LTA's NFL PLays

[Redscot]

i like the under. i have this game as Stillers, 26-7, so also like Pittsburgh -14 and Browns TT under 12', but not as much as the under. are you waiting to see if you can get 39? i think that it will get there, which would save us in the event of 26-13. only place where the Browns have a pulse is on the defensive side of the ball, and with both teams having top-10 defenses and crappy offensive lines, i can't see a lot of points being scored. my concern is if Pittsburgh completely rolls up Cleveland and scores 30+, essentially getting the over by themselves.

Feeling's are similiar to Biff Tee, although my book doesn't offer the TT.

I put 1/2 unit on Pitt., 1/2 unit on Pitt/under 39 parlay and a full unit on a Pitt./Under 7 pt. tease which got me to -7,46.

Gl fella's.

[Redscot]

Just hit 39 1/2.........

[BiffTFinancial]

Feeling's are similiar to Biff Tee, although my book doesn't offer the TT. I put 1/2 unit on Pitt., 1/2 unit on Pitt/under 39 parlay and a full unit on a Pitt./Under 7 pt. tease which got me to -7,46. Gl fella's.

big steam on the total. now at 40 with Browns TT at 13. man, both are hard to resist. maybe i'll play Browns TT under and tease PIT/under.

[Trivial]

I am guessing we wait until under 41.

[Redscot]

big steam on the total. now at 40 with Browns TT at 13. man, both are hard to resist. maybe i'll play Browns TT under and tease PIT/under.

Yeah, looks like I jumped the gun too early on this one .

[Donnie Brasco]

5d wont allow side and total tease on the pitt game?!?!?

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 14

Play #1

Bills/Chargers over (47) 3x (Locked)

I may add another unit to this play but I want to see where the line moves. I am getting 48 at my sharper book and 47 at my squarish book, so that's always a good sign. Pinny has this one juiced up on the over at 47.5 and I expect them to make a move to 48 soon. If they make that move and I can still get 47, this will become a 4x play. Despite all of the Bills injuries and overall problems, they remain a top 13 offense in all of the advanced efficiency stats for both the pass and the rush, while SD is top 10 in both (top 5 in many). In addition, both offenses have big play capabilities through the air and can score quickly. However, what makes this a play is the weaknesses of the two defenses. Both defenses are in the bottom 6 of the league and I don't see any improvements coming this weekend. Bth defenses have suffered injuries to some of their best players and neither defense has recovered. Just because SD held Jax to 14 points, doesn't mean their defense has turned the corner and is now stout again. Instead, that is more an indictment on the Jax offense than an endorsement of the SD defense. The strength of both offenses comes through the air, but both the Bills' Spiller and Chargers' Matthews are capable of gashing the other team for some big plays and big rushing days. Also interesting is that both teams are top 10 in offensive yards per play, but bottom 10 in defensive yards per play. All of the stats point to the over in this game. I have this one set at 50, which may seem a little high, but the advantage of offense over defense in this game is huge. Bottom line is that I expect a shootout and I'm going to take the value here on the over. I am rolling with the over for 3x, but might add more later. Good luck.

Play #2

Browns/Steelers under (40) 1x (Locked)

This might get to 40.5, but its not going to 41. I was waiting to get a better number than 38 and I am happy to get 40. Because I will be busy at work unable to monitor line movement, I am jumping on the 40 now rather than risk losing that number. I think we see a game dominated by rushing and defense. The Browns are a top 10 defensive team against the pass in epa, dvoa, epa/p, wpa and sr%. However, they struggle mightily against the run where they rank in the bottom five. I expect the steelers to find success with Mendenhall and have no need to resort to their dangerous pass attack in the 2h. Pittsburgh should take command of this game and limit the browns through the air. However, the browns may find some success on the ground if Hills is ready to go against a steelers defense susceptible to the run. While this wont lead to a ton of points, the browns should be able to get some first downs and keep the clock moving. I have this game set at 37 and would have played the under at 39. Once I was able to get 40, I had to jump on it despite the steam on the over. I think this one closes below 39 illustrating that this movement on the over was made more for a better number on the under than a true move on the over. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Pick'nParlays]

bol lta i like the under...also like Pitt first half

[BiffTFinancial]

BOL, LTA. like your reasoning and your pick, glad to see that the line movement doesn't concern you (public is on the over, after all). trying to decide between Browns TT under and game under myself.

[GChild]

Let get this!!

[Luv2Play2]

already took both und biff

BOL, LTA. like your reasoning and your pick, glad to see that the line movement doesn't concern you (public is on the over, after all). trying to decide between Browns TT under and game under myself.

bol always

got tt und 13

[frank416c]

love the picks and analysis

[Trivial]

Best of all tonight. I really like the UNDER also. The cold weather will help I believe tonight as well.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 14

Play #1

Bills/Chargers over (47) 4x (Locked)

I may add another unit to this play but I want to see where the line moves. I am getting 48 at my sharper book and 47 at my squarish book, so that's always a good sign. Pinny has this one juiced up on the over at 47.5 and I expect them to make a move to 48 soon. Despite all of the Bills injuries and overall problems, they remain a top 13 offense in all of the advanced efficiency stats for both the pass and the rush, while SD is top 10 in both (top 5 in many). In addition, both offenses have big play capabilities through the air and can score quickly. However, what makes this a play is the weaknesses of the two defenses. Both defenses are in the bottom 6 of the league and I don't see any improvements coming this weekend. Bth defenses have suffered injuries to some of their best players and neither defense has recovered. Just because SD held Jax to 14 points, doesn't mean their defense has turned the corner and is now stout again. Instead, that is more an indictment on the Jax offense than an endorsement of the SD defense. The strength of both offenses comes through the air, but both the Bills' Spiller and Chargers' Matthews are capable of gashing the other team for some big plays and big rushing days. Also interesting is that both teams are top 10 in offensive yards per play, but bottom 10 in defensive yards per play. All of the stats point to the over in this game. I have this one set at 50, which may seem a little high, but the advantage of offense over defense in this game is huge. Bottom line is that I expect a shootout and I'm going to take the value here on the over. I am rolling with the over for 4x. Good luck.

Play #2

Browns/Steelers under (40) 1x (Locked)

This might get to 40.5, but its not going to 41. I was waiting to get a better number than 38 and I am happy to get 40. Because I will be busy at work unable to monitor line movement, I am jumping on the 40 now rather than risk losing that number. I think we see a game dominated by rushing and defense. The Browns are a top 10 defensive team against the pass in epa, dvoa, epa/p, wpa and sr%. However, they struggle mightily against the run where they rank in the bottom five. I expect the steelers to find success with Mendenhall and have no need to resort to their dangerous pass attack in the 2h. Pittsburgh should take command of this game and limit the browns through the air. However, the browns may find some success on the ground if Hills is ready to go against a steelers defense susceptible to the run. While this wont lead to a ton of points, the browns should be able to get some first downs and keep the clock moving. I have this game set at 37 and would have played the under at 39. Once I was able to get 40, I had to jump on it despite the steam on the over. I think this one closes below 39 illustrating that this movement on the over was made more for a better number on the under than a true move on the over. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Added 1x to Play #1 for total of 4x on Bills/Chargers over (47) (Locked). Correct units denoted above.

I'm locking this in now. Pinny went back to juicing the 47.5 on the over and 5d moved to 48. I don't want to wait any longer for that fourth unit and risk my local going up off 47. I am rolling with the over for 4x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 14

Play #1

Bills/Chargers over (47) 4x (Locked)

I may add another unit to this play but I want to see where the line moves. I am getting 48 at my sharper book and 47 at my squarish book, so that's always a good sign. Pinny has this one juiced up on the over at 47.5 and I expect them to make a move to 48 soon. Despite all of the Bills injuries and overall problems, they remain a top 13 offense in all of the advanced efficiency stats for both the pass and the rush, while SD is top 10 in both (top 5 in many). In addition, both offenses have big play capabilities through the air and can score quickly. However, what makes this a play is the weaknesses of the two defenses. Both defenses are in the bottom 6 of the league and I don't see any improvements coming this weekend. Bth defenses have suffered injuries to some of their best players and neither defense has recovered. Just because SD held Jax to 14 points, doesn't mean their defense has turned the corner and is now stout again. Instead, that is more an indictment on the Jax offense than an endorsement of the SD defense. The strength of both offenses comes through the air, but both the Bills' Spiller and Chargers' Matthews are capable of gashing the other team for some big plays and big rushing days. Also interesting is that both teams are top 10 in offensive yards per play, but bottom 10 in defensive yards per play. All of the stats point to the over in this game. I have this one set at 50, which may seem a little high, but the advantage of offense over defense in this game is huge. Bottom line is that I expect a shootout and I'm going to take the value here on the over. I am rolling with the over for 4x. Good luck.

Play #2

Browns/Steelers under (40) 1x (Locked)

This might get to 40.5, but its not going to 41. I was waiting to get a better number than 38 and I am happy to get 40. Because I will be busy at work unable to monitor line movement, I am jumping on the 40 now rather than risk losing that number. I think we see a game dominated by rushing and defense. The Browns are a top 10 defensive team against the pass in epa, dvoa, epa/p, wpa and sr%. However, they struggle mightily against the run where they rank in the bottom five. I expect the steelers to find success with Mendenhall and have no need to resort to their dangerous pass attack in the 2h. Pittsburgh should take command of this game and limit the browns through the air. However, the browns may find some success on the ground if Hills is ready to go against a steelers defense susceptible to the run. While this wont lead to a ton of points, the browns should be able to get some first downs and keep the clock moving. I have this game set at 37 and would have played the under at 39. Once I was able to get 40, I had to jump on it despite the steam on the over. I think this one closes below 39 illustrating that this movement on the over was made more for a better number on the under than a true move on the over. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Texans/Bengals under (39) 1x (Locked)

Most of the market is at 38.5 or 38 right now, so when one my locals moved to 39, I jumped on it. Good thing too, as they moved right back down to 38.5 within 5 minutes of me locking this in. I actually wanted to get 40, but I'm not sure this gets there and I didn't want to lose out on the 39. I like this play enough to make it a 2x play if I like the line movement before game time and I can still get a decent number no lower than 38. You have two teams with rookie quarterbacks squaring off after the 12th game of the season when rookies tend to hit the wall (especially rookie qb's). Those rookies are going to be against two of the best defenses according to the advanced stats. However, each teams' defensive strength is especially successful against each teams' offensive strength. On offense, Houston needs to run the ball with success to take some pressure off of Yates (even if Delhomme plays a bit). However, Cincy's run defense is top 5 in the league in defensive rushing EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. Therefore, I don't see Houston finding a ton of success on the ground against Cincy. Similarly, on offense, Cincy will try to get the ball to AJ Green through the air but will face off against Houston's top 3 defense against the pass in EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. However, even if Cincy tries to run the ball with Benson, you still have to face Houston's to 10 run defense in the same advanced statistical categories. Bottom line is that I think you see both defenses come after these young qb's, stop the run and this one turns into a defensive struggle. Low total unders are always susceptible to turnover or special teams touchdowns, so we just need to cross our fingers and hope those don't happen. Otherwise, I see this one staying under the posted total and have this set at 36.5 giving us 2.5 points of value. I am rolling with the under for 1x now and might add to this one down the road. Good luck.

[NeverBackDown]

[Donnie Brasco]

Ruh roh, pitt defense is sleeping on us!

[Trivial]

That TD called back is a good thing.

[Trivial]

Congrats everyone on the win tonight.

[Redscot]

Play #2

Browns/Steelers under (40) 1x (Locked)

This might get to 40.5, but its not going to 41. I was waiting to get a better number than 38 and I am happy to get 40. Because I will be busy at work unable to monitor line movement, I am jumping on the 40 now rather than risk losing that number. I think we see a game dominated by rushing and defense. The Browns are a top 10 defensive team against the pass in epa, dvoa, epa/p, wpa and sr%. However, they struggle mightily against the run where they rank in the bottom five. I expect the steelers to find success with Mendenhall and have no need to resort to their dangerous pass attack in the 2h. Pittsburgh should take command of this game and limit the browns through the air. However, the browns may find some success on the ground if Hills is ready to go against a steelers defense susceptible to the run. While this wont lead to a ton of points, the browns should be able to get some first downs and keep the clock moving. I have this game set at 37 and would have played the under at 39. Once I was able to get 40, I had to jump on it despite the steam on the over. I think this one closes below 39 illustrating that this movement on the over was made more for a better number on the under than a true move on the over. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Nice call bro. Pit. did what we thought they would do to the Browns offense, turnovers in the red zone hurt my Pitt. play. Man, I half expected Batch to be wearing a leather helmet when I saw him come in the game, can't believe he is still around .

[fly fisher]

LTA,
Thanks for the write up, I already had Pitt at Under 39, then when I read your post it influenced me to put a little more when it went up to 40.5, then when I saw it at 3-7 and live betting had under at 44.5 -105, I couldn't resist and put a little more on it.

The game played out as you expected and it worked out well for all of us, thanks.

[pacocn]

Lta, nice call

[Love The Action]

Nice call bro. Pit. did what we thought they would do to the Browns offense, turnovers in the red zone hurt my Pitt. play. Man, I half expected Batch to be wearing a leather helmet when I saw him come in the game, can't believe he is still around .

Remember Batch on the Lions

[Love The Action]

LTA,
Thanks for the write up, I already had Pitt at Under 39, then when I read your post it influenced me to put a little more when it went up to 40.5, then when I saw it at 3-7 and live betting had under at 44.5 -105, I couldn't resist and put a little more on it.

The game played out as you expected and it worked out well for all of us, thanks.

[Love The Action]

Lta, nice call

[Love The Action]

What odds to you get for Wong teasers (2 team 6 pt) and at what book? The best I can get is -110 which is the top end price for a Wong eligible teaser. Its my understanding that most books no longer have these for +100 and after this season that will certainly be the case. What does your book have?

[poloman]

at 5D it is teaser ties reduce 2 teams +100 and teaser ties win -105 for football 6 pts

[GChild]

Play #2

Browns/Steelers under (40) 1x (Locked)

This might get to 40.5, but its not going to 41. I was waiting to get a better number than 38 and I am happy to get 40. Because I will be busy at work unable to monitor line movement, I am jumping on the 40 now rather than risk losing that number. I think we see a game dominated by rushing and defense. The Browns are a top 10 defensive team against the pass in epa, dvoa, epa/p, wpa and sr%. However, they struggle mightily against the run where they rank in the bottom five. I expect the steelers to find success with Mendenhall and have no need to resort to their dangerous pass attack in the 2h. Pittsburgh should take command of this game and limit the browns through the air. However, the browns may find some success on the ground if Hills is ready to go against a steelers defense susceptible to the run. While this wont lead to a ton of points, the browns should be able to get some first downs and keep the clock moving. I have this game set at 37 and would have played the under at 39. Once I was able to get 40, I had to jump on it despite the steam on the over. I think this one closes below 39 illustrating that this movement on the over was made more for a better number on the under than a true move on the over. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Booooooom nice job big guy

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 14

Play #1

Bills/Chargers over (47) 4x (Locked)

I may add another unit to this play but I want to see where the line moves. I am getting 48 at my sharper book and 47 at my squarish book, so that's always a good sign. Pinny has this one juiced up on the over at 47.5 and I expect them to make a move to 48 soon. Despite all of the Bills injuries and overall problems, they remain a top 13 offense in all of the advanced efficiency stats for both the pass and the rush, while SD is top 10 in both (top 5 in many). In addition, both offenses have big play capabilities through the air and can score quickly. However, what makes this a play is the weaknesses of the two defenses. Both defenses are in the bottom 6 of the league and I don't see any improvements coming this weekend. Bth defenses have suffered injuries to some of their best players and neither defense has recovered. Just because SD held Jax to 14 points, doesn't mean their defense has turned the corner and is now stout again. Instead, that is more an indictment on the Jax offense than an endorsement of the SD defense. The strength of both offenses comes through the air, but both the Bills' Spiller and Chargers' Matthews are capable of gashing the other team for some big plays and big rushing days. Also interesting is that both teams are top 10 in offensive yards per play, but bottom 10 in defensive yards per play. All of the stats point to the over in this game. I have this one set at 50, which may seem a little high, but the advantage of offense over defense in this game is huge. Bottom line is that I expect a shootout and I'm going to take the value here on the over. I am rolling with the over for 4x. Good luck.

Play #2

Browns/Steelers under (40) 1x (Locked)

This might get to 40.5, but its not going to 41. I was waiting to get a better number than 38 and I am happy to get 40. Because I will be busy at work unable to monitor line movement, I am jumping on the 40 now rather than risk losing that number. I think we see a game dominated by rushing and defense. The Browns are a top 10 defensive team against the pass in epa, dvoa, epa/p, wpa and sr%. However, they struggle mightily against the run where they rank in the bottom five. I expect the steelers to find success with Mendenhall and have no need to resort to their dangerous pass attack in the 2h. Pittsburgh should take command of this game and limit the browns through the air. However, the browns may find some success on the ground if Hills is ready to go against a steelers defense susceptible to the run. While this wont lead to a ton of points, the browns should be able to get some first downs and keep the clock moving. I have this game set at 37 and would have played the under at 39. Once I was able to get 40, I had to jump on it despite the steam on the over. I think this one closes below 39 illustrating that this movement on the over was made more for a better number on the under than a true move on the over. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Texans/Bengals under (39) 1x (Locked)

Most of the market is at 38.5 or 38 right now, so when one my locals moved to 39, I jumped on it. Good thing too, as they moved right back down to 38.5 within 5 minutes of me locking this in. I actually wanted to get 40, but I'm not sure this gets there and I didn't want to lose out on the 39. I like this play enough to make it a 2x play if I like the line movement before game time and I can still get a decent number no lower than 38. You have two teams with rookie quarterbacks squaring off after the 12th game of the season when rookies tend to hit the wall (especially rookie qb's). Those rookies are going to be against two of the best defenses according to the advanced stats. However, each teams' defensive strength is especially successful against each teams' offensive strength. On offense, Houston needs to run the ball with success to take some pressure off of Yates (even if Delhomme plays a bit). However, Cincy's run defense is top 5 in the league in defensive rushing EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. Therefore, I don't see Houston finding a ton of success on the ground against Cincy. Similarly, on offense, Cincy will try to get the ball to AJ Green through the air but will face off against Houston's top 3 defense against the pass in EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. However, even if Cincy tries to run the ball with Benson, you still have to face Houston's to 10 run defense in the same advanced statistical categories. Bottom line is that I think you see both defenses come after these young qb's, stop the run and this one turns into a defensive struggle. Low total unders are always susceptible to turnover or special teams touchdowns, so we just need to cross our fingers and hope those don't happen. Otherwise, I see this one staying under the posted total and have this set at 36.5 giving us 2.5 points of value. I am rolling with the under for 1x now and might add to this one down the road. Good luck.

Play #4

Falcons/Panthers over (47) 2x (Locked)

Writeup to come tonight, but wanted to post this now in case the odds change. Good luck.

[rwd201]

MERRY CHRISTMAS LTA and all your fans

Cin+4
PHI+10
SF+3.5
CHI+10
Dal+4

5 team teaser
R100/W350

[Trivial]

What odds to you get for Wong teasers (2 team 6 pt) and at what book? The best I can get is -110 which is the top end price for a Wong eligible teaser. Its my understanding that most books no longer have these for +100 and after this season that will certainly be the case. What does your book have?

Pinny and The Greek are 10 to 11.

Pinny goes to even money if the teaser is in the same game (i.e. side and total).

[djpremier36]

Titans/Saints to go under 50. What do you think LTA?

[Redscot]

Pinny and The Greek are 10 to 11.

Pinny goes to even money if the teaser is in the same game (i.e. side and total).

That is interesting, but doesn't necessarily surprise me. I have been teasing a lot this NFL season, primarily using the Wong principles on the sides and have found that when I pair the side with the total I have had less success than when I pair two sides. Teasing totals just isn't as profitable long term I don't think. Problem is the instant gratification thing when you have Thursday night and Monday night games. I also get -110 at my local for teasers.

[Love The Action]

Pinny and The Greek are 10 to 11.

Pinny goes to even money if the teaser is in the same game (i.e. side and total).

Thanks....that's what I thought

[Love The Action]

Titans/Saints to go under 50. What do you think LTA?

I have a strong lean in the direction, but still have some work to do on that one. I would probably only play it at 51 though. The key to this under, is getting 51.