2011 NFL Pro Picks with John Ryan

[John Ryan]

John been lurking for a while. First time trying to cap football and its def had it ups and downs. I created a sim as well and MIN was the pick in mine as well. I am starting to learn to use the SIM as a guide and then you have to look into other variables (Injuries etc.) My losses on my sim came from CAR, IND, HOU, NEP, NOS, MIN. Before the games i felt that HOU and MIN def would be losses. HOU with injuries and BALT coming off the bye. MIN was going against CHI who would want to rebound hard after that loss to DET. CAR, IND both had chances even at the end to cover but just fell short. Pats was a no play for me since my sim had them only has a 7 pt fav. and NOS was just a loss. Im starting to analyze the data more and hoping i can find something that will help with being on the right side of things. Thanks and keep up the good work

Good stuff. What is the sim based on?

[John Ryan]

Jets are keeping them in the game. If I had jets minus the points 17-6 makes me very nervous

[calmeat]

Good stuff. What is the sim based on?

Based soley on stats of previous games, passing yards vs passing yards allowed, same with rushing, TDs, punts, turnovers ect. but like i said injuries, new acquisitions, and other variables need to be accounted for, just havent figured out some of them.

[wblgolfer59]

John, I took cincy and they won though they really should not have....I am taking the Jets tonight, its a home game and Miami is brutal who knows who is even playing qb for them....I think Ryan is gonnna have them fired up tonight and the Jets D that has been weaker this year but still is strong will look more like the old jets D vs a weak team with not great offensive capabilities, good recievers but the corners will shut them down. I am thinking about a 27-10 final

Pretty sure that is exactly what happened.

[vividjohn45]

I dont find anything wrong with posting plays. Im pretty sure John doesn't mind either. This is Johns thread but we all are trying to work together and become a better cappers!
STL +14
Steelers -12.5
49ers +4
Cinci -6.5
Bill$ +4
OAK -6.5
PATS -6

These are my picks for today,
I need help picking the best 3 so I can Parlay, any ideas?

thanks for ur bettering picking skillz. now we are getting it done, bro.











bettering one's picking skillz.












picking for dogs.






parlay piks






piking threads to pik in.













thankx for the piks . pik me a winner. always looking forward to ur improving in john's thread.


---------------------------

hi john!

[wblgolfer59]

I got the packers at 7....I mean Ponder a rookie qb, they generally throw 3 int's against the best qb in the world right now....The packers take this one by 20 plus, lock of the century....Unless AP has a huge day and its Day one story of Ponder future HOF and he tells the story of this game during his speech after his first ballot speech....But I like to bet in reality...Thoughts

[Greyraptor]

I got the packers at 7....I mean Ponder a rookie qb, they generally throw 3 int's against the best qb in the world right now....The packers take this one by 20 plus, lock of the century....Unless AP has a huge day and its Day one story of Ponder future HOF and he tells the story of this game during his speech after his first ballot speech....But I like to bet in reality...Thoughts

I like the Pack at -7 as well. I figure them to stack the box against AP and MAKE Ponder beat them through the air. GL with the game!

[ChiCubs825]

Whats the move tonight for FIU ASU?

[jjaycuny]

Whats the move tonight for FIU ASU?

FIU +3

http://www.sbrforum.com/handicappers/55-john-ryan.aspx

[John Ryan]

yep, FI is the play hopefully... What a terrible game if you were playing a side last night. 100 interception return and neither team looked well at all. Sort of like what I expect out of the Bears/Bucs game this Sunday.

[John Ryan]

FIU +3
http://www.sbrforum.com/handicappers/55-john-ryan.aspx

Thanks for the 'secretarial' service providing the link for the CFB play. I appreciate that

[John Ryan]

Pretty sure that is exactly what happened.

Great call.. really good call. that was an ugly game. period.

[John Ryan]

Based soley on stats of previous games, passing yards vs passing yards allowed, same with rushing, TDs, punts, turnovers ect. but like i said injuries, new acquisitions, and other variables need to be accounted for, just havent figured out some of them.

I use back propagation techniques used in neural network based simulators. Mine learns from the past games of 15 seasons and then applies a specific weighting of all variables to the current card. I may provide a brief discussion of back propagation in the morning.

[kababkhan]

I use back propagation techniques used in neural network based simulators. Mine learns from the past games of 15 seasons and then applies a specific weighting of all variables to the current card. I may provide a brief discussion of back propagation in the morning.

That's brilliant...I was looking at using some machine learning myself...will aim for fuzzy logic.

[kababkhan]

Or maybe even some markov chains...the transition probabilities can be learned from previous games, and the whole game can be simulated effectively I think.

[Mully85]

I use back propagation techniques used in neural network based simulators. Mine learns from the past games of 15 seasons and then applies a specific weighting of all variables to the current card. I may provide a brief discussion of back propagation in the morning.

Damn it....I wish I would have listened in college....

[John Ryan]

Or maybe even some markov chains...the transition probabilities can be learned from previous games, and the whole game can be simulated effectively I think.

I think that is an excellent start..

[John Ryan]

Just to recap. the record is 19-10 ATS for 65.5% winners. I have won a 10* and a 20* play that is included in this record. So, 10 and 20* plays are 2-0 ATS and 5* graded plays sport a 17-10 ATS mark for 63% ATS winners.

[gavin]

not worth paying for

[jjaycuny]

not worth paying for

Last time I checked, you don't have to pay to access this thread.

[joeytunes]

how did u build your model?what was your start..what program?

I use back propagation techniques used in neural network based simulators. Mine learns from the past games of 15 seasons and then applies a specific weighting of all variables to the current card. I may provide a brief discussion of back propagation in the morning.

[TMoney33]

Damn it....I wish I would have listened in college....

LOL, that's the same way I feel when I see something like that. That stuff seems to be beyond my grasp, but it's something I would really like learn.

[samson smith]

My name is John Ryan and I will be providing my 5* Monster Plays and an occasional rare 20* Lock Release here on this thread. I have been handicapping all sports for 18 years and have done particularly well with the NFL. You may have seen me on SBR and already be familiar with my work, research, and methodologies. This season I will be providing picks with extensive research that shows you why I am on a given play. This will undoubtedly promote strong discussions and debate, but hopefully this will be learning experience for all of you. I often think of the movie Wall Street where Michael Douglas (Gorden Gekko) states that 'Information is the most powerful commodity I know". Well, I fully agree with that simple fact and my goal is to provide winning information to you for the NFL regular season.

NFL is a sports organizations in the United States. They hold the teams that play professional football. It promises the lucrative profits without the need to exert much effort. I have studied your information regarding the NFL betting tips. I think it is so good for coming NFL session. Thanks

[Greyraptor]

not worth paying for

If you are paying for anything by viewing these threads, that is your own fault. This forum is entirely free of charge and John is providing his insight pro bono like so many other cappers do here. You can either choose to tail or fade, it is up to you.

[John Ryan]

how did u build your model?what was your start..what program?

I started from scratch developing a neural mode that would project the price action of foreign currencies while I was employed as a Chief Currency Strategist on Wall Street. After 200 and 9-11, I began focusing my life on things that really matter and not chasing more and more money. So, I had started building the sports model in 1999 and have been tweaking here and there ever since. I should have some time to dedicate to what back propagation is and explain it in a simplistic manner. It is similar to buying a Ferrari. You know that is a fast car with a well-engineered engine, but it is not important to know how to perform maintenance or fully understand how the engined is built. So, we will start with the foundations and work from there and see where the discussion leads.

[ZOLAS]

John,

First, I want to thank you for all the effort you’re putting into the thread. I just finished reading it, and really like the fact you obviously have a strong mathematics, more specifically stochastics and probability, background applied to investments. I am studying price action and general technical analysis in the hopes of doing some currency investing. I’m no expert in handicapping or investing, but they seem to be very similar endeavors.

I had a few questions…

1. Does a neural back propogation model learn over time the proper weight to place on variables, and change those weights in a dynamic way over time?

2. I’m interested in hearing your philosophy on money management. If I limited my bets to say 1-4% of my entire (set aside not living expense money) bankroll per bet at the goal of say 57-60% win rate, would that keep my “risk of ruin” below 5%. Or, should I invest the time to learn a more exact betting percentage such as the “Kelly” criterion to maximize betting advantage? Do you suggest lowering the betting percentage as your bankroll grows? Or, can you just suggest a percentage that is safe, but can allow one to build a bankroll?

3. When will you post this week’s selections on the thread?


ZOLAS

[ZOLAS]

John,

First, I want to thank you for all the effort you’re putting into the thread. I just finished reading it, and really like the fact you obviously have a strong mathematics, more specifically stochastics and probability, background applied to investments. I am studying price action and general technical analysis in the hopes of doing some currency investing. I’m no expert in handicapping or investing, but they seem to be very similar endeavors.

I had a few questions…

1. Does a neural back propogation model learn over time the proper weight to place on variables, and change those weights in a dynamic way over time?

2. I’m interested in hearing your philosophy on money management. If I limited my bets to say 1-4% of my entire (set aside not living expense money) bankroll per bet at the goal of say 57-60% win rate, would that keep my “risk of ruin” below 5%. Or, should I invest the time to learn a more exact betting percentage such as the “Kelly” criterion to maximize betting advantage? Do you suggest lowering the betting percentage as your bankroll grows? Or, can you just suggest a percentage that is safe, but can allow one to build a bankroll?

3. When will you post this week’s selections on the thread?


ZOLAS

[bassaholicman]

hey John,

thx for the nfl picks this season. I've checked out your pay site and i'm interested in joining for the year. Couple of questions - your past results tabs don't show any real past results - are you going to list your past results in excel form showing picks, units wagered, price, outcomes etc. Alot of people claim to bat .600-.700 but don't actually disclose full past results - some show only past 2 months, etc. picking hot streaks to promote their service. Also, are you available for premium members to answer occasional questions? - i couldn't find anywhere to send an email or communicate. thx in advance.

[bassaholicman]

hey John,

thx for the nfl picks this season. I've checked out your pay site and i'm interested in joining for the year. Couple of questions - your past results tabs don't show any real past results - are you going to list your past results in excel form showing picks, units wagered, price, outcomes etc. Alot of people claim to bat .600-.700 but don't actually disclose full past results - some show only past 2 months, etc. picking hot streaks to promote their service. Also, are you available for premium members to answer occasional questions? - i couldn't find anywhere to send an email or communicate. thx in advance.

[John Ryan]

John,

First, I want to thank you for all the effort you’re putting into the thread. I just finished reading it, and really like the fact you obviously have a strong mathematics, more specifically stochastics and probability, background applied to investments. I am studying price action and general technical analysis in the hopes of doing some currency investing. I’m no expert in handicapping or investing, but they seem to be very similar endeavors.

I had a few questions…

1. Does a neural back propogation model learn over time the proper weight to place on variables, and change those weights in a dynamic way over time?

2. I’m interested in hearing your philosophy on money management. If I limited my bets to say 1-4% of my entire (set aside not living expense money) bankroll per bet at the goal of say 57-60% win rate, would that keep my “risk of ruin” below 5%. Or, should I invest the time to learn a more exact betting percentage such as the “Kelly” criterion to maximize betting advantage? Do you suggest lowering the betting percentage as your bankroll grows? Or, can you just suggest a percentage that is safe, but can allow one to build a bankroll?

3. When will you post this week’s selections on the thread?


ZOLAS

Thanks for the questions:
Yes, the model does learn from the past, however it is weighted to the most recent seasons to reflect any evolution of the sport.

I think your money management levels are quite conservative, but appropriate. The risk of ruin, as you out it, would be negligible. After I release this week's NFL picks I will address what I would do to increase your risk/reward profile. Tghis can be used for anyone on this thread as well.

[John Ryan]

If you are paying for anything by viewing these threads, that is your own fault. This forum is entirely free of charge and John is providing his insight pro bono like so many other cappers do here. You can either choose to tail or fade, it is up to you.

Well said, by the way. I will be releasing the 5* NFL plays later today.

[JR007]

how many unit's on Oklahoma, should I play John??

[bull07]

Any pick for. 2nite ? Thanks

[PickMeAwinner]

Hey guys I've been away for a few day but was able to capitalize on last NCAAF game last night.

Im feeling lucky today, what do you guys think of my parlay tonight?

Rutgers -1 & West Virginia -14

[The War Room]

I like both plays pickmeawinner