Kroyrunner's Season Long NFL Thread (55-30-1 ATS in 2009)
I'm going to go ahead and throw everything in one thread this season, it'll be a little sloppier I suppose but overall it'll be a lot easier to find all of my stuff if it's in one place. I've been waiting for this season to start ever since the end of last season's Super Bowl, lots of areas I feel like I can still improve. Let's recap the 2009 season really quick:
Highlights
Lowlights
As you can see, a lot more good than bad last year, but I'd love to eliminate the bad altogether this season. Of course, the best way to do this is learn from past mistakes. For my 5-7 ATS run, there's really nothing I feel I could have done differently. Although I had a couple brutal picks in there that deserved to lose, three of those losses were absolutely terrible beats. Runs like that happen, and we had our fair share of games break our way too so that all evens out in the end. The 5-5 ATS run in the playoffs is a lot more troubling to me, because I recognize how easily I could have avoided it. Simply put, I wasn't nearly selective enough. In the playoffs, assuming you pick one side and total per game that's a grand total of 22 picks you can have. That means I picked almost half of those potential plays, way too high of a ratio. Being honest with myself post playoffs, the 3 plays I was least confident in all lost and I really should have never released them. 5-2 ATS would have been much better than 5-5, but live and learn. That's an area I hope to improve this season.
So here's what to expect for 2010. Like last season, my goal is to finish the year having picked 67% winners or better. I will try and be a bit more selective than last year, but I also feel I can identify opportunity a bit better than last year too, so we'll probably finish the year around 90 plays one again. Also, like last season, all of my plays will be flat bet, I don't assign units to my plays. I do not pick preseason games, rather I watch and learn. However, up until the start of the regular season we can use this thread for game discussion or just general NFL news talk. I wish everyone the best this season, let's all give the books a good beating!
Highlights
- Winning SBR's Beat the Prick Contest
- 50-25-1 ATS Regular season
- 15-3 ATS Weeks 1-4
- 7 Straight winning weeks
- 19 of 21 weeks .500 or better
- Correctly picking Saints +4.5 to win Superbowl
Lowlights
- 5-7 ATS Weeks 5-7
- 5-5 ATS in playoffs
As you can see, a lot more good than bad last year, but I'd love to eliminate the bad altogether this season. Of course, the best way to do this is learn from past mistakes. For my 5-7 ATS run, there's really nothing I feel I could have done differently. Although I had a couple brutal picks in there that deserved to lose, three of those losses were absolutely terrible beats. Runs like that happen, and we had our fair share of games break our way too so that all evens out in the end. The 5-5 ATS run in the playoffs is a lot more troubling to me, because I recognize how easily I could have avoided it. Simply put, I wasn't nearly selective enough. In the playoffs, assuming you pick one side and total per game that's a grand total of 22 picks you can have. That means I picked almost half of those potential plays, way too high of a ratio. Being honest with myself post playoffs, the 3 plays I was least confident in all lost and I really should have never released them. 5-2 ATS would have been much better than 5-5, but live and learn. That's an area I hope to improve this season.
So here's what to expect for 2010. Like last season, my goal is to finish the year having picked 67% winners or better. I will try and be a bit more selective than last year, but I also feel I can identify opportunity a bit better than last year too, so we'll probably finish the year around 90 plays one again. Also, like last season, all of my plays will be flat bet, I don't assign units to my plays. I do not pick preseason games, rather I watch and learn. However, up until the start of the regular season we can use this thread for game discussion or just general NFL news talk. I wish everyone the best this season, let's all give the books a good beating!
