Capy's 2011 NFL Thread (149-118 Every-Game-ATS in 2010 SBR Thread)

[Capybara]

Football is back!

Just gettin' this thread ready. Last year hit at 56% (149-118) in the every-game-ATS portion of my thread, plus won 20 units in my best-bet portion (80-68-1). I pretty much stuck to +120 to -120 plays in the best-bet portion, didn't play around with props, teasers, parlays, etc. Will probably do things similarly this season.

Just ready to get things going again... Will be back tomorrow to kick it off!

Good luck to all this NFL season. Thank god it's back!!

[Capybara]

Saints/Packers Under 48.5, Bodog (1x)

Saints +5, -110, Bodog (1x)

Nothing big, just a lean... Two pretty even teams, two precision QBs with excellent weapons... but I trust the Saints just slightly more in the trenches, not sold on GB's O-line to keep Rodgers clean, especially if Grant and Starks don't get it going on the ground... plus I think the Saints will be the less rusty team, as they had excellent players-only workouts that Brees assembled. Can't see why not to take the points.

The under I think is obvious. But again just a small play.

[Capybara]

1:00 Every Game ATS picks:

Atlanta -1
Kansas City -3.5
Cleveland -6.5
Detroit +1.5
Indianapolis +9
St Louis +4
Pittsburgh +1.5
Tennessee -1

Best-bet plays:

Falcons -1, -110 (Bookmaker) 1x

[Capybara]

Wow, talk about a horrific Week 1...

4:15 Every Game ATS picks:

Arizona -6.5
San Diego -9
Washington +2
San Francisco -5.5

Best-bet plays:

Washington +2, -110 (Bookmaker) 1x

[Capybara]

Picked things up a bit by going 3-1 in the late games and hitting my best bet.

8:15 Every Game ATS pick:

Cowboys +6.5 (w/ very little confidence)

Best-bet play:

Jets/Cowboys Over 41, -110 (Bookmaker) 1x

Thankfully all small plays Week 1 since (obviously) no one has any feel! Anyone winning anything out there?

[Capybara]

2-0 last night, starting to pick up...

Tonight's Every Game ATS pick, Game 1:

Pats -7

Also two small best-bet plays:

Pats -7, -110 (Bookmaker) 1x

Pats/Fins Under 47.5, -110 (Legends) 1x

[Capybara]

Never playing an under again -- dead money in today's NFL.

10:15 Every Game ATS bet:

Broncos -3

[poochiecollins]

Capy, you never replied to my thread about you! http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-ta...-capybara.html

I'll track you here and might tail you next season if you do well, or possibly later this season if you do great.

[Capybara]

Just tallying up week 1...

Well, I did go 4-0 in Beat the Prick, so there's that!

In the thread, however, Ugly:

Every Game ATS went 6-10.

Best bets weren't quite as bad: 3-4, so -1.40 units.

In any event, that was our first real look at the teams, so I expect a lot of folks got similarly taken to school... I for one plan to begin righting the ship immediately in Week 2! Be back soon...

[poochiecollins]

I wouldn't worry about throwing down something for every game, unless you're just doing it in this thread for giggles -- I assume you're not betting real money on every game.

And because I know you -all- are wondering, Capy replied to me via PM, lest you think he's rude.

[Capybara]

I wouldn't worry about throwing down something for every game, unless you're just doing it in this thread for giggles -- I assume you're not betting real money on every game.

And because I know you -all- are wondering, Capy replied to me via PM, lest you think he's rude.

That's right, Poochie, I don't throw money on every game, I just pick every game in here because I've noticed in the past that I almost always do very well overall, even while not necessarily properly selecting which games to play. So I wanted to show an overall record in here, as I hope it will continue to be very solid. (I haven't kept records pre-2010, but in an ATS pool of 150-200 folks that I do every year, I almost always finish in the top group, and have won the whole thing twice, while placing in the top 5 another two times)...

...But I do want to highlight particular plays I like too. Those I almost always will be putting something on, and thus will keep track of those units with the best-bet record.

Great to have you in here, Pooch! Hopefully I can make some money for myself and others and thus get some more folks to come say hello... And if not, well, there's always porn threads to start.

[Capybara]

I really need to attend to this thread sooner... such a last-minute guy...

Well, fortunately I got Bears +6 (-110, bookmaker, 1x) in as a play before everything got all wonky! Hope I'm not getting trapped now that it keeps shrinking...

Be back with more best bets and my Every Game ATS choices.

[poochiecollins]

That's right, Poochie, I don't throw money on every game, I just pick every game in here because I've noticed in the past that I almost always do very well overall, even while not necessarily properly selecting which games to play. So I wanted to show an overall record in here, as I hope it will continue to be very solid. (I haven't kept records pre-2010, but in an ATS pool of 150-200 folks that I do every year, I almost always finish in the top group, and have won the whole thing twice, while placing in the top 5 another two times)...

Oh I see, sounds like a good reason to pick every game and at least see what happens.

Gooo Cappy!

[Capybara]

Some more best-bet plays for 1:00 are Lions -7.5 and Jaguars +9.5, 1 unit each.

[Capybara]

Added Green Bay -10 as a Best Bet for 2 units.

Every Game ATS for 1:00:

Arizona +4.5
Chicago +6
Indianapolis +2
Green Bay -10
Jacksonville +9.5
Detroit -7.5
Oakland +4
Pittsburgh -13.5
Tampa Bay +1.5

[Capybara]

Oops, somehow Ravens -5.5 got deleted from that.

[Capybara]

Grabbing Dallas -3, -105 for 3 units.

[Capybara]

Additional 4:15 Every Game ATS picks:

Denver -3
San Diego +7
Houston -3

[poochiecollins]

Grabbing Dallas -3, -105 for 3 units.

I had this, too. The Dallas receiver couldn't have dove for that last yard to get the 6 in the overtime, hmm? Woe is us, haha.

[Capybara]

I had this, too. The Dallas receiver couldn't have dove for that last yard to get the 6 in the overtime, hmm? Woe is us, haha.

He friggin' HELD UP too!!!! He slightly slowed down I think to celebrate!!! Thanks, dumbass!!!!! At least we got the push though, thanks to Romo being a tough motherfukker and coming back in!

[Capybara]

Night game:

Falcons +3, -110 (SIA), 2 units.

[Capybara]

... with some ML too for good measure! (but don't track those in here...)

Need a solid finish here -- come on, Dirty Birds!

[Capybara]

Shoot, forgot to add this because placed it the other day, but I'm on the Falcons/Eagles under 49.5! Oh well, I'm sure it will come in easy now that I'll get no credit for it in here.

[poochiecollins]

Shoot, forgot to add this because placed it the other day, but I'm on the Falcons/Eagles under 49.5! Oh well, I'm sure it will come in easy now that I'll get no credit for it in here.

What Falcons/Eagles under? ;-)

[Capybara]

Every Game ATS pick:

Giants -6.5

[Capybara]

What Falcons/Eagles under? ;-)

Pooch, I like tonight's under too, but I'm afraid to ever play another one! What are overs hitting, like 85%?

[Capybara]

Just tallying up... slight improvement over Week 1 as at least we went over .500 ATS(!), finishing the week at 8-7-1. Best bets went 2-3-1 and interestingly were down the same exact units as week 1, 1.40. Ah well, a football season is a grind, especially after a lockout when we have even less of a clue what we're looking at. I take some satisfaction in the ATS improvement from Week 1 to Week 2 and plan to keep that moving up as we move forward. I will also be trying to keep my best bets to only those most confident plays, as I think 6 or 7 a week is prob a little high.

Interesting board for Week 3... At the moment I'm liking Ravens -3.5 and Bucs -1.

Be back soon...

[Capybara]

Denver +7
Detroit -3
Houston -3.5
Carolina -3.5
Miami -1
Buffalo +8
Philadelphia -7.5
Cincinnati -1.5
Baltimore -3.5
Kansas City +15
Oakland +3
Seattle +3
Tampa Bay -1
Chicago +3.5
Indianapolis +10.5

Sorry for lateness as usual, I suck. Next week in advance!!!

Best Bets are, as indicated earlier, Tampa Bay and Baltimore, in addition to Buffalo and Car/Jax under 43

[Capybara]

Forgot to indicate that the best bets are all one unit plays, and also added Cincy and Houston. And Houston above should be +3.5 obviously, not -3.5. Sorry for disorganized thread, I'm travelling this weekend.

[Capybara]

Denver +7
Detroit -3
Houston -3.5
Carolina -3.5
Miami -1
Buffalo +8
Philadelphia -7.5
Cincinnati -1.5
Baltimore -3.5
Kansas City +15
Oakland +3
Seattle +3
Tampa Bay -1
Chicago +3.5
Indianapolis +10.5

Sorry for lateness as usual, I suck. Next week in advance!!!

Best Bets are, as indicated earlier, Tampa Bay and Baltimore, in addition to Buffalo and Car/Jax under 43

Solid day, starting to make that move forward I talked about:

9-5-1 ATS, and 4-0 on those above best bets! Sadly I hastily added in Houston and Cincy to bring the day's BB record down to 4-2 (not following my own advice to keep it to my fave plays!), but still a very good day!

[Capybara]

Final ATS pick of the week:

Washington +3.5

No best bet on this game. (In actuality, the bet I like is to tease Washington and the Under and get +10 and Under 52.) My concern with this pick is that the game is gonna be Wash, Wash, Wash, and then suddenly Dallas in the end w the late cover. Just a feeling. But gotta take the points given the sheer number of key Dallas players who aren't at full strength. And the 'Skins defense is actually starting to gel nicely. I thought about a best-bet under but can't pull the trigger, there's just too many things that could kill that.

Hoping for a nice finish to the week...

[poochiecollins]

Capy, I recommend giving your total record to date at the end of each week. Also, for whatever my opinion counts, I think you could change the caption thing under your screen name -- it makes you look less cuddly. Congrats on this Week 3!

[khaden]

Are your best bet the plays you actually bet $$$ on?

[Capybara]

Are your best bet the plays you actually bet $$$ on?

Yup, pretty much. Although it's not 100% aligned. In other words, I might have additional plays I didn't put in the thread, and on occasion I won't have gotten a "best bet" in or something.

The idea of the thread is to pick EVERY game with the goal of achieving a nice percentage, and then also tracking my preferred plays (and actual action).

Thanks for stopping by!

[Capybara]

Capy, I recommend giving your total record to date at the end of each week. Also, for whatever my opinion counts, I think you could change the caption thing under your screen name -- it makes you look less cuddly. Congrats on this Week 3!

Yeah, Pooch I'll be doing updated records.

And haha, the caption actually goes with the avatar... it's a line that Hit Girl delivers in the movie Kick-Ass. And who you callin' cuddly? Only the ladies can call me cuddly.