Capy's 2011 NFL Thread (149-118 Every-Game-ATS in 2010 SBR Thread)

jonathon1995 · 10-28-11, 01:15 PM

Originally posted by Capybara

One play I like and am already on for Week 8:

New England -2.5

As good as the Steelers are, their defense is poorly designed to stop what the Pats do. Brady has owned them. And despite that, I don't think Lebeau and Tomlin are likely to change what they do very much. Maybe they blitz a little more, but I don't see that working anyway. Yes, the Pats D has mostly sucked, but their D-line is getting healthier and they should be able to rotate enough guys in to disrupt Ben a little and play okay... And even though the bye week hasn't been helping teams much this season, this is Belichick, it helps the Pats.

Brady is 8-0 coming off a bye week. I have an open ended 2 team parlay the first game hit last night, I'm putting this game as my 2nd game.

fishmonger · 10-28-11, 01:40 PM

52.5% to break even assuming you play every game at -110. Not 60%. Hitting that is a awesome year.

Capybara · 10-28-11, 03:23 PM

Originally posted by fishmonger

52.5% to break even assuming you play every game at -110. Not 60%. Hitting that is a awesome year.

Yeah, that's why I was proud of that 56% documented in last year's thread! Done that before too. I've been 59 or 60 for pretty extended periods and I think a season but indeed hard to maintain that all the way through.

Capybara · 10-29-11, 06:57 PM

Busy day and still working out all my NFL leans, but trying to complete a perfect NCAA day with Ga Tech +3.5 and USC +7.5!

(Loving dogs today, already hit Vandy and Missouri.) Sadly, I may be having a better year in college this season, which is very weird...)

Capybara · 10-29-11, 10:35 PM

Originally posted by Capybara

Busy day and still working out all my NFL leans, but trying to complete a perfect NCAA day with Ga Tech +3.5 and USC +7.5!

(Loving dogs today, already hit Vandy and Missouri.) Sadly, I may be having a better year in college this season, which is very weird...)

4-0 today! Damn, hope I didn't use up my good fortune for the weekend!

Capybara · 10-30-11, 12:26 AM

Originally posted by Capybara

4-0 today! Damn, hope I didn't use up my good fortune for the weekend!

Okay,sorry, ended up 3-1 not 4-0. Excuse me, but how the fukk do you not cover getting 7.5 going into OT?! Bad fukkin beat.

shocktopme · 10-30-11, 10:35 AM

.

Where are ya bud????

Capybara · 10-30-11, 10:55 AM

Another week, another thoroughly unattractive card... ugh!

Still working it out, but the best I see so far, as indicated above, is New England -2.5.

Plus, I am liking NY Giants -9.5. No Daniel Thomas for the 'Fins, for one thing. And the Giants getting some defenders back as well. I feel like the debacle of losing the 15-point lead at the end last Sunday might bring Miami close to that breaking point of starting to give up earlier in games now... just a hunch. What do you guys think?

Oh, and I do like Dallas +3. They'll run it, set up plenty of opportunities for Romo, D will make some plays, I think they get it done.

But seriously, college has been the much easier sport to cap thus far!

Back with more in a bit...

Capybara · 10-30-11, 12:01 PM

The rest of the every-game picks:

Tennessee -7.5
Houston -9.5
Carolina -3
New Orleans -13.5
Arizona +13
Washington +4.5
Detroit -3
Cleveland +10
Cincinnati -1
KC +3.5

Capybara · 10-30-11, 12:03 PM

Few O/U's I threw a dart at and am trying to hit:

Indy/Tenn over 43.5
Buff/Wash under 46.5
SF/Cle under 38.5

rsktkr · 10-30-11, 01:58 PM

Are these totals BB Capy?

poochiecollins · 10-30-11, 02:47 PM

PICKS! The early games were unusable.

Capybara · 10-30-11, 02:51 PM

Originally posted by poochiecollins

PICKS! The early games were unusable.

They're up there, Pooch.

Capybara · 10-30-11, 02:53 PM

Originally posted by rsktkr

Are these totals BB Capy?

Yup, anything I bold is an official play. Tail at your own risk, though, these last few weeks have been so friggin' hard to cap.

Let's see if I can pull out this Indy/Tenn over... gonna be close.

poochiecollins · 10-30-11, 04:10 PM

Originally posted by Capybara

They're up there, Pooch.

Oh, sorry! I misread that post.

Capybara · 10-30-11, 06:16 PM

Congrats to you Steelers backers, you guys had it right on.

On the bright side, I hit my two afternoon unders!

Debating going extra units on the Cowboys or trying an o/u... hmm...

Capybara · 10-30-11, 07:03 PM

No play on the o/u tonight, but I hope I can finish strong with the Dallas +3. Playing it for a couple of units plus a moneyline.

Such a scary team to back, you never know what you're gonna get... but I just can't bet past them being a better balanced team and much stronger in the trenches than Philly...

May come back with a 2H play if the inspiration hits...

Hope everyone did well today!

poochiecollins · 10-30-11, 07:21 PM

How'd you do so far?

Capybara · 10-30-11, 08:42 PM

Wow, I was right on the money tonight.

Tired of this NFL season already. I may change this thread into an NCAA thread!

So the Dallas loss leaves today's every-game-ATS at 5-6-1, and the official plays at 2-4. Ugh.

Not bothering with 2H, but I will be making some coin back tomorrow fukking night, count on it. Capy out.

poochiecollins · 10-30-11, 10:36 PM

Originally posted by Capybara

Not bothering with 2H, but I will be making some coin back tomorrow fukking night, count on it. Capy out.

"Win if you can, lose if you must, but always chase!"

jaeguyoon · 10-30-11, 10:39 PM

Come back harder tmr!

Capybara · 10-31-11, 07:25 PM

My gut is telling me San Diego -3 tonight, so I'm changing the play to that. Yeah, Arrowhead, yeah, MNF, yeah three-game win streak... but Chargers are better so I'm gonna roll with em.

I'm also on the Over 44.5.

shocktopme · 10-31-11, 07:42 PM

.

yeah buddy!!!!!!!!

Capybara · 10-31-11, 09:18 PM

2H San Diego -4.5

Fukkin SD is so much the right side in this game and the fukkin refs are stealing money out of my pocket! Offensive interference on Gates on that TD?! The FUKK it was! Game should be about 17-10 San Diego right now.

Capybara · 11-01-11, 11:09 AM

Thank god for 2H bets, made back my investment!

Very happy with my capping for last night; anyone who watched saw that San Diego was the right side, as was the over. How many more things could possibly happen to prevent SD points?! Utterly ridiculous.

Capybara · 11-01-11, 11:15 AM

Jumping all over Oakland -7.5... Money in the bank, folks.

Also really like New England. They don't lose two in a row, and as bad as their defense was, they still clamped down in the red zone and only gave up 23.... You guys think it may come down from 8 or better to grab it there?

poochiecollins · 11-02-11, 03:04 PM

Originally posted by Capybara

Jumping all over Oakland -7.5... Money in the bank, folks.

Nooo! Don't kill Tebow!

Edit: Capy, how about keeping a separate tab for your chase plays. You haven't documented them back years, by chance?

Capybara · 11-03-11, 02:11 PM

For tonight:

Boston College +15.5

Been killing it in college over the last month, so screw it, gonna start keeping track in here. Of course, I've probably now just jinxed myself.

poochiecollins · 11-03-11, 04:50 PM

Have you done college football a while, or.. ? Also, my previous question? Thanks, Cap.

Capybara · 11-03-11, 11:23 PM

Originally posted by poochiecollins

Have you done college football a while, or.. ? Also, my previous question? Thanks, Cap.

You sure ask a lot of questions, Pooch! Yes, been doing college football a while but not as seriously as NFL... But this has been probably my most successful season with it, tonight notwithstanding, so I decided I'm going to throw them in here and see how I do tracking them.

Regarding chase plays, no I don't "track" those specifically... and not sure how you're interpreting a "chase" play anyway. Do you just mean any last-second play, or do you mean specifically plays when you're pissed you off and trying to recover! I think I have a decent track record of recovering losses, but obviously I've buried myself at other times, like everyone...

Capybara · 11-03-11, 11:28 PM

Getting on Miami +4 and on St. Louis +2.5! (Wouldn't mind 3 with STL but that looks to be gone, never to return...?)

Capybara · 11-05-11, 10:49 AM

Texas -14

NC State +3.5

Capybara · 11-05-11, 11:38 AM

Denver/Oakland under 43

Capybara · 11-05-11, 02:45 PM

Originally posted by Capybara

Texas -14

NC State +3.5

Too easy.

poochiecollins · 11-06-11, 12:09 PM

Originally posted by Capybara

You sure ask a lot of questions, Pooch!

Because betting with money (or SBR points, which is kind of like money :-p) is SRS BSNS. Numbers are of the utmost importance here. Does my inquisitiveness bother you? I could go elsewhere if it's a problem.

Regarding chase plays, no I don't "track" those specifically... and not sure how you're interpreting a "chase" play anyway.

I define chase plays as those you make after losing or will likely lose. If you make a mid-game/late bet that you would've made regardless of how you recently did, it's not a chase. If you're able to go back and check the results of such plays, you can conclude if you should make those type of plays more frequently regardless of how you're doing, or if you shouldn't make them at all.

Edit: PICKS! No last minute stuff! *growl*