Capy's 2011 NFL Thread (149-118 Every-Game-ATS in 2010 SBR Thread)

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  • shocktopme
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 10-15-10
    • 940

    #246
    .

    BOL today pal!!!!!!Lets kill em!!
    Comment
    • Capybara
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 08-17-08
      • 11803

      #247
      All the 1:00 every-game-ATS picks:

      Cincinnati -7
      Washington +7
      Tennessee -6.5
      Buffalo PK
      Green Bay -10.5
      New Orleans -7
      Chicago -3.5
      Carolina +5.5
      Comment
      • Capybara
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 08-17-08
        • 11803

        #248
        Three single-unit 2H plays:

        New Orleans -3 (-105)

        Tennessee -3.5 (EV)

        NY Giants -7 (+110)
        Comment
        • cmdyrds
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 08-20-09
          • 522

          #249
          good luck. stumbled onto this thread and i played the same ones too.
          Comment
          • Capybara
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 08-17-08
            • 11803

            #250
            Late every-game-ATS picks:

            Detroit -1
            Philadelphia -3
            New England -7
            AZ/Cleve pending...

            Additional play:

            Detroit -1
            (New England -7 indicated earlier)
            Comment
            • Capybara
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 08-17-08
              • 11803

              #251
              Playing:

              Arizona -6

              Also teased New England and Arizona.

              Let's make some money!!
              Comment
              • Capybara
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 08-17-08
                • 11803

                #252
                VERY psyched right now... the PATS came through for me with one of my two big plays for the week, and, right when I thought they were toast, the Cards battled back to hand me my teaser!!

                As indicated earlier, the other big play is Ravens/SD Over 44

                I'm also gonna do a one-unit play on San Diego +1.5. With perhaps some live-betting and/or 2H fun! Enjoy, should be a good one!
                Comment
                • Capybara
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 08-17-08
                  • 11803

                  #253
                  Originally posted by Capybara
                  Playing these two for multiple units. Let's get it!

                  Balt/SD over 44

                  New England -7


                  Hit my two biggest plays for the second straight week! Man, I hate sweating out garbage-time TD's, though, fukk!
                  Comment
                  • EvilBettor
                    SBR High Roller
                    • 01-07-11
                    • 159

                    #254
                    Originally posted by Capybara


                    Hit my two biggest plays for the second straight week! Man, I hate sweating out garbage-time TD's, though, fukk!
                    Congrats! Morning games were rough with GB losing and then DET winning by only one (had DET -1.5). Ack! NE/over came through and saved me in the afternoon. Then, I cleaned house on everything in the SD game (SD ML, over 44, SD Team total over 21.5, 2H SD +3 and 2H over 22.5)! Up big thanks to SD tonight!

                    What do you like for MNF? I am leaning SF -3 and maybe under. I hate unders, though!
                    Comment
                    • Capybara
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 08-17-08
                      • 11803

                      #255
                      Even though I hate fading as tough and clutch a player as Big Ben, you just have to do it tonight. The guy has a serious f'n sprain he's playing through -- not only will it affect his mobility (which is what he's all about), but you gotta believe his throws will be off since he can't plant properly.

                      Also, the Niners are not just good at home, they're perfect -- 6-0 ATS. Of course, they're banged up too. Gore has not looked right, and no Patrick Willis either. So this is a SMALL play (really should be a no-play but fukk it, it's MNF ) because I still believe the Steelers are the better team. It's really a fading broken Ben vs. a solid D play.

                      SF -3 (1x)

                      And gotta toss in

                      Pitt/SF Under 37.5 (1x)

                      And hey, why not a

                      Pitt/SF 1H Under 19 (1X)


                      Let's get it!
                      Comment
                      • Capybara
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 08-17-08
                        • 11803

                        #256
                        3-0 night, baby, cash 'em all!!

                        Love nights like this! I even hit my unposted plays!
                        Comment
                        • EvilBettor
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 01-07-11
                          • 159

                          #257
                          We're on fire! I guess I was on the same side as you, huh? Up big today!
                          Comment
                          • nmiller1232
                            SBR Rookie
                            • 12-12-11
                            • 38

                            #258
                            Been watching for a couple weeks, defintely gonna start tailing now! BOL in the future (for both our sakes haha)
                            Comment
                            • Capybara
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 08-17-08
                              • 11803

                              #259
                              Hey Gang, sorry for the late post, still at frickin' work! Okay, first, the bookkeeping:

                              Last week, every-game-ATS went 8-6-2 and best-bet/official plays went 9-6-1. Winning % wasn't crazy high but that was like the third straight week that my main plays hit, resulting in a happy Capy.

                              So season figures are at:
                              Every-game-ATS: 108-105-11
                              Best-bet/official plays: 56-50-5

                              Gonna do one play tonight:

                              HOU/Indy under 40.5 1x

                              Not in love with that, but i can see at least one of the two defenses playing well enough for that to hit.

                              As for the pick, gonna ride with:

                              Indy +7.5

                              But no play there. Good luck!
                              Comment
                              • Capybara
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 08-17-08
                                • 11803

                                #260
                                Cash it!

                                Got the ATS pick right too. Love to start a week like that.

                                Awesome game too, great win for the Colts! Happy for my UConn boy Orlovsky, and what a fitting finale for Reggie Wayne in Indy!
                                Comment
                                • gRamblin' Man
                                  SBR High Roller
                                  • 12-14-11
                                  • 170

                                  #261
                                  Hey Capy, have any early leans for the Saturday games? Thanks in advance
                                  Comment
                                  • Capybara
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 08-17-08
                                    • 11803

                                    #262
                                    Happy Holidays, Everyone!

                                    So unfortunately, this Saturday thing has messed up my capping time for NFL, thus I'm unlikely to be making any big plays today... I'm still reviewing everything now and it's not out of the question, but obviously my notification will be quite late.

                                    Originally posted by nmiller1232
                                    Been watching for a couple weeks, defintely gonna start tailing now! BOL in the future (for both our sakes haha)
                                    NMiller, hope you saw my Thursday play and pick -- you would have gone 2-0!
                                    Comment
                                    • Capybara
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 08-17-08
                                      • 11803

                                      #263
                                      Gotta roll with this play:

                                      Carolina -7.5 2x
                                      Comment
                                      • Capybara
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 08-17-08
                                        • 11803

                                        #264
                                        Every-game-ATS picks for the 1:00s:

                                        New England -7
                                        Cleveland +11.5
                                        Cincinnati -3.5
                                        Minnesota +6.5
                                        Pittsburgh -9.5
                                        Oakland +3
                                        Buffalo +3
                                        NY Jets -3
                                        Carolina -7.5
                                        Jacksonville +8.5
                                        Comment
                                        • Capybara
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 08-17-08
                                          • 11803

                                          #265
                                          I did hit a Carolina 1H as well but didn't post it, so no credit for the Capster. Hope they hang on for the two-unit play!!

                                          Throwing this in:

                                          Pittsburgh 2H -3
                                          Comment
                                          • Capybara
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 08-17-08
                                            • 11803

                                            #266
                                            2-0 easy so far and +3 units!

                                            Late games:

                                            Chargers PK (no play)

                                            Back in a jiff, finalizing the other two picks/plays...
                                            Comment
                                            • Capybara
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 08-17-08
                                              • 11803

                                              #267
                                              Rest of afternoon ATS picks:

                                              Philadelphia -1
                                              San Francisco -1.5

                                              (no plays)
                                              Comment
                                              • Dexter
                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                • 12-24-08
                                                • 25829

                                                #268
                                                Happy Holidays Capy!
                                                Comment
                                                • Capybara
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 08-17-08
                                                  • 11803

                                                  #269
                                                  Originally posted by Dexter
                                                  Happy Holidays Capy!
                                                  You too, buddy, enjoy!
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Capybara
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 08-17-08
                                                    • 11803

                                                    #270
                                                    Week 16 so far:

                                                    Every-Game-ATS: 11-3
                                                    Best-Bet Plays: 3-0, +4 units


                                                    Comment
                                                    • paco
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 05-07-09
                                                      • 62873

                                                      #271
                                                      Nice work bro
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Capybara
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 08-17-08
                                                        • 11803

                                                        #272
                                                        Sup, all? Sorry for this late post but just finally finished up with family!

                                                        Prob not playing anythin tonight but the pick I'd made is

                                                        Green Bay -11.5

                                                        My best guess sees Chicago with some fight for a while and eventually GB pulling away for the cover. But GB could also explode out of the gate and then rest guys and get back doored. So no money play. Kind of like the under 41.5 but not quite confidently enough.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Capybara
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 08-17-08
                                                          • 11803

                                                          #273
                                                          Hoping to finish off an amazing weekend... 12-3 ATS and 3-0 in plays this far...

                                                          The pick is pretty clear for tonight:

                                                          New Orleans -7

                                                          As if they weren't already a machine at home, they have plenty of motivation with finishing off their division crown and still trying to get past San Fran for a bye. Probably no Lance Moore tonight, but they're still one of the healthiest teams. Atlanta has plenty of potential to score points, but they're gonna need to be creative I think because Turner is definitely not 100% and always breaks down at this time of year anyway. But I do think they'll make plays and so I kind of like the over too.

                                                          Probably dumb to jeopardize a great weekend with three plays right at the end, but fukk it:

                                                          New Orleans -7 1x

                                                          Over 52 1x

                                                          Teaser (6.5-pt): NO -.5/Over 45.5 1x (only second teaser ever in this thread )
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Chappy
                                                            SBR Rookie
                                                            • 12-26-11
                                                            • 3

                                                            #274
                                                            Hello all and some good tips in this thread!

                                                            My first post after being a long time reader and i have been betting on the NFL for years now and happy to finally be apart of this great community.

                                                            Tonights game i see a lot of support for the over margin of 52. Is it just me or does anyone else sense a great deal of risk here?? That line is touch and go and i can see it staying Unders with the way the Falcons run the ball and burn clock time. Falcons will be doing all they can to control the game and clock with Turner and Brees can't hurt them if he is on the sidelines for extended amounts of time. Both defenses are solid and i don't see a blowout score here.

                                                            Saints will score within the 24-30 range i think and are a solid play -7 but gee the Falcons could do anything and i can see a 27-17 final score quite easily.

                                                            I have put a small amount on Saints -7 and Under 52.

                                                            Good luck to all having a bet tonight.

                                                            Chappy.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Capybara
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 08-17-08
                                                              • 11803

                                                              #275
                                                              Originally posted by Chappy
                                                              Hello all and some good tips in this thread!

                                                              My first post after being a long time reader and i have been betting on the NFL for years now and happy to finally be apart of this great community.

                                                              Tonights game i see a lot of support for the over margin of 52. Is it just me or does anyone else sense a great deal of risk here?? That line is touch and go and i can see it staying Unders with the way the Falcons run the ball and burn clock time. Falcons will be doing all they can to control the game and clock with Turner and Brees can't hurt them if he is on the sidelines for extended amounts of time. Both defenses are solid and i don't see a blowout score here.

                                                              Saints will score within the 24-30 range i think and are a solid play -7 but gee the Falcons could do anything and i can see a 27-17 final score quite easily.

                                                              I have put a small amount on Saints -7 and Under 52.

                                                              Good luck to all having a bet tonight.

                                                              Chappy.
                                                              Welcome to the thread and the forum, Chappy.

                                                              You make a good point about the Falcons needing to keep the Saints off the field, and yes, their defense is decent, but the game is 60 minutes long. I could see Atlanta and the under maybe winning the 1H bets, but in the end I'm pretty sure the Saints will have their 30 or so points. But who knows.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Capybara
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 08-17-08
                                                                • 11803

                                                                #276
                                                                Originally posted by Capybara
                                                                Hoping to finish off an amazing weekend... 12-3 ATS and 3-0 in plays this far...

                                                                The pick is pretty clear for tonight:

                                                                New Orleans -7

                                                                As if they weren't already a machine at home, they have plenty of motivation with finishing off their division crown and still trying to get past San Fran for a bye. Probably no Lance Moore tonight, but they're still one of the healthiest teams. Atlanta has plenty of potential to score points, but they're gonna need to be creative I think because Turner is definitely not 100% and always breaks down at this time of year anyway. But I do think they'll make plays and so I kind of like the over too.

                                                                Probably dumb to jeopardize a great weekend with three plays right at the end, but fukk it:

                                                                New Orleans -7 1x

                                                                Over 52 1x

                                                                Teaser (6.5-pt): NO -.5/Over 45.5 1x (only second teaser ever in this thread )


                                                                WOW, a perfect Week 16!!!

                                                                Every-game-ATS: 13-3!

                                                                Best-bet plays: 6-0, +7 units!

                                                                That's what I'm fukkin' talkin' about!
                                                                Comment
                                                                • 06Ech0
                                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                                  • 11-27-11
                                                                  • 161

                                                                  #277
                                                                  Originally posted by Capybara
                                                                  WOW, a perfect Week 16!!! Every-game-ATS: 13-3! Best-bet plays: 6-0, +7 units! That's what I'm fukkin' talkin' about!
                                                                  Great Job Cappy, Congrats to your great week!
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • shocktopme
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 10-15-10
                                                                    • 940

                                                                    #278
                                                                    .

                                                                    WoW.........Good job bud!!!!Hope ya got some leftover for next week!!!!!!!!
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Capybara
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 08-17-08
                                                                      • 11803

                                                                      #279
                                                                      Happy New Year!

                                                                      I may be a sucker, but before this line gets any more out of control, I got on:

                                                                      Detroit -6

                                                                      I get a distinct "we could really give a shit" vibe from Green Bay, whereas everyone in the Detroit camp knows you can't expect to go to New Orleans and win, so you'd better fukkin win this game. Pissed I let this get to 6, but seems like those GB starters could be all out by the second half, no?

                                                                      New England -10

                                                                      Really think the Bills will more or less pack it in long before this ends, whereas the Pats want to keep the winning streak going, want to secure the home field, and wouldn't mind revenge for a bad loss to Buffalo earlier in the year. Don't think Brady's injury is a big deal. Also, the Pats get some injured starters back on D.

                                                                      More plays and all the ATS picks coming...

                                                                      Oh yeah, bookkeeping: Last week the every-game-ATS portion went 13-3 (!) and best-bet plays went 6-0 (!), which gives us the following season totals:

                                                                      Every-game-ATS: 121-108-11
                                                                      Best-bet plays: 62-50-5
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • shocktopme
                                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                                        • 10-15-10
                                                                        • 940

                                                                        #280
                                                                        .

                                                                        Capy my biotch!!!!!How was your night bud!!!!!Went down to the strip(vegas)....Seen more and ass than a toilet seat in the Superdome!!!!!Good time but im a lil rough around the edges tis morn!!Need beer to get rid of headache!!!!!!Lets win big today brotha!!!!
                                                                        Comment
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