Kroyrunner's Season Long NFL Thread (55-30-1 ATS in 2009)

**bobbyk1133** · 11-18-10, 04:43 PM

Originally posted by kroyrunner89

I've found success with totals in the past and although it's been very tough so far this year what makes it different from any other year?

You have got to be kidding me.

I hope that you have a girlfriend that can take your account away from you because the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. The difference this year from other years is quite obvious at this point. OVERS are hitting at an unprecedented rate and books are finally catching up. Go look at all the total odds this week. Have you ever seen so many set so high? If you haven't adjusted for this with your system then you are playing an outdated strategy. The only thing I can say is try to pick the best one or two OVERS of the week you like and play those instead. Either that or wait until an hour before game time and hit the books on games with very turbulent weather.

**HauntingTheHoly** · 11-18-10, 05:24 PM

The Over/Under thing is pretty interesting. Bobby is right that the books have adjusted and have the totals higher. But couldn't an argument be made that the past 10 weeks is "mostly variance"? (I don't know the answer, anyone?) If so, then maybe continuing with unders is the best strategy? Of course, if you're like me and asking such questions, you're probably somebody who only rarely bets totals either way.

**bobbyk1133** · 11-18-10, 05:55 PM

Originally posted by HauntingTheHoly

The Over/Under thing is pretty interesting. Bobby is right that the books have adjusted and have the totals higher. But couldn't an argument be made that the past 10 weeks is "mostly variance"? (I don't know the answer, anyone?) If so, then maybe continuing with unders is the best strategy? Of course, if you're like me and asking such questions, you're probably somebody who only rarely bets totals either way.

Your guess is as good as mine. There have been tried and true formulas for winning totals in prior seasons, but they haven't worked this year. I have scrapped some of those strategies and focused on the overs in recent weeks. All I do know is that the books have made sweeping adjustments. They started to adjust incrementally over the last couple weeks, but this week they've gone full board with higher lines. We'll see how it plays out the rest of the way...

**A's Fan** · 11-18-10, 05:59 PM

unders will hit now this week.

**bobbyk1133** · 11-19-10, 01:57 AM

An under finally did what it was supposed to this year - stay UNDER!

GL with the rest.

**kroyrunner89** · 11-20-10, 05:57 PM

We got off on the right foot this week with a Thursday night win, hopefully we can build on that momentum and make it a profitable weekend. Here's what I'm liking:

Tennessee Titans -7

So far picks that both my systems back are 3-0, and this is one of those instances. The Titans have been a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde team this season, as they have equally as many blowout wins as they do puzzling losses. This week they find themselves matched up against a weak Redskins team in a game that features the return of Albert Haynesworth to Tennessee. QB Vince Young is scheduled to make the start, and by reports he is fully healthy. We saw last week against the Eagles the trouble that the Redskins have with a scrambling quarterback, but the real issue for them in this game will be stopping Chris Johnson. Johnson looked like his old self against the Dolphins last week, and against a Washington defense that is allowing a league worst 5.11 yards per carry he should be ready to explode. Washington's 9th worst pass defense will be a liability in this one as well, as Young should be able to work Randy Moss a bit more into the offense and get a couple big play action plays downfield once Johnson gets going. The Titans are still one of the most efficient scoring offenses in the NFL, and I expect them to put up a fairly large point total against Washington this week. The only remaining question then is whether or not the Redskins will be able to keep up on the scoreboard. McNabb has struggled lately, as Washington is 19th in the NFL in yards per pass attempt. Despite their stinker last week, the Titans still allow just 5.84 yards per pass attempt, 8th best in the NFL. This matchup certainly won't be easy for McNabb, and with Tennessee averaging over 1.5 interceptions per game I think we'll likely see a couple McNabb turnovers that either kill Washington drives or give Tennessee great field position. Tennessee just has too much more talent than Washington on both sides of the ball, I expect a double digit Titans win.

Detroit Lions +6

This game has all the classic makings of a letdown game for the Cowboys. Coming off of a huge win against a division opponent, they now return home to face the 2-7 Lions under the false impression that their new coach has fixed all of their problems. However, there really are no matchups for the Cowboys to exploit in this one. Dallas still has one of the worst pass defenses in the league, allowing a whopping 7.13 yards per pass attempt. Even with QB Shaun Hill at the helm, the Lions will be able to exploit this with Calvin Johnson and Nate Burleson at the wide receiver positions. Meanwhile, Detroit's biggest defensive weakness is stopping the run, which shouldn't be exploited too badly as the Cowboys are the 5th worst team in the NFL rushing for just 3.61 yards per carry. Kitna is one of the most erratic QBs in the NFL, and if pressured by Detroit's strong front 4 I think he'll collapse under the pressure and we'll see him get back to his turnover prone ways. Finally, factor in that Detroit is the 6th most efficient scoring offense and Dallas is the 6th worst and it looks like Detroit has the advantage in this one. Dallas will revert back to being their own worst enemies, Detroit has a shot to take this one outright but even if they don't I think there's a great chance we see them cover.

Seattle/New Orleans UNDER 44
Seattle Seahawks +11.5

Seattle thrashed the Cardinals last week as their passing game came to life, however this week they face a much tougher test against the Saints. So far, it's been no secret that Seattle has one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. They're struggling with all kinds of protection issues, and don't have many explosive downfield threats to attack opposing defenses with. They're throwing for just 5.6 yards per pass attempt this season, 5th worst in the NFL. This week, they find themselves matched up against a Saints defense that is ranked 1st against the pass allowing just 5.23 yards per pass attempt. While they rank just 16th against the run, this plays right into the Seattle gameplan, which will be pound the ball on the ground and try to keep Drew Brees off the field. Despite this plan, Seattle is going to have a very tough time putting drives together, let alone closing them out as the Saints are 12th best in defensive scoring efficiency. The Seattle point total will be staying low in this one, which makes the only concern how many points the Saints can put on the board. I've been losing faith in this Seattle defense as the season has worn on, however the Saints offense hasn't exactly been lighting it up. There's no question that the Saints have struggled to recapture the magic they had last season, and while Reggie Bush's return to the lineup should help it won't solve all of the Saints' problems. Brees is passing for just 6.41 yards per pass attempt, 16th in the NFL. Also, the Saints have had a very tough time closing out drives as they're 9th worst in the NFL in scoring efficiency. Matchup up against a Seattle defense that's ranked 3rd in scoring efficiency, I don't think we see a blowout win for the Saints in this one. This is the type of game I've seen New Orleans look past time and time again, the Saints will allow the Seahawks to stay in this one and we're going to have a low scoring game as a result.

I might release a Monday night pick, but for now this is it. Good luck everyone!

**raiders510** · 11-20-10, 06:29 PM

great write-ups man....good luck

**bobbyk1133** · 11-20-10, 06:59 PM

I don't think SEA's defense is as good as their stats suggest. Check out who they have played. This is also SEA's 2nd straight game on the road while NO is coming off a bye. Bush could be limited, but just his presence will dramatically help them in formations. I think SEA could get blown out, but I'd rather tease them down than lay double digits. lol

Sneaky pick with DET. They have been covering all year long and they have the perfect ingredients for a late cover even if they are down (young, improving, can move the ball). I worry about that DET secondary though...

GL this week.

**raiders510** · 11-20-10, 07:22 PM

i dont like how seattle has to travel alllllllllll the way across the country to play in the eastern time zone....i would say they get blown out...big..

saints 45, seahawks 14

**Sidetracked** · 11-20-10, 07:34 PM

with you on detroit....saints should route though seattle covering back to back on road is a rare thing

**dvb02** · 11-21-10, 12:03 AM

Good luck this weekend Kroy.

**edge444** · 11-21-10, 11:37 AM

Originally posted by bobbyk1133

Your guess is as good as mine. There have been tried and true formulas for winning totals in prior seasons, but they haven't worked this year. I have scrapped some of those strategies and focused on the overs in recent weeks. All I do know is that the books have made sweeping adjustments. They started to adjust incrementally over the last couple weeks, but this week they've gone full board with higher lines. We'll see how it plays out the rest of the way...

A lot of what you say makes sense, but surely we are now reaching the point where things start to equalize with overs running at 58% and the books adjusting the totals I am all for playing a single stake on all unders until the percentages start to look a bit more balanced. So my strategy from now on is to play all unders until they reach 52% or I win 15 units that seems a good number. I love to swim against the tide it has made me a lot of money over the years. My calculations tell me I should be able to make about 15 units.

**HauntingTheHoly** · 11-21-10, 12:25 PM

LMFAO @"My calculations"

**tonyp0387** · 11-21-10, 12:34 PM

I like Detroit. You post plays that never beat the close, so many of your plays you could get a better number all the time.

**Longstreet9** · 11-21-10, 12:38 PM

Originally posted by raiders510

i dont like how seattle has to travel alllllllllll the way across the country to play in the eastern time zone....i would say they get blown out...big..

saints 45, seahawks 14

Except for the fact that New Orleans is in the Central Time zone. And it's not really that close, the switch is between GA and AL, TWO states away. Plus, its a 4pm kick off.

Listen, I don't normally like West Coast times traveling to the East Coast for a 1pm kick off as favorites either. But you have none of that here, it's not the East Coast, not 1pm, and Seattle isn't a favorite. I'll take the 11.5.

**kroyrunner89** · 11-21-10, 02:38 PM

Originally posted by tonyp0387

I like Detroit. You post plays that never beat the close, so many of your plays you could get a better number all the time.

Detroit closed at +5.5, nothing else has moved at all... hope the Titans can get it going for us in the 2nd half GL rest of the day everyone!

**phillybadboy** · 11-21-10, 05:47 PM

Originally posted by HauntingTheHoly

LMFAO @"My calculations"

good luck

**Surtainly** · 11-21-10, 06:10 PM

looking like another week of solid picks from Kroyrunner!

**G's pks** · 11-21-10, 06:26 PM

Very surprised to see you on Seahawks! Saints my only play today...

Just came up with an idea...maybe reduce to one game a week till you get the ship going in the right direction...

**tonyp0387** · 11-22-10, 12:37 AM

[quote=kroyrunner89;7552151]Detroit closed at +5.5, nothing else has moved at all... hope the Titans can get it going for us in the 2nd half GL rest of the day everyone![/quote

You play pinny right? total closed at 44.5 and you could have grabbed Seattle at 12 some shops had 13 juiced. Better luck next time i had seattle and lions also they suck.

**belvedere86** · 11-22-10, 02:03 AM

0-4 you just got one good season last year. Im done. Bol

**22dsnyd22** · 11-22-10, 10:21 AM

rough out there in the nfl. I started betting 1 nfl game every sunday. Helps limit losses bc i have done alright on saturdays. Not too bad of picks. I knew Skins would win though..... THey are my squad and We got rained on and embarassed against vick week before. GL

**G's pks** · 11-23-10, 08:55 AM

maybe like a game of the week or something...obviously this has been a disaster for you plays 4-5 sides and totals...

**HauntingTheHoly** · 11-23-10, 11:26 PM

Has Kroy not been on since Sunday to address the disaster? I hope he hasn't done himself in.

It's only money, Kroy. F it. Just keep going.

**bobbyk1133** · 11-25-10, 09:17 PM

Originally posted by HauntingTheHoly

Has Kroy not been on since Sunday to address the disaster? I hope he hasn't done himself in.

It's only money, Kroy. F it. Just keep going.

I think he's abandoned his promotional tour.

**HauntingTheHoly** · 11-26-10, 12:37 AM

Originally posted by bobbyk1133

I think he's abandoned his promotional tour.

Sadistic bastard.

**daneault23** · 11-28-10, 03:20 AM

He has San Diego +2.5 and Philadelphia -3 for Sunday.

**CBASS** · 11-28-10, 03:52 AM

Can someone please post Kroy's overall record in NFL this year? Thanks.

**bobbyk1133** · 11-28-10, 06:29 AM

Originally posted by daneault23

He has San Diego +2.5 and Philadelphia -3 for Sunday.

Are you his messenger? He big-timed SBR-Nation.

**G's pks** · 11-28-10, 05:52 PM

Originally posted by CBASS

Can someone please post Kroy's overall record in NFL this year? Thanks.

it was very bad but looks like he did the right thing and ended it...

**daneault23** · 11-28-10, 08:25 PM

Originally posted by bobbyk1133

Are you his messenger? He big-timed SBR-Nation.

Nah I guess I just get his emails with the plays and writeups, but it looks like he's not posting the plays here anymore. Either way, he still had a losing week, even if his chargers bet wins cuz of the juice.

**phillybadboy** · 11-28-10, 08:34 PM

damn i think kroyrunner can turn it around, i hope he comes back and shows everyone

**phillybadboy** · 11-29-10, 12:24 AM

put out a monday night play kroyrunner

**phillybadboy** · 11-29-10, 02:48 PM

does anybody have kroyrunner moday night plays

**22dsnyd22** · 12-01-10, 12:04 PM

finish season strong kroy .. GL