LTA's NFL PLays

[GChild]

Wow I'm done playing unders

[GChild]

Wow I'm done playing unders

Wow stop them

[Pick'nParlays]

Play #7

Patriots/Eagles over (51) 1x (Locked)

I like the line movement on this play as the overall amount of wagers actually favors the under slightly but the number has risen all morning. I expect Vince Young to do a great job managing the offense after shaking off the rust last week against a better defensive than he will face this week. I think we see McCoy have one of his biggest games of the year today. On the other side, I expect the Pats to be the Pats and hit their average for me and get between 24 and 35 points. I have this one set at 52, but I like the over in this spot for both teams. This should end up being a track meet and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

50.5 now. Still like the movement LTA?

[doogtonmai]

If I would bet on of these plays, I just know it will be U 19.5

Ugh, missed it by a hook...double whammy! Amazing how close Vegas can be to the line.

[bleedtoledo]

Only moved a half point = no big deal.

[Pick'nParlays]

Got to like that start. What a bomb by VY

[Pelt]

LTA I really like Steelers over 41. For the reasons below. Like your take if you have time.
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Pittsburgh's last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Pittsburgh is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City

[Love The Action]

LTA I really like Steelers over 41. For the reasons below. Like your take if you have time.
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Pittsburgh's last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Pittsburgh is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City

I would recommend to throw these types of things out of your capping or at least minimize how much importance you give to them. If you base your plays solely on this type of information, you will lose long term. Nothing about those past results has anything to do with tonight's matchup of these two particular teams. I am not a fan of these types of trends.

I will have no play in tonight's game. I can't find an edge. I have the Steelers set at -10 and the total at 40. Therefore, I don't see much value and will be laying off. Good luck on whatever you choose.

[Love The Action]

Man, I sure hope the Eagles can score to push this one over....

[Overbettor]

The Eagles are going to put one in the endzone here. Lots of time left for the garbage touchdown.

[brucethebear]

More concerned about the seahawks under now :/

[Love The Action]

How the fuk does Seattle alllow Rex Grossman of all people to throw a 59 yard bomb for a TD on 3rd and 19!?!

[cohbull]

still have a miniscule chance in seattle thanks to that blocked PAT!

[Donnie Brasco]

San diego blows donkeys.

[Dexter]

I would recommend to throw these types of things out of your capping or at least minimize how much importance you give to them. If you base your plays solely on this type of information, you will lose long term. Nothing about those past results has anything to do with tonight's matchup of these two particular teams. I am not a fan of these types of trends.

[Love The Action]

What a brutal fuking way to lose that Seattle under. 17 points scored in the first 3 quarters and 23 points in the 4th quarter after Seattle decides to go for it on 4th and 10 from their own 20 yard line. At that point, go ahead and punt and use your timeouts.

Then you get beat by Tebow. Apparently, it's impossible to properly gameplan against and stop a quarterback that cannot throw.

Unfukingbelievable....I am so fuking fed up with this lame ass NFL bullshit

[GChild]

Wow that saved the evening

[BigDan]

im so happy college hoops is in full swing, hardly played any nfl today, they can have this watered down flag fb bs , actin like they the NFL so we have to watch regardless of the product on the field, well go fukk yourselves nfl i dont have to watch shit...NBA be back in no time brother..

[alamo]

Eagles with a Garbage time TD guys to take us over with a couple of secs left

[Love The Action]

Thought Matthews was going to break it...killer tackle by Dawkins.

This game shouldn't have been close. SD missed two easy field goals.

[peterrr]

Yeah, going on 4th down in their own 20 just pissed me off -_- im sticking to ncaaf lol

[alamo]

What you boys thinking for the late game. I think Pitt should win this.

[GChild]

Pitt don't cover big spreads on the road!

[suicidekings]

What a brutal fuking way to lose that Seattle under. 17 points scored in the first 3 quarters and 23 points in the 4th quarter after Seattle decides to go for it on 4th and 10 from their own 20 yard line. At that point, go ahead and punt and use your timeouts.

Then you get beat by Tebow. Apparently, it's impossible to properly gameplan against and stop a quarterback that cannot throw.

Unfukingbelievable....I am so fuking fed up with this lame ass NFL bullshit

Cheer up buddy Only 28 more days until Christmas!!!

[Love The Action]

Cheer up buddy Only 28 more days until Christmas!!!

[suicidekings]

What you boys thinking for the late game. I think Pitt should win this.

It's a cold night in Kansas City. I lean Under but the lines are sharp. Not worth more than a half unit on whatever you choose.

[Love The Action]

What you boys thinking for the late game. I think Pitt should win this.

Hell yeah they should win! They are double digit favorites. Whether they cover the spread is a different story. Gun to my head, I would take the Steelers. However, I think this one is a better pass as the lines are razor sharp tonight with no value on the side or total. I will have a play for tomorrow night.

If you are looking for action, maybe a Steelers/under tease might be fun.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 12 Recap (not including MNF)

7 - 4 = +2.6x

Could have very easily been 9-2. Still waiting for that huge week where everything comes together. We still have a chance to make this a really big week with MNF. I will have a play on the total tomorrow.

NFL 2011-2012 Season

63 - 60 = -1.9x

We finally made it into the black in NCAAF and I will end up in the black in the NFL pretty soon. Just a matter of time. We have plenty of time left to have a nicely profitable season. Just gotta keep grinding.

[brucethebear]

However, I think this one is a better pass as the lines are razor sharp tonight with no value on the side or total. I will have a play for tomorrow night.

That's what I wanted to hear. Will just enjoy tomight and wait for tomorrow

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 12

Play #1

Packers/Lions under (56) 1x (Locked) WINNER

I know this might not be a popular pick here on SBR. I've seen a lot of the better posters riding the over and a lot of guys saying the under is a sucker bet and they are the books are trying to bait people into taking the under here. However, the only way this one flies over a posted total of 56 (and I would not take this at any less than 55) is if we get some unusual special teams' td's, fumble return td's or pick 6's. I know no one wants to root for an under on Thanksgiving, especially in a Packers game. However, I'm going to do just that. First, the Lions have solid home field advantage here. Ford Field will be packed and rocking. The Packers, as great as they are, are also a bit undisciplined when it comes to stupid penalties such as false starts and the like, although, they have improved dramatically in this category from last year to this year. Nevertheless, I just see that Detroit defense stepping up enough to limit the Packers offense just enough to keep this one under. As I mentioned in another thread, the Lions defense is top 5 overall and top 3 in the pass in Def DVOA, EVA, EVA/P, WPA and SR%. That is very solid and the Lions boast one of the top defensive lines in the league. That defensive line will be looking to hit Rodgers wherever possible and barring some BS unnecessary roughness penalties, should have a solid game against Rodgers today. On the other side, it will be difficult for GB to stop Megatron, but other than that particular weapon, I like the matchups between the GB running defense and the Detroit rushing offense and between the GB defensive backfield and the rest of the Detroit receivers. Kevin Smith is not the real deal after just joining the team and having a good game against TB. I don't see him racking up over 130 yards today like last week. A total of 56 is very high for the NFL and some would say that means the books are leaning to the over. I suppose that's possible, but with this being Thanksgiving the books knew they were going to get a lot of action on the over thereby providing too much value on the under to pass up. I have this one set at 52 and we are getting 4 points of value here. For me, that is just too much to pass up. Over the last couple days, we have seen Pinny juicing the under big time at 55.5 while square books like Bodog were heavy on the over at 56.5. This morning, I saw Pinny drop to 55 with juice on the under despite 75% of all bets at that book on the over. I suppose it's possible that Pinny is trying to "sucker" in under money, but I think the better explanation is that sharp money bough up all the 55.5 action and forced Pinny down to 55. If we see this one go below 55, that is confirmation to me that the under is definitely the play here. I suppose some of you will disagree and that's ok, but I love the value on the under at 56 which eclipses the top 23 key totals numbers in the NFL. If this one is going to go over, it will required flawless offensive play along with some turnovers, short fields and special teams scoring. I don't think we see that today and I am going to roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Dolphins/Cowboys under (46) 1x (Locked) WINNER

I am going to play with fire and fade the line movement in this game. I just don't see this one going over 46 points. As I stated in my notes above, I don't think Matt Moore will fare well against a dangerous Dallas defensive line playing behind the boisterous home crowd. I do worry that Dallas will be able to pass on the Miami secondary and that is my biggest concern. However, Miami has a top 10 defense against the run in DVOA, EPA, EPA/P and WPA advanced efficiency stats and I expect them to play well against the Cowboys rushing attack. By making Dallas one dimensional, you put more pressure on Romo and that is how I expect Miami to approach this game. I don't expect that Miami will be able to stop Dallas, but I think they can slow them down and limit the big plays. On the other side, I think this is a great game for Rob Ryan and Dallas' defense to shine. I think we see a game where Dallas dominates Miami on the defensive side of the ball and limits Moore's play making ability. I don't expect Miami's rushing offense to have a good game against Dallas and I don't believe in Moore in this spot going against such a fast defense like the Cowboys. With Miles Austin missing, I think Miami can hold Dallas to 27 points or less and I don't see Miami scoring more than 17. I have this game set at 43 and expect a 24-17 type of game. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

49'ers/Ravens under (41)(-120) 1x (Locked) WINNER

I have to leave for Thanksgiving dinner and I'm going to buy the hook in this rare instance as the line movement at Pinny appears to indicate that the total has topped out at 40.5 and 41 is the most important key number in NFL totals. Pinny is currently juicing the under at -109 and if the under money continues a drop back down to 40 cannot be that far behind. It is true that we have seen true steam on the over as the total went from 38.5 to 40 at multiple books (including Pinny) all at the same time around 7:31 pm last night. That is true steam and would indicate the over is the play. However, I'm not convinced. Both teams are remarkably similar in offensive and defensive advanced stats. Both teams are top 5 defensively against both the rush and the pass in DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. I have not seen such a defensive matchup all year to date that featured two top 5 ranked defenses in advanced stats and that is one of the reasons I expect great defensive play. On offense, both teams are middle of the pack in those same advanced efficiency stats. However, Baltimore's offense is night and day when it comes to away/home scores and really piles on the points at home where they average over 30. Therefore, that could be the cause of the steam and is a definite concern. In addition, SF has a much improved offense, especially with Smith playing well. Nevertheless, I love covering the key number of 41 in this spot as I have this one set at 38, thereby giving us a full FG of value here. I am going to buy the hook to cover 41 and roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Redskins/Seahawks under (38) 1x (Locked) LOSS

I just don't see this one getting above the 38 I currently get, so I am locking it in now. You have two solid defenses going against two weak offenses. Both Seattle and Washington are ranked in the top 12 of the league in overall defensive EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR% and both dominate against the run where they rank top 8 in those same categories (Seattle top 3). Offensively, however, is a different story where each team ranks bottom 5 offensively. I am not particularly impressed by either field goal kicker on these teams and I expect a defensive struggle. I have this one set at 35.5 and we're getting almost a field goal of value, so I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Browns/Bengals under (38) 1x (Locked) LOSS

Here's one that makes sense according to the "numbers," but could end up going over because of young athletic playmakers. I have this one set at 35.5 just like Play #4, so I am going to pull the trigger on the 2.5 points of value. However, both plays concern me. In this game, I worry that AJ Green will be in the lineup but I recognize that the Browns have a solid young cornerback in Haden to matchup against Green and I'm hoping the injury will slow the Dalton-to-Green gravy train. Plus, the strength of the Cleveland defense is stopping the pass where they rank a surprising 7th in Def Pass EPA and EPA/P, while 2nd overall against the pass in Def Pass WPA. Perhaps that high ranking is because teams are running all over them as they are ranked in the bottom 10 of advanced efficiency stats in stopping the run. Nevertheless, I will gladly give up some long methodical drives all day as long as they end in field goals. That is exactly what I expect as both teams like to extend their offensive possessions and rank 10th and 12th in time of possession. This one is a local rivalry and I expect a more smashmouth game than finesse. As long as we don't see special teams td returns or turnovers returned for td's, I think this one should be in the 20-14 range. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Teaser

Bears (+9)/Redskins (+9) 1x (-110) (Locked) WINNER

No time for real writeups but these teams are two dogs that I think are most likely to play well well and keep it within a td and maybe even win. I missed out on the early value, so I am going to take a shot and tease them across the key numbers of 3, 4, 5 and 7 while pushing on 9. I don't see either game ending with more than a 9 point margin of victory regardless of who wins, so I'm going to roll with the tease for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Patriots/Eagles over (51) 1x (Locked) WINNER

I like the line movement on this play as the overall amount of wagers actually favors the under slightly but the number has risen all morning. I expect Vince Young to do a great job managing the offense after shaking off the rust last week against a better defensive than he will face this week. I think we see McCoy have one of his biggest games of the year today. On the other side, I expect the Pats to be the Pats and hit their average for me and get between 24 and 35 points. I have this one set at 52, but I like the over in this spot for both teams. This should end up being a track meet and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Bills/Jets over (42) 1x (Locked) WINNER

Been waiting all week to see where this would bottom out after the Fred Jackson injury and it appears 41.5 is that number because somebody just hit it big and caused some huge steam. I was able to lock it in at 42 and I will take it as the steam has some outlets as high as 43. I think we see Sanchez break out of his slump and exploit this weak Bills defense, while the Bills finally get some offense today by scoring at least 14 - 17 on the Jets after getting blown out in recent weeks. I see this one being a 28-17 type of game with each team scoring a few more or less, but this one coming in around the 44 where I have this set. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #9

Vikings/Falcons under (44) 1x (Locked) WINNER

No time for a writeup as I'm watching the lines, but I expect some steam on the under in this game as the Vikings should not be able to score on Atlanta with no Peterson and Ponder behind center in Atlanta. Atlanta will run the ball, play ball control offense and grind out a convincing win. However, don't be surprised if Jared Allen and the Minny front four has a good game today in pressuring Ryan and keeping Atlanta's passing offense grounded. I think we see a conservative game plan for both teams and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #10

Chargers (-5) 1x (Locked) LOSS

I was looking for -5 and I got it. I just don't trust Tebow. He seems like a really "good guy" and all that, but he can't throw the ball at a level necessary to succeed consistently in the NFL. Tebow has now covered 3 games ATS and I don't think that streak can continue. I have this game set at SD -6.5, so I will take the value, fade Tebow and roll with the Chargers for 1x. Good luck.

Play #11

Rams (-2) 1x (Locked) LOSS

Kolb has been ruled out again and I will fade Skelton in this horrible situational spot for the Cardinals who are playing their 3rd road game in a row and 4th in 5 games. That is historically one of the worst situational spots in the NFL and when you add that to the revenge spot for the Rams here at home, I think the Rams are actually a great play. They have lost a couple games since beating the Saints and are getting great value in this home game. I have them set at -3.5 and we're getting them at -2 which gives us a push on the key number of 2 and win at 3 or more. I think the Rams should have a lot of success today on defense against Skelton as Long should make this long day for the Cardinals QB. On defense, Arizona will have hard time stopping Jackson on the ground. Larry Fitzgerald can be neutralized if the guy throwing to him is hurried and I expect the Rams to employ plenty of blitz pressure. I am rolling with the Rams for 1x. Good luck.

Play #12

Giants/Saints over (51) 1x (Locked)

I expect a high scoring game this Monday night. We have a New Orleans offense that dominates whether passing or running the ball. NO is ranked top 3 in offensive rushing and passing EPA, EPA/P, WPA, SR% and DVOA. On the other side, the Giants boast a very weak rushing attack, especially without Bradshaw, but they do have a top 10 passing attack in the same advanced statistical categories referenced above. After last week's debacle by the Giants offense against the Eagles, I expect them to bounce back strong on Monday and play well against NO. I think Manning has a really good game as he will be motivated to play well against another top QB in Brees. Neither defense is spectacular as both are ranked in the mid to bottom of the advanced efficiency rankings and I think we see a track meet on the New Orleans home turf. I have this one set at 53 and we are getting 2 points of value here so I am rolling with the over for 1x but may add to this play before game time. Good luck.

[Dexter]

the pats are a 21 pt favorite next week. i guess the packers would have been 24.

never seen an nfl line that high.

[doogtonmai]

Thought Matthews was going to break it...killer tackle by Dawkins.

This game shouldn't have been close. SD missed two easy field goals.

SD +2 cost me 1.125k on a 14-1 $15 teaser.

[Love The Action]

SD +2 cost me 1k on a 14-1 $15 teaser.

Vikings ML big next week

[Love The Action]

the pats are a 21 pt favorite next week. i guess the packers would have been 24.

never seen an nfl line that high.

That's definitely like a NCAAF number. However, in this case, I think it's warranted. How else are you going to get on money on Indy other than adding 5 or 6 points of value. I think that number will drop a bit, then get back up around 22 and then back down and close right around that 21 opener.

What do you think...all in on the Colts?

[GChild]

Nice call on the tease under and pitt