LB thread for NFL plays 2010-2011

[PickSix]

Been a shitty year in the nfl for me with some bad calls that I went big on but been doing better the last few weeks. Still some games left to make some money on and I will have a bomb before its all said and done.

Is the bomb gonna be one of the games tomorrow?

[og4667]

LB, you been hiding out in your NFL thread. I think the Eagles get it done tomorrow, what do you think about that game?

[lakerboy]

Is the bomb gonna be one of the games tomorrow?

No, I don't see any edge in either game on sunday.

Og I like the packers bro but I really don't see any edge either.

I do think the chiefs under is worth a shot . Still looking though and I do like the chiefs ml a bit but nothing strong.

[memo99]

great hit on seahawks ml LB

[Fernburn74]

THAT WAS THE HOTEST PICK OF THE DAY AND THE MONTH!!!!

BURNING HOT !!!!!! thks and keep it up!!!!!

[lakerboy]

Two team 7 pt teaser

Chiefs/Ravens over 33/Eagles +4.5 (1x)

Eagles -2.5 -110 (2x)

Chiefs/Ravens over 40 (1x)

[A's Fan]

i thought you liked the under in chiefs game, something change your mind?

[JR007]

"Sunday
Chiefs +3
The Chiefs were my sleeper team at the beginning of the season. I predicted that their running game, improved defense and benefiting from their 2 coordinators would pay big dividends. It did. Not only did they win 10 games, but they caught the market completely off guard out of the gates, covering 5 of their first six games. The market over adjusted in the middle of the season, but has recently backed off with the valuation of the Chiefs despite the Chiefs showing signs of peaking now. Expectations on the Ravens have been high all season. Although their impressive record suggests they met expectations, their advanced stats suggest they failed, and their may be a disconnect between expectations and reality. Their running game is actually below average and their defense not as dominant as it once was. In fact, the Ravens are very similar to the Chiefs in terms of evaluating their passing game and defense, but are not on the same level in evaluating their running game. Expect the Chiefs running game to be a successful enough to allow Cassel to work within his means and simmer down any potential disadvantage they may have in terms of playoff experience. The Chiefs have the talented corners to counter the Ravens strengths at receiver, and a run defense has proven much more solid than their opponents running game. Both teams were dominant at home, winning all but one game. The Ravens simply lack any advantage in this game that warrants them being a favorite expect expectations and the better talent they have on paper. I will continue to ride the Chiefs. " This is not mine

[sharper2]

lb changed your mind on both of the plays? isn't it telling the packers game moved off the critical number of +3? i understand why you would take eagles now as taking packers +2.5 isn't that profitable, might as well go ml right? good luck regardless

[fly fisher]

No, I don't see any edge in either game on sunday.

Og I like the packers bro but I really don't see any edge either.

I do think the chiefs under is worth a shot . Still looking though and I do like the chiefs ml a bit but nothing strong.

Yo LB. I am currently on the under in the Chiefs/Balt game. Noticed that in this post you said that the under in the chiefs game is a worth a shot but in you next post, you took the game at the over. Is one a type O, or did you mean under or over.

I don't like to go against your picks.

[JR007]

does the moneyline on Pinny look right...on the Balt game ???? looks off to me anyone ???

[lakerboy]

Eagles TT over 23.5 -110 (1x)

[broadway6]

i can't open pinny

[raiders510]

broadway clear your cookies, delete browsing history and open a new browser...works every time. and dont forget to add www. at the beginning. If i just type "pinnaclesports.com" it wont work, you need the "www."

[BetterBizness]

Eagles ML on Pinny almost 15 cents off the pace...

[broadway6]

broadway clear your cookies, delete browsing history and open a new browser...works every time. and dont forget to add www. at the beginning. If i just type "pinnaclesports.com" it wont work, you need the "www."

thank you....

[MR PROFIT]

ouch!!

[lakerboy]

Ravens ML +160 (1x)

Ravens +3.5 -110 (2x)

[t-wizzle]

Love the Baltimore pick... this isn't Pittsburgh's year, I really think the Ravens go in there with a sound gameplan and control this one from the kickoff.

[martinmobley]

I think you're wrong again buddy... Pitt wins this one by 10. Green Bay is the ML pick this week.

[lakerboy]

I think you're wrong again buddy... Pitt wins this one by 10. Green Bay is the ML pick this week.

Gb is the square play of the week. It still might cash though.

[Goat Milk]

"Sunday
Chiefs +3
The Chiefs were my sleeper team at the beginning of the season. I predicted that their running game, improved defense and benefiting from their 2 coordinators would pay big dividends. It did. Not only did they win 10 games, but they caught the market completely off guard out of the gates, covering 5 of their first six games. The market over adjusted in the middle of the season, but has recently backed off with the valuation of the Chiefs despite the Chiefs showing signs of peaking now. Expectations on the Ravens have been high all season. Although their impressive record suggests they met expectations, their advanced stats suggest they failed, and their may be a disconnect between expectations and reality. Their running game is actually below average and their defense not as dominant as it once was. In fact, the Ravens are very similar to the Chiefs in terms of evaluating their passing game and defense, but are not on the same level in evaluating their running game. Expect the Chiefs running game to be a successful enough to allow Cassel to work within his means and simmer down any potential disadvantage they may have in terms of playoff experience. The Chiefs have the talented corners to counter the Ravens strengths at receiver, and a run defense has proven much more solid than their opponents running game. Both teams were dominant at home, winning all but one game. The Ravens simply lack any advantage in this game that warrants them being a favorite expect expectations and the better talent they have on paper. I will continue to ride the Chiefs. "

[JR007]

well groutie..the other three games he picked were winners........under colts.....seattle and Greenbay which i didn't post


by the way you had the saints right ????

[JR007]

Adding
Packers +2.5
In my opinion, the Packers are the best team in the NFC. They are as well rounded as it gets, has the ideal playoff experience, and their biggest weakness (their running game) is a facet that typically improves for teams during the playoffs. The Packers have been battle tested all season, and for the most part have answered the call. They have won more games against winning teams than the Eagles, and all their losses this year did not prove they were the inferior team. Their first loss was a 3 point loss against Chicago where they outgained their opponent by over 100 yards. Their next two losses were overtime losses where they battled injuries and outplayed their opponents. Then there was their 3 point loss in Atlanta, where they dominated the Falcons, but 2 goaline turnovers were too much to overcome. Their last 2 losses were 4 point losses that were without Rogers (for the most part). Despite 6 losses, the Packers are a hard team to beat, and when they do lose, they do not lose by much. The Eagles may be the second best team in the NFC, but they have shown some strong evidence of peaking a few weeks ago. They have been outplayed against their last 3 opponents and have beaten just one playoff team all season.

Fundamentally, I like how the Packers matchup in this game. Looking on the surface, the biggest advantage the Eagles may have in this game is their dangerous running attack matching up against the Packers biggest weakness- their run defense. But a lot of the Eagles running yards have come from Vicks legs on busted passing plays and runs attacking the corners with McCoy. The Packers defend the outside run well and have the athletic linebackers to do a good job containing Vick. The Packers probably have the best pass defense in all of football. They have the corners to match up well against the Eagles receivers, and the blitzing ability that can trouble Vick. Vick has also shown signs of peaking and has reverted more to the mistake prone quarterback he once was, as five of his six interceptions this season have come from the last four games. This bodes well for a Packers defense that is as good as any at creating mistakes. The Eagles defense is not as good as it once was. Their run defense has been improving, but their pass defense has been getting progressively worse. This does not bode well for them, as the Packers are one of the least reliant teams on their running game and possess a top tier passing game. The Eagles have especially struggled defending the tight end and running back on passing plays, something the Packers can exploit. The Eagles still blitz well, but the Packers are one of the better teams against blitzing plays this season as well. This is not a good matchup for a regressing defense trying to right the ship.
Aside from home field advantage, I do not see enough from the Eagles to warrant their asking price. The Packers are the better team that has shown less signs of peaking than their counterpart.

[JR007]

Hey groutie.....this guy is one of the best...next to you of course

[JR007]

"You're a good capper. Who are you on tonight?



Don't handicap CFB myself, but respect the opinion of many that have been hitting the Under since the open and are continuing to do so into the close."

[mlb]

good luck on ravens .. anything else yet?

[JR007]

WHAT SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THIS WEEKEND'S PLAYOFF GAMES
We have some interesting dynamics in play this weekend in the NFL playoffs. A few of the games are at or near key numbers like three or ten. Oddsmakers KNOW what will happen if they move a number on or off a key number, and won't do that unless weekend public action demands it. Sharps (professional wagerers in Nevada) are also playing a waiting game to see what the public does.
Let's run through all four games in schedule order...
BALTIMORE AT PITTSBURGH:
This game opened at Pittsburgh -3½, because oddsmakers were giving the Steelers credit for the bye week. These teams are so evenly matched, and play such close games against each other that "home team by three" will usually be the default number. Oddsmakers allotted a half point for the bye (which is a BIG half point when it moves off three), but sharps hit the dog immediately. They figure that points will be at a premium, and the bye probably won't matter much.
What will happen over the weekend? Squares (the general public) usually like favorites. But, this isn't a series where you can trust a favorite to win big. I'm interested to see myself. Sportsbooks know they'd get one-sided over the weekend with a half-point move either way (favorite money would pour in on Pittsburgh at -2½, and Baltimore at +3½). We won't see a move unless books need that money to balance out the wagers. Should three stay frozen, I would expect more sharps to like the dog at that price than the favorite given series history. Sharps like defensive dogs.
No movement on the total from the opener of 37. I know sharps are waiting to see what the game day weather forecast is before making a move.

GREEN BAY AT ATLANTA:
Interesting game here. Green Bay is the hot betting team in the NFL right now because they looked impressive down the stretch. Remember the game they gave New England even with Aaron Rodgers on the bench! Oddsmakers knew this, and only made THE RESTED #1 SEED PLAYING AT HOME at 1½-point favorite. That's hard to imagine, a #6 seed being perceived as better than the #1 seed on a neutral field. Sharps bet the line to Atlanta -2½ on the assumption that rest and home field was worth more than it was being given credit for.
Were the line to go to three, I think sharps would step in VERY heavily on the dog. These teams played a close game on this field recently that went right down to the wire. Some would say Green Bay should have won it. Sharps are hoping squares drive the favorite to a field goal so they can get the full three. I believe the public would probably jump on hot Green Bay to at that line. Sportsbooks have to decide if they want to sweat lower than normal action for a playoff game while rooting for Green Bay from +1½ to +2½ against the early money, or sweat a high handle game on Atlanta -3 from their perspective. Sportsbooks will have a position on this game. They have to make a pick themselves.
The total has fallen from 45½ down to 43½. From what I'm hearing that's based on respect for Green Bay's defense. Atlanta isn't seen as having a great defense, so an Under bet indoors must be about the Packers stop unit. This is a sign that sharps are looking to bet the Packers. They may not get +3, so they took Under 45½, Under 45, and Under 44½ as a consolation prize.

SEATTLE AT CHICAGO:
Chicago opened at -9½, and was bet up to -10. That was a mix of position taking and support. Sharps believe the public is going to bet Chicago period, because they have a big home field advantage in the winter, and they're playing a team that was way over its head last week. Why not bet -9½ early, then come back in for a middle at +11 or higher before kickoff? I did talk to some sharps, though, who think Seattle's horrible road play this year makes the Bears a good bet even at -10. They were happy to step in early.
I don't think we'll see sharp support for the dog until the line reaches +11 or higher. Some sharps have been very fond of the Seahawks this year on multiple weeks. They were rewarded for that with the upset over New Orleans last week.
The total opened 40 and is up to 41. This is another site where weather means a lot. This upward move is an early sign that things may not be bad. If you want to know weekend weather on a Tuesday or Wednesday, don't ask a weatherman. Ask a sharp!

NY JETS AT NEW ENGLAND:
The media loves talking about this game, and sharps love talking about it just as much. We saw an opener of New England -9. Sharps wanted the Jets, and had to decide if they should cross their fingers and wait for a +10 from the public...or if nine was the best they were going to get. Some decided waiting would be futile because the Jets get enough public support that the line may not move up. Now we're seeing Jets +8½ everywhere. We're not currently near critical numbers, so sharps who like the Jets will keep waiting until kickoff to see if they can get a higher number.
Note that New England -8½ is in the sweet spot for basic strategy two-team teasers, where you can move the line six points and cross both the 3 and the 6. If this line DOESN'T move, New England -2½ will be in a lot of two-teamers. And, many sharps will be looking at Green Bay +8 or +8½ to pair up with the Patriots in teasers. Based on the percentages, you can like Jets +9 and Patriots -2½ at the same time.
The total opened at 45, and is either 44½ or 45 at the stores I'm seeing right now. Three of the four games are set for cold weather, so we could see some game day developments on the Over/Unders.
So, to sum up, my read of the market and discussions with sharps are showing that the Wise Guys are looking at Baltimore +3 or better, Green Bay +3 if they can get it (otherwise tease and play the total), Seattle only if they're getting +11 or better, and the Jets at +9 or higher...with hopes that the public will back Brady after a weekend of TV hype about how he's having a Hall of Fame season.

[JR007]

Saturday
Steelers -3
The perception has always been that these two teams are very similar, know each other very well, and play each other very closely. Recent results support these variables. But modeling these two teams true worth and Saturdays result should diverge a bit from the past. Even with a material upgrade to the Ravens pricing after last weeks win, the Steelers are still undervalued in my opinion. Simply put, they are better than the Ravens in every facet of the game, and no matter how small the disparity in each facet is, it should result in more than a field goal win. The Steelers have a very underrated offense, especially their passing game. The Ravens defense thrives on confusion and creating turnovers. Ben knows this defense better than any other quarterback and has won 80 percent of his games against them. Expect the Steelers multifaceted offense to have more options than the Chiefs did last week when on portion of the game plan crumbles. The Steelers defense is the best in the league. They are nearly impossible to run against, and their pass defense is as equally as impressive. The Ravens mediocre running game should have problems establishing much against the Steelers front, leaving too much pressure on Flacco to perform on the road against a blitz happy defense. Aside from momentum and past history, there is little evidence to suggest that the Ravens should keep this one close or win outright. With all the fundamentals, home field advantage and rest favoring the Steelers, laying 3 seems like a bargain.

Packers +2.5
I have been valuing the Packers as the best team in the NFC for a few weeks now. Getting just 2.5 points on the road where HFA is probably being valued closer to 4, the market is clearly valuing the Packers as the class of the NFC as well. However, I still think they are undervaluing the Packers. The Falcons are frauds. They were either lost to the better teams they faced or won but were outplayed. They were helped by a league high turnover differential- a variable that has little predictive value and often times creates value the other way. When they faced the Packers earlier this year, they were outplayed but were helped by 2 turnovers inside the 1 yard line. Since then, the Packers have gotten better and the Falcons have gotten worse. The Falcons are not dominant in any facet of the game, and have more weaknesses one should have for being a 1 seed in the playoffs. Their defense is very mediocre. They should be outmatched by Rogers, especially if the Packers can continue to work their improving running game into the game. The Falcons running game is not dominant enough to shutdown this improved running game, which should provide much more balance to the Packers offense than occurred in their first meeting. The Falcons offense is equally as overrated, especially their running game that is actually below average. This does not bode well for the Falcons as the Packers defense might be the leagues most lopsided in terms of defending the pass much better than the run. The Packers continue to have the upper hand against the leagues most impressive passing game, a trend that should continue this week. The Packers defense matches up well against the Falcons and are one o the better teams limiting productivity of the opponent’s number 1 receiver, which does not bode well for White. The Packers have the better offense, the better defense, and the momentum. Home field advantage against a veteran Packers unit that possesses composure is not enough to offset these disadvantages. The Falcons impressive regular season run was based on a lot of smoke and mirrors and variable simply unsustainable. I’ll take the better team and the points.

Sunday
Seahawks/Bears Under 41.5
I think odds makers and the market alike are expecting a bit too much from both offenses as recent events support a higher scoring game. But let’s not forget this game consists of two subpar and overrated offenses and one of the best defenses in the league. Despite last week’s impressive performance, the Seahawks have one of the 3 worst offenses in football, especially on the road. expect material regression in productivity out of Hassleback this week. The Bears are one of the harder teams to beat on the big play the Seahawks need to rely on for success, while the lack the talent to take what the Bears will give them. Expect the majority of the Seahawks drives to stall with punts, and their scoring drives to be much more clock demanding and more likely to end with field goals. Although the Bears offense is currently on an uptick, it is not sustainable. They should manage some success against a weak Seahawks defense, but their risk taking that they heavily rely will more than likely subside in the latter stages of the game when the Bears are more than likely sitting on a lead. Expect a more grind it out approach in the second half that relies more on a running game that should have the ideal success that favors the Under. The Bears should score points, but not enough to overcome the Seahawks probable lack thereof.

Jets +9
The Patriots proved to be the best team in the league during the regular season, have the two best weapons for the playoffs (Brady and Belichick), and outright dominated the Jets a few weeks ago at home. But the Patriots are priced for perfection right now, and with the limited role players on offense and lack of experience and talent on defense, perfection is simply not sustainable in the long run. The Jets were just 4 points underdogs a few weeks ago against the Patriots. Yes, they lost by 42, but as odd as it may sound, there is little evidence to suggest the Jets are a worse team than what was perceived heading into that game. Since that loss, the Jets won in Pittsburgh, had an impressive showing in Chicago, and won last week in Indianapolis. The Jets are a solid team and a team one should not expect to lose by double digits. Fundamentally, the Jets have some advantages. The Patriots have a below average run defense that has been masked by them getting up early on teams. The Jets have a dominant running game. Expect them to work this to their advantage, which in return should shorten the game and take needed pressure off of Sanchez. No question the Pats has the leagues best offense. But don’t expect a repeat performance from them. The Jets defense is simply too good and had the upper hand against the Pats offense in 2 of the 3 games prior to that meeting. The Pats should win this game, but their chances of winning by 10 or more is less than the Jets keeping it closer or winning outright. Until the market lowers expectations on the leagues best team, I will take the points and bet against them.

[mebaran]

I just can't get past sanchez and his abysmal stats in foxboro.

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Good luck with the Ravens picks tomorrow. Might just throw a little on the +3. Don't want to be greedy and touch the ML. Take the points and be happy.

Best of luck again

[Statman]

Saturday
Steelers -3
The perception has always been that these two teams are very similar, know each other very well, and play each other very closely. Recent results support these variables. But modeling these two teams true worth and Saturdays result should diverge a bit from the past. Even with a material upgrade to the Ravens pricing after last weeks win, the Steelers are still undervalued in my opinion. Simply put, they are better than the Ravens in every facet of the game, and no matter how small the disparity in each facet is, it should result in more than a field goal win. The Steelers have a very underrated offense, especially their passing game. The Ravens defense thrives on confusion and creating turnovers. Ben knows this defense better than any other quarterback and has won 80 percent of his games against them. Expect the Steelers multifaceted offense to have more options than the Chiefs did last week when on portion of the game plan crumbles. The Steelers defense is the best in the league. They are nearly impossible to run against, and their pass defense is as equally as impressive. The Ravens mediocre running game should have problems establishing much against the Steelers front, leaving too much pressure on Flacco to perform on the road against a blitz happy defense. Aside from momentum and past history, there is little evidence to suggest that the Ravens should keep this one close or win outright. With all the fundamentals, home field advantage and rest favoring the Steelers, laying 3 seems like a bargain.

Packers +2.5
I have been valuing the Packers as the best team in the NFC for a few weeks now. Getting just 2.5 points on the road where HFA is probably being valued closer to 4, the market is clearly valuing the Packers as the class of the NFC as well. However, I still think they are undervaluing the Packers. The Falcons are frauds. They were either lost to the better teams they faced or won but were outplayed. They were helped by a league high turnover differential- a variable that has little predictive value and often times creates value the other way. When they faced the Packers earlier this year, they were outplayed but were helped by 2 turnovers inside the 1 yard line. Since then, the Packers have gotten better and the Falcons have gotten worse. The Falcons are not dominant in any facet of the game, and have more weaknesses one should have for being a 1 seed in the playoffs. Their defense is very mediocre. They should be outmatched by Rogers, especially if the Packers can continue to work their improving running game into the game. The Falcons running game is not dominant enough to shutdown this improved running game, which should provide much more balance to the Packers offense than occurred in their first meeting. The Falcons offense is equally as overrated, especially their running game that is actually below average. This does not bode well for the Falcons as the Packers defense might be the leagues most lopsided in terms of defending the pass much better than the run. The Packers continue to have the upper hand against the leagues most impressive passing game, a trend that should continue this week. The Packers defense matches up well against the Falcons and are one o the better teams limiting productivity of the opponent’s number 1 receiver, which does not bode well for White. The Packers have the better offense, the better defense, and the momentum. Home field advantage against a veteran Packers unit that possesses composure is not enough to offset these disadvantages. The Falcons impressive regular season run was based on a lot of smoke and mirrors and variable simply unsustainable. I’ll take the better team and the points.

Sunday
Seahawks/Bears Under 41.5
I think odds makers and the market alike are expecting a bit too much from both offenses as recent events support a higher scoring game. But let’s not forget this game consists of two subpar and overrated offenses and one of the best defenses in the league. Despite last week’s impressive performance, the Seahawks have one of the 3 worst offenses in football, especially on the road. expect material regression in productivity out of Hassleback this week. The Bears are one of the harder teams to beat on the big play the Seahawks need to rely on for success, while the lack the talent to take what the Bears will give them. Expect the majority of the Seahawks drives to stall with punts, and their scoring drives to be much more clock demanding and more likely to end with field goals. Although the Bears offense is currently on an uptick, it is not sustainable. They should manage some success against a weak Seahawks defense, but their risk taking that they heavily rely will more than likely subside in the latter stages of the game when the Bears are more than likely sitting on a lead. Expect a more grind it out approach in the second half that relies more on a running game that should have the ideal success that favors the Under. The Bears should score points, but not enough to overcome the Seahawks probable lack thereof.

Jets +9
The Patriots proved to be the best team in the league during the regular season, have the two best weapons for the playoffs (Brady and Belichick), and outright dominated the Jets a few weeks ago at home. But the Patriots are priced for perfection right now, and with the limited role players on offense and lack of experience and talent on defense, perfection is simply not sustainable in the long run. The Jets were just 4 points underdogs a few weeks ago against the Patriots. Yes, they lost by 42, but as odd as it may sound, there is little evidence to suggest the Jets are a worse team than what was perceived heading into that game. Since that loss, the Jets won in Pittsburgh, had an impressive showing in Chicago, and won last week in Indianapolis. The Jets are a solid team and a team one should not expect to lose by double digits. Fundamentally, the Jets have some advantages. The Patriots have a below average run defense that has been masked by them getting up early on teams. The Jets have a dominant running game. Expect them to work this to their advantage, which in return should shorten the game and take needed pressure off of Sanchez. No question the Pats has the leagues best offense. But don’t expect a repeat performance from them. The Jets defense is simply too good and had the upper hand against the Pats offense in 2 of the 3 games prior to that meeting. The Pats should win this game, but their chances of winning by 10 or more is less than the Jets keeping it closer or winning outright. Until the market lowers expectations on the leagues best team, I will take the points and bet against them.

Thanks for this Lakerboy, very thorough and concise analysis. Best of luck again this weekend!!

[Statman]

Thanks for this Lakerboy, very thorough and concise analysis. Best of luck again this weekend!!

Apologies, getting too late...Thanks for the great insight JR..

[JR007]

Apologies, getting too late...Thanks for the great insight JR..

Not mine dude...just posting thoughts from others who I have followed for years I always read this stuff before I make a decision

[JR007]

The Packers offense production dips to 18.1 PPG on the road, so it should be little surprise that they've gone Under in eight of nine road games this season. They also have a defense that leads the league in scoring at 15.1 PPG. The regular season meeting was a 20-17 final.

Play on: Under