2011 NFL Pro Picks with John Ryan

John Ryan · 10-21-11, 05:15 PM

Originally posted by bull07

Any pick for. 2nite ? Thanks

Yes, it is the college thread.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-football-betting/1335287-west-virginia-syracuse-john-ryan.html

I will be there at half time of BOTH games so check back there as well for possible half-time betting opportunities.

John Ryan · 10-21-11, 05:17 PM

Originally posted by JR007

how many unit's on Oklahoma, should I play John??

Oklahoma?

Play favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (OKLAHOMA) after gaining 6.25 or more yards-per-play in two consecutive games and with 8 offensive starters returning. 31-4 ATS for 89% winners since 1992.

John Ryan · 10-21-11, 05:24 PM

NFL Plays stand at 19-10 ATS for 65.5% ATS winners. 1-0 ATS with a 10* release and 1-0 with a 20* release.
5* play on the Minnesota Vikings over the Green Bay Packers

http://www.sbrforum.com/nfl-football/free-picks/packers-vikings-nfl-pick-a-21691/

5* Chicago Bears over the TB Bucs
http://www.sbrforum.com/nfl-football/free-picks/chicago-bears-vs-tampa-bay-buccaneers-a-21704/
5* Arizona over Pittsburgh

testertips · 10-21-11, 05:41 PM

John, what is the # your fading green bay against? i got the packers early at 7 1/2. would that still be a fade?

K2daL · 10-21-11, 05:41 PM

Like your picks except the Vikings. Thanks John!

John Ryan · 10-21-11, 05:47 PM

Originally posted by testertips

John, what is the # your fading green bay against? i got the packers early at 7 1/2. would that still be a fade?

wow, that would be a great line Packers minus 7 1/2. I have it opening at 10 1/2 and is now mostly nine points. So, yes, the more points the better right ?

John Ryan · 10-21-11, 05:48 PM

Originally posted by K2daL

Like your picks except the Vikings. Thanks John!

I am certain the Vikings play is a shocker, but I truly believe they will play very well against the Packers.

K2daL · 10-21-11, 06:06 PM

Originally posted by John Ryan

I am certain the Vikings play is a shocker, but I truly believe they will play very well against the Packers.

The Vikings is horrible defensively and offensively. I dont know whether Christian Ponder will be able to provide a spark & keeps it close to a one posession game. Having said that AP can certainly be a big factor in this game if he is able to run the ball & consume the clock to keep AR & company off the field. It disappointing that you have No Play on Panthers vs Skins matchup.

Mrecko21 · 10-21-11, 06:53 PM

Why Do you have Az over pitts?

fitguy67 · 10-22-11, 12:07 AM

John, I'm about to start tailing...i like to VERY RARELY bet more than 2% of roll on one game with ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM BET 5%...as i see your biggest bet so far is 20*...i'll define my * to be just 0.25% of roll...

am i being too much of a "super-chicken"?

wblgolfer59 · 10-22-11, 12:37 AM

Your vikings play is stupid, the only way it makes sense is you hope to get lucky and seem like a genius since the whole public is on the Pack....How could you possibly bet on a Rookie QB against the defending champs, where in your equation can you enter thoes facts. WVU 23 SRY 49...

upscope · 10-22-11, 01:04 AM

Originally posted by wblgolfer59

Your vikings play is stupid, the only way it makes sense is you hope to get lucky and seem like a genius since the whole public is on the Pack....How could you possibly bet on a Rookie QB against the defending champs, where in your equation can you enter thoes facts. WVU 23 SRY 49...

Guess he was hoping to get lucky while going 19-10 so far this yr as well huh?? Can you claim to be 19-10 so far this season because I sure can't.

Avenger · 10-22-11, 06:12 AM

~~Could you provide some reasons for the Vikings pick?~~

I can see why you picked the Cards (perfect let-down game for Steelers) and Bears/Bucs will be close but I like Bears too (for many reasons, offense clicking last game being the best) but I'm going to agree with everyone else, Vikings is a stupid pick.

Not trying to be an ass; thanks for all your write-ups, I'm trying to learn as much as I can. Maybe there's something you see in the Vikings/Packs game that the rest of us don't?

Nevermind, I clicked on the link. Gutsy call, BOL to you. Maybe I'm the blind 75%, but I can't see your system fitting into an elite team like the Packers and a bottom feeder like the Vikings. Vikings have a rookie QB and there's too many variable, one being nerves.
True, Packer's passing D is mediocre but if Vikings resort to the rushing game, it's over.
Not to mention, Packer's O will put up points.

Then again, what do I know. Again, I wish you luck and thanks for the writeups.

k13 · 10-22-11, 06:21 AM

These squares/noobs not understanding the Vikings pick is

Clamouring for picks but only if they make sense to them.

Avenger · 10-22-11, 06:34 AM

Originally posted by k13

These squares/noobs not understanding the Vikings pick is

Clamouring for picks but only if they make sense to them.

Whatever dude, thanks for your insightful post. this noob went 12-1 last week and posted some logical reasons why Vikings won't win Sunday.

Why don't you add to the discussion and give your reasons why 1-5 Vikings will win? And don't say RLM, because there was RLM for two previous packers games and they easily covered.

And I'm not clamoring for his picks. I clicked on this link because he's the laughingstock of CFB and I wanted to know why.

PickMeAwinner · 10-22-11, 10:18 AM

hey John

what do you think about : Clemson -10 , Wake Forest -4 , Kansas ST, - 11 , Temple -14

I have two 3 team parlays going on with these combinations, any thoughts?

omalley21 · 10-22-11, 10:20 AM

I like the Vikings pick. I was thinking the same thing. Ponder will surprise people.

JR007 · 10-22-11, 11:35 AM

Originally posted by John Ryan

Oklahoma?

Play favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (OKLAHOMA) after gaining 6.25 or more yards-per-play in two consecutive games and with 8 offensive starters returning. 31-4 ATS for 89% winners since 1992.

thanks, saw it in the edge newsletter

spike1519 · 10-22-11, 02:57 PM

Thank's for all the help and great advise John.

PickMeAwinner · 10-22-11, 07:37 PM

Wisconsin baby .... I hope so...

big cheyo · 10-22-11, 09:12 PM

hey i dont know about the bears, they barely flew in yesterday into europe that jetlag might affect them, but i like your other plays

calmeat · 10-22-11, 11:26 PM

out of the 3 plays you have posted my system agrees with ARIZ and CHI. It does not agree with the GB game though. My system has the packers winning by 10. It has PIT winning by 1 pt and CHI winning by 8. I think ill leave that GB game on the shelf then,

ItemB · 10-22-11, 11:46 PM

Are you going buy the opening lines or current lines? Thanks and good luck

16johnnymac · 10-23-11, 01:34 AM

Another boob ok? They got pounded!!!!!

upscope · 10-23-11, 05:10 AM

Many of you people act as if there's not a point spread in play. Obviously the Packers are a better team than the Vikings we all know that but if you want one reason why the Vikings might not be such a bad play after all how bout getting 10 points on your home field?? Ten points is alot in an NFL game & throw in the home field & that's good enough reason right there for me. Rookie QB or not.....

I'm not the biggest fan in the world of his Vikings play either but anytime you're getting 10 @ home it's always worth a look in my book & seldom "stupid" if you take it. If it's such a "stupid" play then go ahead & lay 10 on the road w/ the Packers??

gvo · 10-23-11, 08:32 AM

i'm much more comfortable with the super teaser
Chicago Bears -1½ +8½
Arizona Cardinals +4 (-105) +14
Minnesota Vikings +10½ (-115) +20½

GChild · 10-23-11, 10:14 AM

I don't understand why anyone would tease against the packers. They have lit up everyone this year. Not smart. My option

gvo · 10-23-11, 11:24 AM

actually if you teased against GB as part of a 10pt teaser you would be 5-1 on the season, thanks for your opinion.

John Ryan · 10-23-11, 11:31 AM

Originally posted by ItemB

Are you going buy the opening lines or current lines? Thanks and good luck

The plays are as listed and as a rule a modest line movement, even against me, has never prevented or changed my model projections. The model has a built-in seven point cushion so that if there are any adverse special team scores, I know that we can endure a play like that - that is completely unpredictable - and still be able to win ATS.

John Ryan · 10-23-11, 11:32 AM

Originally posted by spike1519

Thank's for all the help and great advise John.

No problem there Spike. I am glad that this has turned into a positive outlet for constructive sports handicapping. It makes us all better.

John Ryan · 10-23-11, 11:40 AM

NFL Plays stand at 19-10 ATS for 65.5% ATS winners. 1-0 ATS with a 10* release and 1-0 with a 20* release.
5* play on the Minnesota Vikings over the Green Bay Packers; current consensus line Vikings +10 points

5* Chicago Bears over the TB Bucs ; consensus line Bears favored by 2.

5* Arizona over Pittsburgh; Arizona plus four points.

There will be a 20* play released for tonight' Sunday NIGHT Football game. I will release this play 6:00 PM ET.

John Ryan · 10-23-11, 11:43 AM

I like Arizona since the beginning of the week. Fitzgerald will be a much bigger factor in the game plan. Kolb is a very accurate short route passer and getting the ball to Fitz in space will be a dominant goal. These may include crossing routes over the deep middle of the field or simple 'hot' read slants. Kolb is a very good ball control passer and this will minimize the Steeler pressure from their defensive front. Steelers cannot get caught in man coverage with Fitz and this will mandate that their safeties cannot always line up in a blitz look.

John Ryan · 10-23-11, 11:45 AM

The Arizona play grades out as a mirror image the of the Bucs defeating the Saints last week. I think that if they cover the spread they will also win the game. Playing the money line may be a compelling option.

John Ryan · 10-23-11, 11:47 AM

Roethlisberger has been sacked 18 times in just six games this season. The OL is now back to near complete healthy status, but they lack the practice reps and chemistry to perform well. I believe that the Cardinals can send pressure through the 'A' gap and force him into mistakes and throw aways.

John Ryan · 10-23-11, 11:51 AM

Originally posted by gvo

i'm much more comfortable with the super teaser
Chicago Bears -1½ +8½
Arizona Cardinals +4 (-105) +14
Minnesota Vikings +10½ (-115) +20½

I am not a big fan of any teaser, BUT I have to admit I do like this one quite a bit. I always look at these teasers and wonder what could possibly go wrong with the one team that causes the play to lose. I am very confident that the Vikings will not lose by 20 1/2 , nor the Bears lose at all, not Arizona get hammered by 14 or more points. I always remind myself that sports books offer Super Teasers for a reason and it is not for them to lose money.. laugh.. Good luck with this one.