When the spread doesn't move, follow the money

[Robust]

oh.. and to add.. the "Holy Grail" theory was dead on accurate!! LT, you are the man!! great tip for us squares

Robust

[LT Profits]

OK, so provide some insight to me.

The Colts/Ravens game opened at Colts -6 and it is now Colts -3.5.

The betting trends are:

Side Money Total
Ravens 47% 68% 72%
Colts 53% 34% 28%

So using the data above, what is the sharp bet?

Thanks.

Don't pay any attention to this unless the betting percantage is at least 60% (Colts were only 53). Also, I am talking ATS (Side) only, there has never been a satisfactory study on this done for for Totals in any sport except NHL in my opinion.

[LT Profits]

Ok I tryied looking at the nunmber and if I am correct on what is being said the lines to take are Oak, Balt, Hou, Stl, SF, ad AZ also possibly. Jets, CHI, and NYG. Over unders Car u, Min u, NYG o, Bal u ans SF u. Ok now tell me why I've scewed it all up!

Looking at the final numbers at SI:

At least 60% and No Line Move
49ers (L)

At least 60% and Reverse Line Move of 1/2 point or more:
Raiders (L)
Lions (W)
Rams (W)
Cardinals (W)

At least 60% and Reverse Line Move of 1 point or more:
Rams (W)
Cardinals (W)

You left out the Lions from your list, Vikes has 62% of bets and line went from -13.5 to -13. Ravens did not qualify because the Colts only had 58% of bets. I don't know how you got Houston, as the action ended up 50/50.

Again, I use Sports Insights to get my percentages and I do this for Sides Only.

[lovetobet]

LTProfits, you da man!

Nice explanations, I've always been interested in this but never took the time to nail it down. Thanks for the info. and clear explanations.

So I assume you find SI to be worth it. If you don't mind me asking, what membership do you have (I assume premium)?

Thanx again

[LT Profits]

Yeah have to get Premium Pro (something like that) to get everything.

[apk2k6]

I'm assuming you're using Pinny for you're opening and closing spreads? I use Olympic for my comparison needs. Niners wouldn't have been a play if watching Oly. The line went from -4.5 to -5 in favor of Eagles, with the majority of % on their side, which is expected to move the line up.

Maybe we can filter out the plays that have no line movement at all, and only do reverse line movements? Let's keep following this.

I have another approach though that does very very well, and all I have to do is look at the lines. I have a sheet with spread to ML conversion(using Oly for comparison only) for both NFL and NCAAF.

It works a lot better in NCAAF, but it's showing Browns +9 as a pretty strong play if the lines stay the same. The thing is, I have to monitor all the way up until around game-time before placing a wager.

[lovetobet]

LT Profit,

So are you saying that this method has also proven to work i
n HOCKEY totals?

lovetobet

[lovetobet]

OK to follow up on this I have a couple more questions for LTProfits (some of these questions are specific to Sports Insights):

1 – You mentioned above that you are using this for sides only. Does this mean the spread in NFL and NBA (as compared to the money line)? I assume you are talking about the money line for NHL and MLB and not the true sides (i.e. giving up or getting 1 ½ runs or goals)?

2 – Above you talked about this only working for sides except for hockey, are you saying that smart money moves can be followed in hockey o/u’s? You mention studies being done on this; do you know where these can be obtained (regarding hockey o/u or any other similar studies involving any sport; sides or o/u)?

3 – Do you put much weight on the individual smart money alerts at Sports Insights (specifically the ones highlighted in green)? Or do you just look at the lines yourself and ascertain for yourself?

4 – Do you put any weight on the steam play alerts?

5 – Above you mention that TB opened at -3 at CRIS and -1 ½ at Pinnacle but I only see the CRIS opening lines at Sports Insights. Did you pull the pinnacle opening line from somewhere else?

LTProfits thanks in advance for any and all help and GL tonight on your wagers. Philly/Pitt is looking good so far.

[LT Profits]

1 - Correct. ATS for NFL, NCAAF, NBA, NCAAB. ML for MLB, NHL. And although my article omitted totals, ir works with NHL totals.

2 - I pulled the numbers in my article from Sports Insights archives, and the results for totals the last few years have been ugly besides NHL.

3 - The only difference between the "green" alerts and my own discoveries is I am more willing to play half-point moves on alerts, whereas I wait for full point for my own.

4 - I only pay attention to steam alerts if the line has moved the same way as the alert since the opener. In other words, if a line opens at -6, drifts to -7, and then steams to -6.5, I tend to ignore it because the current line is still above opener.

5 - As I have said several times, I use SI percentages in tandem with sbrlines, where I have Pinny set as my opener. That said, actually being logged on to the books is always better than any line service.

[lovetobet]

LTProfits – thanks for taking the time to answer my questions. I have a couple more for you if you don’t mind (and then I’ll do a whole bunch of reading before I ever ask another question).

1- Follow up on question #3 from above – “The only difference between the "green" alerts and my own discoveries is I am more willing to play half-point moves on alerts, whereas I wait for full point for my own.” What if we are talking Hockey or Baseball (money line movement) do you have a certain amount you like to see it move specific to “green alerts” and your own discoveries?

2- Today there was a smart money “green alert” on Memphis. I had been watching the betting and line movement most of the day and up until game time, for the most part the line was moving in accordance with the percentages of betting (i.e. higher percentage of bets on Houston and the line going up). In this case do you still consider betting on the green alert or do you work with what you are seeing overall from the betting %’s and line movement (i.e. In this case assume there is not a smart money play).

3- When looking at smart money plays do you need to wait until near game time to really make a decision? I’m asking because there were a couple smart money plays in hockey and basketball today that went away by game time. Just curious how you feel about this? Depending on your answer is it different for football because the lines are out there so long (i.e. you have good enough sample size after a couple days of watching and don’t necessarily have to wait until right before kick-off)?

So I have tons more questions but I am going to read a bunch of the articles from the archive section (thanks for pointing that out) and hopefully that will answer all of my other questions.

Thanks again for taking the time to answer all of this. So is anybody else into this and taking something away from it, I think this is some cool sh*t, or am I just a big numbers dork!!!!

GL everyone (and especially you LT, nice with the 2-1 record tonight)

[jamesrg]

Wher can i read these articles ?

[Robust]

Candidates for this week so far are..

2008-10-19 PITTSBURGH STEELERS -9.5 -9.5 39% 10% 82% Click Here
13:00 EST CINCINNATI BENGALS 37 35.5 61% 90% 18%

2008-10-19 BALTIMORE RAVENS 34.5 36.5 48% 87% 85% Click Here
13:00 EST MIAMI DOLPHINS -3 -3.0 52% 13% 15%

2008-10-19 MINNESOTA VIKINGS 39.5 38.0 11% 97% 43% Click Here
13:00 EST CHICAGO BEARS -3 -3.0 89% 3% 57%

2008-10-19 DETROIT LIONS 47 46.5 22% 97% 3% Click Here
16:05 EST HOUSTON TEXANS -9 -9.0 78% 3% 97%

2008-10-19 CLEVELAND BROWNS 42.5 42.0 63% 98% 75% Click Here
16:15 EST WASHINGTON REDSKINS -7 -7.0 37% 2% 25%

2008-10-19 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 39.0 38.0 37% 54% 42% Click Here
20:15 EST TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS -10.5 -10.5 63% 46% 58%


if these don't move, i will be playing all of them.. but remember to check game day before you bet just in case they move..

Robust

Edit: and a Holy grail appears this week as well (reverse line movement)..
2008-10-19 SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -1 45.0 81%off71%
13:00 EST BUFFALO BILLS 46.5 PK 19% 29%

[Robust]

Wher can i read these articles ?

you're reading the article now.. lol

go check out the lines (please don't ask where.. read this thread) and see if you spot some good ones..

Robust

[hhsilver]

About Sport . com's trend %'s ??
--------------- open current
2008-10-16 BYU -1.5 ---- 73%
---------- TCU ----- -1.0 27%

this seems to be a sportsbook. Where do the %'s come from? Just the action at this book ? If so, how can you use these %'s in any meaningful way? I never heard of this book and wonder if sharps even bet there?

I know LT recommends sports insights , but I wanted to check out a freebie. Looks like "you get what you pay for" here. Correct me if I am wrong.


thanks

good thread and thanks LT for all your patient explanations - (unless you are a shill for sports insights :-} )

[Robust]

that is reverse line movement.. i would lean towards BYU.. but i don't follow cfb much.. my buddy is great at it.. will ask him later today..

and i have no idea if sharps bet at sports.com.. they are rated D+ from the last time i checked.. terrible customer service, but they pay as soon as five days with "***********".. a check can take a month..

the lines i get, i get from them and 2 weeks have hit 100%.. now listen to LT, yisman, etc... i am NO sharp by any means.. lol

I am riding a win streak.. i could lose all my picks this week.. but even the math concurs with what most of the lines are doing.. so i am excited about the outcomes..

Robust

[LT Profits]

LTProfits – thanks for taking the time to answer my questions. I have a couple more for you if you don’t mind (and then I’ll do a whole bunch of reading before I ever ask another question).

1- Follow up on question #3 from above – “The only difference between the "green" alerts and my own discoveries is I am more willing to play half-point moves on alerts, whereas I wait for full point for my own.” What if we are talking Hockey or Baseball (money line movement) do you have a certain amount you like to see it move specific to “green alerts” and your own discoveries?

2- Today there was a smart money “green alert” on Memphis. I had been watching the betting and line movement most of the day and up until game time, for the most part the line was moving in accordance with the percentages of betting (i.e. higher percentage of bets on Houston and the line going up). In this case do you still consider betting on the green alert or do you work with what you are seeing overall from the betting %’s and line movement (i.e. In this case assume there is not a smart money play).

3- When looking at smart money plays do you need to wait until near game time to really make a decision? I’m asking because there were a couple smart money plays in hockey and basketball today that went away by game time. Just curious how you feel about this? Depending on your answer is it different for football because the lines are out there so long (i.e. you have good enough sample size after a couple days of watching and don’t necessarily have to wait until right before kick-off)?

So I have tons more questions but I am going to read a bunch of the articles from the archive section (thanks for pointing that out) and hopefully that will answer all of my other questions.

Thanks again for taking the time to answer all of this. So is anybody else into this and taking something away from it, I think this is some cool sh*t, or am I just a big numbers dork!!!!

GL everyone (and especially you LT, nice with the 2-1 record tonight)

1 - Yes, 6 cents for Green Alerts, 10 cents for my own.

2 - No, ignore any alert of any kind where the line has moved against the alert play since OPENER.

3 - For the day-to-day sports, you probably should not start tracking until about two hours before the first game. Your family will thank you for it.

And I am a professional numbers dork too.

[LT Profits]

Wher can i read these articles ?

Reverse line movements can lead to big profits

[LT Profits]

About Sport . com's trend %'s ??
--------------- open current
2008-10-16 BYU -1.5 ---- 73%
---------- TCU ----- -1.0 27%

this seems to be a sportsbook. Where do the %'s come from? Just the action at this book ? If so, how can you use these %'s in any meaningful way? I never heard of this book and wonder if sharps even bet there?

I know LT recommends sports insights , but I wanted to check out a freebie. Looks like "you get what you pay for" here. Correct me if I am wrong.


thanks

good thread and thanks LT for all your patient explanations - (unless you are a shill for sports insights :-} )

You can get FREE SI pcts for sides only here:

http://twominutewarning.com/bettracker.htm

They may be on a delay, but close enough

[LT Profits]

that is reverse line movement.. i would lean towards BYU.. but i don't follow cfb much.. my buddy is great at it.. will ask him later today..

and i have no idea if sharps bet at sports.com.. they are rated D+ from the last time i checked.. terrible customer service, but they pay as soon as five days with "***********".. a check can take a month..

the lines i get, i get from them and 2 weeks have hit 100%.. now listen to LT, yisman, etc... i am NO sharp by any means.. lol

I am riding a win streak.. i could lose all my picks this week.. but even the math concurs with what most of the lines are doing.. so i am excited about the outcomes..

Robust

TCU is a big Holy Grail play tonight.

[Robust]

TCU is a big Holy Grail play tonight.

LOL!!

i had typed BCU, and saw it, corrected it.. wrong!! lol

TCU it definitely is!

thanks for spotting that!

Robust

[lovetobet]

LTProfits - this is straight killer info. - thanks much.

One follow up question (I know, I know, I said no more questions till I read) but you said this above "For the day-to-day sports, you probably should not start tracking until about two hours before the first game. Your family will thank you for it." What about weekly sports like football? If you wait a day or two after the line comes out is that enough time in your opinion, or do you need to wait 3 or 4 days, or do you need to wait until the day of the game to really get a good understanding?

For those above that are asking about this information, the sight that LT directed us to, Sports Insights, gives you a 1 week trial platinum membership to check out there sight. It's very cool and gives you an idea of the tools at your disposal, that is what I am currently doing.

LTProfits - Thanks for pointing out that on day-to-day action I can look a couple hours before gametime, I was locked in to the lines yesterday and my work productivity, or lack thereor, suffered immensly.

Thanks again man, you are creating a monster!!! GL everyone!!!

[Robust]

Two more reverse line movements spotted.

2008-10-19 NEW YORK JETS -3.5 -3.0 97% 90% 60%
16:15 EST OAKLAND RAIDERS 43 41.0 3% 10% 40%

2008-10-20 DENVER BRONCOS 46 48.0 78% 100% 46%
20:35 EST NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -3.5 -3.0 22% 0% 54%

Like i said before.. check them ON GAME DAY BEFORE you bet. Some lines revert back to their normal route by game day.

Robust

[LT Profits]

LTProfits - this is straight killer info. - thanks much.

One follow up question (I know, I know, I said no more questions till I read) but you said this above "For the day-to-day sports, you probably should not start tracking until about two hours before the first game. Your family will thank you for it." What about weekly sports like football? If you wait a day or two after the line comes out is that enough time in your opinion, or do you need to wait 3 or 4 days, or do you need to wait until the day of the game to really get a good understanding?

For those above that are asking about this information, the sight that LT directed us to, Sports Insights, gives you a 1 week trial platinum membership to check out there sight. It's very cool and gives you an idea of the tools at your disposal, that is what I am currently doing.

LTProfits - Thanks for pointing out that on day-to-day action I can look a couple hours before gametime, I was locked in to the lines yesterday and my work productivity, or lack thereor, suffered immensly.

Thanks again man, you are creating a monster!!! GL everyone!!!

Me personally, I start looking at CFB Wednesday and NFL on Thursday, although I admit that may be purely arbitrary.

[Masu485]

hey, so if you see something like this for MLB.


919 Tampa Bay Rays (L) KAZMIR, S +140 9.0 +130 9.0 6% 50% 45%
920 Boston Red Sox (R) MATSUZAKA, D -155 -145 94% 50% 55%

hard to read sorry, but it basically says 94% is on the side (i'm guessing Boston RUNLINE), but the MONEYLINE is moving in favor of Tampa (from +140 to +130)

but also it says there's exactly 50-50 on both side of the ML too.

so what would the play be here? do we take the runline into consideration at all? or just base it on the 50-50 and make it a no-play?

[Robust]

no play as far as i am concerned..

and it is 2 excellent pitchers playing.. (though i would lean towards boston side )

not betting it tho..

maybe someone else can help ya in the BB forum..

Robust

[Masu485]

no play as far as i am concerned..

and it is 2 excellent pitchers playing.. (though i would lean towards boston side )

not betting it tho..

maybe someone else can help ya in the BB forum..

Robust

oh, i'm not wagering on this game anyway, i'm just having trouble reading reverse line movements for MLB and NHL. and if the % on runline or puckline is involved with the ML. but thanks anyway

[LT Profits]

For MLB amd NHL, use MONEY LINE only.

Right now I see 55/45 Boston, so no play.

[Masu485]

For MLB amd NHL, use MONEY LINE only.

Right now I see 55/45 Boston, so no play.

thanks a lot LT. you're probably THE most informative poster on this whole forum for me.

also if anyone can help, i looked at sports dotcom but doesn't that only record the action placed at that book? would vegas insider be a better place? the opening lines vary a lot between the two sites

[durito]

what about on fridays if the moon is directly over the equator?

[LT Profits]

what about on fridays if the moon is directly over the equator?

Depends on whether the game is in the Northern or Southern Hemisphere.

[lovetobet]

Hey Durito,

I just saw your signature, I love it. I always screw those up, I know how to use them properly but get lazy and don't think about it, actually posted "there" instead of "their" in one of my posts above.

Masu485,
If you still aren't understanding ask some questions and I can help you out. LTProfits has spent some valuable time on this and I understand it now, so I can chip in with the explanations if needed. Also as I suggested above go to Sports Insights (where LTProfits directed us) and sign up for "their" free trial, it's definately worth it.

GL everyone

[durito]

We all make typos.

My signature is aimed at certain people with 40,000 posts on this board without using there correctly a single time.

[Masu485]

Masu485,
If you still aren't understanding ask some questions and I can help you out. LTProfits has spent some valuable time on this and I understand it now, so I can chip in with the explanations if needed. Also as I suggested above go to Sports Insights (where LTProfits directed us) and sign up for "their" free trial, it's definately worth it.

GL everyone

well maybe you can tell me the difference between sports insights and the site i was using, vegas insider. i would do the free trial, but for only a short time doesn't seem worth it. can't reverse line movement reading be done for free on vegas insider anyway, along with a lot of other sites?

i do think i understand it to some extent, but it's the NHL lines that are giving me a bit of trouble now. some places, the % isn't listed, and at vegas insider it seems a bit messed.

i guess i'll try the free trial, and hopefully it'll help me out.

but one final question, when is the best time to place a wager then for each sport? night before for football? or 10 minutes before kickoff? few hours before for baseball? i have no clue...

[keystonekid]

What about this one? What do you do? I want to do this game tonight. Thanks.

I want to do a parlay: ATS & the Over/Under

[LT Profits]

Nothing because it is only 54% and the line move matches the money.