Capy's 2011 NFL Thread (149-118 Every-Game-ATS in 2010 SBR Thread)

[Capybara]

Final ATS pick of the week:

Washington +3.5

No best bet on this game. (In actuality, the bet I like is to tease Washington and the Under and get +10 and Under 52.) My concern with this pick is that the game is gonna be Wash, Wash, Wash, and then suddenly Dallas in the end w the late cover. Just a feeling. But gotta take the points given the sheer number of key Dallas players who aren't at full strength. And the 'Skins defense is actually starting to gel nicely. I thought about a best-bet under but can't pull the trigger, there's just too many things that could kill that.

Hoping for a nice finish to the week...

And that caps off a great week! 10-5-1 ATS and 4-2 in Best Bets! Wish I hadn't been gun shy about best-betting that under play tonight, but ah well...

Each week a little better, just as I'd hoped... Now got to keep it going!

[Capybara]

Here are my 1:00 ATS picks, with Best Bets in bold, for one unit each.

Houston -3.5
Cincinnati +3
Detroit +2.5
Chicago -6.5
Minnesota -2.5
New Orleans -7.5
San Francisco +10
Tennessee +1.5
Washington -3

[Capybara]

Rest of today's ATS picks, Best Bet bolded and one unit.

Atlanta -5.5
Arizona +2
Green Bay -11.5
San Diego -6.5
New England -6
NY Jets +5.5

[Capybara]

Here are my 1:00 ATS picks, with Best Bets in bold, for one unit each.

Houston -3.5
Cincinnati +3
Detroit +2.5
Chicago -6.5
Minnesota -2.5
New Orleans -7.5
San Francisco +10
Tennessee +1.5
Washington -3

7-2 ATS and 3-0 in Best Bets for the 1:00's!! This ship is fukkin rollin' now.

[Capybara]

So 10-4 ATS so far this week and 3-1 in Best Bets...

Gonna toss a Best Bet for 1x down as well on Jets/Ravens Over 43. I can see the Jet receivers taking advantage of a wounded Ravens secondary. And Flacco/Rice/O-line has been playing well for Balt. Can also easily see a quick score on D or ST from either side in this one. Not super confident, but what the heck.

[Capybara]

Nice easy win with that over! Day:

4-1 in Best Bets
10-5 ATS

MNF is a toughie... gonna think about it some more!

[poochiecollins]

Congrats, Mr. Capsters. Post your season-to-date stats, or at least after tonight's game.

[mp5070]

[Capybara]

Wow, tonight's game is a bitch to cap. Gone back and forth about five times. But when it's all said and done, as much as I hate laying all those points behind a young team who hasn't really proven anything yet, after analyzing everything, I have to give the 10.

Buccaneers -10 (no best-bet play)

I just think that when you factor in the all the key injuries for Indy (forget Manning, how about Brackett (though Angerer will be good), Bullitt, and Moala), and look at the talent disparity at almost every position (and even in ST), AND then combine it with a huge opportunity for a STATEMENT game on MNF in front of a sold-out crowd, that is the play. I'm afraid for an overly conservative game plan by Morris, as well as a back-door cover against a young team, but I still see this one finishing at like 24-13 or something.

[Capybara]

Tallying up the thread at Poochie's request...

Let me start with the last two weeks:

20-11-1 ATS, 8-3 in Best Bets !

Just wanted to point that out!

The four-week season tally actually looks like this:

34-28-2 ATS, 13-10-1 in Best Bets.

Nothing amazing yet, but in the black. But hey, as I noted earlier, it takes time to get to know the 2011 teams and get rolling, and I'm happy with the momentum we've got going!

Did I mention the 20-11-1 ATS, 8-3 BB the last two weeks?

How's everyone else doing so far?

[Capybara]

Plays I'm on for Week 5:

Denver +4

Denver/SD under 46.5

Green Bay -5

Tennessee +3.5

More to come plus all the ATS picks...

[Capybara]

Adding...

Giants/Seahawks over 43.5

[Capybara]

Every game ATS 1:00 games:

KC +2.5
Arizona +3.5
Buffalo +3
Cincinnati -1.5
Carolina +7
Seattle +10.5
Oakland +5.5
Tennessee +3.5

[Capybara]

Yikes, scared of being on all these 'dogs, but we'll see how it goes. BOL to all today!

[Capybara]

4:05 ats:

Sf -2.5

[Capybara]

4:15 picks:

New England -7.5
Denver +4

And tonight:

Green Bay -5

Afternoon best bets were indicated earlier in the thread.

Kinda like the under in Pats/Jets but can't pull the trigger!

[Capybara]

Every game ATS 1:00 games:

KC +2.5
Arizona +3.5
Buffalo +3
Cincinnati -1.5
Carolina +7
Seattle +10.5
Oakland +5.5
Tennessee +3.5

6-2 ATS in the 1:00's!

[Galego]

Great in the afternoon!!

I like the Packers tonight!! Falcons are awful!!!

[Capybara]

Thanks, Gallego!

Man, I fukkin KNEW it, Pats/Jets under is gonna come in easy, why was I such a p-ssy?! Well, I guess cuz it's hard to root an under in when it's your home team playing!

[poochiecollins]

Thanks, Gallego! Man, I fukkin KNEW it, Pats/Jets under is gonna come in easy, why was I such a p-ssy?! Well, I guess cuz it's hard to root an under in when it's your home team playing!

Nahh, that's like saying I should've known the lottery numbers after the fact. You're probably going to be right on roughly 50% of the straight bets you don't make. Keep your business face on, brah.

[Capybara]

So 9-3 yesterday against the spread. From Week 3 on, that makes this thread 29-14-1 ! Or, 66%. Not to be pompous, but what does a guy have to do to start getting tailed around here?! (Well, I guess it prob doesn't help that I post my picks so last-minute. )

In best-bet land, we sadly only went 2-3. Might be time to just start playing every game at a unit or half-unit each.

So tonight's play:

Detroit -5.5

Chicago looked like an RLM possibility for a bit, but I honestly never cared. Unless they can ball-control all day with Forte, Cutler is gonna get abused. He's not gonna have time to get downfield to his outside guys. Not sure how much Fairley will play, but he and Suh should have some fun against a patchwork line. On the other side, the Lions need better balance, but if they can keep the Bears' D honest, Stafford is in total command right now, and as everyone has seen, CJ is undefendable. Scary to cover 6 in a division game, but gotta roll with the better team.

[Capybara]

The above is an official play, by the way. Forgot to bold-face it but we're making it the sixth BB play of the weekend to try and even that record. Also looking for the third straight 10-win ATS NFL weekend!

[Galego]

Good to see that you are on the LIONS!!!

Good luck!!!

[JMobile]

Who do you like in the Rams/Packers game spread?

[poochiecollins]

Cappy, what is your YTD record for best-bets and all other plays, separately? I miiiight start factoring your plays into my gamblinz now.

[Ice House]

you pick way too many games

[Capybara]

Cappy, what is your YTD record for best-bets and all other plays, separately? I miiiight start factoring your plays into my gamblinz now.

Heya Pooch. YTD is 44-31-2 (59%) for every game. Best bets is at 16-13-1. But over the last three weeks, every game is at 30-14-1 (68%). With best bets at 11-6.

[Capybara]

<oops, dupe post, sorry>

[Capybara]

you pick way too many games

Umm, that's what this thread Is, I pick every game. I try to highlight best bets as well, but I've never claimed that's my forte.

[klrqn]

some people ha...really all you have to do is look at the title to know what capy is doing, ahhhh well. nice last couple of weeks you've had capybara, congrats!

[poochiecollins]

Capy! Get your bets posted before 1, damnit! This is the first week I'll try to use your picks.

[shocktopme]

.

wheres the picks?

[Capybara]

Man, I fukkin hate this week's board... probably wasn't the best time to open my mouth about how well I've been doing!

Well, here's my best shot at the 1:00's... gone back and forth on just about every play.

Green Bay -14
Pittsburgh -12.5
Washington +3
Detroit -5
Carolina +3.5
Cincinnati -5
Buffalo +3

NO best bets on these games.

[poochiecollins]

Jeeze, SBR Sportsbook was refusing bets at 12:59 p.m. So, I couldn't use your picks anyway :-/ When you do have best bets, I liked when they were bold. Astericks could also work.

[Capybara]

Jeeze, SBR Sportsbook was refusing bets at 12:59 p.m. So, I couldn't use your picks anyway :-/ When you do have best bets, I liked when they were bold. Astericks could also work.

Come on, Pooch, I gave you 10 whole minutes! Haha. No, but in all seriousness, if I continue to do well and people are wanting them, then I admit that yeah, I can't procrastinate so much in here!

Indeed, the best-bet plays will continue to be bold.

Good luck today!