When the spread doesn't move, follow the money
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McRichSBR Wise Guy
- 10-26-07
- 961
#841Comment -
fiveteamerSBR Posting Legend
- 04-14-08
- 10805
#842Are these RLM's?
Cal-Washington State PK
75% of money is on Cal, but the line moves to -1.5 for WSU.
Also WKU-FIU
94% of the money is on WKU but the line goes from +6.5 to +6 for WKU.
????????????????????Comment -
losturmarblesSBR MVP
- 07-01-08
- 4604
#843Comment -
CapybaraSBR Posting Legend
- 08-17-08
- 11803
#844Hey, calling all you RLM'ers, let's hear from you! How have you been doing with it lately? I haven't been on all the games, but have been on most of them, and it seems to me lately that when I have bet RLMs, they are not winning at their usual clip....
Anyone else been having the same experience lately?
Some of you have shown stats that it should work 60% of the time over time, right? Just wanted to double-check, because honestly it seems like it's been under 50% lately, especially in college hoops.
Come on, y'all, stop lurking and chime in!Comment -
RobustSBR MVP
- 09-13-08
- 3254
#845Hey, calling all you RLM'ers, let's hear from you! How have you been doing with it lately? I haven't been on all the games, but have been on most of them, and it seems to me lately that when I have bet RLMs, they are not winning at their usual clip....
Anyone else been having the same experience lately?
Some of you have shown stats that it should work 60% of the time over time, right? Just wanted to double-check, because honestly it seems like it's been under 50% lately, especially in college hoops.
Come on, y'all, stop lurking and chime in!
college bball is a real pain.. but there are some gems.. still trying to get a grasp of it.. NFL was easy imo.. and mostly won (when i bet anyway)..
good luck! and don't give up.. maybe reduce the bet amounts on "iffy" rlms? and i don't know what "iffy" means.. lol
RobustComment -
FreeFallSBR MVP
- 02-20-08
- 3365
#846spreadsheet. Check it w/o NHL and it seems to hit 60%. I think I'm doing ML's wrong even though I'm doing what LT said because they should be hitting higher.Comment -
losturmarblesSBR MVP
- 07-01-08
- 4604
#847just something to watch, many times you might get a half point move or so on the spread if the total o/u changes. many times in cbb the totals will come out pretty late, they will open at 1 number and drop 5 or 6 points really fast. i dont have a estimate scale or anything but if team A goes from +8 to +7 and looks like a rlm, it may be the fact that the books are just adjusting the spread from steam on the under (since the spread is correlated with the total).
there's a little trick you can use to check the total using the free sports insights tracker. click the little graph that shows the % and the line movement. when you open that page change the url at the very end there will be a "4" , change that to 9 and press enter. it will load a similar graph except of the total and the % on the under. totals usually have a lot less volume betting so be careful using any rlm theories on it though.Comment -
boxcarSBR Rookie
- 03-05-08
- 31
#8481 - Yes, 6 cents for Green Alerts, 10 cents for my own.
2 - No, ignore any alert of any kind where the line has moved against the alert play since OPENER.
3 - For the day-to-day sports, you probably should not start tracking until about two hours before the first game. Your family will thank you for it.
And I am a professional numbers dork too.
Thanks again.Comment -
yismanSBR Aristocracy
- 09-01-08
- 75682
#849just something to watch, many times you might get a half point move or so on the spread if the total o/u changes. many times in cbb the totals will come out pretty late, they will open at 1 number and drop 5 or 6 points really fast. i dont have a estimate scale or anything but if team A goes from +8 to +7 and looks like a rlm, it may be the fact that the books are just adjusting the spread from steam on the under (since the spread is correlated with the total).
there's a little trick you can use to check the total using the free sports insights tracker. click the little graph that shows the % and the line movement. when you open that page change the url at the very end there will be a "4" , change that to 9 and press enter. it will load a similar graph except of the total and the % on the under. totals usually have a lot less volume betting so be careful using any rlm theories on it though.[quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
[/quote]
[quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]Comment -
larryacraigSBR Hustler
- 11-08-08
- 52
#850How do you follow this
Denver opens -2 68% of the bets are on Phoenix (The dog) yet the line still drops to -1.5Comment -
mel1970SBR Rookie
- 01-15-09
- 3
#851Hey, good stuff28-0 NBA system
Everybody needs to be on this systemComment -
CapybaraSBR Posting Legend
- 08-17-08
- 11803
#853A 4-0 night in RLM by my count, nice! (Of course, no bets for me as I'm broke, but still tracking it.) Others concur w/ these findings?
I had:
NBA:
Bulls +7.5
NCAA:
Denver +8
Middle Tenn. St. +3
Canisius +2Comment -
FreeFallSBR MVP
- 02-20-08
- 3365
#854Denver didnt hit 2.5k betsComment -
losturmarblesSBR MVP
- 07-01-08
- 4604
#855anyone?
Comment -
losturmarblesSBR MVP
- 07-01-08
- 4604
#857no, a dude posted some spam shit right above me, i guess i shouldve quoted him or partially quoted him. his post has since been deleted.Comment -
LT ProfitsSBR Aristocracy
- 10-27-06
- 90963
#858Gotcha marbles, it's all good.Comment -
hajuneSBR High Roller
- 09-04-07
- 219
#859smart money moves
60% of all public money is on Baltimore. There are many streams of " smart money" on Pitt from all the major books. Think about it everybody. Baltimore had 5 turnover recoveries with 3 in scoring position. They benefited from penalites in a big way. 5 turnovers are almost a sure recipe for victory and yet they won by only 3!! They also have 2 key injuries for Sunday's game. My gut feeling is that Baltimore's great run is over.Comment -
SlimSBR MVP
- 11-13-08
- 4722
#860Like 95% on Akron vs Youngstown St. Line hasn't budged.Comment -
SlimSBR MVP
- 11-13-08
- 4722
#861Thread keeps on winning.Comment -
yismanSBR Aristocracy
- 09-01-08
- 75682
#862Oklahoma State tonight.
Public is on the Sooners heavy[quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
[/quote]
[quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]Comment -
choinflSBR Rookie
- 10-21-08
- 3
#863OK now the line is moving. What should be the pick? I am not really familiar with this thread yet. Here is the new line
2009-02-01 PITTSBURGH STEELERS -7 -6.5 49% 11% 60%
Click Here 18:20 EST ARIZONA CARDINALS 46.5 46.5 51% 89% 40%ThanksComment -
yismanSBR Aristocracy
- 09-01-08
- 75682
#864McRich, Cappy, FreeFall?[quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
[/quote]
[quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]Comment -
SexyMitSBR Hall of Famer
- 10-12-06
- 6139
#865Tonight is UTAH!If it seems to good to be true it usually is!!
I have a natural instinct to exploit market ineffieciencies!!Comment -
yismanSBR Aristocracy
- 09-01-08
- 75682
#866Jazz?
Certainly a lot of line movement on that game. Utah has gone from +2.5 to -1.[quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
[/quote]
[quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]Comment -
SexyMitSBR Hall of Famer
- 10-12-06
- 6139
#867Yes Sir that is the one...If it seems to good to be true it usually is!!
I have a natural instinct to exploit market ineffieciencies!!Comment -
FreeFallSBR MVP
- 02-20-08
- 3365
#86802/16/2009
10:35 PM
61 - Atlanta Thrashers
62 - Los Angeles Kings
+185(open) +169(now)
-203(open) -179(now)
does that mean that atlanta is a play? I'm trying to understand this with ML's for MLB and NHL. I see a 24 cent move for the fav and 16 cent move for the dog. If it's in the -200 then you have to wait for a 20 cent move, but on which side?Comment -
yismanSBR Aristocracy
- 09-01-08
- 75682
#869Denver Nuggers +ML tonight appears to be a case of the spread not moving with the public heavily on Boston.[quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
[/quote]
[quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]Comment -
pat vendittoSBR Posting Legend
- 05-07-07
- 14347
#870Glad to see someone on the board is using their head.Comment -
LT ProfitsSBR Aristocracy
- 10-27-06
- 90963
#87102/16/2009
10:35 PM
61 - Atlanta Thrashers
62 - Los Angeles Kings
+185(open) +169(now)
-203(open) -179(now)
does that mean that atlanta is a play? I'm trying to understand this with ML's for MLB and NHL. I see a 24 cent move for the fav and 16 cent move for the dog. If it's in the -200 then you have to wait for a 20 cent move, but on which side?Comment -
VonnegutSBR MVP
- 01-08-09
- 1499
#872Creighton Blue Jays tonight in NCAA, 96% of the public on them, no line movement.Comment -
SexyMitSBR Hall of Famer
- 10-12-06
- 6139
#873Chicago Bulls tonight also....If it seems to good to be true it usually is!!
I have a natural instinct to exploit market ineffieciencies!!Comment -
FreeFallSBR MVP
- 02-20-08
- 3365
#874
I just have trouble with the change in the lines. As you can see above there is two different values for the line change if you go by the dog or the fav. How do you know which to go by? I also thought if you had 200s in the ML you had to wait for a 20 cent move. But what side of the move has to be 20 cent move for it to count? The fav or the dog?
EDIT;
Another example; Bos Bruins tonight will have a 20 cent move in three more cents. However the Florida Panthers will only have moved 18 cents from +200 to +182. Do both sides have to move 20cents? Or just one?Comment -
FreeFallSBR MVP
- 02-20-08
- 3365
#875Florida and Lightening are they a play? I get confused when it crosses the 200sComment
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