LTA's NFL PLays

[Love The Action]

damn tough break lta, luckily i had broncos straight up.. gotta love Tebow when it comes to just winning, not covering! if you like god, you like tebow

That's ridiculous dude.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 14

Play #1

Bills/Chargers over (47) 4x (Locked) PUSH

I may add another unit to this play but I want to see where the line moves. I am getting 48 at my sharper book and 47 at my squarish book, so that's always a good sign. Pinny has this one juiced up on the over at 47.5 and I expect them to make a move to 48 soon. Despite all of the Bills injuries and overall problems, they remain a top 13 offense in all of the advanced efficiency stats for both the pass and the rush, while SD is top 10 in both (top 5 in many). In addition, both offenses have big play capabilities through the air and can score quickly. However, what makes this a play is the weaknesses of the two defenses. Both defenses are in the bottom 6 of the league and I don't see any improvements coming this weekend. Bth defenses have suffered injuries to some of their best players and neither defense has recovered. Just because SD held Jax to 14 points, doesn't mean their defense has turned the corner and is now stout again. Instead, that is more an indictment on the Jax offense than an endorsement of the SD defense. The strength of both offenses comes through the air, but both the Bills' Spiller and Chargers' Matthews are capable of gashing the other team for some big plays and big rushing days. Also interesting is that both teams are top 10 in offensive yards per play, but bottom 10 in defensive yards per play. All of the stats point to the over in this game. I have this one set at 50, which may seem a little high, but the advantage of offense over defense in this game is huge. Bottom line is that I expect a shootout and I'm going to take the value here on the over. I am rolling with the over for 4x. Good luck.

Play #2

Browns/Steelers under (40) 1x (Locked) WINNER

This might get to 40.5, but its not going to 41. I was waiting to get a better number than 38 and I am happy to get 40. Because I will be busy at work unable to monitor line movement, I am jumping on the 40 now rather than risk losing that number. I think we see a game dominated by rushing and defense. The Browns are a top 10 defensive team against the pass in epa, dvoa, epa/p, wpa and sr%. However, they struggle mightily against the run where they rank in the bottom five. I expect the steelers to find success with Mendenhall and have no need to resort to their dangerous pass attack in the 2h. Pittsburgh should take command of this game and limit the browns through the air. However, the browns may find some success on the ground if Hills is ready to go against a steelers defense susceptible to the run. While this wont lead to a ton of points, the browns should be able to get some first downs and keep the clock moving. I have this game set at 37 and would have played the under at 39. Once I was able to get 40, I had to jump on it despite the steam on the over. I think this one closes below 39 illustrating that this movement on the over was made more for a better number on the under than a true move on the over. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Texans/Bengals under (39) 2x (Locked) PUSH

Most of the market is at 38.5 or 38 right now, so when one my locals moved to 39, I jumped on it. I actually wanted to get 40, but I'm not sure this gets there and I didn't want to lose out on the 39. You have two teams with rookie quarterbacks squaring off after the 12th game of the season when rookies tend to hit the wall (especially rookie qb's). Those rookies are going to be against two of the best defenses according to the advanced stats. However, each teams' defensive strength is especially successful against each teams' offensive strength. On offense, Houston needs to run the ball with success to take some pressure off of Yates (even if Delhomme plays a bit). However, Cincy's run defense is top 5 in the league in defensive rushing EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. Therefore, I don't see Houston finding a ton of success on the ground against Cincy. Similarly, on offense, Cincy will try to get the ball to AJ Green through the air but will face off against Houston's top 3 defense against the pass in EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. However, even if Cincy tries to run the ball with Benson, you still have to face Houston's top 10 run defense in the same advanced statistical categories. Bottom line is that I think you see both defenses come after these young qb's, stop the run and this one turns into a defensive struggle. Plus, the lack of Andre Johnson in this game, really cements this as a 2x worthy game. With Yates on the road for the first time as a starter, Kubiak will not force anything through the air without Johnson. This keeps the ball on the ground and the clock moving. It also plays into the hands of the Bengals defense who are much better against the run than the pass without Leon Hall at cornerback. Low total unders are always susceptible to turnover or special teams touchdowns, so we just need to cross our fingers and hope those don't happen. Otherwise, I see this one staying under the posted total and have this set at 36.5 giving us 2.5 points of value. I am rolling with the under for 2x. Good luck.

Play #4

Falcons/Panthers over (47) 2x (Locked) WINNER

I know that the Falcons have played to 9 straight unders because I've cashed quite a few of them. However, in this game, I think the offense will be too much. Carolina will be playing at home where they have been especially dangerous. In addition, Carolina will be playing without two of its best defensive line starters who were placed in IR this week. That opens Atlanta up for Turner to have a big game and there is no doubt Turner loves playing against the Panthers who he has rushed for over 750 yards against throughout his career. Carolina's defense is bottom 5 in the league against both rushing and passing and in DVOA, EVA, EVA/P, WPA and SR%. I think we see Atlanta run over Carolina quite easily and explode for some big plays through the play action pass with Matty Ice to Jones and White on the outside. However, this play really comes down to Carolina's offense and I think Cam and the boys play well this Sunday. Atlanta is a bit slow on defense and with Smith burning down the field opening up so much of the Panther playbook, I think the Panthers put at least 3 td's in the endzone. Atlanta's defense is respectable overall, coming in top 15 overall in advanced efficiency stats, but can struggle on the road at times with the pass. I think we see Carolnia get behind early which will force them to turn to the pass. This will open up the running lanes for Newton who should have some successful scrambling plays. In the first game this year, this matchup turned in 48 points. I expect a similar type game on Sunday. I have this one set at 50 and we're getting a field goal of value. I am rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #5

Giants/Cowboys over (50) 1x and over (49) 1x for total of 2x (Locked)

I was hoping to wait on this game and get a number around 49 or 48 as the early money trended under. However, this morning the number steamed all the way up to 50.5 and even 51 at some outlets, so I feel fortunate to get 50. I may add to this one down the road as long as I can get it under the key number of 51. You have two of the best passing offenses and quarterbacks in the league going against two weakened secondaries. Even though both defenses sport defensive lines that can be great at times, both defensive lines have been extremely inconsistent throughout this season. I think we see this become a shootout because both teams' offensive strengths are through the air where they rank top 10 in DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR% and both teams will struggle to stop the receivers they will face. I have this one set at 53 and we this is another game where we are getting 3 points or more of value. I am rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #6 LOSS

Bears ML (+160) 0.50x (Locked)

&

Parlay

Bears ML (+165)/Under (37)(-135) 0.50x to win 1.7x (Locked)

I love the Bears in this spot as a great public fade. I think the Bears win this game outright as Tebow has never faced such an aggressive and athletic defense all year. If the Bears win but the game stays under, this play will be considered a push. This is an official play now. Total risk of 1x for total payout possibility of 2.5x. My thoughts about this game are below from the earlier parlay writeup. Good luck.

I love the payout on this play and fully expect to cash this correlated parlay ticket. The Bears defense should put an end to this Tebow winning streak. Other than in the Jets game, Tebow has not faced such a dominate defense. However, I would argue this Bears defense is better than what NYJ has to offer. If you look at the advanced efficiency stats against both the pass and the run, the Bears come in at the top 5 of the leage in defensive rushing and passing DVOA, EVA, EVA/P, WPA and SR%. On the other side, the Broncos are not anywhere near as highly rated and are middle of the pack. However, during their winning streak, Von Miller has been dominate in leading them to victory. I would actually argue that the Broncos defense has had just as much if not more to do with their winning streak than Tebow. In this game, they will be facing a Bears offense that is without Cutler and Forte. With Hanie at QB they have not found much success because of his turnovers. However, this will be his third start and I expect improvement. I also expect a less aggressive game plan from Martz that is more conducive to Hanie's strengths. I do not think they will stick with those 7 step drops. Instead, look for quick passes, rollouts and other plays that will help accentuate Hanie's strengths. The Broncos are the favorite for one of the few times during Tebow's successful streak and the public is firmly behind them in this game. I think that gives us a great fade opportunity. I am going to monitor the line and I may still have other plays in this game, but for now I am locking in this action parlay. Good luck.

Added 1x to Play #5 for total of 2x. Correct units denoted above.

Line movement doesn't scare me. Might actually tease the over with the Giants as well. Good luck.

[MrXYZ]

Can't believe this sh*t, losing the SD play by 0.5!!! I'm on this last over at 49, GL everyone, lets get this.

[fecgp40]

Added 1x to Play #5 for total of 2x. Correct units denoted above. Line movement doesn't scare me. Might actually tease the over with the Giants as well. Good luck.

I was thinking about teasing this way as well. How many pts are you teasing LTA? 6?

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 14

Play #1

Bills/Chargers over (47) 4x (Locked) PUSH

I may add another unit to this play but I want to see where the line moves. I am getting 48 at my sharper book and 47 at my squarish book, so that's always a good sign. Pinny has this one juiced up on the over at 47.5 and I expect them to make a move to 48 soon. Despite all of the Bills injuries and overall problems, they remain a top 13 offense in all of the advanced efficiency stats for both the pass and the rush, while SD is top 10 in both (top 5 in many). In addition, both offenses have big play capabilities through the air and can score quickly. However, what makes this a play is the weaknesses of the two defenses. Both defenses are in the bottom 6 of the league and I don't see any improvements coming this weekend. Bth defenses have suffered injuries to some of their best players and neither defense has recovered. Just because SD held Jax to 14 points, doesn't mean their defense has turned the corner and is now stout again. Instead, that is more an indictment on the Jax offense than an endorsement of the SD defense. The strength of both offenses comes through the air, but both the Bills' Spiller and Chargers' Matthews are capable of gashing the other team for some big plays and big rushing days. Also interesting is that both teams are top 10 in offensive yards per play, but bottom 10 in defensive yards per play. All of the stats point to the over in this game. I have this one set at 50, which may seem a little high, but the advantage of offense over defense in this game is huge. Bottom line is that I expect a shootout and I'm going to take the value here on the over. I am rolling with the over for 4x. Good luck.

Play #2

Browns/Steelers under (40) 1x (Locked) WINNER

This might get to 40.5, but its not going to 41. I was waiting to get a better number than 38 and I am happy to get 40. Because I will be busy at work unable to monitor line movement, I am jumping on the 40 now rather than risk losing that number. I think we see a game dominated by rushing and defense. The Browns are a top 10 defensive team against the pass in epa, dvoa, epa/p, wpa and sr%. However, they struggle mightily against the run where they rank in the bottom five. I expect the steelers to find success with Mendenhall and have no need to resort to their dangerous pass attack in the 2h. Pittsburgh should take command of this game and limit the browns through the air. However, the browns may find some success on the ground if Hills is ready to go against a steelers defense susceptible to the run. While this wont lead to a ton of points, the browns should be able to get some first downs and keep the clock moving. I have this game set at 37 and would have played the under at 39. Once I was able to get 40, I had to jump on it despite the steam on the over. I think this one closes below 39 illustrating that this movement on the over was made more for a better number on the under than a true move on the over. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Texans/Bengals under (39) 2x (Locked) PUSH

Most of the market is at 38.5 or 38 right now, so when one my locals moved to 39, I jumped on it. I actually wanted to get 40, but I'm not sure this gets there and I didn't want to lose out on the 39. You have two teams with rookie quarterbacks squaring off after the 12th game of the season when rookies tend to hit the wall (especially rookie qb's). Those rookies are going to be against two of the best defenses according to the advanced stats. However, each teams' defensive strength is especially successful against each teams' offensive strength. On offense, Houston needs to run the ball with success to take some pressure off of Yates (even if Delhomme plays a bit). However, Cincy's run defense is top 5 in the league in defensive rushing EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. Therefore, I don't see Houston finding a ton of success on the ground against Cincy. Similarly, on offense, Cincy will try to get the ball to AJ Green through the air but will face off against Houston's top 3 defense against the pass in EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. However, even if Cincy tries to run the ball with Benson, you still have to face Houston's top 10 run defense in the same advanced statistical categories. Bottom line is that I think you see both defenses come after these young qb's, stop the run and this one turns into a defensive struggle. Plus, the lack of Andre Johnson in this game, really cements this as a 2x worthy game. With Yates on the road for the first time as a starter, Kubiak will not force anything through the air without Johnson. This keeps the ball on the ground and the clock moving. It also plays into the hands of the Bengals defense who are much better against the run than the pass without Leon Hall at cornerback. Low total unders are always susceptible to turnover or special teams touchdowns, so we just need to cross our fingers and hope those don't happen. Otherwise, I see this one staying under the posted total and have this set at 36.5 giving us 2.5 points of value. I am rolling with the under for 2x. Good luck.

Play #4

Falcons/Panthers over (47) 2x (Locked) WINNER

I know that the Falcons have played to 9 straight unders because I've cashed quite a few of them. However, in this game, I think the offense will be too much. Carolina will be playing at home where they have been especially dangerous. In addition, Carolina will be playing without two of its best defensive line starters who were placed in IR this week. That opens Atlanta up for Turner to have a big game and there is no doubt Turner loves playing against the Panthers who he has rushed for over 750 yards against throughout his career. Carolina's defense is bottom 5 in the league against both rushing and passing and in DVOA, EVA, EVA/P, WPA and SR%. I think we see Atlanta run over Carolina quite easily and explode for some big plays through the play action pass with Matty Ice to Jones and White on the outside. However, this play really comes down to Carolina's offense and I think Cam and the boys play well this Sunday. Atlanta is a bit slow on defense and with Smith burning down the field opening up so much of the Panther playbook, I think the Panthers put at least 3 td's in the endzone. Atlanta's defense is respectable overall, coming in top 15 overall in advanced efficiency stats, but can struggle on the road at times with the pass. I think we see Carolnia get behind early which will force them to turn to the pass. This will open up the running lanes for Newton who should have some successful scrambling plays. In the first game this year, this matchup turned in 48 points. I expect a similar type game on Sunday. I have this one set at 50 and we're getting a field goal of value. I am rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #5

Giants/Cowboys over (50) 1x and over (49) 1x for total of 2x (Locked)

I was hoping to wait on this game and get a number around 49 or 48 as the early money trended under. However, this morning the number steamed all the way up to 50.5 and even 51 at some outlets, so I feel fortunate to get 50. I may add to this one down the road as long as I can get it under the key number of 51. You have two of the best passing offenses and quarterbacks in the league going against two weakened secondaries. Even though both defenses sport defensive lines that can be great at times, both defensive lines have been extremely inconsistent throughout this season. I think we see this become a shootout because both teams' offensive strengths are through the air where they rank top 10 in DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR% and both teams will struggle to stop the receivers they will face. I have this one set at 53 and we this is another game where we are getting 3 points or more of value. I am rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #6 LOSS

Bears ML (+160) 0.50x (Locked)

&

Parlay

Bears ML (+165)/Under (37)(-135) 0.50x to win 1.7x (Locked)

I love the Bears in this spot as a great public fade. I think the Bears win this game outright as Tebow has never faced such an aggressive and athletic defense all year. If the Bears win but the game stays under, this play will be considered a push. This is an official play now. Total risk of 1x for total payout possibility of 2.5x. My thoughts about this game are below from the earlier parlay writeup. Good luck.

I love the payout on this play and fully expect to cash this correlated parlay ticket. The Bears defense should put an end to this Tebow winning streak. Other than in the Jets game, Tebow has not faced such a dominate defense. However, I would argue this Bears defense is better than what NYJ has to offer. If you look at the advanced efficiency stats against both the pass and the run, the Bears come in at the top 5 of the leage in defensive rushing and passing DVOA, EVA, EVA/P, WPA and SR%. On the other side, the Broncos are not anywhere near as highly rated and are middle of the pack. However, during their winning streak, Von Miller has been dominate in leading them to victory. I would actually argue that the Broncos defense has had just as much if not more to do with their winning streak than Tebow. In this game, they will be facing a Bears offense that is without Cutler and Forte. With Hanie at QB they have not found much success because of his turnovers. However, this will be his third start and I expect improvement. I also expect a less aggressive game plan from Martz that is more conducive to Hanie's strengths. I do not think they will stick with those 7 step drops. Instead, look for quick passes, rollouts and other plays that will help accentuate Hanie's strengths. The Broncos are the favorite for one of the few times during Tebow's successful streak and the public is firmly behind them in this game. I think that gives us a great fade opportunity. I am going to monitor the line and I may still have other plays in this game, but for now I am locking in this action parlay. Good luck.

Play #7

Correlated Teaser

Giants (+10.5)/over (43) 1.1x to win 1x (Locked)

I just don't see the Giants losing by more than 10. I have the total set at 53, so once I was able to get 10 points of value on the tease and cover the key number of 43, I had to pull the trigger. We've gotten burned by some bullshit today, so let's cash this 2x over play and 1x correlated teaser for some late night profit. Good luck.

[fecgp40]

Play #7 Correlated Teaser Giants (+10.5)/over (43) 1.1x to win 1x (Locked) I just don't see the Giants losing by more than 10. I have the total set at 53, so once I was able to get 10 points of value on the tease and cover the key number of 43, I had to pull the trigger. We've gotten burned by some bullshit today, so let's cash this 2x over play and 1x correlated teaser for some late night profit. Good luck.

I'm on this LTA. Let's get it!!!!

[815Sox]

Put a small bet on 0ver 49 at the last second, Bears covered for me today but I am pissed off. I didn't expect the Bears to do anything this year so I didn't have my hopes up but they gave the game away.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 14

Play #1

Bills/Chargers over (47) 4x (Locked) PUSH

I may add another unit to this play but I want to see where the line moves. I am getting 48 at my sharper book and 47 at my squarish book, so that's always a good sign. Pinny has this one juiced up on the over at 47.5 and I expect them to make a move to 48 soon. Despite all of the Bills injuries and overall problems, they remain a top 13 offense in all of the advanced efficiency stats for both the pass and the rush, while SD is top 10 in both (top 5 in many). In addition, both offenses have big play capabilities through the air and can score quickly. However, what makes this a play is the weaknesses of the two defenses. Both defenses are in the bottom 6 of the league and I don't see any improvements coming this weekend. Bth defenses have suffered injuries to some of their best players and neither defense has recovered. Just because SD held Jax to 14 points, doesn't mean their defense has turned the corner and is now stout again. Instead, that is more an indictment on the Jax offense than an endorsement of the SD defense. The strength of both offenses comes through the air, but both the Bills' Spiller and Chargers' Matthews are capable of gashing the other team for some big plays and big rushing days. Also interesting is that both teams are top 10 in offensive yards per play, but bottom 10 in defensive yards per play. All of the stats point to the over in this game. I have this one set at 50, which may seem a little high, but the advantage of offense over defense in this game is huge. Bottom line is that I expect a shootout and I'm going to take the value here on the over. I am rolling with the over for 4x. Good luck.

Play #2

Browns/Steelers under (40) 1x (Locked) WINNER

This might get to 40.5, but its not going to 41. I was waiting to get a better number than 38 and I am happy to get 40. Because I will be busy at work unable to monitor line movement, I am jumping on the 40 now rather than risk losing that number. I think we see a game dominated by rushing and defense. The Browns are a top 10 defensive team against the pass in epa, dvoa, epa/p, wpa and sr%. However, they struggle mightily against the run where they rank in the bottom five. I expect the steelers to find success with Mendenhall and have no need to resort to their dangerous pass attack in the 2h. Pittsburgh should take command of this game and limit the browns through the air. However, the browns may find some success on the ground if Hills is ready to go against a steelers defense susceptible to the run. While this wont lead to a ton of points, the browns should be able to get some first downs and keep the clock moving. I have this game set at 37 and would have played the under at 39. Once I was able to get 40, I had to jump on it despite the steam on the over. I think this one closes below 39 illustrating that this movement on the over was made more for a better number on the under than a true move on the over. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Texans/Bengals under (39) 2x (Locked) PUSH

Most of the market is at 38.5 or 38 right now, so when one my locals moved to 39, I jumped on it. I actually wanted to get 40, but I'm not sure this gets there and I didn't want to lose out on the 39. You have two teams with rookie quarterbacks squaring off after the 12th game of the season when rookies tend to hit the wall (especially rookie qb's). Those rookies are going to be against two of the best defenses according to the advanced stats. However, each teams' defensive strength is especially successful against each teams' offensive strength. On offense, Houston needs to run the ball with success to take some pressure off of Yates (even if Delhomme plays a bit). However, Cincy's run defense is top 5 in the league in defensive rushing EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. Therefore, I don't see Houston finding a ton of success on the ground against Cincy. Similarly, on offense, Cincy will try to get the ball to AJ Green through the air but will face off against Houston's top 3 defense against the pass in EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. However, even if Cincy tries to run the ball with Benson, you still have to face Houston's top 10 run defense in the same advanced statistical categories. Bottom line is that I think you see both defenses come after these young qb's, stop the run and this one turns into a defensive struggle. Plus, the lack of Andre Johnson in this game, really cements this as a 2x worthy game. With Yates on the road for the first time as a starter, Kubiak will not force anything through the air without Johnson. This keeps the ball on the ground and the clock moving. It also plays into the hands of the Bengals defense who are much better against the run than the pass without Leon Hall at cornerback. Low total unders are always susceptible to turnover or special teams touchdowns, so we just need to cross our fingers and hope those don't happen. Otherwise, I see this one staying under the posted total and have this set at 36.5 giving us 2.5 points of value. I am rolling with the under for 2x. Good luck.

Play #4

Falcons/Panthers over (47) 2x (Locked) WINNER

I know that the Falcons have played to 9 straight unders because I've cashed quite a few of them. However, in this game, I think the offense will be too much. Carolina will be playing at home where they have been especially dangerous. In addition, Carolina will be playing without two of its best defensive line starters who were placed in IR this week. That opens Atlanta up for Turner to have a big game and there is no doubt Turner loves playing against the Panthers who he has rushed for over 750 yards against throughout his career. Carolina's defense is bottom 5 in the league against both rushing and passing and in DVOA, EVA, EVA/P, WPA and SR%. I think we see Atlanta run over Carolina quite easily and explode for some big plays through the play action pass with Matty Ice to Jones and White on the outside. However, this play really comes down to Carolina's offense and I think Cam and the boys play well this Sunday. Atlanta is a bit slow on defense and with Smith burning down the field opening up so much of the Panther playbook, I think the Panthers put at least 3 td's in the endzone. Atlanta's defense is respectable overall, coming in top 15 overall in advanced efficiency stats, but can struggle on the road at times with the pass. I think we see Carolnia get behind early which will force them to turn to the pass. This will open up the running lanes for Newton who should have some successful scrambling plays. In the first game this year, this matchup turned in 48 points. I expect a similar type game on Sunday. I have this one set at 50 and we're getting a field goal of value. I am rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #5

Giants/Cowboys over (50) 1x and over (49) 1x and over (48) 0.50x for total of 2.5x (Locked)

I was hoping to wait on this game and get a number around 49 or 48 as the early money trended under. However, this morning the number steamed all the way up to 50.5 and even 51 at some outlets, so I feel fortunate to get 50. I may add to this one down the road as long as I can get it under the key number of 51. You have two of the best passing offenses and quarterbacks in the league going against two weakened secondaries. Even though both defenses sport defensive lines that can be great at times, both defensive lines have been extremely inconsistent throughout this season. I think we see this become a shootout because both teams' offensive strengths are through the air where they rank top 10 in DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR% and both teams will struggle to stop the receivers they will face. I have this one set at 53 and we this is another game where we are getting 3 points or more of value. I am rolling with the over for 2.5x. Good luck.

Play #6 LOSS

Bears ML (+160) 0.50x (Locked)

&

Parlay

Bears ML (+165)/Under (37)(-135) 0.50x to win 1.7x (Locked)

I love the Bears in this spot as a great public fade. I think the Bears win this game outright as Tebow has never faced such an aggressive and athletic defense all year. If the Bears win but the game stays under, this play will be considered a push. This is an official play now. Total risk of 1x for total payout possibility of 2.5x. My thoughts about this game are below from the earlier parlay writeup. Good luck.

I love the payout on this play and fully expect to cash this correlated parlay ticket. The Bears defense should put an end to this Tebow winning streak. Other than in the Jets game, Tebow has not faced such a dominate defense. However, I would argue this Bears defense is better than what NYJ has to offer. If you look at the advanced efficiency stats against both the pass and the run, the Bears come in at the top 5 of the leage in defensive rushing and passing DVOA, EVA, EVA/P, WPA and SR%. On the other side, the Broncos are not anywhere near as highly rated and are middle of the pack. However, during their winning streak, Von Miller has been dominate in leading them to victory. I would actually argue that the Broncos defense has had just as much if not more to do with their winning streak than Tebow. In this game, they will be facing a Bears offense that is without Cutler and Forte. With Hanie at QB they have not found much success because of his turnovers. However, this will be his third start and I expect improvement. I also expect a less aggressive game plan from Martz that is more conducive to Hanie's strengths. I do not think they will stick with those 7 step drops. Instead, look for quick passes, rollouts and other plays that will help accentuate Hanie's strengths. The Broncos are the favorite for one of the few times during Tebow's successful streak and the public is firmly behind them in this game. I think that gives us a great fade opportunity. I am going to monitor the line and I may still have other plays in this game, but for now I am locking in this action parlay. Good luck.

Play #7

Correlated Teaser

Giants (+10.5)/over (43) 1.1x to win 1x (Locked)

I just don't see the Giants losing by more than 10. I have the total set at 53, so once I was able to get 10 points of value on the tease and cover the key number of 43, I had to pull the trigger. We've gotten burned by some bullshit today, so let's cash this 2x over play and 1x correlated teaser for some late night profit. Good luck.

Added 0.50x to Play #5 for total of 2.5x. Correct units denoted above.

Book just went down to 48. I had to add another 0.50x to the over. I have it set at 53 so this is 5 points of value and too much to pass up. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 14

Play #1

Bills/Chargers over (47) 4x (Locked) PUSH

I may add another unit to this play but I want to see where the line moves. I am getting 48 at my sharper book and 47 at my squarish book, so that's always a good sign. Pinny has this one juiced up on the over at 47.5 and I expect them to make a move to 48 soon. Despite all of the Bills injuries and overall problems, they remain a top 13 offense in all of the advanced efficiency stats for both the pass and the rush, while SD is top 10 in both (top 5 in many). In addition, both offenses have big play capabilities through the air and can score quickly. However, what makes this a play is the weaknesses of the two defenses. Both defenses are in the bottom 6 of the league and I don't see any improvements coming this weekend. Bth defenses have suffered injuries to some of their best players and neither defense has recovered. Just because SD held Jax to 14 points, doesn't mean their defense has turned the corner and is now stout again. Instead, that is more an indictment on the Jax offense than an endorsement of the SD defense. The strength of both offenses comes through the air, but both the Bills' Spiller and Chargers' Matthews are capable of gashing the other team for some big plays and big rushing days. Also interesting is that both teams are top 10 in offensive yards per play, but bottom 10 in defensive yards per play. All of the stats point to the over in this game. I have this one set at 50, which may seem a little high, but the advantage of offense over defense in this game is huge. Bottom line is that I expect a shootout and I'm going to take the value here on the over. I am rolling with the over for 4x. Good luck.

Play #2

Browns/Steelers under (40) 1x (Locked) WINNER

This might get to 40.5, but its not going to 41. I was waiting to get a better number than 38 and I am happy to get 40. Because I will be busy at work unable to monitor line movement, I am jumping on the 40 now rather than risk losing that number. I think we see a game dominated by rushing and defense. The Browns are a top 10 defensive team against the pass in epa, dvoa, epa/p, wpa and sr%. However, they struggle mightily against the run where they rank in the bottom five. I expect the steelers to find success with Mendenhall and have no need to resort to their dangerous pass attack in the 2h. Pittsburgh should take command of this game and limit the browns through the air. However, the browns may find some success on the ground if Hills is ready to go against a steelers defense susceptible to the run. While this wont lead to a ton of points, the browns should be able to get some first downs and keep the clock moving. I have this game set at 37 and would have played the under at 39. Once I was able to get 40, I had to jump on it despite the steam on the over. I think this one closes below 39 illustrating that this movement on the over was made more for a better number on the under than a true move on the over. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Texans/Bengals under (39) 2x (Locked) PUSH

Most of the market is at 38.5 or 38 right now, so when one my locals moved to 39, I jumped on it. I actually wanted to get 40, but I'm not sure this gets there and I didn't want to lose out on the 39. You have two teams with rookie quarterbacks squaring off after the 12th game of the season when rookies tend to hit the wall (especially rookie qb's). Those rookies are going to be against two of the best defenses according to the advanced stats. However, each teams' defensive strength is especially successful against each teams' offensive strength. On offense, Houston needs to run the ball with success to take some pressure off of Yates (even if Delhomme plays a bit). However, Cincy's run defense is top 5 in the league in defensive rushing EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. Therefore, I don't see Houston finding a ton of success on the ground against Cincy. Similarly, on offense, Cincy will try to get the ball to AJ Green through the air but will face off against Houston's top 3 defense against the pass in EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. However, even if Cincy tries to run the ball with Benson, you still have to face Houston's top 10 run defense in the same advanced statistical categories. Bottom line is that I think you see both defenses come after these young qb's, stop the run and this one turns into a defensive struggle. Plus, the lack of Andre Johnson in this game, really cements this as a 2x worthy game. With Yates on the road for the first time as a starter, Kubiak will not force anything through the air without Johnson. This keeps the ball on the ground and the clock moving. It also plays into the hands of the Bengals defense who are much better against the run than the pass without Leon Hall at cornerback. Low total unders are always susceptible to turnover or special teams touchdowns, so we just need to cross our fingers and hope those don't happen. Otherwise, I see this one staying under the posted total and have this set at 36.5 giving us 2.5 points of value. I am rolling with the under for 2x. Good luck.

Play #4

Falcons/Panthers over (47) 2x (Locked) WINNER

I know that the Falcons have played to 9 straight unders because I've cashed quite a few of them. However, in this game, I think the offense will be too much. Carolina will be playing at home where they have been especially dangerous. In addition, Carolina will be playing without two of its best defensive line starters who were placed in IR this week. That opens Atlanta up for Turner to have a big game and there is no doubt Turner loves playing against the Panthers who he has rushed for over 750 yards against throughout his career. Carolina's defense is bottom 5 in the league against both rushing and passing and in DVOA, EVA, EVA/P, WPA and SR%. I think we see Atlanta run over Carolina quite easily and explode for some big plays through the play action pass with Matty Ice to Jones and White on the outside. However, this play really comes down to Carolina's offense and I think Cam and the boys play well this Sunday. Atlanta is a bit slow on defense and with Smith burning down the field opening up so much of the Panther playbook, I think the Panthers put at least 3 td's in the endzone. Atlanta's defense is respectable overall, coming in top 15 overall in advanced efficiency stats, but can struggle on the road at times with the pass. I think we see Carolnia get behind early which will force them to turn to the pass. This will open up the running lanes for Newton who should have some successful scrambling plays. In the first game this year, this matchup turned in 48 points. I expect a similar type game on Sunday. I have this one set at 50 and we're getting a field goal of value. I am rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #5

Giants/Cowboys over (50) 1x and over (49) 1x and over (48) 0.50x for total of 2.5x (Locked)

I was hoping to wait on this game and get a number around 49 or 48 as the early money trended under. However, this morning the number steamed all the way up to 50.5 and even 51 at some outlets, so I feel fortunate to get 50. I may add to this one down the road as long as I can get it under the key number of 51. You have two of the best passing offenses and quarterbacks in the league going against two weakened secondaries. Even though both defenses sport defensive lines that can be great at times, both defensive lines have been extremely inconsistent throughout this season. I think we see this become a shootout because both teams' offensive strengths are through the air where they rank top 10 in DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR% and both teams will struggle to stop the receivers they will face. I have this one set at 53 and we this is another game where we are getting 3 points or more of value. I am rolling with the over for 2.5x. Good luck.

Play #6 LOSS

Bears ML (+160) 0.50x (Locked)

&

Parlay

Bears ML (+165)/Under (37)(-135) 0.50x to win 1.7x (Locked)

I love the Bears in this spot as a great public fade. I think the Bears win this game outright as Tebow has never faced such an aggressive and athletic defense all year. If the Bears win but the game stays under, this play will be considered a push. This is an official play now. Total risk of 1x for total payout possibility of 2.5x. My thoughts about this game are below from the earlier parlay writeup. Good luck.

I love the payout on this play and fully expect to cash this correlated parlay ticket. The Bears defense should put an end to this Tebow winning streak. Other than in the Jets game, Tebow has not faced such a dominate defense. However, I would argue this Bears defense is better than what NYJ has to offer. If you look at the advanced efficiency stats against both the pass and the run, the Bears come in at the top 5 of the leage in defensive rushing and passing DVOA, EVA, EVA/P, WPA and SR%. On the other side, the Broncos are not anywhere near as highly rated and are middle of the pack. However, during their winning streak, Von Miller has been dominate in leading them to victory. I would actually argue that the Broncos defense has had just as much if not more to do with their winning streak than Tebow. In this game, they will be facing a Bears offense that is without Cutler and Forte. With Hanie at QB they have not found much success because of his turnovers. However, this will be his third start and I expect improvement. I also expect a less aggressive game plan from Martz that is more conducive to Hanie's strengths. I do not think they will stick with those 7 step drops. Instead, look for quick passes, rollouts and other plays that will help accentuate Hanie's strengths. The Broncos are the favorite for one of the few times during Tebow's successful streak and the public is firmly behind them in this game. I think that gives us a great fade opportunity. I am going to monitor the line and I may still have other plays in this game, but for now I am locking in this action parlay. Good luck.

Play #7

Correlated Teaser

Giants (+10.5)/over (43) 1.1x to win 1x (Locked)

I just don't see the Giants losing by more than 10. I have the total set at 53, so once I was able to get 10 points of value on the tease and cover the key number of 43, I had to pull the trigger. We've gotten burned by some bullshit today, so let's cash this 2x over play and 1x correlated teaser for some late night profit. Good luck.

Final card for Sunday. Need 51 points in the game with a Giants win or 9 point loss. I really need these 3.5x of profit tonight.

[Love The Action]

I'm mentally exhausted after today. I had the whole house to myself for once to watch the games as the wife and baby were with the in-laws, was expecting a huge day, and missed it by a fuking hair. Two pushes, a bullshit overtime loss and here we are. Praying for Romo and Manning to light it up. I didn't even get any NCAAF bowl games capped or NBA research done like I had planned.

[fecgp40]

A safety!! Beautifull. I hope that's the 2 pts that put us over the top.

[Love The Action]

WTF are the Giants doing. 1st and goal from the 2 fuking yard line and throw two consecutive fades and then a fuking draw?!!?

You can't make this shit up. Horrible fuking play calling. I have said how much I hate the NFL yet....

[SlickRick1382]

WTF are the Giants doing. 1st and goal from the 2 fuking yard line and throw two consecutive fades and then a fuking draw?!!? You can't make this shit up. Horrible fuking play calling. I have said how much I hate the NFL yet....

I was just about to post this. Safety and Giants with the ball with first and goal from the 2. How much of a better start can we ask for. Possible get 12-16 points in the 1st Quarter alone if all went right with the Cowboys return drive. Instead they ******* settle for a FG. Why wouldn't you just ******* pound Jacobs up the middle THREE ******* TIMES.

How the **** do fail to convert from the 2 yard line, ESPECIALLY when you have a steamroller of a RB in Jacobs....

Absolutely disgusting ....

[fecgp40]

WTF are the Giants doing. 1st and goal from the 2 fuking yard line and throw two consecutive fades and then a fuking draw?!!? You can't make this shit up. Horrible fuking play calling. I have said how much I hate the NFL yet....

Wow... that was really awful play calling. The first fade didn't work, so run another one? Then a draw that gets stuffed???? Only today.

[fecgp40]

And now an explosive player in murray is hurt. sorry guys. i guess i cursed you by jumping on the bandwagon.

[Love The Action]

I was just about to post this. Safety and Giants with the ball with first and goal from the 2. How much of a better start can we ask for. Possible get 12-16 points in the 1st Quarter alone if all went right with the Cowboys return drive. Instead they ******* settle for a FG. Why wouldn't you just ******* pound Jacobs up the middle THREE ******* TIMES.

How the **** do fail to convert from the 2 yard line, ESPECIALLY when you have a steamroller of a RB in Jacobs....

Absolutely disgusting ....

Bitchfest Sunday!!!!!

[Love The Action]

Wow... that was really awful play calling. The first fade didn't work, so run another one? Then a draw that gets stuffed???? Only today.

They get paid 6 figures, and in some cases 7 figures, for that kind of play calling

[GChild]

Now he's going to run 3 straight times

[fecgp40]

More great play calling by the giants... thank god we may get bailed out by a penalty

[fecgp40]

thanks ref

[Overbettor]

Ill take that penalty.....hopefully all the way to the bank.

[SlickRick1382]

They finally had the idea to run Jacobs up the middle !!!!

Ding Ding Ding

[fecgp40]

They finally had the idea to run Jacobs up the middle !!!! Ding Ding Ding

Geniuses!!!! It's a miracle!!!

[fecgp40]

Damn Felix Jones looks freakin great

[fecgp40]

Rollin!!! Let's go boys!!! Over city!!!

[Love The Action]

Why can't the Giants score a touchdown? 2 makeable td chances and instead all they get is 2 field goals.

[fecgp40]

Why can't the Giants score a touchdown? 2 makeable td chances and instead all they get is 2 field goals.

I agree. I really hope that doesn't come back to haunt us.

[jas19illini]

I'm mentally exhausted after today. I had the whole house to myself for once to watch the games as the wife and baby were with the in-laws, was expecting a huge day, and missed it by a fuking hair. Two pushes, a bullshit overtime loss and here we are. Praying for Romo and Manning to light it up. I didn't even get any NCAAF bowl games capped or NBA research done like I had planned.

I was looking forward to those bowl game picks too. Lol. No worries though. Today has been a nerve-racker.

[Love The Action]

I hate Kevin Gilbride as the Giants offensive coordinator. He sucks. He has cost at least 2 touchdowns tonight.

[Love The Action]

OMG fuking Manning

NO....all we needed was a field goal to cash the over and pretty much ensure the teaser. FUK!!!

[fecgp40]

OMG fuking Manning NO....all we needed was a field goal to cash the over and pretty much ensure the teaser. FUK!!!

Worst possible outcome there

[GChild]

Boooooooom

[Love The Action]

Man do we deserve a Giants td and cover of the +10....come on just one time here.

[fecgp40]

enough with the fades!!! Good lord!!

[Love The Action]

Nice