LTA's NFL PLays

[SUPREME]

Good luck! If you are confident, that is all that matters. Personally, I'm not a fan of 10 pt teasers because of the odds.

Yesterday was so frustrating. Could've made over +13.5x in profit if not for some tough breaks. But I've moved on. Cashing the night game helped and I ended up with +5.5x in profit on the day, which put me over $1K in profit for the season. I remain committed to making a big run for these last 3 weeks and playoffs.

figures i was thinking about a seattle/under teaser and instead I decided to do a parlay. unbelievable.

...have faith in the Teaser this destructive NFL season fellas. The outcomes have been overwhelmingly unorthodox, and consequentially, so is my style of betting. BOL for the remainder of the week.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 14 Recap

4 - 2 - 2 = +4.4x

NFL 2011-2012 Season

74 - 67 = +3.5x

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 15

Play #1

Correlated Teaser

Patriots PK/over (39.5) 1.1x to win 1x (Locked)

Here's a game that I actually expect Tebow to play well and am counting on him to do so. I may also play the over in this game as a stand-alone play. Although the Broncos defense is vastly improved since they played GB, this is the same type of offense they will be facing. Let's face it, Brady is surgical out there and his stats tell the story. Offensively, NE is as good as it gets and along with GB and NO really represents the top three offenses according to the advanced stats. I think NE will have no problem hitting up the Denver defense for at least 4 touchdowns. However, I really think Tebow has a good game against this poor NE defense. NE ranks in the bottom 10 in the important advanced categories and is susceptible to both the run and pass. Tebow should be able get 21 points at home against this poor defense. NE is not the Bears and I expect the power rushing of McGahee and the read option of Tebow to be successful on Sunday against the Pats. In the end, I have the Pats set at -7 favorites so getting them at a pk is perfect. I just don't see Belicheck and Brady losing to this Denver team. I have the total set at 48.5 and it's currently at 45.5. I am going to scope out the line movement in hopes of getting 45, at which time I will probably lock in a play on the over in this game as well. For now, I am teasing the Pats down to a pk and the over to 39.5 for 1x. Good luck.

[No coincidences]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 15

Play #1

Correlated Teaser

Patriots PK/over (39.5) 1.1x to win 1x (Locked)

Here's a game that I actually expect Tebow to play well and am counting on him to do so. I may also play the over in this game as a stand-alone play. Although the Broncos defense is vastly improved since they played GB, this is the same type of offense they will be facing. Let's face it, Brady is surgical out there and his stats tell the story. Offensively, NE is as good as it gets and along with GB and NO really represents the top three offenses according to the advanced stats. I think NE will have no problem hitting up the Denver defense for at least 4 touchdowns. However, I really think Tebow has a good game against this poor NE defense. NE ranks in the bottom 10 in the important advanced categories and is susceptible to both the run and pass. Tebow should be able get 21 points at home against this poor defense. NE is not the Bears and I expect the power rushing of McGahee and the read option of Tebow to be successful on Sunday against the Pats. In the end, I have the Pats set at -7 favorites so getting them at a pk is perfect. I just don't see Belicheck and Brady losing to this Denver team. I have the total set at 48.5 and it's currently at 45.5. I am going to scope out the line movement in hopes of getting 45, at which time I will probably lock in a play on the over in this game as well. For now, I am teasing the Pats down to a pk and the over to 39.5 for 1x. Good luck.

Looks like a very solid tease.

[Redscot]

One thing I'll say for shitty Monday night games is it gives you the opportunity to watch teams you wouldn't bother with normally. Last night I came away really impressed with Seattle's secondary. Great height at the corner's and 2 terrific young safeties. That's the kind of secondary that allows a D-Coordinator a lot of flexibility. If they can can add another play maker in their front 7 they could be a D to be reckoned with.

[Trivial]

I think you just wasted a 0.50x

No, seriously, good luck bud. The NFL is crazy but I guess that's what we love about it.

LOL. Indeed. I don't know how I will react if it actually cashes.

[Love The Action]

One thing I'll say for shitty Monday night games is it gives you the opportunity to watch teams you wouldn't bother with normally. Last night I came away really impressed with Seattle's secondary. Great height at the corner's and 2 terrific young safeties. That's the kind of secondary that allows a D-Coordinator a lot of flexibility. If they can can add another play maker in their front 7 they could be a D to be reckoned with.

Nice win with your teaser

[Redscot]

Nice win with your teaser

Thanks bud, blocked punt f'd you over, tough to account for that in capping. Looks like my book finally got his bowl numbers in, gonna go have a look at your plays and see if I have any value left.

[Donnie Brasco]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 15

Play #1

Correlated Teaser

Patriots PK/over (39.5) 1.1x to win 1x (Locked)

Here's a game that I actually expect Tebow to play well and am counting on him to do so. I may also play the over in this game as a stand-alone play. Although the Broncos defense is vastly improved since they played GB, this is the same type of offense they will be facing. Let's face it, Brady is surgical out there and his stats tell the story. Offensively, NE is as good as it gets and along with GB and NO really represents the top three offenses according to the advanced stats. I think NE will have no problem hitting up the Denver defense for at least 4 touchdowns. However, I really think Tebow has a good game against this poor NE defense. NE ranks in the bottom 10 in the important advanced categories and is susceptible to both the run and pass. Tebow should be able get 21 points at home against this poor defense. NE is not the Bears and I expect the power rushing of McGahee and the read option of Tebow to be successful on Sunday against the Pats. In the end, I have the Pats set at -7 favorites so getting them at a pk is perfect. I just don't see Belicheck and Brady losing to this Denver team. I have the total set at 48.5 and it's currently at 45.5. I am going to scope out the line movement in hopes of getting 45, at which time I will probably lock in a play on the over in this game as well. For now, I am teasing the Pats down to a pk and the over to 39.5 for 1x. Good luck.

LTA finally some love for touchdown jesus! This is my week to fade him,
New england -6

[blaze4g]

im liking atl and jags under 42.5, two strong defenses dont see much scoring. what do you think LTA?

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 15

Play #1

Correlated Teaser

Patriots PK/over (39.5) 1.1x to win 1x (Locked)

Here's a game that I actually expect Tebow to play well and am counting on him to do so. I may also play the over in this game as a stand-alone play. Although the Broncos defense is vastly improved since they played GB, this is the same type of offense they will be facing. Let's face it, Brady is surgical out there and his stats tell the story. Offensively, NE is as good as it gets and along with GB and NO really represents the top three offenses according to the advanced stats. I think NE will have no problem hitting up the Denver defense for at least 4 touchdowns. However, I really think Tebow has a good game against this poor NE defense. NE ranks in the bottom 10 in the important advanced categories and is susceptible to both the run and pass. Tebow should be able get 21 points at home against this poor defense. NE is not the Bears and I expect the power rushing of McGahee and the read option of Tebow to be successful on Sunday against the Pats. In the end, I have the Pats set at -7 favorites so getting them at a pk is perfect. I just don't see Belicheck and Brady losing to this Denver team. I have the total set at 48.5 and it's currently at 45.5. I am going to scope out the line movement in hopes of getting 45, at which time I will probably lock in a play on the over in this game as well. For now, I am teasing the Pats down to a pk and the over to 39.5 for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Cowboys/Buccaneers over (46) 1x (Locked)

Busy day at work, so just getting around to posting this one now. I expect this one to go up 47 by Wednesday and getting this one under 47 is key. The main reason I like the over here is the poor defensive play exhibited by both teams. At least the Cowboys have Ware rushing off the end and causing some havoc. However, the Bucs have been ravaged by injuries to its entire defense, including across the entire starting defensive line. The Bucs defense is ranked in the bottom 5 in both rushing and passing advanced statistical categories, while Dallas has dipped from a top 15 defense to a bottom 15 defense in the same stats. On offense, the Cowboys are clicking and have Austin back to round a very dangerous receiving corps. TB is especially bad against the pass and I expect a big game out of Romo. On the other side, this is a prime time game and TB will play hard. I expect them to find some success against Dallas and score for 3 td's in a surprising effort at home. I still view Freeman as one of the top young quarterbacks in the league, despite taking a step back this year and dealing with some injuries. He will be tested with that rush from Ware, but they do have good protection from Penn at left tackle. I expect Dallas to win this game, but they are definitely a hard team to trust. That is why I think we see a surprise effort from TB in keeping this an interesting and being an active dog in helping this one cash on the over. I will be contemplating a possible tease with Dallas and the over as the week evolves. For now, I wanted to get this one locked in under the key number of 47 which is one of the most important key totals number. I have Dallas set at -7 with a total of 49 and am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Just locked in my first NBA play of the year

[blaze4g]

whats the nba play?

[NeverBackDown]

[MrXYZ]

Love the Cowboys over LTA, it's my favourite total on the board. I got in at 46.5 for 1x. Good luck this week with all your plays.

[Love The Action]

Love the Cowboys over LTA, it's my favourite total on the board. I got in at 46.5 for 1x. Good luck this week with all your plays.

[Vulcan300]

hey LTA what if freeman doesn't start? are you still confident then that the over hits?

[Love The Action]

hey LTA what if freeman doesn't start? are you still confident then that the over hits?

Freeman is starting. Even if he's not, johnson is a solid backup with the athletic ability to make plays outside the pocket. I could also forsee a big day for Dallas more than the 28 points projected by my model. Freeman will start and this is not a concern. GL

[Vulcan300]

sounds good to me, ill take the teaser for a unit.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 15

Play #1

Correlated Teaser

Patriots PK/over (39.5) 1.1x to win 1x (Locked)

Here's a game that I actually expect Tebow to play well and am counting on him to do so. I may also play the over in this game as a stand-alone play. Although the Broncos defense is vastly improved since they played GB, this is the same type of offense they will be facing. Let's face it, Brady is surgical out there and his stats tell the story. Offensively, NE is as good as it gets and along with GB and NO really represents the top three offenses according to the advanced stats. I think NE will have no problem hitting up the Denver defense for at least 4 touchdowns. However, I really think Tebow has a good game against this poor NE defense. NE ranks in the bottom 10 in the important advanced categories and is susceptible to both the run and pass. Tebow should be able get 21 points at home against this poor defense. NE is not the Bears and I expect the power rushing of McGahee and the read option of Tebow to be successful on Sunday against the Pats. In the end, I have the Pats set at -7 favorites so getting them at a pk is perfect. I just don't see Belicheck and Brady losing to this Denver team. I have the total set at 48.5 and it's currently at 45.5. I am going to scope out the line movement in hopes of getting 45, at which time I will probably lock in a play on the over in this game as well. For now, I am teasing the Pats down to a pk and the over to 39.5 for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Cowboys/Buccaneers over (46) 1x (Locked)

Busy day at work, so just getting around to posting this one now. I expect this one to go up 47 by Wednesday and getting this one under 47 is key. The main reason I like the over here is the poor defensive play exhibited by both teams. At least the Cowboys have Ware rushing off the end and causing some havoc. However, the Bucs have been ravaged by injuries to its entire defense, including across the entire starting defensive line. The Bucs defense is ranked in the bottom 5 in both rushing and passing advanced statistical categories, while Dallas has dipped from a top 15 defense to a bottom 15 defense in the same stats. On offense, the Cowboys are clicking and have Austin back to round a very dangerous receiving corps. TB is especially bad against the pass and I expect a big game out of Romo. On the other side, this is a prime time game and TB will play hard. I expect them to find some success against Dallas and score for 3 td's in a surprising effort at home. I still view Freeman as one of the top young quarterbacks in the league, despite taking a step back this year and dealing with some injuries. He will be tested with that rush from Ware, but they do have good protection from Penn at left tackle. I expect Dallas to win this game, but they are definitely a hard team to trust. That is why I think we see a surprise effort from TB in keeping this an interesting and being an active dog in helping this one cash on the over. I will be contemplating a possible tease with Dallas and the over as the week evolves. For now, I wanted to get this one locked in under the key number of 47 which is one of the most important key totals number. I have Dallas set at -7 with a total of 49 and am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Patriots/Broncos over (45)(-120) 1x (Locked)

No time for a full writeup, but I did want to mention that getting this game at 45 is vitally important. I do not forsee any further movement favoring the under and therefore do not expect 45(-110) to become available. Consequently, this is rare circumstance where buying the hook on a total is a wise investment. I will explain futher in my final writeup. For now, I am rolling with the over for 1x, with a possible addition to that stake down the line. Good luck.

[odog11]

I like the the teaser and the over play. Already have Pats at -6 and the Dall/Tampa over under teased down to 39 with GB teased down to 6.5. May make another play on the over or put it into another teaser, just don't see that one being under 40 pts.

[shocktopme]

.

Interesting pick on NE/Den over 45......Denvers low scoring offense and good defense makes me think close at this one...I'll wait to hear your angle on this one....It is at 45.5 now though.....

[Krazymojo]

Just locked in my first NBA play of the year

Please share

[odog11]

Interesting pick on NE/Den over 45......Denvers low scoring offense and good defense makes me think close at this one...I'll wait to hear your angle on this one....It is at 45.5 now though.....

You really need to factor in Patriots "can't stop them, can only hope to contain them" offense and Patriots probably couldn't contain a lingerei football team defense in more to your analysis.

[odog11]

Sad thing is, her passing form is almost as good as Tebow.

[SUPREME]

Sad thing is, her passing form is almost as good as Tebow.

Looks identical

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 15

Play #1

Correlated Teaser

Patriots PK/over (39.5) 1.1x to win 1x (Locked)

Here's a game that I actually expect Tebow to play well and am counting on him to do so. I may also play the over in this game as a stand-alone play. Although the Broncos defense is vastly improved since they played GB, this is the same type of offense they will be facing. Let's face it, Brady is surgical out there and his stats tell the story. Offensively, NE is as good as it gets and along with GB and NO really represents the top three offenses according to the advanced stats. I think NE will have no problem hitting up the Denver defense for at least 4 touchdowns. However, I really think Tebow has a good game against this poor NE defense. NE ranks in the bottom 10 in the important advanced categories and is susceptible to both the run and pass. Tebow should be able get 21 points at home against this poor defense. NE is not the Bears and I expect the power rushing of McGahee and the read option of Tebow to be successful on Sunday against the Pats. In the end, I have the Pats set at -7 favorites so getting them at a pk is perfect. I just don't see Belicheck and Brady losing to this Denver team. I have the total set at 48.5 and it's currently at 45.5. I am going to scope out the line movement in hopes of getting 45, at which time I will probably lock in a play on the over in this game as well. For now, I am teasing the Pats down to a pk and the over to 39.5 for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Cowboys/Buccaneers over (46) 1x (Locked)

Busy day at work, so just getting around to posting this one now. I expect this one to go up 47 by Wednesday and getting this one under 47 is key. The main reason I like the over here is the poor defensive play exhibited by both teams. At least the Cowboys have Ware rushing off the end and causing some havoc. However, the Bucs have been ravaged by injuries to its entire defense, including across the entire starting defensive line. The Bucs defense is ranked in the bottom 5 in both rushing and passing advanced statistical categories, while Dallas has dipped from a top 15 defense to a bottom 15 defense in the same stats. On offense, the Cowboys are clicking and have Austin back to round a very dangerous receiving corps. TB is especially bad against the pass and I expect a big game out of Romo. On the other side, this is a prime time game and TB will play hard. I expect them to find some success against Dallas and score for 3 td's in a surprising effort at home. I still view Freeman as one of the top young quarterbacks in the league, despite taking a step back this year and dealing with some injuries. He will be tested with that rush from Ware, but they do have good protection from Penn at left tackle. I expect Dallas to win this game, but they are definitely a hard team to trust. That is why I think we see a surprise effort from TB in keeping this an interesting and being an active dog in helping this one cash on the over. I will be contemplating a possible tease with Dallas and the over as the week evolves. For now, I wanted to get this one locked in under the key number of 47 which is one of the most important key totals number. I have Dallas set at -7 with a total of 49 and am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Patriots/Broncos over (45)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Getting this play at 45 is vitally important. I do not forsee any further movement favoring the under and therefore do not expect 45(-110) to become available. Consequently, this is rare circumstance where buying the hook on a total is a wise investment. When the NFL gets to the final weeks of the season, the lines tighten up and are as sharp as ever. The NFL is truly about key numbers and making sure you know the percentages of final score possibilities. In this case, the total opened up at 46.5, was bet down to 45.5 by Wednesday morning when I made my wager and was bet right back up tot 46 and even 46.5 depending on your outlet. I really feel that someone was pushing that number down in order to buy it right back up. Getting this game at 45 is a complete steal and we are now covering a number that is the 12th most common final score. In addition, getting a NE game at 45 or less, it not even fair since they can hit that one their own on a good day. Not only do I have it set at 48.5, but with the Broncos facing the first real test on defense in quite awhile, I think we could see an explosion of points on Sunday. Many of my thoughts on this play can be found in the writeup for my teaser in this game making up Play #1 of this week. Don't be surprised if we see NE breakout for a big offensive game but Tebow to answer a few of those scores. I expect a competitive game with NE ending up on top. However, this one could very well eclipse 55. I am rolling with the value and taking the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Jets/Eagles over (43)(-120) 2x (Locked)

Here's another one where covering the key number of 43 is vitally important. 43 represents the 5th most common final score in the NFL and with a defense as good as the Jets, it's important to cover this important number. Therefore, I am going to eat the juice in this case and buy the hook. I am very confident that we see this one close at or around 45 by game time and that 43 will never become available on a 10 cent line. I don't recommend buying the hook on totals in general, but in the NFL I would argue this can be profitable if you know how to manipulate key numbers. In this game, you have a great defense in the Jets going against Vick without it's defensive quarterback in Leanord at safety. That really hurts the cohesiveness of the Jets defense going into Philly as they are finally starting to get healthy on offense. I expect Maclin to be hobbled a bit, but Jackson, Celek and McCoy are healthy and ready to help Vick salvage what they can of the season. Philly is a top 5 team rushing the ball in DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. Even though the Jets are a top 5 defense against the run, the Jets have had problems all year giving up points against decent offenses. In addition, Rex Ryan defenses have struggled just a bit against mobile quarterbacks such as Vick. I have this one set at 47 and we're buying the hook at cover the key number of 43. I really like this play and expect a competitive game with Philly playing at home. We are getting a great number here and I am rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 15

Play #1

Correlated Teaser

Patriots PK/over (39.5) 1.1x to win 1x (Locked)

Here's a game that I actually expect Tebow to play well and am counting on him to do so. I may also play the over in this game as a stand-alone play. Although the Broncos defense is vastly improved since they played GB, this is the same type of offense they will be facing. Let's face it, Brady is surgical out there and his stats tell the story. Offensively, NE is as good as it gets and along with GB and NO really represents the top three offenses according to the advanced stats. I think NE will have no problem hitting up the Denver defense for at least 4 touchdowns. However, I really think Tebow has a good game against this poor NE defense. NE ranks in the bottom 10 in the important advanced categories and is susceptible to both the run and pass. Tebow should be able get 21 points at home against this poor defense. NE is not the Bears and I expect the power rushing of McGahee and the read option of Tebow to be successful on Sunday against the Pats. In the end, I have the Pats set at -7 favorites so getting them at a pk is perfect. I just don't see Belicheck and Brady losing to this Denver team. I have the total set at 48.5 and it's currently at 45.5. I am going to scope out the line movement in hopes of getting 45, at which time I will probably lock in a play on the over in this game as well. For now, I am teasing the Pats down to a pk and the over to 39.5 for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Cowboys/Buccaneers over (46) 1x (Locked)

Busy day at work, so just getting around to posting this one now. I expect this one to go up 47 by Wednesday and getting this one under 47 is key. The main reason I like the over here is the poor defensive play exhibited by both teams. At least the Cowboys have Ware rushing off the end and causing some havoc. However, the Bucs have been ravaged by injuries to its entire defense, including across the entire starting defensive line. The Bucs defense is ranked in the bottom 5 in both rushing and passing advanced statistical categories, while Dallas has dipped from a top 15 defense to a bottom 15 defense in the same stats. On offense, the Cowboys are clicking and have Austin back to round a very dangerous receiving corps. TB is especially bad against the pass and I expect a big game out of Romo. On the other side, this is a prime time game and TB will play hard. I expect them to find some success against Dallas and score for 3 td's in a surprising effort at home. I still view Freeman as one of the top young quarterbacks in the league, despite taking a step back this year and dealing with some injuries. He will be tested with that rush from Ware, but they do have good protection from Penn at left tackle. I expect Dallas to win this game, but they are definitely a hard team to trust. That is why I think we see a surprise effort from TB in keeping this an interesting and being an active dog in helping this one cash on the over. I will be contemplating a possible tease with Dallas and the over as the week evolves. For now, I wanted to get this one locked in under the key number of 47 which is one of the most important key totals number. I have Dallas set at -7 with a total of 49 and am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Patriots/Broncos over (45)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Getting this play at 45 is vitally important. I do not forsee any further movement favoring the under and therefore do not expect 45(-110) to become available. Consequently, this is rare circumstance where buying the hook on a total is a wise investment. When the NFL gets to the final weeks of the season, the lines tighten up and are as sharp as ever. The NFL is truly about key numbers and making sure you know the percentages of final score possibilities. In this case, the total opened up at 46.5, was bet down to 45.5 by Wednesday morning when I made my wager and was bet right back up tot 46 and even 46.5 depending on your outlet. I really feel that someone was pushing that number down in order to buy it right back up. Getting this game at 45 is a complete steal and we are now covering a number that is the 12th most common final score. In addition, getting a NE game at 45 or less, it not even fair since they can hit that one their own on a good day. Not only do I have it set at 48.5, but with the Broncos facing the first real test on defense in quite awhile, I think we could see an explosion of points on Sunday. Many of my thoughts on this play can be found in the writeup for my teaser in this game making up Play #1 of this week. Don't be surprised if we see NE breakout for a big offensive game but Tebow to answer a few of those scores. I expect a competitive game with NE ending up on top. However, this one could very well eclipse 55. I am rolling with the value and taking the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Jets/Eagles over (43)(-120) 2x (Locked)

Here's another one where covering the key number of 43 is vitally important. 43 represents the 5th most common final score in the NFL and with a defense as good as the Jets, it's important to cover this important number. Therefore, I am going to eat the juice in this case and buy the hook. I am very confident that we see this one close at or around 45 by game time and that 43 will never become available on a 10 cent line. I don't recommend buying the hook on totals in general, but in the NFL I would argue this can be profitable if you know how to manipulate key numbers. In this game, you have a great defense in the Jets going against Vick without it's defensive quarterback in Leanord at safety. That really hurts the cohesiveness of the Jets defense going into Philly as they are finally starting to get healthy on offense. I expect Maclin to be hobbled a bit, but Jackson, Celek and McCoy are healthy and ready to help Vick salvage what they can of the season. Philly is a top 5 team rushing the ball in DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. Even though the Jets are a top 5 defense against the run, the Jets have had problems all year giving up points against decent offenses. In addition, Rex Ryan defenses have struggled just a bit against mobile quarterbacks such as Vick. I have this one set at 47 and we're buying the hook at cover the key number of 43. I really like this play and expect a competitive game with Philly playing at home. We are getting a great number here and I am rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #5

Falcons (-11.5) 1x (Locked)

This is a bad number as I should have gotten 11 earlier in the week, but I see no reason to buy the hook down to 11 as that is not a key number I am worried about in this game. Bottom line is that the Jaguars are mash unit that scored 3 touchdowns last week on defense and special teams to beat the Bucs. I don't expect any such success against the Falcons. To make matters worse, the Jags are playing their 3rd game in 11 days thanks to a scheduling quirk and this game is in Atlanta where we all know the Falcons have dominated under Matty Ice. This is a huge spot for the Falcons to come out and stomp on someone in front of a national audience who has pretty much written them off this year after a slow start. The Falcons have to win this game to stay in the playoff race so I just don't see how we can have a let down on Thursday. The stats show a huge advantage on offense in favor of the Falcons and despite some favorable stats on defense for the Jags, those high ratings were earned by a defense that is now mostly on IR. I just don't see how anyone can back the Jags in this horrible situational spot. I have Falcons set at -14 at home in this game and I wish I would have gotten -11. However, I would play this game at -12 and maybe even a little higher. This is the first double digit favorite I have played all year and I generally look to avoid such plays. However, in this case, the situational spot is so bad for the Jags and so good for the Falcons, that I have to pull the trigger. I am rolling with the Falcons for 1x. Good luck.

[Donnie Brasco]

Looked for ur nba pick in ur thread, dont see it.

[ultrasouth]

LTA Falcons -10.5 NSW TAB

[Krazymojo]

damn i go to get that falcons game at 6am and its up to 14 sry gotta stay away from that now

[Love The Action]

LTA Falcons -10.5 NSW TAB

What are the odds? More than -110?than

[Love The Action]

damn i go to get that falcons game at 6am and its up to 14 sry gotta stay away from that now

Where? That number sucks...you gotta add oprions buddy. Most of the offshore market is at -12 or -12.5. At this point, -14 is ludicrous. However, I would not be surprised if that is the closing number. I hate dd faves, but this is as solid a dd fave as you will see because of the rough spot the jags are in.

[Love The Action]

Looked for ur nba pick in ur thread, dont see it.

Shit...you're right. Forgot to post it. I'll post it up today. Thanks

[Redscot]

Really liking the Falcons play here bro. Just hypothetically speaking....would you lean more over 36 1/2 or under 48 1/2.........not that I am thinking of adding a teaser to the play or anything ....I swear . I think the Falcons are good for 27 or so points, so the question to me becomes can the Jag's get 10? hmmmm. What you think?