Capy's 2011 NFL Thread (149-118 Every-Game-ATS in 2010 SBR Thread)

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  • shocktopme
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 10-15-10
    • 940

    #211
    .

    Atlanta ruining my 4 gamer!!!!!!What you like for later bud?
    Comment
    • Capybara
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 08-17-08
      • 11803

      #212
      By the way, is anything more frustrating than not getting your play in? The problem with watching games on delay (which I always end up doing because I'm doing too much at once) is that it fukks you up for 2H bets. Was ready to drop several units on Pats 2H and the fukkin third quarter had started! I suck.

      Pissed now. I am gonna cap the fukk out of these 4:00s.
      Comment
      • Capybara
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 08-17-08
        • 11803

        #213
        Originally posted by shocktopme
        Atlanta ruining my 4 gamer!!!!!!What you like for later bud?
        Posted earlier that my fave play is Baltimore, I got them at -6.5 on Bookmaker. Square play but can't see Cleveland playing four quarters with them.
        Comment
        • shocktopme
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 10-15-10
          • 940

          #214
          .

          hurry bud!!!
          Comment
          • Capybara
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 08-17-08
            • 11803

            #215
            No plays other than the Baltimore -6.5 posted earlier, but for picks I'm rolling with:

            NY Giants +8
            Dallas -4
            San Fran -14
            Comment
            • Capybara
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 08-17-08
              • 11803

              #216
              Originally posted by shocktopme
              hurry bud!!!
              Haha, sorry bud, I am Mr. Procrastinate as you know... I posted the Balt play hours ago and that's all I like for the 4:00s anyway, so you already saw that. Gonna try to hit a 2H for sure though to make up for the earlier Cincy bust.
              Comment
              • Capybara
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 08-17-08
                • 11803

                #217
                So 8-5 ATS so far today... 1-2 in plays... but... I hit the only one I really needed w Baltimore! -- the large-unit play that was also attached to the three-teamer!

                For tonight, not gonna make a play unless I do live or 2H betting, but the pick is:

                New Orleans -8.5

                because you simply can't pick against them at home, with how healthy they are and the ridiculous level that Brees is playing at. Plus Lions getting a bit banged up and no Suh either. Holding off on a play because I could see the Lions coming out the more focused and intense team in this one. And I like the over like everyone does, but it's so high now that it scares me off.
                Comment
                • Capybara
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 08-17-08
                  • 11803

                  #218
                  Lookin' for the 10-win weekend ATS... Can we do it? The pick is:

                  San Diego -3

                  That's an official play as well.

                  San Diego is bad, but are they Jaguars bad? No. In fact, with Matthews and Gates both back and healthy and even Floyd now too, this offense gets very dangerous, especially against a team missing most of its DBs. And even though the Chargers' D may have some trouble with MJD, if they can contain him even a little, can Gabbert stay with Rivers? Unlikely.

                  I have a hard time seeing this not going over 39 too, but momentarily holding off on the over play.
                  Comment
                  • Capybara
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 08-17-08
                    • 11803

                    #219
                    Okay, adding a small play on the Over 39 to the larger SD play. Let's make some money tonight!
                    Comment
                    • Capybara
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 08-17-08
                      • 11803

                      #220
                      Cash 'em!!

                      Nothing like a nice and easy 2-0 night!

                      So the thread finishes Week 13 at 10-6 in the every-game-ATS portion and 3-2 in best-bet plays. Actually finished well in the black due to hitting my two biggest plays in Baltimore and SD... Since that sounds lame without me having posted any units, I think starting next weekend I'll post actual juice and units again. Maybe too little too late, but at least it'll be accurate from here through the Super Bowl!

                      Season tallies:

                      Every-Game-ATS: 96-89-7
                      Best-Bet Plays: 40-39-3 (16-7-1 last three weeks!)

                      Capy out!
                      Comment
                      • EvilBettor
                        SBR High Roller
                        • 01-07-11
                        • 159

                        #221
                        Originally posted by Capybara
                        Cash 'em!!

                        Nothing like a nice and easy 2-0 night!

                        So the thread finishes Week 13 at 10-6 in the every-game-ATS portion and 3-2 in best-bet plays. Actually finished well in the black due to hitting my two biggest plays in Baltimore and SD... Since that sounds lame without me having posted any units, I think starting next weekend I'll post actual juice and units again. Maybe too little too late, but at least it'll be accurate from here through the Super Bowl!

                        Season tallies:

                        Every-Game-ATS: 96-89-7
                        Best-Bet Plays: 40-39-3 (16-7-1 last three weeks!)

                        Capy out!
                        Getting Hot Capy! Keep it up! Any leans for Thurs or Sun. games? TIA
                        Comment
                        • Capybara
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 08-17-08
                          • 11803

                          #222
                          Originally posted by EvilBettor
                          Getting Hot Capy! Keep it up! Any leans for Thurs or Sun. games? TIA
                          Thanks, Bud!

                          Yeah, for leans I'm liking Raiders +12, and the SD/Buf Over 46.5. It's an interesting board.
                          Comment
                          • Capybara
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 08-17-08
                            • 11803

                            #223
                            While I'm always afraid about the trap in these one-sided games, there's simply no way you can reasonably back the Browns right now against the Steelers. Not only are the Steelers clicking, but they're pretty f'n healthy too for Week 14. Browns are just a total mess. I guess they could pick it up for this one, but I can't see it on paper, so it's:

                            Pittsburgh -13.5
                            Comment
                            • JR007
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 02-21-10
                              • 5279

                              #224
                              solid record
                              Comment
                              • Capybara
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 08-17-08
                                • 11803

                                #225
                                Originally posted by Capybara
                                Thanks, Bud!

                                Yeah, for leans I'm liking Raiders +12, and the SD/Buf Over 46.5. It's an interesting board.
                                Locked in the two leans I mentioned earlier in the week.

                                The only 1:00 play (barring last-second action) is:

                                Pats/Skins Under 47.5

                                All placed at Bookmaker, all -110.
                                Comment
                                • shocktopme
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 10-15-10
                                  • 940

                                  #226
                                  .

                                  Go get em bud!!!!Hey dont take your cell phone to the theatre to make bets!!!!!
                                  Comment
                                  • Capybara
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 08-17-08
                                    • 11803

                                    #227
                                    Had a crazy week and ended up spending as little time as I have all season on capping NFL...

                                    Having said that, watch me have my best week.

                                    Every-Game-ATS 1:00 picks:

                                    Baltimore -16.5
                                    Cincinnati -1
                                    NY Jets -10
                                    Detroit -10
                                    New England -7
                                    Tennessee +3.5
                                    Carolina +3
                                    Philadelphia +3
                                    Tampa Bay -2.5
                                    Comment
                                    • Capybara
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 08-17-08
                                      • 11803

                                      #228
                                      Edit:

                                      Put that wrong, Miami -3 was my pick. (Nothing happened yet, Philly with the ball I believe.)
                                      Comment
                                      • Capybara
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 08-17-08
                                        • 11803

                                        #229
                                        Well, couldn't have capped the Pats/Skins O/U any more wrong...

                                        Playing:

                                        2H Baltimore -7
                                        Comment
                                        • Capybara
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 08-17-08
                                          • 11803

                                          #230
                                          Playing:

                                          San Francisco -3

                                          SF/AZ Under 39.5
                                          Comment
                                          • Capybara
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 08-17-08
                                            • 11803

                                            #231
                                            Denver -3

                                            Den/Chi Under 36
                                            Comment
                                            • Capybara
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 08-17-08
                                              • 11803

                                              #232
                                              San Diego -7
                                              Comment
                                              • Capybara
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 08-17-08
                                                • 11803

                                                #233
                                                Honestly I can't really figure out which way to go tonight. But I want the action, so I'm gonna take the road 'dog in a big division game.

                                                NY Giants +5

                                                And now that the O/U dipped below 50, I'm grabbing the over.

                                                NYG/Dal Over 49

                                                Could completely alter both of these via live betting, we'll see.
                                                Comment
                                                • Capybara
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 08-17-08
                                                  • 11803

                                                  #234
                                                  Another ordinary week, but I did go 4-0-1 with the above last four plays yesterday, so perhaps I can carry that momentum into tonight.

                                                  Playing:

                                                  STL/Sea Over 38

                                                  Was thinking under all day, but have done a 180 and now I am actually liking this over, maybe I'm nuts.

                                                  Not playing it, but my pick is

                                                  Seattle -9

                                                  In the mood for live betting or 2H, so we'll see how this game reveals itself. Good luck.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Capybara
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 08-17-08
                                                    • 11803

                                                    #235
                                                    Damn, over looking shaky.

                                                    Going for:

                                                    2H Seattle -3 (+110, am I getting duped? )
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Capybara
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 08-17-08
                                                      • 11803

                                                      #236
                                                      Originally posted by Capybara

                                                      Playing:

                                                      STL/Sea Over 38

                                                      Not playing it, but my pick is

                                                      Seattle -9
                                                      Originally posted by Capybara

                                                      Going for:

                                                      2H Seattle -3 (+110, am I getting duped? )
                                                      YEEESSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!! Cash 'em both!!!!
                                                      Comment
                                                      • EvilBettor
                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                        • 01-07-11
                                                        • 159

                                                        #237
                                                        Originally posted by Capybara
                                                        YEEESSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!! Cash 'em both!!!!
                                                        Congrats again! I saw your SEA -3 2H in-game comment. I had SEA -3 2H and u17.5 I can't believe they scored 30 pts in the 2H! That's the NFL for you.

                                                        Who do you like this Thurs. and Sat.? I like Atlanta at home. But, not liking -11. But, I have a feeling this line is going up to -12 or -13 by game time. Hmm... Might tease this one down. I'm also really liking Dallas -6.5. What do you think?
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Capybara
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 08-17-08
                                                          • 11803

                                                          #238
                                                          Originally posted by EvilBettor
                                                          Congrats again! I saw your SEA -3 2H in-game comment. I had SEA -3 2H and u17.5 I can't believe they scored 30 pts in the 2H! That's the NFL for you.

                                                          Who do you like this Thurs. and Sat.? I like Atlanta at home. But, not liking -11. But, I have a feeling this line is going up to -12 or -13 by game time. Hmm... Might tease this one down. I'm also really liking Dallas -6.5. What do you think?
                                                          Hey Evil, sorry I never got back to ya, Bro. Busy week as usual! You were sure right about the Atlanta line heading up and up!

                                                          So first, the bookkeeping. Last week sucked as far as overall ATS, at 4-10-2 (wow), but cleaned up nicely with the actual selected plays, which went 7-5-1. Sorry that I again didn't record units clearly or anything, so feel free to ignore me when I say it, but the San Diego and Seattle 2H plays were big scores for the Capster!

                                                          Season totals:
                                                          Every Game ATS: 100-99-9
                                                          Best-Bet Plays: 47-44-4 (last 7 = 6-0-1!)

                                                          On to tonight:
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Capybara
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 08-17-08
                                                            • 11803

                                                            #239
                                                            As for the spread tonight, been going back and forth, so it's not a play. However, since Atlanta is just NOT typically a big cover type of team, and since Jax have shown signs of life of late, I guess the pick will be

                                                            Jacksonville +14

                                                            Although could have easily gone the other way, since I can't figure out how Jax will score more than 13 or 14. Which leads me to two plays:

                                                            Jax/Atl 1H under 21.5 2x

                                                            Jax/Atl under 41.5 1x

                                                            As I said, Atlanta rarely blows teams out, plus the Jax D is slightly underrated and the team is now playing with a bit of fire. Both teams want to grind it out. Also, Turner may be hitting the wall now, leading to more 3rd and longs and more punts for Atl. We'll see.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • shocktopme
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 10-15-10
                                                              • 940

                                                              #240
                                                              .

                                                              Wow....See Im thinking Falcons cover the 11 points.....Gabbert prolly throws 2 to 3 picks tonight....I dunno damn Thurs. night football games are made for the fifth dimension!!!
                                                              Comment
                                                              • EvilBettor
                                                                SBR High Roller
                                                                • 01-07-11
                                                                • 159

                                                                #241
                                                                Originally posted by Capybara
                                                                Hey Evil, sorry I never got back to ya, Bro. Busy week as usual! You were sure right about the Atlanta line heading up and up!

                                                                So first, the bookkeeping. Last week sucked as far as overall ATS, at 4-10-2 (wow), but cleaned up nicely with the actual selected plays, which went 7-5-1. Sorry that I again didn't record units clearly or anything, so feel free to ignore me when I say it, but the San Diego and Seattle 2H plays were big scores for the Capster!

                                                                Season totals:
                                                                Every Game ATS: 100-99-9
                                                                Best-Bet Plays: 47-44-4 (last 7 = 6-0-1!)

                                                                On to tonight:
                                                                No problem. We are all busy. Tough losses tonight. I guess I didn't need ATL teased after all. Regardless, I won my teaser ATL/over. Do you like Dallas -6.5? I am liking DAL -6.5 a lot as long as Dallas can finish!
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Capybara
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 08-17-08
                                                                  • 11803

                                                                  #242
                                                                  Originally posted by EvilBettor
                                                                  No problem. We are all busy. Tough losses tonight. I guess I didn't need ATL teased after all. Regardless, I won my teaser ATL/over. Do you like Dallas -6.5? I am liking DAL -6.5 a lot as long as Dallas can finish!
                                                                  Hey Man, nice work! You too, Shocker!

                                                                  I haven't looked super closely at the Dal game, but yeah, it's hard not to see them taking care of business big-time this week... so definitely lean Dallas -6.5. Should prob jump on it before all the books have 'em at 7 actually.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Capybara
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 08-17-08
                                                                    • 11803

                                                                    #243
                                                                    Not gonna overthink tonight. Of course Tampa could suddenly right the ship and play a spirited game, but I can't find a good reason to back them. So it's Dallas.

                                                                    Dallas -7

                                                                    Think I may tease Dallas and the over as well. But don't track teasers in here.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Capybara
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 08-17-08
                                                                      • 11803

                                                                      #244
                                                                      Playing these two for multiple units. Let's get it!

                                                                      Balt/SD over 44

                                                                      New England -7
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Capybara
                                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                                        • 08-17-08
                                                                        • 11803

                                                                        #245
                                                                        Also gonna play:

                                                                        Tennessee -6.5
                                                                        Comment
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