Betterbizness' 2014 CFL Thoughts

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  • BetterBizness
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 05-20-06
    • 5737

    #456
    I really believe the 2H slows down... then again... Glad I didn't bet the first half ...

    3x Under 26.5 Mon/Tor
    Comment
    • BetterBizness
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 05-20-06
      • 5737

      #457
      wow did we get hosed on the under with just seconds left... then again, with nothing on the line, they could have totally screwed us going for two and hitting.. so maybe we just let it be and take the 6 units...
      Comment
      • BetterBizness
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 05-20-06
        • 5737

        #458
        Watching this show.. "Extra Yard: Inside the Argos"... Man they can make ANYONE look good... with that said, it is produced well... and this episode was about Week 1 where the Argo's won in Calgary... This show wasn't so much reminding me that the Argo's are much of anything, but really, how BAD Calgary is... I think this may have just inspired a couple of more "xx's" unto Hamilton....
        Comment
        • Dharmonize
          SBR MVP
          • 10-10-10
          • 1991

          #459
          Let´s cash Montreal, sometimes it´s as easy as it gets Too bad the under didn´t come through. Nice profit anyway, looking forward to tomorrow! G´night, everyone!
          Comment
          • TwoWays
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 03-24-10
            • 13145

            #460
            There are always breaks in ever game, Betterbiz. You got unlucky for the whole game total, but got lucky on the half-time total because of an goal-line turnover by the Alouettes in the second half.
            Comment
            • BetterBizness
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 05-20-06
              • 5737

              #461
              Originally posted by TwoWays
              There are always breaks in ever game, Betterbiz. You got unlucky for the whole game total, but got lucky on the half-time total because of an goal-line turnover by the Alouettes in the second half.
              Exactly... and in the end Barker decides he wants to go for 2 and hits, and I lose it all... so as much as I like to complain, in the end I'm happy with the result despite being so close to getting all of it... I'm glad I didn't get NONE of it...
              Comment
              • BetterBizness
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 05-20-06
                • 5737

                #462
                I'm thining that as a pretty much straight up call, and Coach Reed back where he started... Good possibility that last wee kwas the "breather" game from the Esks, and they STILL won... not convinced yet, but I think this maybe a good spot here with good value in picking a SU winner...
                Comment
                • memo99
                  SBR MVP
                  • 01-08-10
                  • 2368

                  #463
                  Esks win a TD
                  Comment
                  • Scully
                    SBR MVP
                    • 09-21-06
                    • 1276

                    #464
                    Initial thought: leaning on Bombers.
                    Comment
                    • BetterBizness
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 05-20-06
                      • 5737

                      #465
                      Originally posted by memo99
                      Esks win a TD
                      i know you're going to the game tonight Memo, are you a bombers fan?
                      Comment
                      • BetterBizness
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 05-20-06
                        • 5737

                        #466
                        Edmonton -1 @ Winnipeg O/U 50

                        Edmonton 2011 Past Results (Most Recent First)
                        Tor 25@Edm 26 - O50
                        Edm 24@Cal 19 – U50
                        BC 17@Edm 33 – O50
                        Ham 10@Edm 28 – U50
                        Edm 42@Sask 28 – O50

                        Winnipeg Past Results (Most Recent First)
                        BC 20@Win 25 U50
                        Win 33@Tor 24 – O50
                        Cal 21@Win 20 – U50
                        Tor 16@Win 22 – U50
                        Win 24@Ham 16 - U50

                        Head to Head 2010 1-1
                        (W4@Win) Win 47-21, (W18@Edm) Edm 16-13

                        Who would have thought 6 weeks in that Edmonton @ Winnipeg was going to be a battle of 5-0 vs 4-1? Well I’ve been thinking about this one all week… Pretty clear that Big Offense Vs Big Defense is the marketing matchup in this game. That’s for TSN to sell viewers… What I really think this game will be however, is can the Eskimo Defense stop the Winnipeg Offense? To me that is the intangible… Lets say the Esks are held to … 24 points... Then what? Can the Winnipeg Offense score 27? Needless to say, I’m leaning under in this game, but I’m also saying that Coach Reed, a defensive Specialist once Coaching the Winnipeg Defense, is going to bring the gameplan to make this game a game of field position.

                        Notice I say, Coach Reed is going to dictate the gameplan. I firmly believe, and with bias, that the Eskimos are going to dictate how this game is to be played. I believe QB Ray is going to do what he does best and follow the aggressive play calling of O Coordinator Crandell.

                        I see the Esks going to go 6-0 for the first time in 50 years. I say that the big factor here is that the Esks had their “rest” last week, and STILL came out ahead. Of course, this is personal bias in the way of what some may consider lack of common sense. But Winnipeg hasn’t had this type of pressure to perform, since what, the 80’s? Edmonton is back in the spotlight where they like to be, and I believe this pickem is essentially a gift from the oddsmakers. Lets see if I’m right.

                        7x Edmonton -1
                        2x Edm/Win Under
                        Comment
                        • BetterBizness
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 05-20-06
                          • 5737

                          #467
                          Saskatchewan @ BC -3.5 O/U 53.5

                          Saskatchewan 2011 Past Results (Most Recent First)
                          Cal 22@Sask 18 - U53.5
                          Sask 27@Mon 24 – U53.5
                          Sask 3@Ham 33 – U53.5
                          Mon 39@Sask 25 – O53.5
                          Edm 42@Sask 28 – O53.5

                          BC 2011 Past Results (Most Recent First)
                          BC 20@ Win 25 U53.5
                          Ham 39@BC 31 – O53.5
                          BC 17@Edm 33 - U53.5
                          Cal 34@BC 32 – O53.5
                          BC 26@Mon 30 – O53.5

                          Head to Head 2010 – Saskatchewan 3-1 (Includes Playoff)
                          (W2@BC) Sask 27-18, (W7@Sask) Sask 37-17, (W18@BC) BC 23-17, (West Semi-Final@Sask) Sask 41-38

                          How long can I stay off the BC train? As long as it takes!!!

                          How can a team that hasn’t won a game, and was 1-3 vs their opponent last year be OVER a 3 point favorite. It feels like the oddsmakers are “Chasing” that the Lions will win.. EVENTUALLY… but really… what are the indicators? They played a couple of good teams tough for a while?

                          IF that was the case, so did the Riders, losing last week to Calgary, and BEATING the Al’s 2 weeks ago… really, the Riders are 1-4, but similar to the Lions, shouldn’t be. So should we dub this the “we shouldn’t be here bowl?”

                          Big thing I see with the Riders are that their Defense is actually IMPROVING, despite not getting the results. I thought last week Calgary was ready to explode, but just couldn’t. The week before they play a great game against the Als… In the Meanwhile BC is just rolling downhill, without anything to grab on to. I believe the Riders getting a field goal in this game is a huge advantage, and it literally may come down to the last kick. I Still don’t see BC getting it together, and after 5 games, LOOK like a defeated team.

                          The bottom line is that there is NO WAY I’m giving an 0-5 team, that LOOKS like an 0-5 team, -3.5 ..

                          4x Riders +3.5
                          1x BC/Sask Under 53.5
                          Comment
                          • BetterBizness
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 05-20-06
                            • 5737

                            #468
                            Small Parlay

                            1x Edm -1 + Sask +3.5
                            Comment
                            • DrSize
                              SBR MVP
                              • 10-22-10
                              • 1027

                              #469
                              Love the write ups BB. I was never gifted in english and writing so I avoid it at all costs. I only post my plays here for discussion...not trying to highjack your thread by any means

                              I'm rolling with Winny +1 and U50(SI) and Sask +3.5 and O53(5 Dimes)
                              Comment
                              • DrSize
                                SBR MVP
                                • 10-22-10
                                • 1027

                                #470
                                I have found for totals that line movement or lack there of has been hitting pretty constantly with who the books/money are siding with.

                                55% of bets on Over in Edm/Winny and Pinny and 5 Dimes have moved the line to 49 1/2 from 50
                                In the late game 75% on the Under and line has stayed at 53.5 pretty much across the board with the exception of 5 Dimes dropping it to 53.

                                Just some food for thought. Sides this strategy hasn't been hitting as high. For example over 60% was on Montreal and the line moved from -5 to -4 and we all know what happened there...luckily I didn't over think it and was on Mtl big.

                                Tonight the Winny/Edm is pretty split with no line movement
                                69% on BC and movement from -3 to -3.5 pretty much across the board
                                Comment
                                • Dharmonize
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 10-10-10
                                  • 1991

                                  #471
                                  Thanx for the write-ups, BB. Great job again! I´m passing on the first game, but really like Sask ML tonight. GL all!
                                  Comment
                                  • BetterBizness
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 05-20-06
                                    • 5737

                                    #472
                                    Originally posted by DrSize
                                    Love the write ups BB. I was never gifted in english and writing so I avoid it at all costs. I only post my plays here for discussion...not trying to highjack your thread by any means

                                    I'm rolling with Winny +1 and U50(SI) and Sask +3.5 and O53(5 Dimes)
                                    Your plays are great Doc... but thanks for the compliment....
                                    Comment
                                    • BetterBizness
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 05-20-06
                                      • 5737

                                      #473
                                      Originally posted by DrSize
                                      I have found for totals that line movement or lack there of has been hitting pretty constantly with who the books/money are siding with.

                                      55% of bets on Over in Edm/Winny and Pinny and 5 Dimes have moved the line to 49 1/2 from 50
                                      In the late game 75% on the Under and line has stayed at 53.5 pretty much across the board with the exception of 5 Dimes dropping it to 53.

                                      Just some food for thought. Sides this strategy hasn't been hitting as high. For example over 60% was on Montreal and the line moved from -5 to -4 and we all know what happened there...luckily I didn't over think it and was on Mtl big.

                                      Tonight the Winny/Edm is pretty split with no line movement
                                      69% on BC and movement from -3 to -3.5 pretty much across the board
                                      Great comments on the movement....
                                      Comment
                                      • BetterBizness
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 05-20-06
                                        • 5737

                                        #474
                                        Originally posted by Dharmonize
                                        Thanx for the write-ups, BB. Great job again! I´m passing on the first game, but really like Sask ML tonight. GL all!
                                        I know Dharm... that's probably the right play... Great discipline...
                                        Comment
                                        • BetterBizness
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 05-20-06
                                          • 5737

                                          #475
                                          Going to pass on the 2H in this game... Although the early steam is all on Winnipeg and Under.. Ugh! Was actually hoping Pierce wouldn't score his FOURTY EIGHT yard run and try and middle the second half...never mind...
                                          Comment
                                          • DrSize
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 10-22-10
                                            • 1027

                                            #476
                                            Let's hope this game slows down so we can cash the under. Gonna be close
                                            Comment
                                            • tension
                                              SBR High Roller
                                              • 08-11-10
                                              • 192

                                              #477
                                              I had to go to work today so I didnt catch your plays BB

                                              I did manage to make a couple plays just from my gut and both were total opposite to yours, I hate when I'm on the other end. I think for Esks to cover now it has to go over
                                              Comment
                                              • Dharmonize
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 10-10-10
                                                • 1991

                                                #478
                                                Esks falling apart. You gotta hope for them to have a great 4th q!
                                                Comment
                                                • TwoWays
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 03-24-10
                                                  • 13145

                                                  #479
                                                  Eskimo coach should have challenged that catch in the third quarter by the Bomber receiver. The ball hit the ground.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • DrSize
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 10-22-10
                                                    • 1027

                                                    #480
                                                    That was a sweat but under comes through for us. Now let's go Sask
                                                    Comment
                                                    • BetterBizness
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 05-20-06
                                                      • 5737

                                                      #481
                                                      Well that sucks as a fan of the Eskimos and a fan of a man who bet them and going up 10-0...

                                                      Alas... Sure hoping the Riders show up...
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Sniperpicks
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 01-14-11
                                                        • 4717

                                                        #482
                                                        I took BC on 1st half -2

                                                        just playing the home team for some late fun

                                                        wishing BRUCE was playing but he is not active from what i read
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Dharmonize
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 10-10-10
                                                          • 1991

                                                          #483
                                                          And Sask not looking good either... I´m off to bed...
                                                          Comment
                                                          • BetterBizness
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 05-20-06
                                                            • 5737

                                                            #484
                                                            Looks like BC is a lock... sorry boys tough night...
                                                            Comment
                                                            • BetterBizness
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 05-20-06
                                                              • 5737

                                                              #485
                                                              Originally posted by Sniperpicks
                                                              I took BC on 1st half -2

                                                              just playing the home team for some late fun

                                                              wishing BRUCE was playing but he is not active from what i read
                                                              Dancing Fn
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Sniperpicks
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 01-14-11
                                                                • 4717

                                                                #486
                                                                took a 2h over 26 , small play , way less than what i just cashed
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Dharmonize
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 10-10-10
                                                                  • 1991

                                                                  #487
                                                                  Oh, terrible night yesterday! I avoided the first game only to lose 2 u on the second, as I took both Sask ml and the spread. Looks like when you´re destined to lose, nothing can stop that. Need a little comeback today. I´d personally go huge on Galgary, but I´m afraid that BB´s love for the Cats is gonna continue
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Scully
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 09-21-06
                                                                    • 1276

                                                                    #488
                                                                    Tough pair of games last night fellows but I'm quite sure you'll bounce back in fine fashion very quickly. Was planning on playing the Bombers last night but unfortunately went for a nap and woke up midway through the third quarter. As the saying goes, "you snooze, you lose" I suppose. Simply couldn't get a handle on the late game at all.
                                                                    With that being said, as I was watching Saskatchewan play the Lions I came to the conclusion Greg Marshall and his club aren't as good as many believe them to be in this league. BC on the other hand, even though their record is now identical to that of the Riders at 1-5, has lost four of its' five games by margins of 4, 2, 8 and 5 points. That's four losses by a combined total of only 19 points. In essence with any luck and some unnessesary errors at critical junctures in those games as I recall, the Lions could very well be sitting at .500 a third of the way into the season at this point.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Dharmonize
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 10-10-10
                                                                      • 1991

                                                                      #489
                                                                      I must leave, have an important meeting in down-town. I can´t cap this game for the life of me, wanted to pull the trigger on the Stamps, but everything in me was screaming that Hamilton is the right play... so I really don´t know. I like over 50.5 concerning the total, but the only reason for it is that both games yesterday went under. Really "sharp" angle Therefore, as much as I hate to do so, I am forced to pass on this game, as I can´t wait for BB´s write-up, which I consider more than essential before putting a penny on this game. GL whatever you take tonight, gents!
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • memo99
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 01-08-10
                                                                        • 2368

                                                                        #490
                                                                        man did my Esks blow it in the 2nd half Reed won't be very happy but he made one of the biggest mistakes of the game by not throwing that challenge flag in the 3Q on that 30 yard Bomber catch that should have been a non catch
                                                                        Comment
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