LTA's NFL PLays

[Love The Action]

That is interesting, but doesn't necessarily surprise me. I have been teasing a lot this NFL season, primarily using the Wong principles on the sides and have found that when I pair the side with the total I have had less success than when I pair two sides. Teasing totals just isn't as profitable long term I don't think. Problem is the instant gratification thing when you have Thursday night and Monday night games. I also get -110 at my local for teasers.

That's because 6 points on a side and 6 points on a total have entirely different impacts. 6 points on a side is huge, however, not nearly as important to a total. This is why teaser "rules" generally tell you not to cross the zero or tease totals. One extra score in a game could completely nullify your 6 point tease on a total, but may not necessarily hurt your cover on the side.

[Love The Action]

Despite having action with two great local books, I've decided to put some money offshore at 5 dimes and become an SBR pro. I want to make at least a $5K deposit. What is the smoothest, most efficient and safest deposit/withdrawal method for a US citizen to avoid tax and/or other legal consequences? Thanks.

[billysink]

Despite having action with two great local books, I've decided to put some money offshore at 5 dimes and become an SBR pro. I want to make at least a $5K deposit. What is the smoothest, most efficient and safest deposit/withdrawal method for a US citizen to avoid tax and/or other legal consequences? Thanks.

They will very quickly limit a guy like you either with the limits or posted lines. I quit with them a long time ago for that reason.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 14

Play #1

Bills/Chargers over (47) 4x (Locked)

I may add another unit to this play but I want to see where the line moves. I am getting 48 at my sharper book and 47 at my squarish book, so that's always a good sign. Pinny has this one juiced up on the over at 47.5 and I expect them to make a move to 48 soon. Despite all of the Bills injuries and overall problems, they remain a top 13 offense in all of the advanced efficiency stats for both the pass and the rush, while SD is top 10 in both (top 5 in many). In addition, both offenses have big play capabilities through the air and can score quickly. However, what makes this a play is the weaknesses of the two defenses. Both defenses are in the bottom 6 of the league and I don't see any improvements coming this weekend. Bth defenses have suffered injuries to some of their best players and neither defense has recovered. Just because SD held Jax to 14 points, doesn't mean their defense has turned the corner and is now stout again. Instead, that is more an indictment on the Jax offense than an endorsement of the SD defense. The strength of both offenses comes through the air, but both the Bills' Spiller and Chargers' Matthews are capable of gashing the other team for some big plays and big rushing days. Also interesting is that both teams are top 10 in offensive yards per play, but bottom 10 in defensive yards per play. All of the stats point to the over in this game. I have this one set at 50, which may seem a little high, but the advantage of offense over defense in this game is huge. Bottom line is that I expect a shootout and I'm going to take the value here on the over. I am rolling with the over for 4x. Good luck.

Play #2

Browns/Steelers under (40) 1x (Locked) WINNER

This might get to 40.5, but its not going to 41. I was waiting to get a better number than 38 and I am happy to get 40. Because I will be busy at work unable to monitor line movement, I am jumping on the 40 now rather than risk losing that number. I think we see a game dominated by rushing and defense. The Browns are a top 10 defensive team against the pass in epa, dvoa, epa/p, wpa and sr%. However, they struggle mightily against the run where they rank in the bottom five. I expect the steelers to find success with Mendenhall and have no need to resort to their dangerous pass attack in the 2h. Pittsburgh should take command of this game and limit the browns through the air. However, the browns may find some success on the ground if Hills is ready to go against a steelers defense susceptible to the run. While this wont lead to a ton of points, the browns should be able to get some first downs and keep the clock moving. I have this game set at 37 and would have played the under at 39. Once I was able to get 40, I had to jump on it despite the steam on the over. I think this one closes below 39 illustrating that this movement on the over was made more for a better number on the under than a true move on the over. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Texans/Bengals under (39) 1x (Locked)

Most of the market is at 38.5 or 38 right now, so when one my locals moved to 39, I jumped on it. Good thing too, as they moved right back down to 38.5 within 5 minutes of me locking this in. I actually wanted to get 40, but I'm not sure this gets there and I didn't want to lose out on the 39. I like this play enough to make it a 2x play if I like the line movement before game time and I can still get a decent number no lower than 38. You have two teams with rookie quarterbacks squaring off after the 12th game of the season when rookies tend to hit the wall (especially rookie qb's). Those rookies are going to be against two of the best defenses according to the advanced stats. However, each teams' defensive strength is especially successful against each teams' offensive strength. On offense, Houston needs to run the ball with success to take some pressure off of Yates (even if Delhomme plays a bit). However, Cincy's run defense is top 5 in the league in defensive rushing EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. Therefore, I don't see Houston finding a ton of success on the ground against Cincy. Similarly, on offense, Cincy will try to get the ball to AJ Green through the air but will face off against Houston's top 3 defense against the pass in EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. However, even if Cincy tries to run the ball with Benson, you still have to face Houston's to 10 run defense in the same advanced statistical categories. Bottom line is that I think you see both defenses come after these young qb's, stop the run and this one turns into a defensive struggle. Low total unders are always susceptible to turnover or special teams touchdowns, so we just need to cross our fingers and hope those don't happen. Otherwise, I see this one staying under the posted total and have this set at 36.5 giving us 2.5 points of value. I am rolling with the under for 1x now and might add to this one down the road. Good luck.

Play #4

Falcons/Panthers over (47) 2x (Locked)

I know that the Falcons have played to 9 straight unders because I've cashed quite a few of them. However, in this game, I think the offense will be too much. Carolina will be playing at home where they have been especially dangerous. In addition, Carolina will be playing without two of its best defensive line starters who were placed in IR this week. That opens Atlanta up for Turner to have a big game and there is no doubt Turner loves playing against the Panthers who he has rushed for over 750 yards against throughout his career. Carolina's defense is bottom 5 in the league against both rushing and passing and in DVOA, EVA, EVA/P, WPA and SR%. I think we see Atlanta run over Carolina quite easily and explode for some big plays through the play action pass with Matty Ice to Jones and White on the outside. However, this play really comes down to Carolina's offense and I think Cam and the boys play well this Sunday. Atlanta is a bit slow on defense and with Smith burning down the field opening up so much of the Panther playbook, I think the Panthers put at least 3 td's in the endzone. Atlanta's defense is respectable overall, coming in top 15 overall in advanced efficiency stats, but can struggle on the road at times with the pass. I think we see Carolnia get behind early which will force them to turn to the pass. This will open up the running lanes for Newton who should have some successful scrambling plays. In the first game this year, this matchup turned in 48 points. I expect a similar type game on Sunday. I have this one set at 50 and we're getting a field goal of value. I am rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #5

Giants/Cowboys over (50) 1x (Locked)

I was hoping to wait on this game and get a number around 49 or 48 as the early money trended under. However, this morning the number steamed all the way up to 50.5 and even 51 at some outlets, so I feel fortunate to get 50. I may add to this one down the road as long as I can get it under the key number of 51. You have two of the best passing offenses and quarterbacks in the league going against two weakened secondaries. Even though both defenses sport defensive lines that can be great at times, both defensive lines have been extremely inconsistent throughout this season. I think we see this become a shootout because both teams' offensive strengths are through the air where they rank top 10 in DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR% and both teams will struggle to stop the receivers they will face. I have this one set at 53 and we this is another game where we are getting 3 points or more of value. I am rolling with the over for 1x now and may add another unit down the road. Good luck.

[shocktopme]

.

Nice looking picks bud!!!!

[Pick'nParlays]

i like the over LTA!

[upscope]

Hey LTA, in your write-UP for the Fal/Pan game you said you're rolling for 1x but in bold you have 2x??

Maybe you added somewhere & I missed it?? This is a 2x play though correct??

[Love The Action]

Hey LTA, in your write-UP for the Fal/Pan game you said you're rolling for 1x but in bold you have 2x??

Maybe you added somewhere & I missed it?? This is a 2x play though correct??

Just a typo (fixed it), it was always 2x for that over. Always go by what is in bold at the top.

Might add 1x to the texans under as well. I really like todays card and am expecting a big day. GL

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 14

Play #1

Bills/Chargers over (47) 4x (Locked)

I may add another unit to this play but I want to see where the line moves. I am getting 48 at my sharper book and 47 at my squarish book, so that's always a good sign. Pinny has this one juiced up on the over at 47.5 and I expect them to make a move to 48 soon. Despite all of the Bills injuries and overall problems, they remain a top 13 offense in all of the advanced efficiency stats for both the pass and the rush, while SD is top 10 in both (top 5 in many). In addition, both offenses have big play capabilities through the air and can score quickly. However, what makes this a play is the weaknesses of the two defenses. Both defenses are in the bottom 6 of the league and I don't see any improvements coming this weekend. Bth defenses have suffered injuries to some of their best players and neither defense has recovered. Just because SD held Jax to 14 points, doesn't mean their defense has turned the corner and is now stout again. Instead, that is more an indictment on the Jax offense than an endorsement of the SD defense. The strength of both offenses comes through the air, but both the Bills' Spiller and Chargers' Matthews are capable of gashing the other team for some big plays and big rushing days. Also interesting is that both teams are top 10 in offensive yards per play, but bottom 10 in defensive yards per play. All of the stats point to the over in this game. I have this one set at 50, which may seem a little high, but the advantage of offense over defense in this game is huge. Bottom line is that I expect a shootout and I'm going to take the value here on the over. I am rolling with the over for 4x. Good luck.

Play #2

Browns/Steelers under (40) 1x (Locked) WINNER

This might get to 40.5, but its not going to 41. I was waiting to get a better number than 38 and I am happy to get 40. Because I will be busy at work unable to monitor line movement, I am jumping on the 40 now rather than risk losing that number. I think we see a game dominated by rushing and defense. The Browns are a top 10 defensive team against the pass in epa, dvoa, epa/p, wpa and sr%. However, they struggle mightily against the run where they rank in the bottom five. I expect the steelers to find success with Mendenhall and have no need to resort to their dangerous pass attack in the 2h. Pittsburgh should take command of this game and limit the browns through the air. However, the browns may find some success on the ground if Hills is ready to go against a steelers defense susceptible to the run. While this wont lead to a ton of points, the browns should be able to get some first downs and keep the clock moving. I have this game set at 37 and would have played the under at 39. Once I was able to get 40, I had to jump on it despite the steam on the over. I think this one closes below 39 illustrating that this movement on the over was made more for a better number on the under than a true move on the over. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Texans/Bengals under (39) 2x (Locked)

Most of the market is at 38.5 or 38 right now, so when one my locals moved to 39, I jumped on it. I actually wanted to get 40, but I'm not sure this gets there and I didn't want to lose out on the 39. You have two teams with rookie quarterbacks squaring off after the 12th game of the season when rookies tend to hit the wall (especially rookie qb's). Those rookies are going to be against two of the best defenses according to the advanced stats. However, each teams' defensive strength is especially successful against each teams' offensive strength. On offense, Houston needs to run the ball with success to take some pressure off of Yates (even if Delhomme plays a bit). However, Cincy's run defense is top 5 in the league in defensive rushing EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. Therefore, I don't see Houston finding a ton of success on the ground against Cincy. Similarly, on offense, Cincy will try to get the ball to AJ Green through the air but will face off against Houston's top 3 defense against the pass in EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. However, even if Cincy tries to run the ball with Benson, you still have to face Houston's top 10 run defense in the same advanced statistical categories. Bottom line is that I think you see both defenses come after these young qb's, stop the run and this one turns into a defensive struggle. Low total unders are always susceptible to turnover or special teams touchdowns, so we just need to cross our fingers and hope those don't happen. Otherwise, I see this one staying under the posted total and have this set at 36.5 giving us 2.5 points of value. I am rolling with the under for 2x. Good luck.

Play #4

Falcons/Panthers over (47) 2x (Locked)

I know that the Falcons have played to 9 straight unders because I've cashed quite a few of them. However, in this game, I think the offense will be too much. Carolina will be playing at home where they have been especially dangerous. In addition, Carolina will be playing without two of its best defensive line starters who were placed in IR this week. That opens Atlanta up for Turner to have a big game and there is no doubt Turner loves playing against the Panthers who he has rushed for over 750 yards against throughout his career. Carolina's defense is bottom 5 in the league against both rushing and passing and in DVOA, EVA, EVA/P, WPA and SR%. I think we see Atlanta run over Carolina quite easily and explode for some big plays through the play action pass with Matty Ice to Jones and White on the outside. However, this play really comes down to Carolina's offense and I think Cam and the boys play well this Sunday. Atlanta is a bit slow on defense and with Smith burning down the field opening up so much of the Panther playbook, I think the Panthers put at least 3 td's in the endzone. Atlanta's defense is respectable overall, coming in top 15 overall in advanced efficiency stats, but can struggle on the road at times with the pass. I think we see Carolnia get behind early which will force them to turn to the pass. This will open up the running lanes for Newton who should have some successful scrambling plays. In the first game this year, this matchup turned in 48 points. I expect a similar type game on Sunday. I have this one set at 50 and we're getting a field goal of value. I am rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #5

Giants/Cowboys over (50) 1x (Locked)

I was hoping to wait on this game and get a number around 49 or 48 as the early money trended under. However, this morning the number steamed all the way up to 50.5 and even 51 at some outlets, so I feel fortunate to get 50. I may add to this one down the road as long as I can get it under the key number of 51. You have two of the best passing offenses and quarterbacks in the league going against two weakened secondaries. Even though both defenses sport defensive lines that can be great at times, both defensive lines have been extremely inconsistent throughout this season. I think we see this become a shootout because both teams' offensive strengths are through the air where they rank top 10 in DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR% and both teams will struggle to stop the receivers they will face. I have this one set at 53 and we this is another game where we are getting 3 points or more of value. I am rolling with the over for 1x now and may add another unit down the road. Good luck.

Added 1x to Play #3 for total of 2x Texans/Bengals under (39) (Locked). Correct units denoted above.

The lack of Andre Johnson in this game, really cements this as a 2x worthy game. With Yates on the road for the first time as a starter, Kubiak will not force anything through the air without Johnson. This keeps the ball on the ground and the clock moving. It also plays into the hands of the Bengals defense who are much better against the run than the pass without Leon Hall at cornerback. I really like this game to stay under 39. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Where is the sharp money going to take this Bears/Broncos line. I can get +3.5 (-110), +3(+105) and the ML at +155.

With the Bears in a bad injury state right now, including Forte, Cutler and now Major Wright at an already thin Safety position, will the sharp money push this number up to +4 or is this one headed in the Bears direction? Tebow love is in full effect, but he has not faced a defense like this Bears defense. I suspect them force him to beat them with his arm. I really want to back the Bears in this spot.

Where does this line end up and does Tebow continue this streak? He's not a dog today....

[rcjiii]

Are you not on the unders for Chicago and Denver?

Chicago will have little to no offense without Cutler and more importantly Forte. Chicago has a top 8 defense against the run, which is Denver's only real threat.

[Love The Action]

Are you not on the unders for Chicago and Denver?

Chicago will have little to no offense without Cutler and more importantly Forte. Chicago has a top 8 defense against the run, which is Denver's only real threat.

I have an under lean, but I want to see where the line ends up. I would like to get 37 if at all possible. Denver's defense has played well recently, but are still ranked in the bottom third of the league in the advanced statistics. Von Miller is playing and that is huge for the Broncos defense. Nevertheless, teams make adjustments and it's time for Martz to gear the Bears offense to what Hanie does best -- rollouts and better use of his mobility are key. I also expect them to pound Barber all day long and use Bell as well. I think the Bears win with some surprising offensive production and they are always a threat to score on defense and special teams. I have this total set at 35.5, which is right where the number is at. If I can get 37, I would be more inclined to make this a play on the under.

I am strongly considering a 0.50x action parlay with the Bears ML (+165)/Under (37)(-130) which pays out at 3:1 as an alternative to playing the Bears or the under on their own.

[Love The Action]

Nice line movement so far. Texans/Bengals just steamed down to 37.5 with the under juiced, while Bills/Chargers just got up to 48.5 with the over juiced at Pinny

[GChild]

LTA Chicago love is hard to take today! There offense is hideous.

[815Sox]

I hate Tebow so much, I'd love to see my Bears beat him. I don't think Tebow is very good. I just really cannot figure out how this game is going to go. What we do know is that the Bears cannot score, so they have to score points from the D if they want to have a shot at winning.

[Love The Action]

Titans/Saints to go under 50. What do you think LTA?

I have a strong lean in the direction, but still have some work to do on that one. I would probably only play it at 51 though. The key to this under, is getting 51.

No play on this game. I wanted to go with the under, but once I looked at this in-depth, I just can't trust either defense. I think we have some strong factors pointing to the under with the Saints on the road and outside on grass for the first time in awhile, but the defensive stats just don't give me enough to make an under play. I have this set at 50, so there is a little bit of value at 51 if you can get it. That is one of the most important key totals number in the NFL, so if you like the under, be sure to wait for that number. If someone out there likes the over, try to get it below 51. I lean under but no play. Good luck.

[GChild]

I hate Tebow so much, I'd love to see my Bears beat him. I don't think Tebow is very good. I just really cannot figure out how this game is going to go. What we do know is that the Bears cannot score, so they have to score points from the D if they want to have a shot at winning.

How sad is that! Just when I said to myself 2 weeks ago....wow for the fist time in my bears life we look great! Boom cutler down, boom forte down, boom by by!

[Love The Action]

LTA Chicago love is hard to take today! There offense is hideous.

The NFL is about adjustments and just when you think you know how a team is going to play, they will play the opposite.

The stats have the Bears -1.5 in this game. Once you make some adjustments for injury, they go to +2, which gives us a little value. Plus, this is the best defense Tebow will have faced all season. I think this is a field goal game that can go either way.

[Trivial]

Here are some I am looking at.

Bills Over (like LTA)
Bills +7.5
Carolina +3
Titans +3.5
Washington +9
Indy +16.5
Chicago +3.5
Jags +3
Giants +3.5

[GChild]

The NFL is about adjustments and just when you think you know how a team is going to play, they will play the opposite.

The stats have the Bears -1.5 in this game. Once you make some adjustments for injury, they go to +2, which gives us a little value. Plus, this is the best defense Tebow will have faced all season. I think this is a field goal game that can go either way.

That's why your a winner and I hold my **** in my hand when I think I know what I'm talking about.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 14

Play #1

Bills/Chargers over (47) 4x (Locked)

I may add another unit to this play but I want to see where the line moves. I am getting 48 at my sharper book and 47 at my squarish book, so that's always a good sign. Pinny has this one juiced up on the over at 47.5 and I expect them to make a move to 48 soon. Despite all of the Bills injuries and overall problems, they remain a top 13 offense in all of the advanced efficiency stats for both the pass and the rush, while SD is top 10 in both (top 5 in many). In addition, both offenses have big play capabilities through the air and can score quickly. However, what makes this a play is the weaknesses of the two defenses. Both defenses are in the bottom 6 of the league and I don't see any improvements coming this weekend. Bth defenses have suffered injuries to some of their best players and neither defense has recovered. Just because SD held Jax to 14 points, doesn't mean their defense has turned the corner and is now stout again. Instead, that is more an indictment on the Jax offense than an endorsement of the SD defense. The strength of both offenses comes through the air, but both the Bills' Spiller and Chargers' Matthews are capable of gashing the other team for some big plays and big rushing days. Also interesting is that both teams are top 10 in offensive yards per play, but bottom 10 in defensive yards per play. All of the stats point to the over in this game. I have this one set at 50, which may seem a little high, but the advantage of offense over defense in this game is huge. Bottom line is that I expect a shootout and I'm going to take the value here on the over. I am rolling with the over for 4x. Good luck.

Play #2

Browns/Steelers under (40) 1x (Locked) WINNER

This might get to 40.5, but its not going to 41. I was waiting to get a better number than 38 and I am happy to get 40. Because I will be busy at work unable to monitor line movement, I am jumping on the 40 now rather than risk losing that number. I think we see a game dominated by rushing and defense. The Browns are a top 10 defensive team against the pass in epa, dvoa, epa/p, wpa and sr%. However, they struggle mightily against the run where they rank in the bottom five. I expect the steelers to find success with Mendenhall and have no need to resort to their dangerous pass attack in the 2h. Pittsburgh should take command of this game and limit the browns through the air. However, the browns may find some success on the ground if Hills is ready to go against a steelers defense susceptible to the run. While this wont lead to a ton of points, the browns should be able to get some first downs and keep the clock moving. I have this game set at 37 and would have played the under at 39. Once I was able to get 40, I had to jump on it despite the steam on the over. I think this one closes below 39 illustrating that this movement on the over was made more for a better number on the under than a true move on the over. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Texans/Bengals under (39) 2x (Locked)

Most of the market is at 38.5 or 38 right now, so when one my locals moved to 39, I jumped on it. I actually wanted to get 40, but I'm not sure this gets there and I didn't want to lose out on the 39. You have two teams with rookie quarterbacks squaring off after the 12th game of the season when rookies tend to hit the wall (especially rookie qb's). Those rookies are going to be against two of the best defenses according to the advanced stats. However, each teams' defensive strength is especially successful against each teams' offensive strength. On offense, Houston needs to run the ball with success to take some pressure off of Yates (even if Delhomme plays a bit). However, Cincy's run defense is top 5 in the league in defensive rushing EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. Therefore, I don't see Houston finding a ton of success on the ground against Cincy. Similarly, on offense, Cincy will try to get the ball to AJ Green through the air but will face off against Houston's top 3 defense against the pass in EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. However, even if Cincy tries to run the ball with Benson, you still have to face Houston's top 10 run defense in the same advanced statistical categories. Bottom line is that I think you see both defenses come after these young qb's, stop the run and this one turns into a defensive struggle. Plus, the lack of Andre Johnson in this game, really cements this as a 2x worthy game. With Yates on the road for the first time as a starter, Kubiak will not force anything through the air without Johnson. This keeps the ball on the ground and the clock moving. It also plays into the hands of the Bengals defense who are much better against the run than the pass without Leon Hall at cornerback. Low total unders are always susceptible to turnover or special teams touchdowns, so we just need to cross our fingers and hope those don't happen. Otherwise, I see this one staying under the posted total and have this set at 36.5 giving us 2.5 points of value. I am rolling with the under for 2x. Good luck.

Play #4

Falcons/Panthers over (47) 2x (Locked)

I know that the Falcons have played to 9 straight unders because I've cashed quite a few of them. However, in this game, I think the offense will be too much. Carolina will be playing at home where they have been especially dangerous. In addition, Carolina will be playing without two of its best defensive line starters who were placed in IR this week. That opens Atlanta up for Turner to have a big game and there is no doubt Turner loves playing against the Panthers who he has rushed for over 750 yards against throughout his career. Carolina's defense is bottom 5 in the league against both rushing and passing and in DVOA, EVA, EVA/P, WPA and SR%. I think we see Atlanta run over Carolina quite easily and explode for some big plays through the play action pass with Matty Ice to Jones and White on the outside. However, this play really comes down to Carolina's offense and I think Cam and the boys play well this Sunday. Atlanta is a bit slow on defense and with Smith burning down the field opening up so much of the Panther playbook, I think the Panthers put at least 3 td's in the endzone. Atlanta's defense is respectable overall, coming in top 15 overall in advanced efficiency stats, but can struggle on the road at times with the pass. I think we see Carolnia get behind early which will force them to turn to the pass. This will open up the running lanes for Newton who should have some successful scrambling plays. In the first game this year, this matchup turned in 48 points. I expect a similar type game on Sunday. I have this one set at 50 and we're getting a field goal of value. I am rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #5

Giants/Cowboys over (50) 1x (Locked)

I was hoping to wait on this game and get a number around 49 or 48 as the early money trended under. However, this morning the number steamed all the way up to 50.5 and even 51 at some outlets, so I feel fortunate to get 50. I may add to this one down the road as long as I can get it under the key number of 51. You have two of the best passing offenses and quarterbacks in the league going against two weakened secondaries. Even though both defenses sport defensive lines that can be great at times, both defensive lines have been extremely inconsistent throughout this season. I think we see this become a shootout because both teams' offensive strengths are through the air where they rank top 10 in DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR% and both teams will struggle to stop the receivers they will face. I have this one set at 53 and we this is another game where we are getting 3 points or more of value. I am rolling with the over for 1x now and may add another unit down the road. Good luck.

ACTION PARLAY (Not for Records win or lose)

Bears ML (+165)/Under (37)(-135) 0.50x to win 1.7x (Locked)

I don't release parlays as plays, but I also don't play parlays unless I am 100% convinced that they cash. I love the payout on this play and fully expect to cash this correlated parlay ticket. The Bears defense should put an end to this Tebow winning streak. Other than in the Jets game, Tebow has not faced such a dominate defense. However, I would argue this Bears defense is better than what NYJ has to offer. If you look at the advanced efficiency stats against both the pass and the run, the Bears come in at the top 5 of the leage in defensive rushing and passing DVOA, EVA, EVA/P, WPA and SR%. On the other side, the Broncos are not anywhere near as highly rated and are middle of the pack. However, during their winning streak, Von Miller has been dominate in leading them to victory. I would actually argue that the Broncos defense has had just as much if not more to do with their winning streak than Tebow. In this game, they will be facing a Bears offense that is without Cutler and Forte. With Hanie at QB they have not found much success because of his turnovers. However, this will be his third start and I expect improvement. I also expect a less aggressive game plan from Martz that is more conducive to Hanie's strengths. I do not think they will stick with those 7 step drops. Instead, look for quick passes, rollouts and other plays that will help accentuate Hanie's strengths. The Broncos are the favorite for one of the few times during Tebow's successful streak and the public is firmly behind them in this game. I think that gives us a great fade opportunity. I am going to monitor the line and I may still have other plays in this game, but for now I am locking in this action parlay. Good luck.

[Galante118]

hey just wondering if you have a ytd for NFL? i know you know your shit and are as solid as they come but just wondering how you been doing, BOL today im sure ill be on a few

[Love The Action]

hey just wondering if you have a ytd for NFL? i know you know your shit and are as solid as they come but just wondering how you been doing, BOL today im sure ill be on a few

Sure, I update at the end of each week. Just check back a page or two. Been up and down all season treading water but ready to go on a big run to end the year and feeling great about today's plays.

[jas19illini]

my book has bears under at 35.5. :/ worth a play still?

[Donnie Brasco]

Wrong answer on bears, denver 16-6 type of thing. Bears may not score. Denver def and touchdown jesus do it again. Also titans +3.5, texans +3, oakland +11.5, skins +9, zona under 40, den under 38.5, niners -3.5, bol!

[rnoutlaw21]

Hey LTA, my book has Bears at 35.5, would you go that low on the parlay?

Sorry looks like someone already posted this

[Love The Action]

Titans/Saints to go under 50. What do you think LTA?

I have a strong lean in the direction, but still have some work to do on that one. I would probably only play it at 51 though. The key to this under, is getting 51.

No play on this game. I wanted to go with the under, but once I looked at this in-depth, I just can't trust either defense. I think we have some strong factors pointing to the under with the Saints on the road and outside on grass for the first time in awhile, but the defensive stats just don't give me enough to make an under play. I have this set at 50, so there is a little bit of value at 51 if you can get it. That is one of the most important key totals number in the NFL, so if you like the under, be sure to wait for that number. If someone out there likes the over, try to get it below 51. I lean under but no play. Good luck.

Should have trusted my gut on this one. I knew the market was getting set up for some steam on the under as soon as it hit 51. I should have hit that under 51 for 1x while I had the chance. Now it's all the way down to 48.5 after some big steam. Oh well, I still lean to the under but can't play it now. Plus, the fact that you can't trust either defense today looms large. I think one was better left as a lean despite the line movement. Would have been nice to beat this closer though.

[Love The Action]

my book has bears under at 35.5. :/ worth a play still?

Hey LTA, my book has Bears at 35.5, would you go that low on the parlay?

Sorry looks like someone already posted this

If you look at my post, you will see that I am playing the under (37)(-135) in my parlay and buying up to the key number of 37. This gives me a little extra insurance on the under without getting hit too hard on the odds since we are still playing a big dog to win. Getting this one at the key number of 37 is important in my opinion.

[Love The Action]

Wrong answer on bears, denver 16-6 type of thing. Bears may not score. Denver def and touchdown jesus do it again. Also titans +3.5, texans +3, oakland +11.5, skins +9, zona under 40, den under 38.5, niners -3.5, bol!

Perhaps, we'll see. Denver will never lose I guess.

Hey, where the heck did you get the Bears/Denver under at 38.5? That one opened at 36.5 under the key number of 37 and got hit by under money immediately

That Niners under was appealing earlier in the week, but with Cardinals on revenge, Patrick Willis being out which really hurts the Niners defense, plus all the over steam has me leaning over and Cardinals plus the points now. That Willis injury really kills SF.

Like that Skins play, but like them a little more in a teaser. Good luck on your plays

[jas19illini]

If you look at my post, you will see that I am playing the under (37)(-135) in my parlay and buying up to the key number of 37. This gives me a little extra insurance on the under without getting hit too hard on the odds since we are still playing a big dog to win. Getting this one at the key number of 37 is important in my opinion.

I didnt catch that you bought up to -37. My fault. Thank you for clarifying though.

My book doesnt allow buying up to 37 in a parlay. That sucks. Oh well. Im gonna roll with the 35.5 for a small amount anyhow. Maybe ill get lucky.

[Krazymojo]

at least that bear play is not for record im with tebow today BOL

[Love The Action]

I didnt catch that you bought up to -37. My fault. Thank you for clarifying though.

My book doesnt allow buying up to 37 in a parlay. That sucks. Oh well. Im gonna roll with the 35.5 for a small amount anyhow. Maybe ill get lucky.

Good luck!

[Love The Action]

at least that bear play is not for record im with tebow today BOL

Just because it's a parlay. I really like the Bears today and might play them on the side as well. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Wow, NO/Tenn total down to 47.5. I am really starting to regret not playing that under at 51

[upscope]

I simply cannot fade Tebow until he @ least loses once.