Capy's 2011 NFL Thread (149-118 Every-Game-ATS in 2010 SBR Thread)

[shocktopme]

.

Atlanta ruining my 4 gamer!!!!!!What you like for later bud?

[Capybara]

By the way, is anything more frustrating than not getting your play in? The problem with watching games on delay (which I always end up doing because I'm doing too much at once) is that it fukks you up for 2H bets. Was ready to drop several units on Pats 2H and the fukkin third quarter had started! I suck.

Pissed now. I am gonna cap the fukk out of these 4:00s.

[Capybara]

Atlanta ruining my 4 gamer!!!!!!What you like for later bud?

Posted earlier that my fave play is Baltimore, I got them at -6.5 on Bookmaker. Square play but can't see Cleveland playing four quarters with them.

[shocktopme]

.

hurry bud!!!

[Capybara]

No plays other than the Baltimore -6.5 posted earlier, but for picks I'm rolling with:

NY Giants +8
Dallas -4
San Fran -14

[Capybara]

hurry bud!!!

Haha, sorry bud, I am Mr. Procrastinate as you know... I posted the Balt play hours ago and that's all I like for the 4:00s anyway, so you already saw that. Gonna try to hit a 2H for sure though to make up for the earlier Cincy bust.

[Capybara]

So 8-5 ATS so far today... 1-2 in plays... but... I hit the only one I really needed w Baltimore! -- the large-unit play that was also attached to the three-teamer!

For tonight, not gonna make a play unless I do live or 2H betting, but the pick is:

New Orleans -8.5

because you simply can't pick against them at home, with how healthy they are and the ridiculous level that Brees is playing at. Plus Lions getting a bit banged up and no Suh either. Holding off on a play because I could see the Lions coming out the more focused and intense team in this one. And I like the over like everyone does, but it's so high now that it scares me off.

[Capybara]

Lookin' for the 10-win weekend ATS... Can we do it? The pick is:

San Diego -3

That's an official play as well.

San Diego is bad, but are they Jaguars bad? No. In fact, with Matthews and Gates both back and healthy and even Floyd now too, this offense gets very dangerous, especially against a team missing most of its DBs. And even though the Chargers' D may have some trouble with MJD, if they can contain him even a little, can Gabbert stay with Rivers? Unlikely.

I have a hard time seeing this not going over 39 too, but momentarily holding off on the over play.

[Capybara]

Okay, adding a small play on the Over 39 to the larger SD play. Let's make some money tonight!

[Capybara]

Cash 'em!!

Nothing like a nice and easy 2-0 night!

So the thread finishes Week 13 at 10-6 in the every-game-ATS portion and 3-2 in best-bet plays. Actually finished well in the black due to hitting my two biggest plays in Baltimore and SD... Since that sounds lame without me having posted any units, I think starting next weekend I'll post actual juice and units again. Maybe too little too late, but at least it'll be accurate from here through the Super Bowl!

Season tallies:

Every-Game-ATS: 96-89-7
Best-Bet Plays: 40-39-3 (16-7-1 last three weeks!)

Capy out!

[EvilBettor]

Cash 'em!!

Nothing like a nice and easy 2-0 night!

So the thread finishes Week 13 at 10-6 in the every-game-ATS portion and 3-2 in best-bet plays. Actually finished well in the black due to hitting my two biggest plays in Baltimore and SD... Since that sounds lame without me having posted any units, I think starting next weekend I'll post actual juice and units again. Maybe too little too late, but at least it'll be accurate from here through the Super Bowl!

Season tallies:

Every-Game-ATS: 96-89-7
Best-Bet Plays: 40-39-3 (16-7-1 last three weeks!)

Capy out!

Getting Hot Capy! Keep it up! Any leans for Thurs or Sun. games? TIA

[Capybara]

Getting Hot Capy! Keep it up! Any leans for Thurs or Sun. games? TIA

Thanks, Bud!

Yeah, for leans I'm liking Raiders +12, and the SD/Buf Over 46.5. It's an interesting board.

[Capybara]

While I'm always afraid about the trap in these one-sided games, there's simply no way you can reasonably back the Browns right now against the Steelers. Not only are the Steelers clicking, but they're pretty f'n healthy too for Week 14. Browns are just a total mess. I guess they could pick it up for this one, but I can't see it on paper, so it's:

Pittsburgh -13.5

[JR007]

solid record

[Capybara]

Thanks, Bud!

Yeah, for leans I'm liking Raiders +12, and the SD/Buf Over 46.5. It's an interesting board.

Locked in the two leans I mentioned earlier in the week.

The only 1:00 play (barring last-second action) is:

Pats/Skins Under 47.5

All placed at Bookmaker, all -110.

[shocktopme]

.

Go get em bud!!!!Hey dont take your cell phone to the theatre to make bets!!!!!

[Capybara]

Had a crazy week and ended up spending as little time as I have all season on capping NFL...

Having said that, watch me have my best week.

Every-Game-ATS 1:00 picks:

Baltimore -16.5
Cincinnati -1
NY Jets -10
Detroit -10
New England -7
Tennessee +3.5
Carolina +3
Philadelphia +3
Tampa Bay -2.5

[Capybara]

Edit:

Put that wrong, Miami -3 was my pick. (Nothing happened yet, Philly with the ball I believe.)

[Capybara]

Well, couldn't have capped the Pats/Skins O/U any more wrong...

Playing:

2H Baltimore -7

[Capybara]

Playing:

San Francisco -3

SF/AZ Under 39.5

[Capybara]

Denver -3

Den/Chi Under 36

[Capybara]

San Diego -7

[Capybara]

Honestly I can't really figure out which way to go tonight. But I want the action, so I'm gonna take the road 'dog in a big division game.

NY Giants +5

And now that the O/U dipped below 50, I'm grabbing the over.

NYG/Dal Over 49

Could completely alter both of these via live betting, we'll see.

[Capybara]

Another ordinary week, but I did go 4-0-1 with the above last four plays yesterday, so perhaps I can carry that momentum into tonight.

Playing:

STL/Sea Over 38

Was thinking under all day, but have done a 180 and now I am actually liking this over, maybe I'm nuts.

Not playing it, but my pick is

Seattle -9

In the mood for live betting or 2H, so we'll see how this game reveals itself. Good luck.

[Capybara]

Damn, over looking shaky.

Going for:

2H Seattle -3 (+110, am I getting duped? )

[Capybara]

Playing:

STL/Sea Over 38

Not playing it, but my pick is

Seattle -9

Going for:

2H Seattle -3 (+110, am I getting duped? )

YEEESSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!! Cash 'em both!!!!

[EvilBettor]

YEEESSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!! Cash 'em both!!!!

Congrats again! I saw your SEA -3 2H in-game comment. I had SEA -3 2H and u17.5 I can't believe they scored 30 pts in the 2H! That's the NFL for you.

Who do you like this Thurs. and Sat.? I like Atlanta at home. But, not liking -11. But, I have a feeling this line is going up to -12 or -13 by game time. Hmm... Might tease this one down. I'm also really liking Dallas -6.5. What do you think?

[Capybara]

Congrats again! I saw your SEA -3 2H in-game comment. I had SEA -3 2H and u17.5 I can't believe they scored 30 pts in the 2H! That's the NFL for you.

Who do you like this Thurs. and Sat.? I like Atlanta at home. But, not liking -11. But, I have a feeling this line is going up to -12 or -13 by game time. Hmm... Might tease this one down. I'm also really liking Dallas -6.5. What do you think?

Hey Evil, sorry I never got back to ya, Bro. Busy week as usual! You were sure right about the Atlanta line heading up and up!

So first, the bookkeeping. Last week sucked as far as overall ATS, at 4-10-2 (wow), but cleaned up nicely with the actual selected plays, which went 7-5-1. Sorry that I again didn't record units clearly or anything, so feel free to ignore me when I say it, but the San Diego and Seattle 2H plays were big scores for the Capster!

Season totals:
Every Game ATS: 100-99-9
Best-Bet Plays: 47-44-4 (last 7 = 6-0-1!)

On to tonight:

[Capybara]

As for the spread tonight, been going back and forth, so it's not a play. However, since Atlanta is just NOT typically a big cover type of team, and since Jax have shown signs of life of late, I guess the pick will be

Jacksonville +14

Although could have easily gone the other way, since I can't figure out how Jax will score more than 13 or 14. Which leads me to two plays:

Jax/Atl 1H under 21.5 2x

Jax/Atl under 41.5 1x

As I said, Atlanta rarely blows teams out, plus the Jax D is slightly underrated and the team is now playing with a bit of fire. Both teams want to grind it out. Also, Turner may be hitting the wall now, leading to more 3rd and longs and more punts for Atl. We'll see.

[shocktopme]

.

Wow....See Im thinking Falcons cover the 11 points.....Gabbert prolly throws 2 to 3 picks tonight....I dunno damn Thurs. night football games are made for the fifth dimension!!!

[EvilBettor]

Hey Evil, sorry I never got back to ya, Bro. Busy week as usual! You were sure right about the Atlanta line heading up and up!

So first, the bookkeeping. Last week sucked as far as overall ATS, at 4-10-2 (wow), but cleaned up nicely with the actual selected plays, which went 7-5-1. Sorry that I again didn't record units clearly or anything, so feel free to ignore me when I say it, but the San Diego and Seattle 2H plays were big scores for the Capster!

Season totals:
Every Game ATS: 100-99-9
Best-Bet Plays: 47-44-4 (last 7 = 6-0-1!)

On to tonight:

No problem. We are all busy. Tough losses tonight. I guess I didn't need ATL teased after all. Regardless, I won my teaser ATL/over. Do you like Dallas -6.5? I am liking DAL -6.5 a lot as long as Dallas can finish!

[Capybara]

No problem. We are all busy. Tough losses tonight. I guess I didn't need ATL teased after all. Regardless, I won my teaser ATL/over. Do you like Dallas -6.5? I am liking DAL -6.5 a lot as long as Dallas can finish!

Hey Man, nice work! You too, Shocker!

I haven't looked super closely at the Dal game, but yeah, it's hard not to see them taking care of business big-time this week... so definitely lean Dallas -6.5. Should prob jump on it before all the books have 'em at 7 actually.

[Capybara]

Not gonna overthink tonight. Of course Tampa could suddenly right the ship and play a spirited game, but I can't find a good reason to back them. So it's Dallas.

Dallas -7

Think I may tease Dallas and the over as well. But don't track teasers in here.

[Capybara]

Playing these two for multiple units. Let's get it!

Balt/SD over 44

New England -7

[Capybara]

Also gonna play:

Tennessee -6.5