Suicidekings 2012 NFL Thread

[suicidekings]

LIVE (0-0, 9:26 1Q):

Cowboys ML (-117) x2

[suicidekings]

LIVE (13-13, 3Q 4:59)

Giants ML (-150) x4

[suicidekings]

10/21

Titans +3.5 (-112) x3
Titans ML (+164) x1
Ravens +7 (-114) x1
Ravens/Texans Over 48 (-109) x1
Teaser: Rams +11.5 / Under 51.5 (+100) x1
Teaser: Giants pk / Over 45 (+100) x1
Colts pk (-105) x2
Giants ML (-150) x4
Cowboys ML (-117) x2

Morning Games: 8-1 (+15.64u)
YTD: 39-37 (+34.40u)

The 5 minute period between when the Titans and Giants both were down in the last 90 seconds of the game and when they scored their go ahead touchdowns to win was the most stressful 5 minutes of my NFL season...

Pending

Teaser: Jaguars +10 / Under 50 (+100) x1
Teaser: Panthers +7 / Saints +3.5 / Jaguars +10 / Bears pk (+260) x1

[suicidekings]

LIVE (3-0 Raiders, 6:13 1Q)

Jaguars ML (+232) x1.5

Jags are already getting to Palmer easily. It took the biggest play of the Raiders season to even get them as far as they got and only were able to get a FG out of it.

[No coincidences]

Hell of a day and a hell of a weekend SK. Impressed that you've been able to ignore line movement and everything else and ride the wave.

[suicidekings]

Hell of a day and a hell of a weekend SK. Impressed that you've been able to ignore line movement and everything else and ride the wave.

Life is good right now. All told between college and NFL, I'm up over 65u since the start of the season, mostly because I simplified my approach to handicapping dramatically. I'm almost hesitant to shift any of my attention to the NBA right now, even though that's my best sport.

[mbcoutinho]

What do you think about Jaguar +4.5 on 2H?

[suicidekings]

What do you think about Jaguar +4.5 on 2H?

They're still a bad team having a great day. I think if you missed out on the pregame line it's not worth putting money on them now. No sense in taking them at -6.5 for the game when so much of what they did came due to Raider mistakes.

[No coincidences]

Life is good right now. All told between college and NFL, I'm up over 65u since the start of the season, mostly because I simplified my approach to handicapping dramatically. I'm almost hesitant to shift any of my attention to the NBA right now, even though that's my best sport.

Wow. Congrats.

[suicidekings]

Teaser: Jaguars +10 / Under 50 (+100) x1
Jaguars ML (+232) x1.5

Afternoon: 1-1 (-0.5u)
YTD: 40-38 (+33.90u)

[suicidekings]

I don't normally post these, but every Saturday (NCAAF) & Sunday (NFL) I play an 8 team parlay, rounding my account balance down to the nearest $25 and using the remainder as the risk amount. One leg away... I'm honestly not sure how I feel about this last game. Considering just taking the easy hedge and free ~$1000

[No coincidences]

I don't normally post these, but every Saturday (NCAAF) & Sunday (NFL) I play an 8 team parlay, rounding my account balance down to the nearest $25 and using the remainder as the risk amount. One leg away...

[ATTACH]49134[/ATTACH]

Sweet. Are you hedging at all? Free money....

[suicidekings]

Sweet. Are you hedging at all? Free money....

I really wish I had picked a different game for the last leg... If I had gone with the Bears ML, I could have then played the Lions +7 (-125) and shoot for a huge middle... I think the Steelers have a really good chance of winning this game tonight, so I might just wait and see what happens, hoping for a better line in live betting. Even Bengals +3.5 would be a big edge here.

[suicidekings]

These Steelers WRs are killing me with dropped passes...

[GChild]

Unreal

[suicidekings]

Sweet. Are you hedging at all? Free money....

24-17 Steelers

Bengals ML (+284) x1.8, guaranteeing $500 if the Bengals win, and $1788 if the Steelers win. No need to be too greedy...

[No coincidences]

24-17 Steelers

Bengals ML (+284) x1.8, guaranteeing $500 if the Bengals win, and $1788 if the Steelers win. No need to be too greedy...

Smart. Hell of a return off an $11 bet either way.

[suicidekings]

Monday Night Football (10/22)

Bears ML (+235) x4
Lions ML (+235) x4

I wrote these in other threads regarding this game:

The biggest factor in this game is how strong the Bears secondary actually is. They're a good group, and the pass rush has been solid, but their opponents have been the Colts, Packers, Rams, Cowboys, and Jaguars. Andrew Luck (in his first NFL start and on the road), Bradford and Gabbert were all advantageous matchups for the Bears.

Romo threw 5 interceptions, but given his history of throwing INTs and the fact that he was playing from behind for most of the game, you really can't give full credit to the Bears defense. He was giving his receivers the chance to make plays, and they didn't come through. The held Aaron Rodgers to only 219 yards plus Masthay's fake FG touchdown pass, so I suppose that's a decent performance. Cutler really gave that game away with INTs because he wasn't on the same page as his receivers.

So in 5 games, they've only really faced two legit QBs, and three elite WRs. Jordy Nelson had 84 yards on 6 receptions, Dez Bryant put up 105 on 8 receptions. Amendola had 66 yards on 5 receptions despite Bradford killing drives with INTs. I feel like Calvin Johnson and Stafford are going to make the Bears defense look quite a bit softer than the stat sheet makes them appear to be.

I suspect this will be a game where either the Lions win SU or hurt themselves enough that they fail to cover.

The Bears running game has been only really been average so far this year. The Bears rushing is currently ranked 16th via advanced stats, while the Lions are ranked 9th. Among conventional stats, the Bears gain about 25 more yards per game via rushing, but also average 5 more carries per game. Both teams are hovering around 4ypc on the season with 5 rushing touchdowns. Pretty evenly matched overall... Any argument that the Bears have a big edge on the ground has no base.

[andco1]

Where did you get that line!?

[suicidekings]

Where did you get that line!?

The Lions ML? Pinnacle.

[suicidekings]

The Lions ML? Pinnacle.

Oh shit, hahaha... Corrected above. Should Be Lions ML (+235) x4, not the Bears. Sorry.

[suicidekings]

LIVE (5:12 2Q, 10-0)

Lions ML (+750) x2

[suicidekings]

Lions ML (+235) x4
Lions ML (+750) x2

10/22: 0-1 (-6u)
YTD: 40-39 (+27.90u)

That self destruction was unreal.

[2daBank]

I don't normally post these, but every Saturday (NCAAF) & Sunday (NFL) I play an 8 team parlay, rounding my account balance down to the nearest $25 and using the remainder as the risk amount. One leg away... I'm honestly not sure how I feel about this last game. Considering just taking the easy hedge and free ~$1000

[ATTACH]49134[/ATTACH]

that awesome bro..i knew you had good week as we agreed on quite a bit...hope to see you stop by for the discussion im my thread this week as you were a much welcomed addition!..

[2daBank]

10/22: 0-1 (-6u)
YTD: 40-39 (+27.90u)

That self destruction was unreal.

glad i played the spread as well but yea they had every chance to win that gm..

[suicidekings]

glad i played the spread as well but yea they had every chance to win that gm..

It was a good night to take a risk after the solid Sunday. 6u to win 24.4u on a game that played out much closer than the boxscore (or the price) indicated. Even with the loss, I don't regret the play.

[suicidekings]

Teaser (6tm, 6.5pt)

- Falcons +7.5
- Seahawks +7.5
- Dolphins +7.5
- Bears -2.5
- Broncos +0.5
- Niners pk

1.67u to win 10u

[2daBank]

Teaser (6tm, 6.5pt)

- Falcons +7.5
- Seahawks +7.5
- Dolphins +7.5
- Bears -2.5
- Broncos +0.5
- Niners pk

1.67u to win 10u

typically i despise teases of more than 2 teams (occasionally i play 3 but rarely)...but i gotta say of the ones that typically get posted around here this is the best looking one ive seen,,,think i might join you for .8 unit to get 5 back for shits and giggles..

[suicidekings]

typically i despise teases of more than 2 teams (occasionally i play 3 but rarely)...but i gotta say of the ones that typically get posted around here this is the best looking one ive seen,,,think i might join you for .8 unit to get 5 back for shits and giggles..

This is one of those weeks where the straight lines are really tough, but that means big teaser value. You can get on the right side of the 3/7/10 in virtually every game on the card. Loving the ML parlay options available too, between college and NFL.

[suicidekings]

NCAAF

Ohio State -3 (+148) x2

I can't believe I missed the opener on this game, but no matter. Braxton Miller will start this game as he's been cleared of concussion. He's a tough player that's taken more than a couple massive hits this year and bounced back quickly. Carlos Hyde is a beast that can shoulder more of the load in the running game allowing Miller to play the role of the pocket passer more in this game if he's trying to avoid heavy contact.

Penn State's stats look good, but they've accumulated them against a very soft schedule. Navy, Temple, and Illinois are three of the worst offensive teams in the FBS. Ohio, Northwestern, and Virginia are all average to below average. I would call the win over Iowa an impressive one, but that's it. Ohio State hasn't played a very tough schedule either, but has wins over Nebraska and Michigan State.

Penn State has had a tremendous season considering the turmoil they've undergone, but they're about to run into a brick wall and lose 2 of their next 3 games.

[ShogunRua]

Thoughts on the total in that OSU/PSU game? I really liked the under initially, but I'm not crazy about the way it's moving (perhaps its moving up b/c B. Miller will play?).

Thanks in advance.

[suicidekings]

Thoughts on the total in that OSU/PSU game? I really liked the under initially, but I'm not crazy about the way it's moving (perhaps its moving up b/c B. Miller will play?).

Thanks in advance.

I'm skeptical about PSU's offense. They've had a pretty easy run of things so far. That said, i suspect we're going to see some short fields brought about by good defense and PSU's atrocious special teams. I think Ohio State jumps out early and the total really depends on how much McGloin can produce against the Buckeye defense when playing from behind. Ohio State has proven how much fight they have in them in such situations, PSU hasn't, with the exception of the Northwestern game, and they had NO business winning that game as it was a collapse from the Wildcats that made it happen.

No strong lean on the total for me.

[imarkp]

that awesome bro..i knew you had good week as we agreed on quite a bit...hope to see you stop by for the discussion im my thread this week as you were a much welcomed addition!..

outfukkinstanding! nice way to ballance your book.

[lyon804]

Like the OSU play.

[suicidekings]

Like the OSU play.

Thanks Lyon. The only team I've watched more of this year than OSU is Florida, so I feel like I have a pretty good read on the team.