hope you have a good christmas by the way man
-
Comment -
LB and Lyon hope you guys and the thread have a great holiday. Good luck to all of you.Comment -
Cards +7.5 -115 (1x)Comment -
nice call LBComment -
nice hitComment -
thanks guys. anyone have an opinion on the jets/bears game?Comment -
sanchez is hurting + he hates cold,snowy weatherComment -
T SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THIS WEEKEND'S NFL ACTION
I won't be back with you until Sunday morning here in the web article rotation...so let me be one of the first people to wish you a Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!
Today I'll run through my weekly look at what sharps (professional wagerers) are thinking about this week's NFL games. On Sunday I'll take a look at the next hunk of bowl games, with a reaction to early smart money during one of the most anticipated sporting weeks in the calendar year.
First things first...let's start with Dallas at Arizona on Christmas Night, then work through the Sunday and Monday schedules...
DALLAS AT ARIZONA (Saturday Night): Sharps hit the favorite and the Over, driving an opener of Dallas -6.5 up to -7, and a total of 44.5 up to 45. Oddsmakers wanted to test the waters a bit to see what the sharps would do around those key numbers. They found out. Sharps aren't fond of Arizona's young quarterback, and jumped in enough to bring the favorite up a tick. The Dallas defense looked so bad last week vs. Washington that sharps figured a shootout was more likely than a defensive struggle. Not real passion in either case because they were just half point moves. But, sharps usually bet Dogs and Unders, so the moves are meaningful.
DETROIT AT MIAMI: Sharps liked the dog here quite a bit, driving Detroit +4 down to +3. As I write this, support hasn't come back on Miami at the critical number...which tells you sharps like their position with the Lions and aren't thinking right now of buying any of it back. The total is up a tick from 41 to 41.5. If I don't mention a total in a game, it's because there hasn't been a meaningful move off the opener.
MINNESOTA AT PHILADELPHIA: Note that this has been time changed to prime time for NBC. A line came up midweek of Philadelphia -14 with a total of 44 when Brett Favre was officially ruled out. The total has come down to 43. That might be weather related, or just a lack of support for the Vikings backup quarterback. Sharps don't like laying big numbers in the NFL. Sometimes, if they want to bet "against" a QB, they'll do it by playing the Under.
WASHINGTON AT JACKSONVILLE: Similar situation here to Dallas-Arizona...where a favorite opened just below a critical number, and sharps bet early to drive it to the number. Jacksonville went from -6.5 to -7. The total is up from 45.5 to 46 too. So, last week's Washington/Dallas game inspired Over bets with both of those teams this week. I've heard a lot of conversation about this one. Some sharps like the dog but are waiting to see if they can get more than a TD. Jacksonville's defense isn't very good. And, Rex Grossman did put up a lot of points on Dallas. I have talked to some sharps though who think Washington won't be as motivated for Jacksonville as they were for archrival Dallas.
SAN FRANCISCO AT ST. LOUIS: St. Louis opened at -2, but snuck up to -3 when San Francisco announced that Troy Smith would be starting at quarterback instead of Alex Smith. The market likes Alex much better than Troy! The Rams aren't a team that Wise Guys normally would lay points with, so it's a strong indictment of the change.
SEATTLE AT TAMPA BAY: Nothing's happened here on the team side, with Tampa Bay still a solid -6. The total is up a point from 42.5 to 43.5. There's still a general tendency from the math guys to play Unders in the Northern cities and Overs in the warm weather states or indoors. That may be in play here.
NEW ENGLAND AT BUFFALO: Big move here on the total, as an opener of 46.5 is down to 44. Normally I'd attribute that to a bad weather forecast. Since New England has just played a couple of Overs in very bad weather, it's probably something else. New England opened at -8, but is down to -7.5. If that doesn't change...New England is going to be in a lot of two-team teasers this Sunday. Oddsmakers haven't been hurt too badly by teasers this year because they're getting better at playing defense.
NY JETS AT CHICAGO: This is likely to be a heavily bet game that gets great TV ratings. The Bears are pulling numbers with the networks...and Bears fans loving betting this team when things are going well. Jets fans are the same way, so we may not see much of a move from the openers of Chicago -1.5 and 37. Sportsbooks will be happy to collect the vigorish if the support does cancel out in this meeting of high profile betting teams.
BALTIMORE AT CLEVELAND: Limited action so far, and I think Baltimore -3 with a total of 39.5 is probably right on the money unless weather becomes a factor. Cleveland would get "live dog" interest if the line were over a field goal from sharps. Baltimore would be pounded at -2.5 because they need the game and Cleveland's just playing out the string. We might see the public bet "need" on game day. If you like Baltimore yourself, take care of business now. If you like rivalry underdogs, you might want to wait and see if you can get a better number Sunday morning.
TENNESSEE AT KANSAS CITY: Another favorite that got hit on the open. Kansas City opened at -4.5 and is up to -5. I mentioned a lot in past weeks that when you DON'T see a move, the sharps like the underdog. It gets harder to like underdogs when the games don't matter to them late in the year, so we saw moves against Arizona, Washington, and now Tennessee. Those weren't big moves...suggesting deep affection for the favorites. Just line value moves. The total is up a point from 41.5 to 42.5, which probably means nice weather for those of you living in Missouri this weekend.
INDIANAPOLIS AT OAKLAND: Indianapolis got hit hard at the opener of -2.5, as the line moved up to -3. My impression on that is that it's sharps "taking a position" before public money comes in. Squares (the general public) love to bet on Peyton Manning when it's cheap. This is cheap! If the line moves up to -3.5 or -4 on Sunday, sharps can jump right in and shoot at a middle involving the key number of -3. Sharps don't try this all the time because it can be hard to move off the three. Peyton Manning generates enough support that it's possible here.
HOUSTON AT DENVER: Not much betting interest in this game because it doesn't matter to either team. Sharps will fade the public if they come in on Tim Tebow or something. This is very unlikely to be a high action game on Sunday. The total did go down a point from 49.5 to 48.5.
NY GIANTS AT GREEN BAY: This line didn't go up until midweek as oddsmakers were awaiting an announcement on Aaron Rodgers. He's going to play. We're seeing Green Bay -3 with a total of 43. Sharps are waiting to find out more about Rodgers health (is he 60%, 80%, 100%?) before getting involved. They may just wait until Sunday and fade the public figuring that -3 is the right line and anything better than that represents value.
SAN DIEGO AT CINCINNATI: The total has come down from 46 to 44. Maybe weather is a part of that. Or, there's a thought that San Diego will control the game and run clock in similar fashion to their victory over San Francisco last week. The team side line hasn't moved off its opener of San Diego -7. But, it might soon because the public likes to bet need...and sharps have liked what they've seen in the second half of the season with the Chargers.
NEW ORLEANS AT ATLANTA: Can you believe this is the final Monday Night game of the season?! They won't have won in Week 17 just to make sure no playoff-bound team is stuck with a short preparation week. This may have the feel of a playoff game, as Atlanta is trying to earn the #1 seed in the NFC, while New Orleans is trying to clinch a spot in the postseason. The opener of Atlanta -2 moved to -2.5, but not all the way to -3. Oddsmakers know sharps will jump in full force on the dog +3 here. Remember that sharps loved New Orleans plus the small number at Baltimore last week. They've established their preference for Drew Brees and points, even if it doesn't work all the time. The total is up a point from 47.5 to 48.5, with two versatile offenses playing indoors on a fast track.Comment -
like a lot of dogs today.Comment -
what do u make of this jets/bears line lb with pinny staying at 1.5?Comment -
likin tennessee todayComment -
Comment -
jags -7 -106 (1x)Comment -
Late money appeared to be on Titans, Bills, Jags and Rams.Comment -
I really like Saints TT over 23.5 tomorrow night. Not sure if they win, but I think it's gonna be a 31-28 type game.Comment -
Unreal. You gave great advice and yet you run your mouth like you FU(KING GOD. You did it yesterday with the Lakers and how Phil was hiding his cards as the reason why your advice didn't win.Comment -
What's with the anger ronjon?Comment -
He's mad Coz 619 didn't make it to the playoffs.
Comment -
Been keepin an eye on saints tt all day. Was juiced on over 23.5 earlier, got bumped to 24, and is now heavily juiced on the over for 24. This is all at pinny btw.Comment -
im taking donations from any lb followers to cover his 500 point debt to meComment -
lets get ready for these playoffsComment -
KC...a "sleeper" team IMOComment -
lakerboy those points you got in the sportbook would be a good start to paying off our betComment -
Here ya go lb ...its been awhile..how you and paco doing....like the seahawks+3 tomorrowComment -
Here ya go lb ...its been awhile..how you and paco doing....like the seahawks+3 tomorrowComment
