LTA's NFL PLays

[lonelynoob]

this is in the books ....... saints will take off about 3-4 mins and punt det deep, you have all seen this movie before, and it doesnt end well

[Dexter]

Got 6 minutes left for 7 more...come on!

Detroit needs to just start throwing jump balls to Megatron. WTF, why don't they throw to him more?!?

they dont need jump balls - they are moving the ball with no problem. its penalties that are killing them.

[Love The Action]

that last lions drive raised my blood pressure just a little bit. that was amazing.

If the WR didn't go out of bounds, we would have won on that bomb

One more chance here for Detroit to score. Otherwise, NO will get the ball and run out the clock. Throw it up top to Megatron!!!

[Love The Action]

they dont need jump balls - they are moving the ball with no problem. its penalties that are killing them.

On 3rd and 13 from the NO 48, then need to be going to Megatron. That's their best player, feed him the ball.

[Dexter]

If the WR didn't go out of bounds, we would have won on that bomb

One more chance here for Detroit to score. Otherwise, NO will get the ball and run out the clock. Throw it up top to Megatron!!!

NO! lol

just take what is given - the saints are playing a prevent. i dont care how long it takes to get down the field.

[Love The Action]

this is in the books ....... saints will take off about 3-4 mins and punt det deep, you have all seen this movie before, and it doesnt end well

Detroit has the ball with 5 minutes left. It's now or never

[Dexter]

burleson did it again - cut this fuk right now!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Love The Action]

NO! lol

just take what is given - the saints are playing a prevent. i dont care how long it takes to get down the field.

I'm not saying to just throw it for no reason. They keep throwing it to Burleson and his goddamn pass interference penalties. Give it to your best player.

[BobbyD914]

Its rare to see an offensive interference called once in a game but 3 times on the same guy...c'mon

[Dexter]

another personal foul by a det thug. i have never seen anything like this

[Love The Action]

See....stop throwing it to Pettigrew, Burleson and all these losers and throw it to Johnson. This is unreal.

[Love The Action]

We are so screwed if Detroit doesn't score here.

[Love The Action]

[riffraff24]

One of the most ridiculous games I have ever seen. Lions are a complete joke. Anyone who takes that team seriously is delusional.

Tough game. ugh

[lonelynoob]

the biggest joke is the saints putting up 7 points in the 2nd half at home ???!!!!! THAT was BS

[Overbettor]

As a lifelong lions fan it pains me to say that they have reached a new low. I thought the 0-16 season was rock bottom but their lack of tact and professionalism tonight was absolutely unacceptable and truly embarrassing. I hang my head in shame once again.

[doogtonmai]

One of the most ridiculous games I have ever seen. Lions are a complete joke. Anyone who takes that team seriously is delusional.

Tough game. ugh

Yep well deserved! I took Detroit TT huge and the O and Detroit as well as teased. The teasers came in, but I figured Detroit would score 23 winning or behind. I've lost all my winnings this week on one play. I went with my gut on this, and I deserved the beating. They need to fire the coach. Oh well, back to the drawing board. I was disgusted, when the coach put his arm around the slugs who made the stupid mistakes. Imagine what Ditka would have done? They probably would have flagged the coach on a personal foul on his own player.

[Ab34]

As a lifelong lions fan it pains me to say that they have reached a new low. I thought the 0-16 season was rock bottom but their lack of tact and professionalism tonight was absolutely unacceptable and truly embarrassing. I hang my head in shame once again.

Same here man hard to root for that was more proud of the 0-16 team

[brucethebear]

I still can't believe the steelers game stayed under.....
Finally we caught a break, although we then got ****** over by the lions

[Redscot]

I feel your pain bro, had the total teased down to 49 . Thankfully I was on the Pitt under with you (didn't look good at the half) and the Wong's went 3 for 3 that I mentioned earlier in the week to ease the pain. If I were the owner of the Lions, Schwartz would be in my office today explaining why his team is incapable of playing like professionals. The idiocy/immaturity of that team is inexcusable.

What are your thoughts on tonight's game? San Diego has screwed me a few times already this year and I just know if I bet against them they will wake up and put a hurting on the Jags.

[Trivial]

Sorry to hear that. My mother did that on a cruise ship year ago, she was pretty wasted when it happened so it didn't hurt her until the next day.

I ended up having to take my dog back to the dog ER for another xray, but thankfully it confirmed that nothing was serious. She ate a bunch of grass yesterday (she is a Golden Retriever, notorious for doing things like this) and gave herself bad gas and acid reflux. Hopefully she learned her lesson.

Ouch. Hope your mom is better now. The worst is drunken injuries as you have a false sense of confidence and make things worse.

At the hospital now with my wife.

Glad your dog will be okay. Whew.

[Trivial]

I feel your pain bro, had the total teased down to 49 . Thankfully I was on the Pitt under with you (didn't look good at the half) and the Wong's went 3 for 3 that I mentioned earlier in the week to ease the pain. If I were the owner of the Lions, Schwartz would be in my office today explaining why his team is incapable of playing like professionals. The idiocy/immaturity of that team is inexcusable.

What are your thoughts on tonight's game? San Diego has screwed me a few times already this year and I just know if I bet against them they will wake up and put a hurting on the Jags.

Red : I am with you. San Diego and Carolina games (and now Detroit) are three teams I need to avoid or be burnt.

I am a no play tonight no matter what. Can't rely on either team tonight to play "as predicted - good or bad).

[Redscot]

Ouch. Hope your mom is better now. The worst is drunken injuries as you have a false sense of confidence and make things worse.

At the hospital now with my wife.

Glad your dog will be okay. Whew.

My best to you and yours Triv, just caught up on the thread...hope the wife recovers with as little pain as possible.

[Trivial]

My best to you and yours Triv, just caught up on the thread...hope the wife recovers with as little pain as possible.

Thanks so very much Red.

I appreciate it.

Specialist said 6 weeks this morning. Sigh. She did a good job.

Likely, will not be watching very many games over the next few weekends.

[Donnie Brasco]

Ok fwiw, i capped tonights game and i will be on jax. My only concern is all the distractions surrounding this team at the moment with ownership and where they will play in years to come. I have jax -1/2/with the total right on at 38.5. Team efficiency shows jax with the worst offense in the league and sd with the 16th best. The story for me is defense, where jax is 2nd in advanced team efficiency and sd is 30th. i think this sd team has mailed it in honestly, rivers is in horrid form. I will take a great defense, mjd, and gabbert who can shine at home against the struggling chargers traveling cross country. Not to mention over 70% on sd according to sportsbook spy. Jags in an ugly struggle 1x +3. Good luck. Early nfl for the weekend, niners -3 1x, denver -3.5 1x, denver under 36.5 1x.

[brucethebear]

The problem with games like tonight is it really is a crapshoot over which shit team will suck less.

[Donnie Brasco]

I feel since del rio gone, this team will be amped. Just a feeling. This is as much a fade of sd as it is play on jax!

[fly fisher]

I like the fact that Antonio Gates is now health and that Floyd should play, so I am going with SD. Could be wrong, i was way wrong yesterday so who knows. But that is my play.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 13

Play #1

Eagles/Seahawks under (44) 1x (Locked) LOSS

Got the number I wanted. Without Vick, Maclin, Rice and an dinged up McCoy, I just dont see this one hiiting 45 tonight. I have this total set at 41 so I am rolling with the value and playing the under for 1x. I may also tease Seattle with the under as well. Good luck.

Play #2

Bengals/Steelers under (43) 1x (Locked) WINNER

I just don't know how long Dalton can continue playing this well against top defenses. AJ Green is a monster, but he will be facing the Steelers for the second time now and I expect them to have a better read on his tendencies. Rookie quarterbacks tend to fade in the last month of the season as they are not used to playing this many games and I expect this "rookie wall" to hit Dalton and today is as good as any for a start since he's playing a Steelers defense that has really found its stride. Both teams aired it out last game, but I expect a little different strategy in this December game with playoff implications. It's time for ball control and defense and that is what I expect today from two teams that have the ability to play top notch defense. Both defenses are highly rated in advanced efficiency numbers and I expect those defenses to have success today. I have this set at 40.5 so I will take the value and roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Bears (-7) 1x (Locked) LOSS
Whether Palko or Orton is playing -- I think Palko will start the 1h and Orton the 2nd -- the Bears defense will be ready for this one. This is one where the defensive players know they can pad their stats and I expect that to happen. The Bears are a top 8 defense in defensive DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%, while KC is bottom 1/3 of the league. On offense, I expect a huge improvement from Hanie at home. I think being in Chicago is key as he will have the home crowd firmly behind him. I expect either a defensive or special teams score from the Bears today, which will prove the difference in this spread. Both Forte and Barber should have a solid day running the ball, which will create the play action passing opportunities that will foster Hanie's success. Plus, with his mobility, don't be surprised to see Martz run some rare rollouts which are generally not used in his offense. I have the Bears set at -8.5 and I love the home town team today. I am rolling with the Bears for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Falcons/Texans under (38) 1x (Locked)WINNER
The Texans will be relying on the run today with the rookie Yates going at qb. However, Atlanta is a top 5 defense against the run in advanced efficiency stats and in conventional stats. Therefore, we have two team strengths matching up today and I expect that matchup to give us an edge on the under. Don't be surprised if we see both teams decide to play a slow tempo game looking to control the clock and win with defense and special teams. Atlanta's passing offense is solid, but has not been as dangerous this year with an ineffective Roddy White. Regardless, Houston has one of the best defenses in the league and is basically top 5 against both the pass and rush in conventional and advanced stats. They should be able to limit Atlanta's attack at home. I expect a defensive struggle today. I have this one set at 36 and we're getting 2 points of value and covering the key numbers of 37 and 38. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Ravens/Browns under (38) 1x (Locked)WINNER

The Ravens offense home/away splits are polar opposites where they average over 30 points at home and more than 10 less on the Road. However, that Baltimore defense can keep them in any game. Here is another low total under that I am riding based on the premise that we see more running and defense than an air it out philosophy. We have the Browns with a dinged up McCoy and not much behind him other than a dinged up Peyton Hills. I'm just not confident in the Browns offense at all, but for them to win they are going to need to pound the rock. I expect the same from the Balty offense because Cleveland has a very strong pass defense ranked top 10 in the league in passing defense EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. I think we see a slower tempo game today by both teams. I have this one set at 36 and I'll take a shot on the under here with 2 points of value. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Packers/Giants over (53) 1x (Locked)WINNER

No time for an in-depth writeup as I have to watch the lines right now, but I will say that I just don't see the Giants injured secondary stopping Rodgers and that killer GB offensive attack. However, the Pack is susceptible on defense and with Bradshaw back that should create the play action vertical passing opportunities that are so critical to the Giants and Manning's success. I have this one set at the key number of 55 and I love getting this at 53 on the turf in nice weather with no wind. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Vikings (-1) 1x (Locked) LOSS
I am kicking myself for not locking in the Vikings at even money an hour ago, but I got greedy thinking that it would keep getting better as more Denver money came in. However, big steam hit the Vikings and I missed out. Nevertheless, week 2 of the Tebow fade is in full effect. I know Peterson isn't playing, but I don't think it matters as Von Miller is out for Denver which hurts that defense just as much. Von Miller has been a monster and a big reason that Denver has gone on this streak. On offense, I think Ponder is better than Tebow and I think the Vikings will finally wake up and force Tebow to beat them with his arm. Just pack the box and Tebow can't beat you. I am trusting Leslie Frazier to understand this simple concept. I have the Vikes set at -2, so not a ton of value here but this is all about my belief that Tebow cannot continue to lead this Denver to team to road wins game after game. They have to lose sometime and that time is today. I am rolling with the Vikes for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Jets/Redskins under (39) 1x (Locked) LOSS
I don't see this one going any higher, so I'm locking it up now. Bottom line is the Jets defense is still beloved by the advanced efficiency stats where they remain 5th in overall defensive EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%, while they are top 3 against the pass and top 10 against the run. I am not nor will ever be a believer in Grossman and I think Rex Ryan should be able to devise a blitz package to make that guy get happy feet. My concern is that the Jets force a few pick 6's or fumble recoveries for a touchdown. However, the Redskins defense is not at that top 5 level, but they are a top 11 defense overall and are very respectable against both the run and pass. I think that Redskins defense keeps them in the game and keeps this a low scoring game. I have this one set at 36.5, just below the key number of 37 so I have to take a shot on the low total under here. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #9

Lions/Saints over (54) 1.5x (Locked)LOSS

I was hoping to get 53, but it never materialized. I should have locked this one in earlier this week but I messed up thinking it would come back down. However, it started to steam at Pinny and I wanted to get it at 54 before they added the hook. Bottom line is that the Saints offense is killer at home and the Lions defense will be handicapped without the presence of Suh. The Saints will have trouble with Megatron on the turf and the Smith has been better than I expected at RB. With Stafford's finger healing, I think his accuracy improves indoors tonight. I have this one set at 56, which is why I wanted 53 so bad. I am rolling with the over for 1.5x. Good luck.

Play #10

Raiders/Dolphins over (43) 1x (Locked)WINNER
I've been waiting for a move on this line, but it's pretty much been at 43 with no movement today. I just think Miami's under streak ends today as Oakland comes to town with a bruising Michael Bush and a sharp Carson Palmer. However, that Oakland defense struggles against the run and I think the Dolphins rushing attack finds some success today. McClain should play, but I think perhaps he might not play as much. Regardless, I think Moore finds some success today through the air. I think we see a competitive game with both teams scoring 3 touchdowns or more. I have this one set at 45 with 2 points of value. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #11

Chargers (-3) 1x (Locked)

I have to roll with a healthy San Diego offense against a Jacksonville defense decimated by injuries. Perhaps my decision would be different if the Jaguars did not have so many defensive injuries, however, I just can't back the Jags with 5 defensive starters missing from the defensive unit which was so highly ranked earlier in the year. Even though the Jags are a top 8 defense in advanced efficiency stats such as DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%, those numbers were put up by a team that is no longer on the field. In the last few weeks, the Jags have lost both starting cornerbacks, three defensive lineman now that Kampman may be out as well and a starting linebacker. I just don't think that multiple second team players can hang with an offense that is essentially a top 10 offense even with a quarterback who is having his worst professional season. Regardless, no one can tell me that they would rather have Gabbert over Rivers tonight. Bottom line is that while defense may win championships, offense wins games. Neither of these teams is a Super Bowl contender, so I'm going to back the better offense tonight. The Chargers boast the better offensive line, the better quarterback, the better receivers and a comparable running back against one of the worst offenses in the league that is playing a rookie quarterback. Even though the Jags are at home, I think the loss of Del Rio will hurt as opposed to help this team. From my understanding, most of the players were behind Del Rio this season and the firing was simply done because of the ownership change. This was not a change that was supported by the players. I just don't see any way the Jags hang in this game with no offensive punch and a defense decimated by injuries. I have the Charges set at -4.5 and we are getting 1.5 points of value here. Therefore, I am rolling with the Chargers for 1x. Good luck.

[YouHave2outs]

with you big on chargers here LTA. bol tonight!

[lonelynoob]

whats your thoughts on the total LTA ??? 39 1/2 .....

[Love The Action]

with you big on chargers here LTA. bol tonight!

[lambert58]

whats your thoughts on the total LTA ??? 39 1/2 .....

I do like San Diego in this game but i like the Over 100 times better.
Good Luck

[Love The Action]

whats your thoughts on the total LTA ??? 39 1/2 .....

No opinion. I have the total set at 39.5, so any number between 39 and 40.5 is unplayable. If you could get 41.5, I would like to the under. However, at the current number I see no value or other reason to make a play on the total. GL in whatever you choose.

[Dave88]

Thanks LTA. I had to bet early before I saw the write-up and took the -3.5.
Glad to see you went the same way! Good Luck!