2011 NFL Pro Picks with John Ryan

**John Ryan** · 10-23-11, 11:55 AM

Originally posted by PickMeAwinner

Wisconsin baby .... I hope so...

hate to say it, but I had MSU and they were one of the weekly articles I wrote. I will add the links throughout the week on my CFB thread. Each week I focus on one game and provide detailed analysis on the side and total of the game. Will admit, I had West Virginia, which was one of the worst calls i think I have had in maybe 10 years. yet, I am reminded, that it is just one losing game... much like if the Texas Rangers win tonight the series is all tied at 2-2 and no matter how remarkable Pujols historic night was, it adds up to just one loss for the Rangers. I did issue a ply on the Cardinals to win the series, but there is a LONG LONG way to go on that one. Good luck to everyone.

This week's CFB link is:

**polishkielbasa10** · 10-23-11, 11:59 AM

lets do this!!!!

**august_** · 10-23-11, 12:12 PM

Originally posted by John Ryan

NFL Plays stand at 19-10 ATS for 65.5% ATS winners. 1-0 ATS with a 10* release and 1-0 with a 20* release.
5* play on the Minnesota Vikings over the Green Bay Packers; current consensus line Vikings +10 points

5* Chicago Bears over the TB Bucs ; consensus line Bears favored by 2.

5* Arizona over Pittsburgh; Arizona plus four points.

There will be a 20* play released for tonight' Sunday NIGHT Football game. I will release this play 6:00 PM ET.

could you release it a little earlier for your european followers?

**5mike5** · 10-23-11, 12:17 PM

john thanks for ur help and analysis again this week...cant wait to see the *20 play for SNF

**my6sen** · 10-23-11, 12:21 PM

that will be colt 20********** bet all of it

**5mike5** · 10-23-11, 12:23 PM

Originally posted by my6sen

that will be colt 20********** bet all of it

ill wait and get it from john...but thanks

**PickMeAwinner** · 10-23-11, 01:13 PM

Originally posted by 5mike5

ill wait and get it from john...but thanks

LOL

**PickMeAwinner** · 10-23-11, 01:16 PM

Originally posted by John Ryan

hate to say it, but I had MSU and they were one of the weekly articles I wrote. I will add the links throughout the week on my CFB thread. Each week I focus on one game and provide detailed analysis on the side and total of the game. Will admit, I had West Virginia, which was one of the worst calls i think I have had in maybe 10 years. yet, I am reminded, that it is just one losing game... much like if the Texas Rangers win tonight the series is all tied at 2-2 and no matter how remarkable Pujols historic night was, it adds up to just one loss for the Rangers. I did issue a ply on the Cardinals to win the series, but there is a LONG LONG way to go on that one. Good luck to everyone.

This week's CFB link is:

I must have missed that article, I've was a toss up between Wisconsin or Stanford, I just made a wrong last min decision. Its all good, Stanford just confirmed that they are for REAL.

This was my 1st week in NCAAF ending with a negative, by a lil so I consider it a descent day still

**PlatinumBerg** · 10-23-11, 01:34 PM

Originally posted by John Ryan

I am not a big fan of any teaser, BUT I have to admit I do like this one quite a bit. I always look at these teasers and wonder what could possibly go wrong with the one team that causes the play to lose. I am very confident that the Vikings will not lose by 20 1/2 , nor the Bears lose at all, not Arizona get hammered by 14 or more points. I always remind myself that sports books offer Super Teasers for a reason and it is not for them to lose money.. laugh.. Good luck with this one.

John, you can say the same thing about any bet that "good sports books" offer. They offer it for a reason, and it isn't for them to lose money. Based on this logic, isn't every single bet a losing bet in the long run?

**PlatinumBerg** · 10-23-11, 01:41 PM

Originally posted by John Ryan

NFL Plays stand at 19-10 ATS for 65.5% ATS winners. 1-0 ATS with a 10* release and 1-0 with a 20* release.
5* play on the Minnesota Vikings over the Green Bay Packers; current consensus line Vikings +10 points
5* Chicago Bears over the TB Bucs ; consensus line Bears favored by 2.
5* Arizona over Pittsburgh; Arizona plus four points.

There will be a 20* play released for tonight' Sunday NIGHT Football game. I will release this play 6:00 PM ET.

John,

I am excited to see what this 20* play is. If a typical 5* play has at least a 7 point cushion, how big of a cushion does a 20* play have? If the bet is 4 times as large, would the cushion be 4 times as large as well? Does this mean that your 20* play has a 28 point cushion?

I still remember the last 20* you posted in which the play won because of a backdoor cover.

**5mike5** · 10-23-11, 02:08 PM

who cares "how" it covered it was a win...i doubt any game has a 28pt cushion just using pure common sense

**spike1519** · 10-23-11, 02:20 PM

Originally posted by John Ryan

NFL Plays stand at 19-10 ATS for 65.5% ATS winners. 1-0 ATS with a 10* release and 1-0 with a 20* release.
5* play on the Minnesota Vikings over the Green Bay Packers; current consensus line Vikings +10 points
5* Chicago Bears over the TB Bucs ; consensus line Bears favored by 2.
5* Arizona over Pittsburgh; Arizona plus four points.

There will be a 20* play released for tonight' Sunday NIGHT Football game. I will release this play 6:00 PM ET.

is there still a 20* play this evening or did I miss it in the forum somewhere? also would welcome thoughts about Oakland against the Chiefs Oakland coming off a not so bad week against the bill's scoring 35 where the Chief's scored only 7 against the bills as well as being 5-1-1 ATS in last 7 games but is 5-11 against K.c in last 16 games also Oakland is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Kansas City. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing at home against Kansas City. you think theres an opportunity here for a possible under bet or even a straight win by Oakland today?

**5mike5** · 10-23-11, 02:27 PM

john is releasing the 20* play at 6pm on the SNF game for tonight

**Urbanwildlife** · 10-23-11, 03:05 PM

We will see what he says, but I am going ahead and taking New Orleans at -14, with it being a Sunday night game in the Super Dome, the Saints coming off a loss, Indianapolis starting an inexperienced quarterback making his first appearance in the Super Dome, and the Colts having several key players injured.

**nite_capper** · 10-23-11, 03:33 PM

thanks for the bears win. sweated it out a bit at the end, but a needed win for me.

**Creative303** · 10-23-11, 03:42 PM

Thanks for the Bears win. Easy money.

**ZOLAS** · 10-23-11, 04:05 PM

Thanks for the picks John! Don't forget to give that betting size and bankroll advice to help us exploit your picks as you mentioned you would in a previous post.

Chicago W
Vikings looking good
Cardinals looking iffy

I'd take 2-3 every week if I could get it!

Looking forward to the 20 star pick, does 20* mean bet it 4x a regular 5*, or some smaller multiplier?

ZOLAS

**RingoStar** · 10-23-11, 04:21 PM

6:00 pm in EEUU means too late for european people...

**jjaycuny** · 10-23-11, 04:39 PM

For those who don't know, he already released the pick.

SBR Forum - Sports Betting Talk - Sportsbook Review Forum

http://www.sbrforum.com/handicappers/55-john-ryan.aspx

Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.

Indianapolis/New Orleans 'under'

**my6sen** · 10-23-11, 04:46 PM

he pik ten too

**Urbanwildlife** · 10-23-11, 04:48 PM

Thank you jjaycuny. I took it for a dime to go along with my 2 dime bet on the Saints so let's take the stroll to the pay window!

**John Ryan** · 10-23-11, 05:02 PM

Originally posted by ZOLAS

Thanks for the picks John! Don't forget to give that betting size and bankroll advice to help us exploit your picks as you mentioned you would in a previous post.

Chicago W
Vikings looking good
Cardinals looking iffy

I'd take 2-3 every week if I could get it!

Looking forward to the 20 star pick, does 20* mean bet it 4x a regular 5*, or some smaller multiplier?

ZOLAS

No it would mean a 4x amount, but if you are already betting a sizable amount with the 5* only make it double.

**John Ryan** · 10-23-11, 05:03 PM

As some of you may have seen already, the play has been posted and here is the link. It is a 20* UNDER Saints/Colts.

SBR Forum - Sports Betting Talk - Sportsbook Review Forum

http://www.sbrforum.com/nfl-football/free-picks/colts-vs-saints-nfl-pick-a-21719/

Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.

See what you think of the research supporting the play. Thanks

**John Ryan** · 10-23-11, 05:03 PM

Originally posted by jjaycuny

For those who don't know, he already released the pick.

SBR Forum - Sports Betting Talk - Sportsbook Review Forum

http://www.sbrforum.com/handicappers/55-john-ryan.aspx

Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.

Indianapolis/New Orleans 'under'

Thanks for posting the play.

**Urbanwildlife** · 10-23-11, 05:13 PM

Thank you John for all the info.

**MakeitRain** · 10-23-11, 05:18 PM

I'm new here but I am going to trail you on this

**illios** · 10-23-11, 05:30 PM

John, If you were to pick a side, what side would you lean to? colts or saints

**PickMeAwinner** · 10-23-11, 05:33 PM

Where is Ronald McDonald @ I wanna give him a High Five cause I'M LOVING IT!

Thanks JOHN

**Mully85** · 10-23-11, 05:42 PM

John, when you say in your report that your sports simulation shows a "high probability" that the score in the Saints game will go under 48...what is the actual probability you are coming up with? Thank You.

**jjaycuny** · 10-23-11, 05:49 PM

Originally posted by Urbanwildlife

Thank you jjaycuny. I took it for a dime to go along with my 2 dime bet on the Saints so let's take the stroll to the pay window!

Let's cash it

**Badboyz8** · 10-23-11, 05:53 PM

Under it is, good luck

**Urbanwildlife** · 10-23-11, 05:54 PM

@jjaycuny
We will!

**John Ryan** · 10-23-11, 05:58 PM

Originally posted by PlatinumBerg

John, you can say the same thing about any bet that "good sports books" offer. They offer it for a reason, and it isn't for them to lose money. Based on this logic, isn't every single bet a losing bet in the long run?

No, stastically, teasers are harder to hit adn most charge 20% vig. Parlays are obvioulsy harder to hit, but at the payouts are still below what the statistical probabilities would be for them. betting one game and one game at a time is the method I use. Why do you think they call them teasers? laugh..

**John Ryan** · 10-23-11, 06:15 PM

Originally posted by Mully85

John, when you say in your report that your sports simulation shows a "high probability" that the score in the Saints game will go under 48...what is the actual probability you are coming up with? Thank You.

Over the years of I have been doing this I have found that NOT providing the percentage keeps clients from wagering beyond their means or getting that 'go for it' metality. I will, however, tell you that it is 89% probability. That also means it has an 11% probability of losing.. The whole key to winning with my methodology is continue betting the same amount per * unit play and minimize the 'emotional' part of the betting decision. Hope this helps

**John Ryan** · 10-23-11, 06:16 PM

Originally posted by jjaycuny

Let's cash it

Thanks. and just for those - my opinion only - tease the Saints and the under. Suggestion only.