Kroyrunner's Season Long NFL Thread (55-30-1 ATS in 2009)

[peterpan19]

oh **** that OAK game reminds me of the KC/SF game a few weeks back...

just sucks if it goes over...

[kroyrunner89]

oh **** that OAK game reminds me of the KC/SF game a few weeks back... just sucks if it goes over...

I was thinking the same thing, can't believe I even have to sweat this one. Cross your fingers!

[kroyrunner89]

They're running it out, we're good! Sunday plays are 3-1, System 1 went 1-0 and System 2 is 5-2 with Houston +5 pending. Not sure if I'm upgrading that one yet but I'm definitely tempted! Overall a good day, we needed one of these. Good luck to anyone betting the Monday night game!

[phillybadboy]

3 abd 1 nice day kroyrunner

[ssk13809]

Don't forget to mention how Detriot was "Lucky" on their cover.

Oh wait, you won it. No mention.

[kroyrunner89]

Don't forget to mention how Detriot was "Lucky" on their cover. Oh wait, you won it. No mention.

What are you referencing the pick 6 at the end? They were already up 6 at that point and covering. Variation didn't exactly play much of a role in that one...

[ssk13809]

What are you referencing the pick 6 at the end? They were already up 6 at that point and covering. Variation didn't exactly play much of a role in that one...

lol
The whole game


Those 2 TOs at the end of the game that led to 14 points for Detriot. Yeah okay you covered easily, so its not that much luck.



You deserve credit for this week. Good job.

[bobbyk1133]

Look who's Mr Active when he has a winning week. Nowhere to be seen on his bad days tho. If SEA was half as good as your stat book said they were you wouldn't have covered the under on that game, but I know you will thank your positive variance right? Oh wait, you only mention negative variance I forgot.

[Dan]

Don't forget to mention how Detriot was "Lucky" on their cover.

Oh wait, you won it. No mention.

Go away.

[kroyrunner89]

Look who's Mr Active when he has a winning week. Nowhere to be seen on his bad days tho. If SEA was half as good as your stat book said they were you wouldn't have covered the under on that game, but I know you will thank your positive variance right? Oh wait, you only mention negative variance I forgot.

I post every Sunday regardless of how I do, this is my 4th post today so that makes me "Mr. Active"? Your negativity is real nice, you must not have managed your money too well through my cold streak or something. Sure I misfired on my Seattle pick, nobody's perfect. The defense kept them in it as long as they could but they just spent too much time on the field in the end and wore down, why do you think they suddenly started struggling in the 4th quarter? In the end a win is a win and a loss is a loss variance or no variance, today's Seattle loss would be a good example of a game that I was on the wrong side of. The only point I was making last week with Pittsburgh was that if Pitt were playing at Miami again I'd gladly pick Pittsburgh again in that spot. I still think they cover that one the majority of the time. So lighten up or get out, I don't have time for people like you and would rather spend my energy focusing on capping. Hope you had a winning day, til next week

[bobbyk1133]

Manage my money through your cold streak? Don't flatter yurself, I cap my own games.

I call it like I see it - good or bad. It's hard for ppl to give you the benefit of the doubt when you constantly rationalize your losses and ignore when you are on the lucky side of things. If that's how you want to be as a capper more power to you, but you bring negativity on yourself. Last week the only person you were lying to about the PIT game was yourself. If you have a problem with ppl asking you questions then maybe yur in the wrong business.

[Dan]

Manage my money through your cold streak? Don't flatter yurself, I cap my own games.

I call it like I see it - good or bad. It's hard for ppl to give you the benefit of the doubt when you constantly rationalize your losses and ignore when you are on the lucky side of things. If that's how you want to be as a capper more power to you, but you bring negativity on yourself. Last week the only person you were lying to about the PIT game was yourself. If you have a problem with ppl asking you questions then maybe yur in the wrong business.

What's with all the noobies like you thread crapping on all the regulars all the time? Go away.

[jhack704]

What's with all the noobies like you thread crapping on all the regulars all the time? Go away.

yea no shit. i complain more than anyone i know but i dont come on here and rip kroy, u can win every fukin game unless u fade me

[ssk13809]

Kroy great week. But the contest lead of mine stays the same despite your 4-1 week.


And after Ice Cold start, I am finally above .500 for these weeks in the Contest.
Including 11-3 past 3 weeks ATS.


As I have said all year, I start out slow, but then once I get used to the NFL season, I am unstoppable.


But hey at least we are making our overall record look better. But just letting you know you still have no shot to win.

[Dan]

Kroy great week. But the contest lead of mine stays the same despite your 4-1 week.


And after Ice Cold start, I am finally above .500 for these weeks in the Contest.
Including 11-3 past 3 weeks ATS.


As I have said all year, I start out slow, but then once I get used to the NFL season, I am unstoppable.


But hey at least we are making our overall record look better. But just letting you know you still have no shot to win.

And if you weren't ahead in the contest then you would just create a new account and name and continue posting. What's your point? Try sticking with an account and maybe you'll earn some respect. August 2010? Yeah, nobody cares about you.

[Sidetracked]

where is this contest can i view it

[ssk13809]

And if you weren't ahead in the contest then you would just create a new account and name and continue posting. What's your point? Try sticking with an account and maybe you'll earn some respect. August 2010? Yeah, nobody cares about you.

You mad?

So because I joined SBR in August 2010 I am automatically unlegit? lol.

I was BEHIND in the contest I think at 1 point. I started f*ucking 2-8 for god sakes. Did I quit? Did I make a new account after my 2-8 start? You just said I would.
No. I manned up, knew my amazing NFL capping skills once the season gets a little more underway. And now am 11-3 in the past 3 weeks, with no signs of slowing down.

So wow what a moronic post. Even Kroy would have to shake his head at you.


And this week I am giving Kroy credit for his good week. He did well and I think he can turn it around.

You can keep hating on me.

[ssk13809]

where is this contest can i view it

I don't have the link.

But here is a quick summary:

Kroy already lost

[phillybadboy]

Kroyrunner had a nice day, give him his credit

[HauntingTheHoly]

Kroyrunner had a nice day, give him his credit

Sun shines on a dog's ass every now and then, I'm sure you realize. Hell I went 4-2 today, proving the old adage.

I was 4-0 ATS today, my two loses were two-team teasers. Am I a dumbass for playing those?

I had:

Dolphins +8
Redskins +9

Seahawks +9 (Oh shit this team SUCKS!)
Chiefs -2

[G's pks]

Good job today...hopefully this is the start of the turnaround...

[kroyrunner89]

Kroy great week. But the contest lead of mine stays the same despite your 4-1 week. And after Ice Cold start, I am finally above .500 for these weeks in the Contest. Including 11-3 past 3 weeks ATS. As I have said all year, I start out slow, but then once I get used to the NFL season, I am unstoppable. But hey at least we are making our overall record look better. But just letting you know you still have no shot to win.

I have to give credit where credit is due, you've been picking very well over the last three weeks. All I can do is try and keep taking care of business, I can't influence how things go on your end so I can only hope you slip up enough to allow me back in it. Congrats on a solid few weeks though and I certainly hope we both experience continued success, in the end I'd rather we both come out of the season with a healthy profit than I come away with 300 SBR points

[Styles]

Nice picks Kroy! .. I wish i would've seen your thread before i made my bets!

[edge444]

Look who's Mr Active when he has a winning week. Nowhere to be seen on his bad days tho. If SEA was half as good as your stat book said they were you wouldn't have covered the under on that game, but I know you will thank your positive variance right? Oh wait, you only mention negative variance I forgot.

I don't get you why do you keep posting in this thread - you clearly don't trust Kroy as a capper. I think the problem is that as his thread is active you only post to promote yourself. If you have nothing positive to contribute you should stop viewing thread and just contonue with your own picks as you are so good.

[bobbyk1133]

I don't get you why do you keep posting in this thread - you clearly don't trust Kroy as a capper. I think the problem is that as his thread is active you only post to promote yourself. If you have nothing positive to contribute you should stop viewing thread and just contonue with your own picks as you are so good.

Promote myself? So how does that theory work when I post in other dead threads? Ahh ok? Good hypothesis.

I think Kroy is a lot better than other ppl I've seen here and I've had no problems with him for over two months. The last couple weeks I had some contrary opinions and questions that were ignored/dismissed. Am I surprised given how his season has gone and how he tries to save face? The last time I checked the purpose of a message board is to discuss. If he doesn't like it he can stay on his own website instead of coming to a chat board to post.

[GoCougs!]

Why can't people just be happy for people when they do well, and supportive when they are on a cold streak. Taking $$$ from the book is what matters.

[A's Fan]

Why can't people just be happy for people when they do well, and supportive when they are on a cold streak. Taking $$$ from the book is what matters.

in a perfect world we would unite to take down the books.

But in a perfect world, there prolly wouldnt be any books/gambling

[simonk83]

Well done Kroy, ignore the dickheads.

[peeteer]

Good week kroy, keep it up!

[kroyrunner89]

• New York Giants -7
• Giants/Seahawks UNDER 41
  

These are a couple of my favorite picks this week as I'm continually amazed at how bad the Seattle offense is. Even two weeks ago when they beat Arizona I was watching that game and marveling at how inefficient the offense looked. This week, things likely get no better as QB Matt Hasselbeck is out and will be replaced by Charlie Whitehurst, who has never thrown an NFL pass. Unfortunately for Whitehurst, he faces a very tough New York defense which ranks #1 against the pass allowing just 4.98 yards per pass attempt this season. We've seen the Giants get to opposing quarterbacks multiple times this year, with Okung expected to sit out again this week protection will be a real issue for Seattle and I would not be surprised at all to see a couple of turnovers out of Whitehurst as he faces constant pressure. While the Seattle defense is still a tough unit in my opinion, they draw a difficult assignment this week matched up against Eli Manning and the high flying Giants offense. The Giants are throwing for 6.78 yards per pass attempt and running for 4.8 yards per rush attempt, both ranking 6th best in the NFL. The Giants do have the tendency to shoot themselves in the foot with turnovers, but coming off of a bye I expect them to have some of those issues cleaned up a bit. Seattle's defense will play the Giants tough, but in the end New York leaves with a fairly convincing win. I expect a final score along the lines of 23-10 New York.

• San Diego Chargers -3
• Chargers/Texans UNDER 50
  

This Chargers game reminds me quite a bit of when the Texans played the Giants a few weeks ago, and I expect things to go similarly this time. As we've been seeing all season, the Texans are struggling protecting Matt Schaub, especially against teams with an above average pass rush. They surrendered three sacks to the Giants, with Schaub turning the ball over twice and throwing for under 200 yards. The Chargers are a very similar pass defense to the Giants, they apply pressure just as well, they allow only .2 yards per pass attempt more, they can definitely bottle up the Texans' passing game much like New York did. Their rush defense is equally as impressive as well. They're allowing just 3.48 yards per carry, 5th best in the NFL (Giants are 4th). Foster will struggle much like he did against New York (11 carries for 25 yards), I expect another long day for Houston's offense as they struggle to put points on the board once again. As for the Chargers' offense, they're again without their top two wide receivers, and it looks pretty likely that they'll be without Antonio Gates in this game as well. Even if Gates does try and play, he's likely going to be pretty limited by his injury and won't put up monster numbers. Despite how bad the Houston pass defense is (allowing 7.2 yards per pass attempt, 2nd worst in the league), San Diego is simply missing too many weapons to explode for 30+ points. However, Rivers is still finding ways to produce with his replacement wide receivers, and he will find ways to exploit the Houston pass defense. I know the Chargers have a habit of shooting themselves in the foot on the road this year, but sooner or later they're going to get past those issues and show that they're one of the best teams in the NFL. I think this is the week, look for an easy Chargers win with a point total that stays in the low 40s.
Strange week with two picks on two different games, but that's where I'm seeing the value this week. This will be it for Week 9, good luck everyone let's build off of last week's momentum!

[simonk83]

BOL mate!

[kroyrunner89]

Promote myself? So how does that theory work when I post in other dead threads? Ahh ok? Good hypothesis. I think Kroy is a lot better than other ppl I've seen here and I've had no problems with him for over two months. The last couple weeks I had some contrary opinions and questions that were ignored/dismissed. Am I surprised given how his season has gone and how he tries to save face? The last time I checked the purpose of a message board is to discuss. If he doesn't like it he can stay on his own website instead of coming to a chat board to post.

You're right, purpose is to discuss and I'm happy to do so, if I remember correctly this all started with the Pitt pick? It can be easy to slip into a "poor me" state of mind in this business, perhaps I did reach a little on that one afterward saying it felt like a bad beat but I still won't back off of my gut feeling that they'd cover that game the majority of the time! In the future though, if you don't like my picks and want to say "You had no edge", please bring it up before the game as hindsight is 20/20 and nobody likes hearing about how they shouldn't have been on a losing pick, especially in the middle of a cold streak. You went from:

"That PIT/MIA game is an interesting one. I have the game at a PK without factoring in Ben's return. So is he worth at least a FG? I think so but this game still makes me nervous. They will probably win by 20 and I'll be kicking myself."

to:

PIT was a trap game this week. There's wasn't enough of an edge to play it.

I'm just saying bring that up before the game in the future please and I'm happy to discuss. In return, I'll shut up about bad beats because you're right variation is part of the game and sometimes you're going to go through streaks where it's going against you more than for you. Sound good?

[bobbyk1133]

You're right, purpose is to discuss and I'm happy to do so, if I remember correctly this all started with the Pitt pick? It can be easy to slip into a "poor me" state of mind in this business, perhaps I did reach a little on that one afterward saying it felt like a bad beat but I still won't back off of my gut feeling that they'd cover that game the majority of the time! In the future though, if you don't like my picks and want to say "You had no edge", please bring it up before the game as hindsight is 20/20 and nobody likes hearing about how they shouldn't have been on a losing pick, especially in the middle of a cold streak. You went from: "That PIT/MIA game is an interesting one. I have the game at a PK without factoring in Ben's return. So is he worth at least a FG? I think so but this game still makes me nervous. They will probably win by 20 and I'll be kicking myself." to: PIT was a trap game this week. There's wasn't enough of an edge to play it. I'm just saying bring that up before the game in the future please and I'm happy to discuss. In return, I'll shut up about bad beats because you're right variation is part of the game and sometimes you're going to go through streaks where it's going against you more than for you. Sound good?

Just for the record my opinion didn't change on the PIT game. I said the game made me nervous and it was inferred that I wouldn't play it.. When 80% of the public was on it and they don't cover it qualifies as a trap.

As for your picks this week - I like the side picks a lot ....

...because I have the same.

Totals are tricky this year. Last week in games with wind and cooler temps unders cashed 3 out of 4 times. I'll be trying that this week to see how it works because all conventional logic has failed this year.

Cheers and GL this week.

[kroyrunner89]

Just for the record my opinion didn't change on the PIT game. I said the game made me nervous and it was inferred that I wouldn't play it.. When 80% of the public was on it and they don't cover it qualifies as a trap. As for your picks this week - I like the side picks a lot .... ...because I have the same. Totals are tricky this year. Last week in games with wind and cooler temps unders cashed 3 out of 4 times. I'll be trying that this week to see how it works because all conventional logic has failed this year. Cheers and GL this week.

You're right, totals have been tricky but I couldn't ignore the 50 on San Diego, that number is just monstrous given the circumstances. For windy games definitely look for cross winds as they have probably the biggest impact on totals out of any kind of weather, out of curiosity what games are you eying this week for your totals? BOL this week!

[bobbyk1133]

You're right, totals have been tricky but I couldn't ignore the 50 on San Diego, that number is just monstrous given the circumstances. For windy games definitely look for cross winds as they have probably the biggest impact on totals out of any kind of weather, out of curiosity what games are you eying this week for your totals? BOL this week!

All games where wind/temperature are a factor. NE/CLE, IND/PHI, MIA/BAL. Forecasts are all for 10pmh winds or higher in those. I like SD/HOU under with Gates doubtful and AJ hobbled, but I'm hesitant because as I said, logic has been useless with totals this season. I've had at least a half dozen totals that I LOVED based on all the variables but then the game goes in the complete opposite direction. I will likely pick one or two I like the most tomorrow based on latest info/line movement.