeks. The Over seems like an obvious winner to me, and I think the Giants play well enough to take this game.Comment -
Teaser: Panthers +7 / Saints +3.5 / Jaguars +10 / Bears pk (+260) x1
Teams coming off a bye are killing it this year, and I really like most of these sides at their original spread as well.Comment -
i like them both sk..i played the skins/nyg ov 50 couple days ago,,,,been considering same tease on the lambs just havnt done it yet (was actually just waiting for total to get where it would be 51.5 teased)..even my gb high end and stl low end has it as a 11 point gm so think it solid...i guess 1 concern would be how greg the leg responds to finally missing a few but id think he gets back to drilling them in the dome, that kid can kick the living shit out of the ball rams are practically in scoring range soon as they cross the 50!Comment -
I would be shocked if he misses any this week. That breeze was tough in Miami and he's had a week to refocus and practice in the friendly confines of the dome. Total FGs in the game Over 3.5 (+133) right now could be a winner too.Originally posted by 2daBankComment -
Teaser: Jaguars +10 / Under 50 (+100) x1
Not a lot to say about this one. Two one-dimensional offenses, Jags off a bye week, getting healthier, and with Bob Bratkowski on their sideline against Palmer. The Raiders coming off a big game vs Atlanta where they fell just short. I don't think the Raiders get much going this week, and this game should be nice and boring.Comment -
diggin this pick. may tailOriginally posted by suicidekingsComment -
Originally posted by suicidekings
Ravens/Texans Over 48 (-109) x1Comment -
Colts pk (-105) x2
I can't even explain why I like this so much. I think think the line has moved too far here, with the Browns being bet down 3.5 points? I can't get on board with that big of a line shift in favour of such a bad team. The Colts have actually been pretty decent in pass defense, with their weakness being ground defense, but the Browns Offensive Line has been really bad this year in winning at the LOS. Richardson has only done what he's done because he's extremely talented, but overall the Browns run game is a disappointment.
I just like the Colts to step up today at home.Comment
