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WHAT SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT SUNDAY'S STRANGE NFL SCHEDULE
I have to say this is one of the weirdest final Sundays I've ever seen in the NFL.- Hardly any games matter. The hopes for something mattering hinge on one of the best teams in pro football losing at home to the worst as a two-touchdown favorite.
- Every game is a divisional game, which the league was hoping would spur interest...but instead just spurs question marks everywhere about intensity. Will revenge matter in a lame duck game? Do rivals really hate each other as much as the media says?
- There are quarterback question marks in a few places, making an awkward week even more difficult for oddsmakers and handicappers.
- The "biggest" game that matters the most involves two bad teams who are fighting to take a poor record into the postseason as an obvious pretender.
Because of all the question marks everywhere, we've seen very limited betting action so far. Sharps want to be confident of an edge before they bet. If you don't know who's going to play quarterback, which teams are resting their starters for part of the game (or the whole game), who's going to be playing for next year or just going through the motions, there's just no reason to make a big investment.
Also, sharps tend to prefer underdogs. We have a lot of short prices this week where it might pay to wait until game day to bet because the public may get involved and drive the lines higher.
I should also mention that weather could be an influence in many outdoor sites, so there's no reason to bet the totals early unless there's dramatic news in the forecast. Nothing like that has hit the wires as or press time for this article.
So, it would be futile to run through every game on the schedule to talk about what the sharps are thinking...because they're just biding their time until things firm up. They'll be prepared. Should Atlanta inexplicably struggle with Carolina in the early game, sharps will take the logical positions in the late games that matter. Otherwise, it's the calm before a storm that may never arrive.
It's probably better this week to outline what sharps are thinking about the playoff teams. Sportsbooks will put up the openers for Wildcard Weekend Sunday Night (though Seattle/St. Louis will determine the eighth and final playoff team in prime time). Here's my read on how the sharps currently have the likely playoff teams rated:
AFC
1...New England
2...Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Indianapolis
5...NY Jets
6...Kansas City
There's respect for Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Indianapolis that pretty much evens out. Pittsburgh and Indianapolis have been to the Super Bowl before. Neither is playing great lately, but each is capable of stringing together wins. The Colts are more of a threat now that Joseph Addai is healthy. Sharps don't see any of those teams rating better than the Pats right now though.
Sharps know New England is the best. But, the nature of the beast is that the public wants to bet New England once they take the field in two weeks, so sharps have to decide whether they want to bet the Pats on the opener to get position (or take advantage of a short line)...or wait and fade the Pats.
The Jets aren't seen as a serious threat because you can't trust quarterback Mark Sanchez in a big game, and because Rex Ryan seems to have lost much of his bluster in recent weeks. The aura is gone from this team for now. Sharps will consider them as a value dog...but not really as a Super Bowl threat right now.
With Kansas City, credit where it's due. Experience matters in the postseason though, and this is a very green team in that regard. They'll look to see if the public underrated the Chiefs in the opening week. They're not lining up to bet KC to win the AFC.
NFC
1...Atlanta, New Orleans, Philadelphia and Green Bay
5...Chicago
6...The NFC West champ
It's really a toss-up in the East. The top four are basically interchangeable in terms of the sharps ratings. Atlanta isn't as good as their record, but they're very good. New Orleans is closing strong. Philadelphia stubbed its toe last week...and will fall quickly from the sharps' graces if Michael Vick keeps limping. The Eagles are only a threat if he's able to scramble for big plays. Green Bay looked great last week, and gave New England all they could handle with their backup QB the game before.
Chicago will probably get a bye, but they're not seen by sharps as second best. Sharps don't trust Jay Cutler at QB in big games...they don't trust head coach Lovie Smith...and they don't see the explosiveness here that exists with those four teams I listed first.
Whether Seattle or St. Louis rounds out the sextet...they'll be clear underdogs on their home field in the first round.
In terms of this Sunday, I'd encourage you to monitor line moves closely. If you see a big move on an underdog, that's VERY likely a sharp move because squares (the public) don't bet dogs. A big move on the favorite may be from a public bandwagon effect, so handle those with caution. "Comment -
Bucs +7 -110 (2x)
Bucs ml +275 (1x)
Panthers +14 (.5x)
Cowboys pk-110 (1x)Comment -
Rams just went to 4.5 at 5dimes
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Nice call on the bucs bro. I was on them as well and took a taste of the ML when I saw it dropping leading up to the game.
Any thoughts on the late games? I like Rams.Comment -
Cowboys -2 -110 (2x)Comment -
I like the rams as well. But I'm gonna wait. Take dallas broComment -
Dallas is probably the right side but Philly was in this same position a few years back and beat a good Falcons team with their backups in week 17. Eagles have plenty of good young talent, I actually think they win today.Comment -
Packers TT over is a pick i like. Obviously it's a must win and you never know when Chicago will pull their starters since they have nothing to play for.Comment -
0 points at halftime lolComment -
good call on bucs. was on them as well.Comment -
Rams ML -160 (1x)Comment -
Seahawks +10.5 -110 (2x)Comment -
Seahawks ML +450 (1x)Comment -
When these teams met in November, a 34-19 New Orleans win in which Brees threw for 382 yards and four touchdowns,in addition to setting the all-time franchise record for completions.Brees will come close to those numbers on Saturday,as the Saints' arsenal of weapons on offense are too many for Seattle’s nondescript defense,which features an underwhelming pass rush..In spite of all of these very faint reasons for optimism, however, It’s really,really hard to imagine the Seahawks’season extending beyond next Saturday. I got down early on this one Saints -10 My Prediction ..Saints 28 Seahawks 7As of this Tuesday morning, Carroll is still stating that he hasn't decided if Whitehurst or Matt Hasselbeck will start and that the two will split reps in practice this week. If Hasselbeck starts it’s possible that the spread will drop below 10. So if you are planning on taking the Seahawks to cover, my suggestion would be to place your wager early in the week. (Either that or save your money.)Seahawks coach Pete Carroll still isn’t sure who he will start at quarterback against the Saints on Saturday.Matt Hasselbeck and Charlie Whitehurst are expected to split snaps when the teams return to practice Tuesday.Comment -
WHAT VEGAS SHAPRS ARE THINKING ABOUT WILDCARD WEEKEND
Vegas sharps (professional wagerers) are treading relatively lightly as they enter Wildcard Weekend in the NFL. The first part of the regular season was more lucrative for them than the second half because underdogs were getting the money much more often in the first two months. Plus, you probably know many sharps took a hit on New Year's Day as they pounded Michigan State, Michigan, and to a lesser degree Penn State before bad losses by those teams.
Last Sunday wasn't a very active day for sharps. Lines were stacked very much against teams who needed to win. Most of them did so. A few picked their spots and did well. The bottom line is that sharps aren't coming in to the playoffs with a swagger in their step. Many of the biggest mouths in Vegas have been quiet the past few weeks!
This doesn't mean sharps are invisible though. Here's what I've seen them betting, and what I've heard them saying about the four NFL games this weekend:
NEW ORLEANS AT SEATTLE: New Orleans is extremely expensive at -10½ on the road. You just don't see lines like that in the playoffs. Home teams may lay that much. But, ROAD teams? Sharps prefer big dogs in big games (and there have been decades where that killed them in playoffs and Super Bowls way back in the day). They don't want to step in with Seattle until they know what's going on at quarterback, and what the weather is going to be like. I do expect game day money to come in from sharps on Seattle. This is a team they LOVED earlier in the season at the right prices. The public will probably be on New Orleans because they love betting the Saints as favorites. Sharps are hoping they'll see +11 on game day on the team side. The total her dropped from 45 to 44 on news of the Saints injury situation at running back.
NY JETS AT INDIANAPOLIS: Clear support for the Jets here, which isn't a surprise because many sharps have been calling Indianapolis a fraud for years. They kept saying that right up through the Super Bowl last year...and could finally say "See, we told you so" after losing until then. The opener here of Indianapolis -3 has dropped to -2½. It takes a lot of money to move off the field goal...and a lot of support for a dog to KEEP a line at 2.5 once it's moved. We're not seeing a flood of interest on the home team at less than a field goal, though the public will probably step in on the Colts on game day because they love getting Peyton Manning cheap. It's funny, I'm hearing some comprehensive analysis on what the Jets are such a great play here from many different spots. It's the EXACT SAME THING these same guys were saying a year ago before the Colts controlled the Jets fairly easily on the same field. It's true that the Colts have more injuries this year than last. Has the line properly adjusted for that?
BALTIMORE AT KANSAS CITY: The earliest numbers here were Baltimore -1 or -1½. Sharps hit THOSE stores hard at first...so that most places opened the line at Baltimore -3. It's stayed there every since. Sometimes the early bird gets smacked by the worms. We'll see Sunday whether or not Kansas City deserves more respect than they're getting in the number. They had a great season, but did look very shaky last week vs. Oakland in a game that everyone watched out here in the sportsbooks. Oakland is like a local team in Vegas in terms of fan support. Also note that Baltimore has won on the road in Wildcard weekend each of the last two years in convincing fashion. That has many thinking -3 is a small price to play to get them. We might see some dog money come in at KC +3½. As of now, I'm just not hearing many people endorsing the Chiefs. The total has dropped from 42 to 41 or 40½. We may see a further drop if weather is going to help the defenses.
GREEN BAY AT PHILADELPHIA: The line here is hopping between Philly -2½ and Philly -3. Wherever it sits money comes in on the other side. Eagles backers LOVE that they could get their team at less than a field goal. Packer backers LOVE that they can get a full field goal in a game they expect to win straight up. This is going to be the heaviest bet game of the weekend because it's a great matchup in the grand finale. And, we have very strong competing interests. Sportsbooks will pray it doesn't land on three because then they'll have to pay out the Eagles -2½ money while refunding the Green Bay +3 money. Disaster! Many stores are using three with an extra moneyline to avoid that possibility. Nothing yet is happening on the total. This is definitely a site where you want to know the weather before betting an Over/Under.Comment -
"Saturday
Seahawks +10.5
It is no secret that the Seahawks are easily the worst team in the playoffs and arguably the worst playoff team ever. This is a team that lost an astonishing 9 games this season by 15 points or more, while their opponents won an impressive 6 games by double digits. The Saints won four more games (against a tougher schedule), allowed 100 less points, and dominated the Seahawks earlier this season. But a handicappers job is to decipher what is baked into the price and what is not (as in any other investment). Contrary to popular opinion on this forum, points do matter. The Seahawks covered 7 games this season, the same as the Saints. Although a small sample size, there is little evidence the market was not fully pricing in the Seahawks deficiencies and Saints strengths. The Seahawks have always been a much better team at home, and this is year is no different, covering 5 of 8. Homefield advantage is clearly magnified hear, as the Seahawks have benefited from the loudest stadium, while it is no secret the Saints struggle outside domes, as they managed only one cover outdoors this season. Fundamentally, the Seahawks have a few disadvantages they have to overcome, but the Saints are still one of the more overrated teams in the league. Their running game is injured and below average, while Brees has been more mistake prone of late. This bodes well for the Seahawks, who can pressure the quarterback, and will be heavily dependent on high variance plays to overcome fundamental disadvantages. Veteran leadership from Hassleback combined with momentum from their home stadium should give the Seahawks a better chance of keeping this one closer than their losses throughout the season.
Jets/Colts Under 44.5
Two overrated offenses, one solid defense, and one underrated defense currently on an uptick. The Colts offense is not nearly as good as it once was. Their running game continues to be non existent, and they have not been able to consistently mask this deficiency with a dominant passing game thanks to key injuries to some receivers and poor offensive line play. These red flags have not fully hit the market, as the Colts have masked these problems with putting up a lot of points of late. The Colts have faced one of the more inferior schedules in terms of quality of defensive opponent, and have witnessed material drop-off in productivity against the better defenses they have faced. The Jets blitzing and solid corners should fore Manning to chip away at the field and implement more clock demanding drives. Offensively, the Jets would like to prevent this game from turning into a shootout. They tried to catch the Colts off guard last year by implementing such a strategy, but it clearly backfired. The Jets did not turn the corner this year offensively like they were hoping, and actually got worse as the season progressed. Expect them to try to slowdown the temp, implement a heavy dose of running and short passes, and take what the Colts are willing to give them. Both teams were Over machines in the regular season, which is clearly showing in the line, which opened 5 points higher than it did in last years playoff game."Comment -
.....Lookin good LB, like to see you cash that moneyline
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good call.Comment -
cash the seatttle spread and moneyline!Comment -
Great Call LB.Comment -
what a hit!!Comment -
Been a shitty year in the nfl for me with some bad calls that I went big on but been doing better the last few weeks. Still some games left to make some money on and I will have a bomb before its all said and done.Comment -
another one of those 100x bombs to be in black huh
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