Capy's 2011 NFL Thread (149-118 Every-Game-ATS in 2010 SBR Thread)

[shocktopme]

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Sportin the Walt White avatar now huh......Ya breakin out the glass pipe too?????Good luck today bud......Gotta cruise by Films threads too.....Later

[Capybara]

Oops, forgot the final fave on that list:

Dallas -7

No best-bet plays for the 1:00 games. Will prob do some 2H though.

[Capybara]

First best-bet for today:

Atlanta -6

Like this play. Did it for several units.

[Capybara]

Playing 2H Detroit -6.5

[Capybara]

Today's 4:05 picks, w one play:

St. Louis -3
Arizona +10.5

[Capybara]

4:15 picks:

Atlanta -6, as noted earlier
Chicago -4

[Capybara]

Still can't f'n believe I got a push out of Atlanta -6. Nothing sucks more than a team miraculously pulling a back-door cover out to fukk you (with, in this case, Jake Locker replacing the injured, ineffective Matt Hasselbeck and pulling Brett Favre shit out of his ass, like converting 4th and 16, etc.). Gimme a break. I could have used those five f'n units!

Anyway, tonight's pick, and play, is:

NY Giants -5.5

May not have played that, but now I'm pissed. And that's how we do things.

[Capybara]

Probably not playing it, but tonight's pick is:

New England -15

I can see KC hanging around, perhaps even for the 1H play, but in the end the Pats are gonna get their points, and can Tyler Palko hang? Doubt it. In fact, I can see Ricky Stanzi getting into this game.

Having said that, I like 'Jonathan Baldwin Over 2 receptions' a lot as a prop. Seems to me a first-time-starting QB would rely on his huge slot receiver a fair amount against a zone defense.

Might be back w a 2H play, we'll see.

[Capybara]

Playing Pats Team Total over 32. I've never tracked those in here, but fukk it, it's my play so I'll count it for or against my best bet record.

[Capybara]

[Live Bet] New England -10.5

[Capybara]

I suck so fukking bad. Was about to go Chiefs tonight and ramble on about how Crennel of all people should KNOW HOW TO MAKE THINGS TOUGH on the Pats... but noooooo, of course I drink the Kool-Aid like I always do with EVERYBODY carrying on about the blowout and yada yada yada.

I hate myself.

I am gonna live-bet my whole balance until I come out plus.

Fukk the NFL this season!!!!!

[Capybara]

3rd Quarter Over 10 Pts

[Capybara]

Holy shit, 4-0 tonight in plays including my prop!

Finally a night in the black with NFL, almost forgot what that feels like!

[Capybara]

So after that nice night, the week wraps up at:

Every-Game-ATS: 6-6-2

Best-Bet Plays: 5-2-1

Leaving the season totals at:

Every-Game-ATS: 77-76-7

Best-Bet Plays: 29-34-3

Still waiting for a nice run like I had over that three-week stretch a while ago, but at least we finally made some money this weekend! Be back soon for the Thursday games.

[Capybara]

Happy Thanksgiving!

My every-game-ATS picks today, which are also all best-bets, are:

Detroit +7
Miami +7.5
Baltimore -3

I am also on:

GB/Det Under 55.5
Mia/Dal Under 45

BOL to all today!

[ttrace35]

Happy Turkey Day Capy.

[shocktopme]

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Happy bird day bud!!!I like Miami +7.5 but only getting 7 unless I buy the hook!!!!!All solid looking plays today!!!!Good luck

[Capybara]

Happy Turkey Day Capy.

Thanks, Trace, hope you had a good one!

You too, Shocker!

[Capybara]

Happy Thanksgiving!

My every-game-ATS picks today, which are also all best-bets, are:

Detroit +7
Miami +7.5
Baltimore -3

I am also on:

GB/Det Under 55.5
Mia/Dal Under 45

BOL to all today!

3-1 so far today!. Also hit a nice parlay with Miami and that under!

And hedged my Det play with a 2H Green Bay!

Let's get the Baltimore play to make this a great f'n Thanksgiving!

[Capybara]

4-1 in plays on Thursday! Hope I can carry that momentum into today!

First thing I really like is

Cincinnati -6.5

Browns are a team whose only chance is to establish a running game, going against a team with a great run defense... neutralize that and it's not even close. Dalton's been great and Cincy is a solid and balanced team who just lost two tough ones to great teams, whereas Cleveland had to fight tooth and nail to beat Blaine Gabbert. I'll take this with an under 7 spread all day.

[Capybara]

It may be the squarest play on the board, but still playing:

Houston -6

How do you not?

[Capybara]

Final play of the 1:00 is

Carolina -3

And the rest of the picks are:

Arizona +3
NY Jets -9
Atlanta -9.5
Tampa Bay +3

[Capybara]

No 4:05 plays but my picks are:

Chicago +3
Washington +3.5

[Capybara]

Playing both 4:15 games:

New England -3
San Diego -4

[Capybara]

Not really moved to make a play on tonight's game, but the pick is:

Pittsburgh -10.5

[Capybara]

Hoped to finish out another solid weekend of plays w action tonight... however, not confident enough to make a play on the side or total, so will wait for the 2H or possibly live betting. But the pick is:

New Orleans -7

The Giants do usually respond to tough situations and adversity, and I see them making this a game, but by the end Brees/Payton almost always make their adjustments and have their way, especially in the Dome. Saints are also much healthier than the Giants. Giants know what they want to do to control the tempo and the game, but can they actually do it?

[Capybara]

MNF [Live Bet] Over 40.5

[Capybara]

Tallying up...

So last night capped off our second straight strong week of plays! 8-3! And over the last two weeks, 13-5-1! Even the every-game-ATS finally cracked .500 again at 9-7! Hope we can keep it going down the home stretch...

Season tallies:

Every-Game-ATS: 86-83-7
Best Bet Plays: 37-37-3

Side note: I realize now it was dumb not to include juice and units like I did in the 2010 thread. Started with it but abandoned it due to laziness. Will return to that next year, as you can't really have a legit thread without them!

[shocktopme]

NFL

Any early #'s you like to jump on now??

[Capybara]

Good evening and apologies for my lateness!

Basically who the fukk knows tonight, but my best guesses for tonight are Philly and the Over. No plays though. Unless I pop back with 2H or live bets. Good luck to all.

So the pick is:

Philadelphia -3

[Capybara]

Oh, but I do actually love two props that I'm on:

D. Jackson over 67.5 yards

and

Does D. Jackson score a TD? Yes.

[Capybara]

Happy Week 13. The tally of the solid last couple of weekends, and the season tallies, are a few posts above this.

Looks too easy to me, but my favorite play is:

Baltimore -6.5

They've been "trapped" twice already this year, gotta think they'll be a little more ready this time, and the Browns are garbage. Yeah, division game, but Ravens cover in the end.

Back in a jiff with all the picks and maybe a couple more plays.

[Capybara]

Playing:

Den/Minn Under 37.5

[Capybara]

Every-game-ATS 1:00 picks:

Buffalo pk
Kansas City +10
Miami -3
Cincinnati +8
NY Jets -3
Atlanta -1
Denver +2
Indianapolis +21.5
Tampa Bay +2

[Capybara]

Playing:

2H Cincinnati +.5