Kroyrunner's Season Long NFL Thread (55-30-1 ATS in 2009)

**PocketChange** · 10-16-10, 07:59 PM

Nice to see that we both have Giants -10 and Chargers/Rams under as posted plays. Same analysis on the Chargers/Rams game. 70% on the over.

**BobbyXxX** · 10-16-10, 07:59 PM

goodluck kroy hope your week hits big

**doin** · 10-16-10, 08:04 PM

i'll take the giant ML but not mess w the points. lions are horrid.

**stuiees** · 10-16-10, 08:04 PM

thanks kroy and gl to everyone

**doin** · 10-16-10, 08:07 PM

"and losing other people money, " quote Kroy.

Dear Sir, If i choose to simple do what you say and not handicap on my own...geez... can't imagine Kroy. Takes a lot of guts to post here as a picker, and I commend you on that.

**simonk83** · 10-17-10, 01:48 AM

Thanks Kroy

**peeteer** · 10-17-10, 03:34 AM

Good Luck kroy

**belvedere86** · 10-17-10, 05:37 AM

lets go 5-0!

**gv12** · 10-17-10, 06:38 AM

GL today kroy, hope you get a sweep

**frankzig** · 10-17-10, 06:59 AM

I likw the over on pats bol

**Tatsu** · 10-17-10, 08:22 AM

Good luck this week Kroy, I really like that Falcons/Eagles under play

**G's pks** · 10-17-10, 08:32 AM

GL today boys...will check in later to see how things went.

**mark2010** · 10-17-10, 09:21 AM

lets cash nfl today. yesterday i cashed big with iowa. gl all today with yall plays.

**simonk83** · 10-17-10, 02:33 PM

BOL

**22dsnyd22** · 10-17-10, 03:24 PM

brutal losses. I keep winning on saturday and getting destroyed on sunday. Might have start playing one nfl play a week.

**jhack704** · 10-17-10, 03:35 PM

Originally posted by 22dsnyd22

brutal losses. I keep winning on saturday and getting destroyed on sunday. Might have start playing one nfl play a week.

who u follow on saturdays? i know nfl is bs this yr

**tonyp0387** · 10-17-10, 03:50 PM

You quiting yet Kroy?

**daneault23** · 10-17-10, 03:52 PM

Originally posted by 22dsnyd22

brutal losses. I keep winning on saturday and getting destroyed on sunday. Might have start playing one nfl play a week.

Same here

I won a bunch yesterday, just to give it back and then some today

**simonk83** · 10-17-10, 03:52 PM

Originally posted by tonyp0387

You quiting yet Kroy?

Don't be a douche champ.

**phillybadboy** · 10-17-10, 03:55 PM

Originally posted by g's pks

gl today boys...will check in later to see how things went.

i think you already knew

**ssk13809** · 10-17-10, 03:58 PM

Breaking News!

Kroy bounces back after some bad weeks with....

a 1-4 week

And for another week, SSK extends his lead. Same old story here guys. Kroy just give me the 300 points. Those were some awful picks no offense.

**bobbyk1133** · 10-17-10, 04:00 PM

Didn't really understand your picks this week. Double digit spread is always playing with fire, and what in the PHI/ATL game indicated an under? I liked the BAL pick but not at +2.5. Could have gotten it all week at +3 and late in the week if you shopped around or bought the half point.

What in your system is giving you an edge? All your writeups included basic rankings the whole world already knows. Might want to look into DVOA and other stats that aren't from CBSsports.com.

**phillybadboy** · 10-17-10, 04:02 PM

Originally posted by ssk13809

Breaking News! Kroy bounces back after some bad weeks with.... a 1-4 week And for another week, SSK extends his lead. Same old story here guys. Kroy just give me the 300 points. Those were some awful picks no offense.

good job

**ssk13809** · 10-17-10, 04:05 PM

Originally posted by phillybadboy

good job

I am just really happy the Rams won. Won big on them for ML in real life. That puts me 2-0 for the year in documented ML picks on underdogs with odds worse than +200.

Also, 2-0 in the contest with Kroy so far this week ATS. Already giving me the victory for the week.

All the usual. Like I said, as season goes on, I understand each team better, and practically become unstoppable.

**22dsnyd22** · 10-17-10, 04:26 PM

Originally posted by jhack704

who u follow on saturdays? i know nfl is bs this yr

No one really for NCAA. I compile own stats and try to find an edge. I use the forum to talk me out of certain plays but usually dont tail anyone. I like the effort Ralphie puts forth for NCAA football. ..............

As for NFL Ive been tailing KROY this year since week1 based on his efforts last year and ignoring my own leans. I did this because last year I had good college football year but had a bad year in NFL. Last 2 weeks i quit tailing totals but this week I tailed on giants -10 and baltimore +2.5.

**phillybadboy** · 10-17-10, 04:26 PM

Originally posted by ssk13809

I am just really happy the Rams won. Won big on them for ML in real life. That puts me 2-0 for the year in documented ML picks on underdogs with odds worse than +200. Also, 2-0 in the contest with Kroy so far this week ATS. Already giving me the victory for the week. All the usual. Like I said, as season goes on, I understand each team better, and practically become unstoppable.

if those people have something bad to say about you, at least say something give credit when you win

**GenuineBettor** · 10-17-10, 05:08 PM

how did it end?

**kroyrunner89** · 10-17-10, 05:24 PM

First and foremost all the credit in the world to SSK for extending his lead on me yet again this week. Congrats sir, however you can quit calling for me to give up because I'm going to see this through to the end. I'll be back either later tonight or tomorrow to address the poor results so far, sorry to all the unfortunate tailers so far

**kroyrunner89** · 10-17-10, 05:24 PM

Week 6 Record: 1-4 ATS
Overall Record: 11-18 ATS

**phillybadboy** · 10-17-10, 05:46 PM

keep at it kroy, i want you to finish this season the whole season

**simonk83** · 10-17-10, 10:03 PM

Yep, it can only get better

**phillybadboy** · 10-17-10, 10:10 PM

Originally posted by simonk83

Yep, it can only get better

or worse or stay the same

**tonyp0387** · 10-17-10, 10:51 PM

Your system makes no sense at all and has no angle your better off throwing darts.

**ssk13809** · 10-17-10, 11:10 PM

Originally posted by kroyrunner89

First and foremost all the credit in the world to SSK for extending his lead on me yet again this week.

You congratulated me too early. I was 2-0 when you congratulated me. Finished 4-0 for the week.

And as I said before, I get better as season goes on and I learn more about the teams. What this implies here Kroy, is that you already have been buried this week, and its only going to get harder. You have no shot at winning the contest now.

**kroyrunner89** · 10-17-10, 11:21 PM

Originally posted by tonyp0387

Your system makes no sense at all and has no angle your better off throwing darts.

Lol it was pretty ugly today, although notice I didn't bump any of system 1 for a reason. I hated them all, I knew it could very well be an ugly week for them. At least I can still recognize that, unfortunately I just bumped other losers instead. The system results will be there, although I will readily admit it's been laughable so far. This is what I get for thinking it's ready to launch early based off of two years of data.

Okay so generic big post about how things are going poorly, blah blah blah lots of exclamation points, assurance that things will get better. Let's just skip that for now. Fact of the matter is I've been better fade material than anything so far this season. I've mulled over how I should deal with this; keep going as normal, take the next couple weeks off to reset mentally, the options are endless. Basically I'm just going to go back to square one and try to get back on the right path here. And square one includes me reminding everyone (which I haven't for a while), past performance does not guarantee future results. I used to preach that constantly, wish I had continued to because it's something that I think I lost sight of and some tailers might have lost sight of too. I'm over here on my little self appointed pedestal thinking that I was so sharp last year, finding the plays that I loved and virtually ignored by the public and being right the vast majority of the time. I've clearly tried to be a bit too sharp this year as I've obviously slipped into the pattern of fading heavy public favorites without the necessary statistical support that I had last year and thinking I can get away with it because I'm "sharp enough". Well, no more of that, right now I'm just like any average Joe putting money into my bookie's pocket. And I hate it.

So here's what's going to happen, first and foremost I'm getting back to my selective ways, particularly over these next two weeks. We may not have more than two plays either of these weeks, I'm not sure, but if I'm recommending it I better love it and I better love it for the right reasons. Depending on how these two weeks go and if I feel like I'm starting to get back on track, I may begin to open things back up a bit, especially with my system fully running at a point of the year where I KNOW it will be ready. All the while, I'm going to keep repeating the same message to myself again and again, "Past performance does not indicate future results". My system could win every play, it could lose every play. Who knows, each year is a little different. I'd like to believe it's more likely to succeed than not based on its long and successful track record, but I'm not going to slip into a pattern of recommending a system play on that basis alone.

So, I'm going to hopefully begin my path back to respectability. This isn't going to be a one week fix, it may not even be a one month fix. Our overall record is going to be on the wrong side of .500 for a little while now. I've got to reset mentally to thinking I'm 0-0 and just chip away a little at a time, because if I try to rush back to the right side of .500 picks will get recommended for the wrong reasons. Can't promise things will get better, all I can promise is that I'll keep giving it my best. Hopefully by year's end that will have been enough and we can escape the season with a profit. Good luck to anyone still along for the ride and please remember to keep using money management the rest of the way. I truly hope I can turn this around, BOL to all!