Calmeat NFL Picks 2012

[calmeat]

Alright so Here are the system plays as of now. Ill be gone this weekend so putting them up now. Dont really like system bets so im personally playing some teasers

System Bets


Straight
NYG +2 1u
BUF +4 1u
TEN +12 1u
NYJ +4 1u
CHI +4 1u
WSH +3 1u
STL +3 1u


Parlay
NYG/BUF .5u


Tease
6pt NYG +8/BUF +10 1u
7pt NYG +9/BUF +11/NOS +7.5 1u


Home Dog
BUF +180 1u


My Plays
2tm 6pt Tease BAL-6/Under 50 to win $10
7tm 8pt Tease BAL-5.5/NEP+4/ATLpk/HOU-5.5/DEN+1/GB-1/NYG+8 ($3 to win $15)
3tm 8pt Tease Bal -5.5/HOU-5.5/GB-1 ($20 to win $23)

[calmeat]

Also under "My Plays" add
NEP+2.5/ATL-1 2tm 6pt Tease to win 25

[CBOYNATION]

Keep it coming Calmeat! Some good teasers every week, except the Bills killed me! Oh and at least we both have the same hate for the Giants, although if they win outright last night I hit a huge teaser for $350, so not thrilled about that. Shoulda took them +2.5 instead of ML. Oh well, always week 5!

[calmeat]

Statsational NFL 2012
YTD 25-15-2 60%
Week4 7-5-1 58%


Week 4 pick results


1. Miami +6.5....................76%...W
2. Oakland +6.5..............75%...L
3. New Orleans +7.5........73%...W
4. Buffalo +4.5.................66%...L
5. Carolina +7..................65%...W
6. Seattle -2.5.................63%...L
7. Jacksonville +2.5............63%...L
8. Dallas -3.5...................62% MNF...L
9. Washington +3............61%...W
10. San Diego +1.............58%...W
11. San Francisco -4.........57%...W
12. NY Giants +2..............56% SNF...Push
13. Cleveland +12.............55% TN...W

[calmeat]

Calmeat's System Picks

Overall
System
ML = 16-15 51.61%
ATS = 15-15 50%
O/U = 15-15 50%


Consensus Picks
ML = 5-6 45.45%
ATS = 7-3 70%
O/U = 6-5 54.55%




Week 4
ML = 10-5
ATS = 7-7
O/U = 9-7


Consensus Picks
ML = 2-3
ATS = 3-1
O/U = 2-3


System Plays
10-10 50% +3.1u


My Plays
5-2 71.43% +3.1u

[calmeat]

Statsational NFL 2012
YTD 30-20-3 60%




NFL Week 5 Picks


1. Seattle +3.....................77%
2. Kansas City +5.5...........74%
3. Washington +3.............73%
4. Minnesota -5.5.............68%
5. San Francisco -9.5.......67%
6. Philadelphia +3.5.........63%
7. Green Bay -7................58%
8. Denver +7....................57%
9. Miami +4......................55%
10. Cleveland +9.5............55%
11. Jacksonville +5.5.........54%
12. St. Louis +1.5...............53%

[calmeat]

Calmeat's System Picks


YTD
16-15 ML 51.61%, 15-15 ATS 50%, 16-15 O/U 51.61%
Consensus Picks 7-3 ATS 70%


Week 5



Consensus Picks
WSH +3
STL +1.5
DEN +7

[calmeat]

System Bets


Straight
WSH +3 .5u
STL +1.5 .5u
DEN +7 1u
IND +7 .5u
CIN -3.5 .5u
BUF +10 .5u


Parlay
WSH/STL .5u


Tease
6pt WSH +9/STL +7.5 .5u
7pt WSH +10/STL +8.5/DEN +14 1u


Home Dog
WSH +140 .5u
STL +110 .5u

[calmeat]

My Plays
3tm 8.5pt Tease ATL +6/ SF -2.5/ HOU -.5 3u (+105)
10tm 14pt Tease ARI +14/ATL+11.5/GBP+6.5/NYG+4/MIN+8.5/SEA+16.5/SF+3/SD+17/HOU+5 .5u (+210)
2tm 6.5pt T BAL -.5/GBP-1 1u (-115)
3tm 8.5pt T NYG -1.5/SEA+11.5/DEN+16 1u (+105)
2tm 6pt T STL+6/Un 45.5 .5u (-105)

[calmeat]

Adding

MY Plays
2tm Parlay NYG-8/HOU-8 (1u)
2tm 6pt T GB-1/ATL+3 (2u)
3tm 10pt T ATL+7/SF+.5/HOU+2 (2u)

[CBOYNATION]

Let's Cash!!

[Renegades]

Are you getting his plays? Stats went tout no longer sending free via email.

[calmeat]

I am not getting his plays however he is letting me know when my plays match his so i can still do the consensus picks.

[Renegades]

Whats the record on the consensus? Sorry new to this thread. Stumbled upon it looking for stats

[calmeat]

Consensus picks to date are 8-5 ATS

[Renegades]

Thx

[calmeat]

Results
=========================
Overall
System
ML = 27-18 60%
ATS = 20-24 45.45%
O/U = 22-23 48.89%


Consensus Picks
ML = 7-7 50%
ATS = 8-5 61%
O/U = 7-7 50%


Week 5
ML = 11-3
ATS = 5-9
O/U = 6-8


Consensus Picks
Week 5
ML = 2-1
ATS = 1-2
O/U = 1-2

Plays
System Plays
15-16 48.39% +2.79u


My Plays
10-4 71.43% +6.85u

[calmeat]

Calmeat's System Picks


YTD
27-18 ML 60%, 20-24 ATS 45.45%, 22-23 O/U 48.89%
Consensus Picks 8-5 ATS 61.54%


Week 6



Consensus Picks
TEN +5.5
NEP -4
NYJ -3

[calmeat]

System Bets


Straight
TEN +5.5 .5u
NEP -4 .5u
BAL -3.5 .5u
DET +4 .5u
BUF +4.5 .5u


Parlay
TEN/NEP .5u


Tease
6pt TEN +11.5/NEP +2 1u
7pt Ten +12.5/NEP +3/ NYJ +4 1u


Home Dog
Ten +220 .5u

[CBOYNATION]

You playing any of your plays this week? Those are usually better than the system plays.

[calmeat]

Yeah forgot to post for tonight.

6pt T PIT/Over

I am a bit worried on this one. for some reason i feel like the titans could take this one but logic says Pit should win by at least 10 so ill go safe and get PIT to a PK. Could this be the first thursday for the over??

[calmeat]

Damn should have listened to my fat gut last night. I was leaning towards my sheet and then my head took over and went with PIT. Alright back to figuring this weekend out.

[calmeat]

My Plays 10-6 62.50% +9u


4tm 11pt Tease NEP+7.5/NYG+18/GB+14/DEN+11 2u (+115)
4tm 11pt Tease NYJ +7.5/ATL+.5/NEP+7.5/BAL+7.5 1u (+115)
9tm 14.5pt Tease PIT+7.5/TB+10/ATL+4/BAL+11/NEP+11/ARI+10/CLE+15.5/HOU+11.5/SD+14.5 1u (115)
Parlay NEP-3/NYJ-3 1u (+218)
Parlay OAK+10/PHI-3 1.5u (+213)

(i made an error on keeping units and was risking instead of betting to win xUnits) Next week will reflect that.)

[CBOYNATION]

Yea, I did the same thing last night... I had already made a couple of Pitt bets before I saw the system plays favored the Titans so much. I still got in the titans teasers though. I have to agree logic def dictated Pitt wins in a landslide!

[calmeat]

Alright not sure why but im taking a stab at tonight.

6pt Tease DEN +6 Ov 42 1u (-105)

[calmeat]

Results
=========================
Overall
System
ML = 36-23 61.02%
ATS = 28-29 49.12%
O/U = 31-28 52.54%

Consensus Picks
ML = 10-8 55.56%
ATS = 11-6 64.71%
O/U = 11-7 61.11%

System Plays
21-19 52.50% +5.33u

My Plays
12-9 57.14% +8.8u

Week 5
System
ML = 9-5
ATS = 8-5
O/U = 9-5

Consensus Picks
ML = 3-1
ATS = 3-1
O/U = 4-0

[imarkp]

teaser %

was reading your post recaping % of your picks and system picks with the teaser pts, very interesting, 75% wont get it done lose 1 win 1 lose on the juice, getting into 82%+ gets better. do you have this years% and any thoughts. i'm a sucker for teasers and slightly ahead.

[calmeat]

imarkp,
I do have all my stats for the season so far. Those numbers your talking about is a bit misleading since a teaser would have 2 teams in it so its not very useful. For the system itself i keep record and i analyze it to see if i can see a trend or something. but to answer your ? for 6pt tease 43-16 72.89%

This year i am doing things differently from analyzing the performance from last year. System Plays and My Plays are the only things im counting with units.

System Play teasers are 6-2 75% +4.79u
My Play teasers are 12-7 63% +11.3u

[imarkp]

thx for reply. just stumbled across thread today. will be tailing with great interest. consensus plays are looking strong.

[calmeat]

Cool welcome aboard hopefully i dont go on a cold streak now

As for consensus breakdown since week 3 $10 bets
11-4 ATS +$66
2tm 6pt Tease (+100) 3-1 +$20
3tm 6pt Tease (+180) 3-1 +$44
4tm 6pt Tease (+300) 2-1 +$50
Top 2 Consensus Parlay 3-4 (and 1 side push) +$40
Consensus Parlays with teams above 5 +/- differential 3-2 +$50

[calmeat]

Calmeat's System Picks


YTD
36-23 ML 61.02%, 28-29 ATS 49.12%, 31-28 O/U 52.54%
Consensus Picks 11-6 ATS 64.71%


Week 7



Consensus Picks
MIN -6
CLE +2.5
CAR +2
WSH +5.5
TBB +3
CIN +1.5
CHI -6

[calmeat]

System Bets

Straight
CAR +2.5 (-105) 1u
TBB +3 (-125) 1u

Parlay
CAR/TBB 1u

Tease
6pt CAR+8/TBB+9 1u
7pt CAR+9/TBB+10/CIN+8.5 1u

Home Dog
CAR +118
TBB +125
CIN +107

My Plays
3tm 7pt Tease CAR+10/TBB+10/CIN+7.5 1u (+127)
6tm 14pt Tease SEA+22/BAL+21/GB+9/NEP+2.5/CIN+14/CHI+7 2u (-105)
4tm 6pt Tease TBB+8.5/CAR+8.5/JAX+10/SEA+14 1u (+300)
Parlay CAR+2.5/TBB+2 .5u (+246)

[CBOYNATION]

So many CAR bets, having a hard time with these this week!

[calmeat]

CBOYNATION,
I hear ya man looking at the game there is no reason why DAL shouldnt win this game by at least 7pts. Its def hard to follow a system in NFL since most of us are very passionate and feel we have a good take on games. And when our home teams are involved its even harder to follow. Both Teams are desperate for the win Car a bit more since if they lose this game they are pretty much done and they are at home. DAL needs the win as well so figure this game to be a close one. I feel better about taking Car and TBB on teases because i think both games will end up around a FG or less Difference.

And CAR TBB and CIN we are crossing the 3 and 7 pts so it should be good.

[calmeat]

Adding
My Plays
2tm 6pt Tease GB+1/NEP-6 3u