LTA's NFL PLays

[killersweet]

Do u have any leans on the SF Vs Stl total Lta ? I am leaning on the under based on SF's run defense and ram's struggling offense.
thanks

[NYSportsGuy210]

I like Falcons Pick'em or (-1) today.....Raiders (+3)....and over 53.5 in Lions-Saints game.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 13

Play #1

Eagles/Seahawks under (44) 1x (Locked) LOSS

Got the number I wanted. Without Vick, Maclin, Rice and an dinged up McCoy, I just dont see this one hiiting 45 tonight. I have this total set at 41 so I am rolling with the value and playing the under for 1x. I may also tease Seattle with the under as well. Good luck.

Play #2

Bengals/Steelers under (43) 1x (Locked)

I just don't know how long Dalton can continue playing this well against top defenses. AJ Green is a monster, but he will be facing the Steelers for the second time now and I expect them to have a better read on his tendencies. Rookie quarterbacks tend to fade in the last month of the season as they are not used to playing this many games and I expect this "rookie wall" to hit Dalton and today is as good as any for a start since he's playing a Steelers defense that has really found its stride. Both teams aired it out last game, but I expect a little different strategy in this December game with playoff implications. It's time for ball control and defense and that is what I expect today from two teams that have the ability to play top notch defense. Both defenses are highly rated in advanced efficiency numbers and I expect those defenses to have success today. I have this set at 40.5 so I will take the value and roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Bears (-7) 1x (Locked)

Whether Palko or Orton is playing -- I think Palko will start the 1h and Orton the 2nd -- the Bears defense will be ready for this one. This is one where the defensive players know they can pad their stats and I expect that to happen. The Bears are a top 8 defense in defensive DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%, while KC is bottom 1/3 of the league. On offense, I expect a huge improvement from Hanie at home. I think being in Chicago is key as he will have the home crowd firmly behind him. I expect either a defensive or special teams score from the Bears today, which will prove the difference in this spread. Both Forte and Barber should have a solid day running the ball, which will create the play action passing opportunities that will foster Hanie's success. Plus, with his mobility, don't be surprised to see Martz run some rare rollouts which are generally not used in his offense. I have the Bears set at -8.5 and I love the home town team today. I am rolling with the Bears for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Falcons/Texans under (38) 1x (Locked)

The Texans will be relying on the run today with the rookie Yates going at qb. However, Atlanta is a top 5 defense against the run in advanced efficiency stats and in conventional stats. Therefore, we have two team strengths matching up today and I expect that matchup to give us an edge on the under. Don't be surprised if we see both teams decide to play a slow tempo game looking to control the clock and win with defense and special teams. Atlanta's passing offense is solid, but has not been as dangerous this year with an ineffective Roddy White. Regardless, Houston has one of the best defenses in the league and is basically top 5 against both the pass and rush in conventional and advanced stats. They should be able to limit Atlanta's attack at home. I expect a defensive struggle today. I have this one set at 36 and we're getting 2 points of value and covering the key numbers of 37 and 38. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Ravens/Browns under (38) 1x (Locked)

The Ravens offense home/away splits are polar opposites where they average over 30 points at home and more than 10 less on the Road. However, that Baltimore defense can keep them in any game. Here is another low total under that I am riding based on the premise that we see more running and defense than an air it out philosophy. We have the Browns with a dinged up McCoy and not much behind him other than a dinged up Peyton Hills. I'm just not confident in the Browns offense at all, but for them to win they are going to need to pound the rock. I expect the same from the Balty offense because Cleveland has a very strong pass defense ranked top 10 in the league in passing defense EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. I think we see a slower tempo game today by both teams. I have this one set at 36 and I'll take a shot on the under here with 2 points of value. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Do u have any leans on the SF Vs Stl total Lta ? I am leaning on the under based on SF's run defense and ram's struggling offense.
thanks

I think that total is pretty accurate. I'm worried about the health of Rams defense with Long and SF can explod at home. There was a pretty solid line move up to 38.5, so I'm going to wait and see where that one goes and do some more work on that game after the noon games start. GL

[Love The Action]

I like Falcons Pick'em or (-1) today.....Raiders (+3)....and over 53.5 in Lions-Saints game.

I really like that Lions/Saints over as well. That will probably be a play for me, but I am holding out hope of getting 53. I don't like taking an NFL over higher than 53.

No opinion on the side in the Raiders game. I think that number is on point. I do like the over and will probably play that as well, just waiting for a better number as I think Miami's under streak will cause a dip in the total.

Be careful on Atlanta. Houston has a great defense and Atlanta is dinged up a bit on offense in the backfield with Turner and the fullback. I know Yates is not highly rated, but all he needs to do is keep this one close and manage the game. If he doesn't turn the ball over, I think this could be a coinflip game at the end with a last second field goal one way or the other. I am already on the under though and love that play.

GL

[MidgetTossers]

Good luck on your plays today LTA...I don't post in your thread but your threads are one of the few I always check before I make my final plays. Much respect to you..Love your write-ups and wish there were more people like you on this site! Keep up the solid work you are doing..

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 13

Play #1

Eagles/Seahawks under (44) 1x (Locked) LOSS

Got the number I wanted. Without Vick, Maclin, Rice and an dinged up McCoy, I just dont see this one hiiting 45 tonight. I have this total set at 41 so I am rolling with the value and playing the under for 1x. I may also tease Seattle with the under as well. Good luck.

Play #2

Bengals/Steelers under (43) 1x (Locked)

I just don't know how long Dalton can continue playing this well against top defenses. AJ Green is a monster, but he will be facing the Steelers for the second time now and I expect them to have a better read on his tendencies. Rookie quarterbacks tend to fade in the last month of the season as they are not used to playing this many games and I expect this "rookie wall" to hit Dalton and today is as good as any for a start since he's playing a Steelers defense that has really found its stride. Both teams aired it out last game, but I expect a little different strategy in this December game with playoff implications. It's time for ball control and defense and that is what I expect today from two teams that have the ability to play top notch defense. Both defenses are highly rated in advanced efficiency numbers and I expect those defenses to have success today. I have this set at 40.5 so I will take the value and roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Bears (-7) 1x (Locked)

Whether Palko or Orton is playing -- I think Palko will start the 1h and Orton the 2nd -- the Bears defense will be ready for this one. This is one where the defensive players know they can pad their stats and I expect that to happen. The Bears are a top 8 defense in defensive DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%, while KC is bottom 1/3 of the league. On offense, I expect a huge improvement from Hanie at home. I think being in Chicago is key as he will have the home crowd firmly behind him. I expect either a defensive or special teams score from the Bears today, which will prove the difference in this spread. Both Forte and Barber should have a solid day running the ball, which will create the play action passing opportunities that will foster Hanie's success. Plus, with his mobility, don't be surprised to see Martz run some rare rollouts which are generally not used in his offense. I have the Bears set at -8.5 and I love the home town team today. I am rolling with the Bears for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Falcons/Texans under (38) 1x (Locked)

The Texans will be relying on the run today with the rookie Yates going at qb. However, Atlanta is a top 5 defense against the run in advanced efficiency stats and in conventional stats. Therefore, we have two team strengths matching up today and I expect that matchup to give us an edge on the under. Don't be surprised if we see both teams decide to play a slow tempo game looking to control the clock and win with defense and special teams. Atlanta's passing offense is solid, but has not been as dangerous this year with an ineffective Roddy White. Regardless, Houston has one of the best defenses in the league and is basically top 5 against both the pass and rush in conventional and advanced stats. They should be able to limit Atlanta's attack at home. I expect a defensive struggle today. I have this one set at 36 and we're getting 2 points of value and covering the key numbers of 37 and 38. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Ravens/Browns under (38) 1x (Locked)

The Ravens offense home/away splits are polar opposites where they average over 30 points at home and more than 10 less on the Road. However, that Baltimore defense can keep them in any game. Here is another low total under that I am riding based on the premise that we see more running and defense than an air it out philosophy. We have the Browns with a dinged up McCoy and not much behind him other than a dinged up Peyton Hills. I'm just not confident in the Browns offense at all, but for them to win they are going to need to pound the rock. I expect the same from the Balty offense because Cleveland has a very strong pass defense ranked top 10 in the league in passing defense EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. I think we see a slower tempo game today by both teams. I have this one set at 36 and I'll take a shot on the under here with 2 points of value. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Packers/Giants over (53) 1x (Locked)

No time for an in-depth writeup as I have to watch the lines right now, but I will say that I just don't see the Giants injured secondary stopping Rodgers and that killer GB offensive attack. However, the Pack is susceptible on defense and with Bradshaw back that should create the play action vertical passing opportunities that are so critical to the Giants and Manning's success. I have this one set at the key number of 55 and I love getting this at 53 on the turf in nice weather with no wind. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 13

Play #1

Eagles/Seahawks under (44) 1x (Locked) LOSS

Got the number I wanted. Without Vick, Maclin, Rice and an dinged up McCoy, I just dont see this one hiiting 45 tonight. I have this total set at 41 so I am rolling with the value and playing the under for 1x. I may also tease Seattle with the under as well. Good luck.

Play #2

Bengals/Steelers under (43) 1x (Locked)

I just don't know how long Dalton can continue playing this well against top defenses. AJ Green is a monster, but he will be facing the Steelers for the second time now and I expect them to have a better read on his tendencies. Rookie quarterbacks tend to fade in the last month of the season as they are not used to playing this many games and I expect this "rookie wall" to hit Dalton and today is as good as any for a start since he's playing a Steelers defense that has really found its stride. Both teams aired it out last game, but I expect a little different strategy in this December game with playoff implications. It's time for ball control and defense and that is what I expect today from two teams that have the ability to play top notch defense. Both defenses are highly rated in advanced efficiency numbers and I expect those defenses to have success today. I have this set at 40.5 so I will take the value and roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Bears (-7) 1x (Locked)

Whether Palko or Orton is playing -- I think Palko will start the 1h and Orton the 2nd -- the Bears defense will be ready for this one. This is one where the defensive players know they can pad their stats and I expect that to happen. The Bears are a top 8 defense in defensive DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%, while KC is bottom 1/3 of the league. On offense, I expect a huge improvement from Hanie at home. I think being in Chicago is key as he will have the home crowd firmly behind him. I expect either a defensive or special teams score from the Bears today, which will prove the difference in this spread. Both Forte and Barber should have a solid day running the ball, which will create the play action passing opportunities that will foster Hanie's success. Plus, with his mobility, don't be surprised to see Martz run some rare rollouts which are generally not used in his offense. I have the Bears set at -8.5 and I love the home town team today. I am rolling with the Bears for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Falcons/Texans under (38) 1x (Locked)

The Texans will be relying on the run today with the rookie Yates going at qb. However, Atlanta is a top 5 defense against the run in advanced efficiency stats and in conventional stats. Therefore, we have two team strengths matching up today and I expect that matchup to give us an edge on the under. Don't be surprised if we see both teams decide to play a slow tempo game looking to control the clock and win with defense and special teams. Atlanta's passing offense is solid, but has not been as dangerous this year with an ineffective Roddy White. Regardless, Houston has one of the best defenses in the league and is basically top 5 against both the pass and rush in conventional and advanced stats. They should be able to limit Atlanta's attack at home. I expect a defensive struggle today. I have this one set at 36 and we're getting 2 points of value and covering the key numbers of 37 and 38. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Ravens/Browns under (38) 1x (Locked)

The Ravens offense home/away splits are polar opposites where they average over 30 points at home and more than 10 less on the Road. However, that Baltimore defense can keep them in any game. Here is another low total under that I am riding based on the premise that we see more running and defense than an air it out philosophy. We have the Browns with a dinged up McCoy and not much behind him other than a dinged up Peyton Hills. I'm just not confident in the Browns offense at all, but for them to win they are going to need to pound the rock. I expect the same from the Balty offense because Cleveland has a very strong pass defense ranked top 10 in the league in passing defense EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. I think we see a slower tempo game today by both teams. I have this one set at 36 and I'll take a shot on the under here with 2 points of value. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Packers/Giants over (53) 1x (Locked)

No time for an in-depth writeup as I have to watch the lines right now, but I will say that I just don't see the Giants injured secondary stopping Rodgers and that killer GB offensive attack. However, the Pack is susceptible on defense and with Bradshaw back that should create the play action vertical passing opportunities that are so critical to the Giants and Manning's success. I have this one set at the key number of 55 and I love getting this at 53 on the turf in nice weather with no wind. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Vikings (-1) 1x (Locked)

I am kicking myself for not locking in the Vikings at even money an hour ago, but I got greedy thinking that it would keep getting better as more Denver money came in. However, big steam hit the Vikings and I missed out. Nevertheless, week 2 of the Tebow fade is in full effect. I know Peterson isn't playing, but I don't think it matters as Von Miller is out for Denver which hurts that defense just as much. Von Miller has been a monster and a big reason that Denver has gone on this streak. On offense, I think Ponder is better than Tebow and I think the Vikings will finally wake up and force Tebow to beat them with his arm. Just pack the box and Tebow can't beat you. I am trusting Leslie Frazier to understand this simple concept. I have the Vikes set at -2, so not a ton of value here but this is all about my belief that Tebow cannot continue to lead this Denver to team to road wins game after game. They have to lose sometime and that time is today. I am rolling with the Vikes for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 13

Play #1

Eagles/Seahawks under (44) 1x (Locked) LOSS

Got the number I wanted. Without Vick, Maclin, Rice and an dinged up McCoy, I just dont see this one hiiting 45 tonight. I have this total set at 41 so I am rolling with the value and playing the under for 1x. I may also tease Seattle with the under as well. Good luck.

Play #2

Bengals/Steelers under (43) 1x (Locked)

I just don't know how long Dalton can continue playing this well against top defenses. AJ Green is a monster, but he will be facing the Steelers for the second time now and I expect them to have a better read on his tendencies. Rookie quarterbacks tend to fade in the last month of the season as they are not used to playing this many games and I expect this "rookie wall" to hit Dalton and today is as good as any for a start since he's playing a Steelers defense that has really found its stride. Both teams aired it out last game, but I expect a little different strategy in this December game with playoff implications. It's time for ball control and defense and that is what I expect today from two teams that have the ability to play top notch defense. Both defenses are highly rated in advanced efficiency numbers and I expect those defenses to have success today. I have this set at 40.5 so I will take the value and roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Bears (-7) 1x (Locked)

Whether Palko or Orton is playing -- I think Palko will start the 1h and Orton the 2nd -- the Bears defense will be ready for this one. This is one where the defensive players know they can pad their stats and I expect that to happen. The Bears are a top 8 defense in defensive DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%, while KC is bottom 1/3 of the league. On offense, I expect a huge improvement from Hanie at home. I think being in Chicago is key as he will have the home crowd firmly behind him. I expect either a defensive or special teams score from the Bears today, which will prove the difference in this spread. Both Forte and Barber should have a solid day running the ball, which will create the play action passing opportunities that will foster Hanie's success. Plus, with his mobility, don't be surprised to see Martz run some rare rollouts which are generally not used in his offense. I have the Bears set at -8.5 and I love the home town team today. I am rolling with the Bears for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Falcons/Texans under (38) 1x (Locked)

The Texans will be relying on the run today with the rookie Yates going at qb. However, Atlanta is a top 5 defense against the run in advanced efficiency stats and in conventional stats. Therefore, we have two team strengths matching up today and I expect that matchup to give us an edge on the under. Don't be surprised if we see both teams decide to play a slow tempo game looking to control the clock and win with defense and special teams. Atlanta's passing offense is solid, but has not been as dangerous this year with an ineffective Roddy White. Regardless, Houston has one of the best defenses in the league and is basically top 5 against both the pass and rush in conventional and advanced stats. They should be able to limit Atlanta's attack at home. I expect a defensive struggle today. I have this one set at 36 and we're getting 2 points of value and covering the key numbers of 37 and 38. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Ravens/Browns under (38) 1x (Locked)

The Ravens offense home/away splits are polar opposites where they average over 30 points at home and more than 10 less on the Road. However, that Baltimore defense can keep them in any game. Here is another low total under that I am riding based on the premise that we see more running and defense than an air it out philosophy. We have the Browns with a dinged up McCoy and not much behind him other than a dinged up Peyton Hills. I'm just not confident in the Browns offense at all, but for them to win they are going to need to pound the rock. I expect the same from the Balty offense because Cleveland has a very strong pass defense ranked top 10 in the league in passing defense EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. I think we see a slower tempo game today by both teams. I have this one set at 36 and I'll take a shot on the under here with 2 points of value. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Packers/Giants over (53) 1x (Locked)

No time for an in-depth writeup as I have to watch the lines right now, but I will say that I just don't see the Giants injured secondary stopping Rodgers and that killer GB offensive attack. However, the Pack is susceptible on defense and with Bradshaw back that should create the play action vertical passing opportunities that are so critical to the Giants and Manning's success. I have this one set at the key number of 55 and I love getting this at 53 on the turf in nice weather with no wind. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Vikings (-1) 1x (Locked)

I am kicking myself for not locking in the Vikings at even money an hour ago, but I got greedy thinking that it would keep getting better as more Denver money came in. However, big steam hit the Vikings and I missed out. Nevertheless, week 2 of the Tebow fade is in full effect. I know Peterson isn't playing, but I don't think it matters as Von Miller is out for Denver which hurts that defense just as much. Von Miller has been a monster and a big reason that Denver has gone on this streak. On offense, I think Ponder is better than Tebow and I think the Vikings will finally wake up and force Tebow to beat them with his arm. Just pack the box and Tebow can't beat you. I am trusting Leslie Frazier to understand this simple concept. I have the Vikes set at -2, so not a ton of value here but this is all about my belief that Tebow cannot continue to lead this Denver to team to road wins game after game. They have to lose sometime and that time is today. I am rolling with the Vikes for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Jets/Redskins under (39) 1x (Locked)

I don't see this one going any higher, so I'm locking it up now. Bottom line is the Jets defense is still beloved by the advanced efficiency stats where they remain 5th in overall defensive EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%, while they are top 3 against the pass and top 10 against the run. I am not nor will ever be a believer in Grossman and I think Rex Ryan should be able to devise a blitz package to make that guy get happy feet. My concern is that the Jets force a few pick 6's or fumble recoveries for a touchdown. However, the Redskins defense is not at that top 5 level, but they are a top 11 defense overall and are very respectable against both the run and pass. I think that Redskins defense keeps them in the game and keeps this a low scoring game. I have this one set at 36.5, just below the key number of 37 so I have to take a shot on the low total under here. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[killersweet]

Goodluck with ur plays today

[Donnie Brasco]

Card looks good bro! Best of luck, u deserve it!

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 13

Play #1

Eagles/Seahawks under (44) 1x (Locked) LOSS

Got the number I wanted. Without Vick, Maclin, Rice and an dinged up McCoy, I just dont see this one hiiting 45 tonight. I have this total set at 41 so I am rolling with the value and playing the under for 1x. I may also tease Seattle with the under as well. Good luck.

Play #2

Bengals/Steelers under (43) 1x (Locked)

I just don't know how long Dalton can continue playing this well against top defenses. AJ Green is a monster, but he will be facing the Steelers for the second time now and I expect them to have a better read on his tendencies. Rookie quarterbacks tend to fade in the last month of the season as they are not used to playing this many games and I expect this "rookie wall" to hit Dalton and today is as good as any for a start since he's playing a Steelers defense that has really found its stride. Both teams aired it out last game, but I expect a little different strategy in this December game with playoff implications. It's time for ball control and defense and that is what I expect today from two teams that have the ability to play top notch defense. Both defenses are highly rated in advanced efficiency numbers and I expect those defenses to have success today. I have this set at 40.5 so I will take the value and roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Bears (-7) 1x (Locked)

Whether Palko or Orton is playing -- I think Palko will start the 1h and Orton the 2nd -- the Bears defense will be ready for this one. This is one where the defensive players know they can pad their stats and I expect that to happen. The Bears are a top 8 defense in defensive DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%, while KC is bottom 1/3 of the league. On offense, I expect a huge improvement from Hanie at home. I think being in Chicago is key as he will have the home crowd firmly behind him. I expect either a defensive or special teams score from the Bears today, which will prove the difference in this spread. Both Forte and Barber should have a solid day running the ball, which will create the play action passing opportunities that will foster Hanie's success. Plus, with his mobility, don't be surprised to see Martz run some rare rollouts which are generally not used in his offense. I have the Bears set at -8.5 and I love the home town team today. I am rolling with the Bears for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Falcons/Texans under (38) 1x (Locked)

The Texans will be relying on the run today with the rookie Yates going at qb. However, Atlanta is a top 5 defense against the run in advanced efficiency stats and in conventional stats. Therefore, we have two team strengths matching up today and I expect that matchup to give us an edge on the under. Don't be surprised if we see both teams decide to play a slow tempo game looking to control the clock and win with defense and special teams. Atlanta's passing offense is solid, but has not been as dangerous this year with an ineffective Roddy White. Regardless, Houston has one of the best defenses in the league and is basically top 5 against both the pass and rush in conventional and advanced stats. They should be able to limit Atlanta's attack at home. I expect a defensive struggle today. I have this one set at 36 and we're getting 2 points of value and covering the key numbers of 37 and 38. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Ravens/Browns under (38) 1x (Locked)

The Ravens offense home/away splits are polar opposites where they average over 30 points at home and more than 10 less on the Road. However, that Baltimore defense can keep them in any game. Here is another low total under that I am riding based on the premise that we see more running and defense than an air it out philosophy. We have the Browns with a dinged up McCoy and not much behind him other than a dinged up Peyton Hills. I'm just not confident in the Browns offense at all, but for them to win they are going to need to pound the rock. I expect the same from the Balty offense because Cleveland has a very strong pass defense ranked top 10 in the league in passing defense EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. I think we see a slower tempo game today by both teams. I have this one set at 36 and I'll take a shot on the under here with 2 points of value. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Packers/Giants over (53) 1x (Locked)

No time for an in-depth writeup as I have to watch the lines right now, but I will say that I just don't see the Giants injured secondary stopping Rodgers and that killer GB offensive attack. However, the Pack is susceptible on defense and with Bradshaw back that should create the play action vertical passing opportunities that are so critical to the Giants and Manning's success. I have this one set at the key number of 55 and I love getting this at 53 on the turf in nice weather with no wind. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Vikings (-1) 1x (Locked)

I am kicking myself for not locking in the Vikings at even money an hour ago, but I got greedy thinking that it would keep getting better as more Denver money came in. However, big steam hit the Vikings and I missed out. Nevertheless, week 2 of the Tebow fade is in full effect. I know Peterson isn't playing, but I don't think it matters as Von Miller is out for Denver which hurts that defense just as much. Von Miller has been a monster and a big reason that Denver has gone on this streak. On offense, I think Ponder is better than Tebow and I think the Vikings will finally wake up and force Tebow to beat them with his arm. Just pack the box and Tebow can't beat you. I am trusting Leslie Frazier to understand this simple concept. I have the Vikes set at -2, so not a ton of value here but this is all about my belief that Tebow cannot continue to lead this Denver to team to road wins game after game. They have to lose sometime and that time is today. I am rolling with the Vikes for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Jets/Redskins under (39) 1x (Locked)

I don't see this one going any higher, so I'm locking it up now. Bottom line is the Jets defense is still beloved by the advanced efficiency stats where they remain 5th in overall defensive EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%, while they are top 3 against the pass and top 10 against the run. I am not nor will ever be a believer in Grossman and I think Rex Ryan should be able to devise a blitz package to make that guy get happy feet. My concern is that the Jets force a few pick 6's or fumble recoveries for a touchdown. However, the Redskins defense is not at that top 5 level, but they are a top 11 defense overall and are very respectable against both the run and pass. I think that Redskins defense keeps them in the game and keeps this a low scoring game. I have this one set at 36.5, just below the key number of 37 so I have to take a shot on the low total under here. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #9

Lions/Saints over (54) 1x (Locked)

I was hoping to get 53, but it never materialized. I should have locked this one in earlier this week but I messed up thinking it would come back down. However, it started to steam at Pinny and I wanted to get it at 54 before they added the hook. Bottom line is that the Saints offense is killer at home and the Lions defense will be handicapped without the presence of Suh. The Saints will have trouble with Megatron on the turf and the Smith has been better than I expected at RB. With Stafford's finger healing, I think his accuracy improves indoors tonight. I have this one set at 56, which is why I wanted 53 so bad. If it goes back down, I might add to this one down the road. I am rolling with the over for 1x now and may add more later. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 13

Play #1

Eagles/Seahawks under (44) 1x (Locked) LOSS

Got the number I wanted. Without Vick, Maclin, Rice and an dinged up McCoy, I just dont see this one hiiting 45 tonight. I have this total set at 41 so I am rolling with the value and playing the under for 1x. I may also tease Seattle with the under as well. Good luck.

Play #2

Bengals/Steelers under (43) 1x (Locked)

I just don't know how long Dalton can continue playing this well against top defenses. AJ Green is a monster, but he will be facing the Steelers for the second time now and I expect them to have a better read on his tendencies. Rookie quarterbacks tend to fade in the last month of the season as they are not used to playing this many games and I expect this "rookie wall" to hit Dalton and today is as good as any for a start since he's playing a Steelers defense that has really found its stride. Both teams aired it out last game, but I expect a little different strategy in this December game with playoff implications. It's time for ball control and defense and that is what I expect today from two teams that have the ability to play top notch defense. Both defenses are highly rated in advanced efficiency numbers and I expect those defenses to have success today. I have this set at 40.5 so I will take the value and roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Bears (-7) 1x (Locked)

Whether Palko or Orton is playing -- I think Palko will start the 1h and Orton the 2nd -- the Bears defense will be ready for this one. This is one where the defensive players know they can pad their stats and I expect that to happen. The Bears are a top 8 defense in defensive DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%, while KC is bottom 1/3 of the league. On offense, I expect a huge improvement from Hanie at home. I think being in Chicago is key as he will have the home crowd firmly behind him. I expect either a defensive or special teams score from the Bears today, which will prove the difference in this spread. Both Forte and Barber should have a solid day running the ball, which will create the play action passing opportunities that will foster Hanie's success. Plus, with his mobility, don't be surprised to see Martz run some rare rollouts which are generally not used in his offense. I have the Bears set at -8.5 and I love the home town team today. I am rolling with the Bears for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Falcons/Texans under (38) 1x (Locked)

The Texans will be relying on the run today with the rookie Yates going at qb. However, Atlanta is a top 5 defense against the run in advanced efficiency stats and in conventional stats. Therefore, we have two team strengths matching up today and I expect that matchup to give us an edge on the under. Don't be surprised if we see both teams decide to play a slow tempo game looking to control the clock and win with defense and special teams. Atlanta's passing offense is solid, but has not been as dangerous this year with an ineffective Roddy White. Regardless, Houston has one of the best defenses in the league and is basically top 5 against both the pass and rush in conventional and advanced stats. They should be able to limit Atlanta's attack at home. I expect a defensive struggle today. I have this one set at 36 and we're getting 2 points of value and covering the key numbers of 37 and 38. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Ravens/Browns under (38) 1x (Locked)

The Ravens offense home/away splits are polar opposites where they average over 30 points at home and more than 10 less on the Road. However, that Baltimore defense can keep them in any game. Here is another low total under that I am riding based on the premise that we see more running and defense than an air it out philosophy. We have the Browns with a dinged up McCoy and not much behind him other than a dinged up Peyton Hills. I'm just not confident in the Browns offense at all, but for them to win they are going to need to pound the rock. I expect the same from the Balty offense because Cleveland has a very strong pass defense ranked top 10 in the league in passing defense EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. I think we see a slower tempo game today by both teams. I have this one set at 36 and I'll take a shot on the under here with 2 points of value. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Packers/Giants over (53) 1x (Locked)

No time for an in-depth writeup as I have to watch the lines right now, but I will say that I just don't see the Giants injured secondary stopping Rodgers and that killer GB offensive attack. However, the Pack is susceptible on defense and with Bradshaw back that should create the play action vertical passing opportunities that are so critical to the Giants and Manning's success. I have this one set at the key number of 55 and I love getting this at 53 on the turf in nice weather with no wind. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Vikings (-1) 1x (Locked)

I am kicking myself for not locking in the Vikings at even money an hour ago, but I got greedy thinking that it would keep getting better as more Denver money came in. However, big steam hit the Vikings and I missed out. Nevertheless, week 2 of the Tebow fade is in full effect. I know Peterson isn't playing, but I don't think it matters as Von Miller is out for Denver which hurts that defense just as much. Von Miller has been a monster and a big reason that Denver has gone on this streak. On offense, I think Ponder is better than Tebow and I think the Vikings will finally wake up and force Tebow to beat them with his arm. Just pack the box and Tebow can't beat you. I am trusting Leslie Frazier to understand this simple concept. I have the Vikes set at -2, so not a ton of value here but this is all about my belief that Tebow cannot continue to lead this Denver to team to road wins game after game. They have to lose sometime and that time is today. I am rolling with the Vikes for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Jets/Redskins under (39) 1x (Locked)

I don't see this one going any higher, so I'm locking it up now. Bottom line is the Jets defense is still beloved by the advanced efficiency stats where they remain 5th in overall defensive EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%, while they are top 3 against the pass and top 10 against the run. I am not nor will ever be a believer in Grossman and I think Rex Ryan should be able to devise a blitz package to make that guy get happy feet. My concern is that the Jets force a few pick 6's or fumble recoveries for a touchdown. However, the Redskins defense is not at that top 5 level, but they are a top 11 defense overall and are very respectable against both the run and pass. I think that Redskins defense keeps them in the game and keeps this a low scoring game. I have this one set at 36.5, just below the key number of 37 so I have to take a shot on the low total under here. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #9

Lions/Saints over (54) 1x (Locked)

I was hoping to get 53, but it never materialized. I should have locked this one in earlier this week but I messed up thinking it would come back down. However, it started to steam at Pinny and I wanted to get it at 54 before they added the hook. Bottom line is that the Saints offense is killer at home and the Lions defense will be handicapped without the presence of Suh. The Saints will have trouble with Megatron on the turf and the Smith has been better than I expected at RB. With Stafford's finger healing, I think his accuracy improves indoors tonight. I have this one set at 56, which is why I wanted 53 so bad. If it goes back down, I might add to this one down the road. I am rolling with the over for 1x now and may add more later. Good luck.

Play #10

Raiders/Dolphins over (43) 1x (Locked)

I've been waiting for a move on this line, but it's pretty much been at 43 with no movement today. I just think Miami's under streak ends today as Oakland comes to town with a bruising Michael Bush and a sharp Carson Palmer. However, that Oakland defense struggles against the run and I think the Dolphins rushing attack finds some success today. McClain should play, but I think perhaps he might not play as much. Regardless, I think Moore finds some success today through the air. I think we see a competitive game with both teams scoring 3 touchdowns or more. I have this one set at 45 with 2 points of value. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[GChild]

Boooooom let do this!!!!

[Pick'nParlays]

Bol lta

[Love The Action]

Goodluck with ur plays today

Card looks good bro! Best of luck, u deserve it!

Bol lta

Boooooom let do this!!!!

Same to you guys

[Trivial]

LTA. I missed all the early plays but i wish you and everyone success. Was out all morning. Everyone deserves these wins.

[hondo5]

Took about 5 minutes of the 2nd quarter to end the cinch under

[GChild]

I feel I'm always on the wrong side of these total plays!!!!

[SurveySaysIRock]

Tailing most of your plays once again LTA, let's get it!

Not sure how you feel about it but I'm really liking Pats -8 2nd half. Colts aren't going to do anything and I think the Pats won't let up on the scoring and cover it easily. BOL everyone!

[815Sox]

Best of luck guys. I am taking this sunday off, had to take the dog to the emergency vet last night (she is fine, she must have ate something in the yard that really upset her stomach) so I am still half asleep. Best of luck.

[Love The Action]

Best of luck guys. I am taking this sunday off, had to take the dog to the emergency vet last night (she is fine, she must have ate something in the yard that really upset her stomach) so I am still half asleep. Best of luck.

Oh man...I know how that is....take care. I hope all is well. GL

[Love The Action]

I feel I'm always on the wrong side of these total plays!!!!

I've never seen a 0 point first quarter and a 35 point second quarter like in the Bengals/Steelers game. I wonder how many times that has happened in history? It has to be extremely rare.

I'm not giving up on the Jets/Skins total. All we need is one zero or 3 point quarter and we got a shot.

Falcons/Texans have 13 points at half.

Dolphins score early 3rd to give us a shot if Oakland wakes the fuk up.

Vikes winning over the Broncos right now.

The biggest bullshit was the hail mary touchdown in the Bears game. WTF!!!!

I still think we can cash that one though. Palko is due for a pick 6...maybe Tillman will do it for us. Hanie needs to get his shit together and start hitting the wide open man. His accuracy has been horseshit.

[Love The Action]

Tailing most of your plays once again LTA, let's get it!

Not sure how you feel about it but I'm really liking Pats -8 2nd half. Colts aren't going to do anything and I think the Pats won't let up on the scoring and cover it easily. BOL everyone!

I think that's a great call. I'm not a big 2h playing guy, but I think this will cash.

[Love The Action]

Wow...I actually thought Hanie could be a serviceable back up quarterback in the NFL. Now I have realized this dipshit doesn't even know how to throw it away instead of getting chased out of bounds 10 yards behind the line of scrimmage. Between his inaccuracy and poor decision making, it is clear this guy sucks and the acquisition of a veteran backup for Cutler will be a priority this offseason.

We're going to need a miracle to cover this Bears game because of Hanies poor play and that bullshit hail mary touchdown by the Chiefs. Still can't believe that one...

[815Sox]

Wow...I actually thought Hanie could be a serviceable back up quarterback in the NFL. Now I have realized this dipshit doesn't even know how to throw it away instead of getting chased out of bounds 10 yards behind the line of scrimmage. Between his inaccuracy and poor decision making, it is clear this guy sucks and the acquisition of a veteran backup for Cutler will be a priority this offseason.

We're going to need a miracle to cover this Bears game because of Hanies poor play and that bullshit hail mary touchdown by the Chiefs. Still can't believe that one...

I just don't know what the Bears are gonna do, no Cutler and we very well may lose Forte for some time. This team has always been paper thin when it comes to depth, and its coming back to bite them hard. No way they get lucky with injuries two years in a row. Last year was a miracle.

[Love The Action]

Roy Williams is a true piece of shit. He is such a scared little bitch going over the middle. Hanie doesn't deserve criticism for that one. That was all Williams' fault. Williams should be cut. He is worthless.

[GChild]

Roy Williams is a true piece of shit. He is such a scared little bitch going over the middle. Hanie doesn't deserve criticism for that one. That was all Williams' fault. Williams should be cut. He is worthless.

Being from Chicago he is a piece of garbage!

[Overbettor]

Im going to ask tebow what his picks are for next week because hes the luckiest son a bitch alive right now

[GChild]

Im going to ask tebow what his picks are for next week because hes the luckiest son a bitch alive right now

Unreal this guy

[815Sox]

Roy Williams is a true piece of shit. He is such a scared little bitch going over the middle. Hanie doesn't deserve criticism for that one. That was all Williams' fault. Williams should be cut. He is worthless.

Another Angelo mistake. If the Bears really want to compete they have to get rid of him, but no way it happens until his contract is up. The McCaskeys are so cheap. Martz is a major problem and I am not a big fan of Lovie either.

Being from Chicago he is a piece of garbage!

Hey now... we aren't all that bad. Pretty sure LTA is from the Chicago area too..

[GChild]

Wow we just got tebowed

[P25]

And Rex does it AGAIN. Seems to do something - good or bad - to screw me over on totals at the end of every week lately!

[Love The Action]

Another Angelo mistake. If the Bears really want to compete they have to get rid of him, but no way it happens until his contract is up. The McCaskeys are so cheap. Martz is a major problem and I am not a big fan of Lovie either.

Agree 100%

Hey now... we aren't all that bad. Pretty sure LTA is from the Chicago area too..

I don't think he was talking about Chi-town

I hope not

[Love The Action]

And Rex does it AGAIN. Seems to do something - good or bad - to screw me over on totals at the end of every week lately!

Back to back weeks, Rex Grossman alone has cost us 2x. Last week, he plays out of his mind to screw our under and this week he fumbles on his own 1 fuking yard line to screw today's under. God I hate him.