SSK's NFL Thread

[ssk13809]

my book allows 10 pt teasers but a tie is a loss...those two games at +7 could tie (lose) for me

Really? Tie = No Action for me. I'm at Bookmaker.

[Tree Rollins]

Come on that was Week 1. Also they didn't prepare for Arian Foster like it was "Arian Foster". Their 2nd meeting they were much better prepared for that and did better. But I agree their run defense still sucks. But so does the run defense of the Jaguars and Texans, they also beat the Titans.
Granted their is a possibility Titans may score and go off, but I still like the Colts. Manning is too good. And he will do what it takes to win.

You can say it was week 1 and they weren't ready, but here we are 12 weeks later and they have given up over a 100 yards 3 weeks in a row to the likes of benjarvus green ellis, mike tolbert, and tashard choice.

Still though, I'm on the Colts.

[ssk13809]

You can say it was week 1 and they weren't ready, but here we are 12 weeks later and they have given up over a 100 yards 3 weeks in a row to the likes of benjarvus green ellis, mike tolbert, and tashard choice.

Still though, I'm on the Colts. I will never in my life bet Rusty Smith over Peyton Manning.

Isn't Collins starting?

[Tree Rollins]

Isn't Collins starting?

Yep. lol. I was just about to crash for the night when i remembered. I was getting back on to edit my post.

Either way, I don't see Kerry getting it done.

[ssk13809]

Looks like the Colts line has stayed at -3 and hasn't moved. Clearly a Trap Game. No problems, my LOCK's overcome Trap games.

[dwang0725]

Looks like the Colts line has stayed at -3 and hasn't moved. Clearly a Trap Game. No problems, my LOCK's overcome Trap games.

If you look, the -3 spreads are all juiced up. They are clearly looking for Titans backers.

[ssk13809]

If you look, the -3 spreads are all juiced up. They are clearly looking for Titans backers.

Not necessarily

Here is what one sharp on one of my teams said,
If they wanted to get Titan backers they would move the line. Making it more juiced yet keeping it at -3 is creating an illusion for recreational bettors to take the Colts, it's only -3 after all. Furthermore, it's also giving the books a potential larger gain if the Colts don't win at all. And even if they win by 3, they make A LOT out of the juice.

So really, the books are still begging for more to take the Colts, by keeping the line at -3, making it just "look" more attractive. And they have succeeded. Everyone is on the Colts.




But once again, no worries

SSK's LOCK vs. Las Vegas's TRAP


The lock usually wins

[franklt]

I agree: too many people on Colts!!

[ssk13809]

I agree: too many people on Colts!!

A LOCK is a LOCK for a reason



Even if things go "wrong" in my LOCK, the team I bet on should still cover. So it has already accounted for the fact the Refs might be on the Titan's side, and the Titans might surprise a little and the Colts get unlucky here and there. EVEN with all of that, the Colts should STILL cover. That's why it is a LOCK.


So once again, not worried. Granted though if Bad Luck + Bad Calls (Vegas Affect) + Surprises all hit at the same time, my LOCK might be in trouble. But the odds of that? Too low. But I'm not perfect at LOCKs guys. I hit 90% on LOCKs long-term. I'm currently on a 13 game documented ATS LOCK win streak (and a little longer undocumented), so the streak has to end sooner or later.

[Shafted69]

LOL! People are jumping off the Manning bandwagon. Not I says the Cat In The Hat.























-

[ssk13809]

All I'll say is this


Siding against a big Las Vegas play is a bad idea. But siding against a SSK LOCK is a even worse idea. Ask BetterBizzness about that.


Though if you're really worried, just don't make a play.

[Surtainly]

a loss here would bring your LOCK's under 90% for the year. It seems like you and your LOCK team may have jumped the gun here a little bit.
an ssk LOCK "usually" wins vs a Vegas TRAP? c'mon ssk, let's see a little more confidence.

I like the Colts... but if this play loses and you go under 90%, I expect to see a remodeling of the LOCK team. They don't deserve to keep their jobs if they approved a faulty LOCK knowing what's on the line.

[Surtainly]

wow, ssk stating that if you're really worried, don't make a play! This play sounds like it shouldn't have even been presented to the LOCK team, let alone pass inspection!!!!

[Maxlock]

A LOCK is a LOCK for a reason



Even if things go "wrong" in my LOCK, the team I bet on should still cover. So it has already accounted for the fact the Refs might be on the Titan's side, and the Titans might surprise a little and the Colts get unlucky here and there. EVEN with all of that, the Colts should STILL cover. That's why it is a LOCK.


So once again, not worried. Granted though if Bad Luck + Bad Calls (Vegas Affect) + Surprises all hit at the same time, my LOCK might be in trouble. But the odds of that? Too low. But I'm not perfect at LOCKs guys. I hit 90% on LOCKs long-term. I'm currently on a 13 game documented ATS LOCK win streak (and a little longer undocumented), so the streak has to end sooner or later.

You sound like Brett Favre. "If things don't go the way we want them I can blame it on my injuries and play calling." If you pick a game stick with your guns instead of looking for excuses and blaming it on bad luck like you did last week after the Colts lost.

Anyways, we're both on the Colts tonight. Bol.

[ssk13809]

a loss here would bring your LOCK's under 90% for the year. It seems like you and your LOCK team may have jumped the gun here a little bit.
an ssk LOCK "usually" wins vs a Vegas TRAP? c'mon ssk, let's see a little more confidence.

I like the Colts... but if this play loses and you go under 90%, I expect to see a remodeling of the LOCK team. They don't deserve to keep their jobs if they approved a faulty LOCK knowing what's on the line.

lol? Even if I drop to 6-1, and fall under 90%, that's still nothing extraordinary. According to probability, just because you hit 90% of something, doesn't mean your overall % will always be over 90%. As a simple example, 50% to get a Heads, if you get a Tails 2/3 flips, doesn't mean that something is wrong with your coin since you aren't getting 50% heads and you should declare your coin unfair.

And I said "usually", because the fact is a LOCK in general "usually" wins at all. 90% long-term to be more exact. That's "usually", not "always".

[ssk13809]

You sound like Brett Favre. "If things don't go the way we want them I can blame it on my injuries and play calling." If you pick a game stick with your guns instead of looking for excuses and blaming it on bad luck like you did last week after the Colts lost.

Anyways, we're both on the Colts tonight. Bol.

As I say every week to people wishing me "luck" on my LOCKs


My LOCKs don't need luck. Even with bad luck they should cover.

[ssk13809]

Let's just see if Vegas keeps it interesting.


Last week my LOCKs Rams, and Patriots, they were both easy covers. Too easy. Let's see if the "Vegas affect" can at least keep my LOCK at the edge of its seat.

[BetterBizness]

I won 50 points in SBR Trivia I want to give to you SSK... are we still on?

[ssk13809]

I won 50 points in SBR Trivia I want to give to you SSK... are we still on?

Of course. Anytime you want to give me free points betting against my LOCK, we are on. You don't even have to wait for me to accept. If I declare it a LOCK, just post the bet and we are on. Like I said, I like receiving free points. Granted it's not quite my LOCK (-2.5), but -3 is good enough. Worst I can do is push.



Colts -3

[The J-Dizzle]

The worst you can do is lose.

Trust me I was on Flyers yesterday

[BetterBizness]

Of course. Anytime you want to give me free points betting against my LOCK, we are on. You don't even have to wait for me to accept. If I declare it a LOCK, just post the bet and we are on. Like I said, I like receiving free points. Granted it's not quite my LOCK (-2.5), but -3 is good enough. Worst I can do is push.



Colts -3

Fair nuff...

I'm just trying to sort out your status on this game... You use the term LOCK way to much in all these degrees.. .

I'll just ask the simple question... simple answer appreciated...

Is this game a LOCK... Y/N?

[ssk13809]

Fair nuff...

I'm just trying to sort out your status on this game... You use the term LOCK way to much in all these degrees.. .

I'll just ask the simple question... simple answer appreciated...

Is this game a LOCK... Y/N?

Are you kidding me?



Colts -2.5 is a lock. As I've said about 100 times now. I already posted it got approval from my LOCK team as well.

Read any of my posts

Colts -2.5 (LOCK)
Risk 11 to Win 10

It's a LOCK approved by my LOCK team. And I only call LOCK games a LOCK. So I don't see how I say LOCK too much.

[BetterBizness]

Are you kidding me?



Colts -2.5 is a lock. As I've said about 100 times now. I already posted it got approval from my LOCK team as well.

Read any of my posts


It's a LOCK approved by my LOCK team. And I only call LOCK games a LOCK. So I don't see how I say LOCK too much.

I guess that's as simple as its going to get...

Fair enough... 2.5 is a lock...

[ssk13809]

I guess that's as simple as its going to get...

Fair enough... 2.5 is a lock...

And our bet is -3. Hey at least you're not betting directly against my LOCK. You're improving.

[dugdogg]

COLTS -3 is a CAPS LOCK!!!!!

[ssk13809]

Game time


I'm in Tennessee, but watching this one from up above

[Full Time Hobo]

Colts tearing it up.
Good call so far.

[ChileCheese]

your coin flipping analogy is way off base. Stats isnt your strong suit.

[ssk13809]

your coin flipping analogy is way off base. Stats isnt your strong suit.

No its not. You probably read it wrong. The point was just because you hit an expected rate of ___%, doesn't mean if you are below that expected rate (with a small sample size) something is wrong.

[ssk13809]

Colts tearing it up.
Good call so far.

Still a long way to go

Though

Let's just see if Vegas keeps it interesting.


Last week my LOCKs Rams, and Patriots, they were both easy covers. Too easy. Let's see if the "Vegas affect" can at least keep my LOCK at the edge of its seat.

This looks like the NYJ vs. NE game so far.

[Full Time Hobo]

lol? Even if I drop to 6-1, and fall under 90%, that's still nothing extraordinary. According to probability, just because you hit 90% of something, doesn't mean your overall % will always be over 90%. As a simple example, 50% to get a Heads, if you get a Tails 2/3 flips, doesn't mean that something is wrong with your coin since you aren't getting 50% heads and you should declare your coin unfair.

And I said "usually", because the fact is a LOCK in general "usually" wins at all. 90% long-term to be more exact. That's "usually", not "always".

Not 100% sure what your trying to say.. but no matter how many times you flip a fair coin the probability of it being heads the next time you flip it is still ~50%. Not taking into account the slight chance of it landing on its side. Law of averages says that if you flip a coin 100 times about 50 - 50 it should be heads and tails.

[BetterBizness]

Ez game yet again.. here you go @ the half...

[ssk13809]

Not 100% sure what your trying to say.. but no matter how many times you flip a fair coin the probability of it being heads the next time you flip it is still ~50%. Not taking into account the slight chance of it landing on its side. Law of averages says that if you flip a coin 100 times about 50 - 50 it should be heads and tails.

That's what I'm saying.


Some guy said if I don't hit my next lock, I will fall below 90% lock rate, therefore my LOCK team has some problems since I'm not hitting 90%. I said, that's the equivalent of saying if you flip a coin 3 times, and get heads once, you conclude your coin is unfair or not a coin where Heads comes up 50%.

In both cases, the conclusions are incorrect. Mainly due to sample size.

[Surtainly]

That's what I'm saying. Some guy said if I don't hit my next lock, I will fall below 90% lock rate, therefore my LOCK team has some problems since I'm not hitting 90%. I said, that's the equivalent of saying if you flip a coin 3 times, and get heads once, you conclude your coin is unfair or not a coin where Heads comes up 50%. In both cases, the conclusions are incorrect. Mainly due to sample size.

I was being sarcastic... joking around. I figured that's what this entire thread was all about.

[ssk13809]

Ez game yet again.. here you go @ the half...

Thanks again for the 50 points. This time you didn't even last a half. In case you didn't know, my LOCKS are generally easy covers.



I was really hoping with all this "Vegas" talk my LOCK would actually have to sweat. But no. Same old story.



Nonetheless, I'm not counting Vegas out. The game is far from over, let's see if the Titans can at least put some pressure on my LOCK.