Adding to my plays
4tm 6.5pt Tease CLE-1/PIT-2.5/IND+1.5/NYJ+4 .5u (+250)
4tm 6.5pt Tease CLE-1/PIT-2.5/IND+1.5/NYJ+4 .5u (+250)
-
Comment -
Results Week 14
=========================
Overall
System
ML = 115-57 66.86%
ATS = 84-87 49.12%
O/U = 82-91 47.40%
Consensus Picks
ML = 47-24 66.20%
ATS = 41-30 57.75%
O/U = 33-38 46.48%
System Plays
42-38 52.50% +6.89u
My Plays
35-45 43.75% +41.64u
Week 14
System
ML = 9-6
ATS = 7-9
O/U = 6-8
Consensus Picks
ML = 5-1
ATS = 1-5
O/U = 3-3Comment -
YTD
ML 115-57 66.86%, ATS 84-87 49.12%, O/U 82-91 47.40%
Consensus Picks ATS 41-30 57.75%
Week 15
Consensus Picks
(Stats and I)
CIN -4
CHI +3
IND +8
BUF +5.5
DAL +2
(banmanj and I)18-11-1 since week9
CIN -4
IND +8
TB +3.5
BAL +3
ARI +6.5
OAK -3
(banmanj and Stats) 16-7-2 since week9
NA
(All 3) 11-6-1 since week9
CIN
INDComment -
System Bets
Straight
DAL+2 (-110) 1u
BUF+5.5 (-110) 1u
Parlay
DAL+2/BUF+5.5 .25u
Tease
6pt DAL+8/BUF+11.5 (-105) .5u
7pt DAL+9/BUF+12.5/CHI+10 (+142) 1uComment -
My Plays (so far)
2tm 6pt Tease CIN+1.5/Under50.5 .5u(-115)
5tm 9pt Tease CIN+3.5/MIN+10/DEN+6.5/DET+2/DAL+10 1U(+210)
7tm PAR CIN/MIN/MIA/HOU/SD/DET/TEN .5U(+1956)Comment -
adding to My Plays
5tm 7.5pt Tease TB+11.5/HOU-3/CAR+10/PIT+7.5/SF+12.5 1u(+295)
9tm 8.5pt Tease TB+12.5/MIN+9.5/DEN+6/HOU-2/CAR+11/DET+1.5/PIT+8.5/SF+13.5/TEN+7.5 1u(+795)
14tm 12pt Tease GB+9/NYG+12/NOS+8/MIN+13/MIA+4/DEN+9.5/IND+22.5/CAR+14.5/SEA+5/DET+5/PIT+12/OAK+9/SF+17/TEN+11 .5u(+1050)Comment -
last add to My plays
4tm 11pt Tease HOUpk/CAR+13.5/SEA+6.5/TEN+10 1u(+115)Comment -
Results Week 15
=========================
Overall
System
ML = 124-63 66.31%
ATS = 91-96 48.66%
O/U = 88-98 47.31%
Consensus Picks
ML = 50-26 65.79%
ATS = 43-33 56.58%
O/U = 35-40 46.67%
System Plays
43-42 550.59% 5.04u
My Plays
37-50 42.53% +39.29u
Week 15
System
ML = 9-6
ATS = 7-9
O/U = 6-7
Consensus Picks
ML = 3-2
ATS = 2-3
O/U = 2-2Comment -
Calmeat's System Picks
YTD
ML 124-63 66.31%, ATS 91-96 48.66%, O/U 88-98 47.31%
Consensus Picks ATS 43-33 56.58%
Week 16
Consensus Picks
TEN+13
OAK+8.5
BUF+4.5
JAX+14.5
CLE+13Comment -
System Bets
Straight
TEN+13 (-110) .5u
BUF+4.5 (-110) .5u
Parlay
TEN+13/BUF+4.5 .25u
Tease
6pt TEN+19/BUF+10.5 (-105) .5u
7pt TEN+20/BUF+11.5/CLE+20 (+142) 1uComment -
My Plays (so far)
7tm PAR ATL/GB/CAR/NEP/IND/HOU/DEN 1u(+368)
10tm 13pt Tease ATL+9/GB-1/CAR+3.5/BUF+18/NEP-2.5/IND+5.5/STL+16/HOU+4/DEN-1/SF+13 1u(+335)
7tm 7.5pt Tease ATL+3.5/CAR-2/BUF+12.5/INDpk/STL+10.5/HOU-1.5/SF+7.5 .5u(+590)
3tm 8.5 pt Tease CAR-1/IND+1/SF+8.5 1.5u(+105)Comment -
adding to My plays
3tm 7.5pt Tease INDpk/NYG+4.5/SEA+7.5 1u(+127)Comment -
hoping this week is better still up a lot for the season but like to add to it here.
My Plays
3tm 7pt Tease NEP-4/HOUpk/SEA-5 1u(+142)
4tm 9pt Tease NEP-2/CHI+6/NOS+4.5/SEA-3 1.5u(+145)
6tm 11pt Tease NEPpk/HOU+4/NOS+6.5/DEN-6/SF-6.5/SEA-1 1u(+215)
8tm 9pt Tease BUF+5.5/NEP-2/IND+16/PHI+17/WSH+5.5/CHI+6/NOS+4.5/SEA-3 1.5u(+515)
Games i love Teased
NEP CHI NOS SEAComment -
Wildcard Trends
1.At least one of the #6 seeds have advanced to the 2nd round past 3 years, both #6 seeds advanced in 2008 & 2010.only one in 2009. None in 2011.
2.Past 22 years of the wildcard round, there has been only 2 times where all 4 favorites won SU, thats 2-20 past 22 years that means the odds are against all 4 favorites winning their games SU at least one dog will win SU this weekend
3.Play the Under in a wildcard game if the road team beat a division opponent in their last regular season game..11-4 Under since 2004...73%
Based on those
1. CIN or MIN would be a good play
2. CIN,MIN,BAL,WSH at least one ML would be a play
3. Play under in all 4 games.Comment -
Divisional Round Trends
1.NO. 1 seeds 32-12 SU and 24-20 ATS
2.Top seeds in NFC have gone 19-3 SU and 15-7 ATS
3.Top seeds from the AFC have gone 13-9 SU and 9-13 ATS
4.Teams that won 11 or more games last year are 40-9 SU and 30-18-1 ATS at home with a week to prepare in Division Round contests.
5.Teams that were losing teams last year (seven or fewer wins) are just 8-36 SU and 17-25-1 ATS in this round.
6.Put one up against the other – an 11-plus win home team against a losing team last year – and these hosts respond , going an eye-opening 18-0 SU and 13-4-1 ATS.
7.wild card teams who won at home are just 16-39 SU and 22-31-1 ATS in this role against well-rested higher-seeded foes
8.wild card winners take to the road off one win, they dip to a disgusting 0-17 SU and 2-14-1 ATS
9.wild card-round winners have covered their divisional round games more often than not since 2005 with an overall 17-11 record.
That is a solid 61% winning percentage
10.NFC Favorites of TD or more 7-3 SU 6-4 ATS
11.AFC Favorites of TD or more 4-4 SU 1-7 ATSComment -
So based on trends here are the the plays for each trend
1. Play ATL & NEP ML
2. Play ATL ML & -2.5 & SF ML & -3
3. Play DEN ML & NEP ML, BAL+9, HOU+9
4. Play NEP ML & -9, SF ML & -3
5. Play ATL ML & -2.5 (SEA)
6. NONE
7. Play NEP ML & -9,SF ML & -3, DEN ML & -9 (HOU,GB,BAL)
8. Play NEP ML & -9,SF ML & -3, DEN ML & -9 (HOU,GB,BAL)
9. Play HOU+9,GB+3,BAL+9,SEA+2.5
10. None
11. Play DEN & NEP ML, HOU+9 & BAL+9Comment -
My Plays Divisional Round
3tm ML Par DEN/SF/NEP (+145) 1u
3tm 8.5pt Tease DEN-1.5/SF+5.5/NEP-1.5 (+105) 1uComment -
thought i would post the sheet for the playoffs a little late but oh well
Comment -
Trend Time
1. Home teams are just 23-17 SU & 17-22-1 ATS in the last 40
1. NE/ATL ML, BAL/SF ATS
2. Home Teams are on a run of 9-4 SU & 4-9 ATS dating back to the late game on January 22, 2006
2. NE/ATL ML, BAL/SF ATS
3. Home teams are 7-3 SU the past 5 years and have won better than two-thirds of the time since the merger (57 of 85).
3.NE/ATL ML
4. The last 7 non-#1 seeded hosts went 5-2 SU & ATS.
4.NEP ML,ATS
5.There have been 14 instances since ’93 in which a seed #4 or lower reached the Conference Championship Round and took on a #1 or #2. Those lesser seeds boast a 9-6 SU & 9-5-1 ATS record in those games.
5. BAL ML, BAL ATS
6. In the AFC, road teams are on a run of 6-8 SU & 9-5 ATS in the last 14 years.
6. NEP ML, BAL ATS
7. In the AFC, Home teams are 23-11 SU & 17-17 ATS since 1980.
7. NEP ML
8. In the NFC, home teams boast a record of 5-4 SU & 4-5 ATS in the last seven.
8. ATL ML
9. In the NFC, home teams boast a record of 22-11 SU & 18-15 ATS since 1980.
9. ATL ML
10. Overall, favorites are 10-12 ATS in the last 11 years on Conference Championship Sunday.
10. BAL ATS, ATL ATS
11. Favorites are 44-21 SU and 35-30 ATS since 1980
11. NEP ML, SF ML
12. Favorites are 35-19 SU and 32-22 ATS when laying fewer than 10 pts since 1980.
12. NEP ATS, SF ATS
13. Teams with better records are 42-19 SU and 33-28 ATS.
13. NEP ML, ATL ML
14. With the line less than 10 those teams are 30-20 ATS.
14. NEP ATS, ATL ATS
15. "Intermediate/high" favorites (those laying between 7-9.5 points) are 15-6 ATS in conference championships since 1970
15. NEP ATS
16. Double-digit favorites are only 4-8 ATS
16. NA
17. Going back to 1993, 10 Conference Championship games have seen a line move 1.5 points or more throughout the week. Bettors are 4-5-1 ATS in those games following the money, but when the line has moved 3 points or more, bettors are just 0-3-1 ATS. In other words, you’d have been much better off fading the line move in such cases.
17. ATL ML, ATS
18. Favorites straight up... 55-30
18. NEP ML, SF ML
19. Favored by 1-3 points... 13-12
19. NA
20. Favored by 3.5-6.5 points... 12-13-2
20. ATL ML
21. Favored by 7-9.5 points... 17-4
21. NEP ML
22. Favored by 10 or more... 4-8
22. NA
23. Home teams straight up... 57-29
23. NEP ML, ATL ML
24. Home teams vs. spread... 46-38-2
24. NEP ATS, ATL ATS
25. Home favorites vs. spread... 38-31-2
25. NEP ATS
26. Home underdogs vs. spread... 8-6
26. ATL ATS
27. Home pick'em vs. spread... 0-1
27. NA
28. Teams in championship game that did not give up a pass play of more than 25 yards in the prior week are 13-0 ATS
28. BAL ATS
O/U
28. Conference title "totals" have also trended "over" (9-5) the last 6 seasons. 2012 both under
28. OVER
29. Overs/unders (since 1990)... 27-12-1
29. OVER
30. O/U > 46pts = 8 over 4 under
30. OVER
31. O/U < 41pts = 12 over 4 under 1 push, 2012 O/U= 41 2.5pt move from 43.5 went under
31. NA
32. since 2005, 13 of the 18 games have gone Over
32. Over
33. The last 7 of 8 times that a Conference Championship game was hosted by a non-#1 seed, the games went OVER the total, producing 52 PPG. 2012 weather real bad went under, 37pts
33. NEP/BAL OVER
34. The last 6 of 8 NFC Championship games have gone OVER the total. The home team has averaged more than 27 PPG in that span. 2012 weather real bad went under, 17pts
34. SF/ATL OVER
NE ML=11
BAL ML=1
ATL ML=8
SF ML=2
NE ATS=6
BAL ATS=6
ATL ATS=5
SF ATS=3Comment -
My Plays (so far)
2tm Parlay ATL+4/BAL+10.5 (1.5u)+220
4tm Parlay SF/ATL Over 49, ATL+4, BAL/NEP Over 51.5, BAL+10 (.5u)+1105
4tm 10pt Tease SF/ATL Over 39, ATL+14, BAL/NEP Over 41.5, BAL+20 (1u)+132Comment