New here. Tracking NFL plays.

[Twiz]

Burgh/Seattle under 47 1.2 for 1

[Twiz]

SF +8 1.1 for 1
SF ML .31 for 1

[Twiz]

12-16 : -2.95 (spread)
24-18 : +7.16 (totals)
17-9 : +9.93 (ML)
0-4 : -2.14 (teasers/parlays)
+12 YTD

Had a real good read on this week apparently. Nice run from thurs to now...lotta the plays sweatless as well which is rare in the nfl.

Got two I feel REAL good about tonight.

Pats ML 1.9 to win 1.5
Pats/Denver over 42.5 2 to win 2.

[Twiz]

12-16 : -2.95 (spread)
25-18 : +9.16 (totals)
17-10 : +8.03 (ML)
0-4 : -2.14 (teasers/parlays)
+12.1 YTD

Looks like 8-4 on the day..10-5 on the week. Hit almost all the bigger plays.

MNF action...
Ravens +3.5 1.58 for 1.5
Ravens ML .5 for .85.
Over 41 .55 for .5.
Tease Ravens +9.5 Panthers(next week) -.5 1.1 for 1.

Sorta lean under actually but numbers say over and its been killing totals all season so I'm playing it just a little smaller..

[Twiz]

13-16 : -1.45 (spread)
26-18 : +9.66 (totals)
18-10 : +8.88 (ML)
0-4 : -2.14 (teasers/parlays)
+14.95 YTD

Pending:
Panthers -.5 1.1 for 1 (2nd part of tease)

Knew I shoulda got more off on that over but I'll take 3-0 on the night and first half of a teaser. That's 13-5 on the week. Always get hot towards end of season..

Just 1 early one this week...Ravens +5.5 1.1 for 1.

Most of the spreads are ridiculously close to my numbers...so gonna need some favorable movement for ats plays. See 3-4 totals that I'm waiting to hammer...gonna see if I can get some favorable movement. Detroit almost certainly a play on thurs...NO +7 almost certainly a small play to hedge the Carolina piece of the teaser.

[Twiz]

Lions ML .71 to win 1.

I want to play lions ats also but even 5d reduced is +3 -110 right now. Gotta be a lotta GB money on the way so I imagine I'll get +3 +100 or even +3.5 -110. Either of those would be auto plays...will likely even play +3 -110 if that's all I can get. Remember these teams played 3 weeks ago and not much has changed...I think we're looking at a very similar game as last time...maybe each team scoring an extra 6-7...say 24-23...either way lotta value on lions here.

Also lucky I got ravens in last night when line went up...already down to +4. For anyone reading this, I'd still play ravens at +4 as I think they're a very live dog SU. My numbers actually have 22-21 ravens although its always hard to tell if they over/under compensate for injuries. +3.5 or better is valuable enough to play. ML value disappearing but if it reappears I'll be on that as well.

Bengals/Browns over will be auto play regardless but 5d waiting to put the game up...probably waiting for QB news but frankly won't make much a difference to me. I see a couple books offering 44 but I could see this number dropping as low as 42.5 in which case I'd hammer it 2 units. Saints as a I mentioned before...like oakland and buffalo as well just trying to decipher what types of games those will be so I know whether to play ats or ml...also gonna get steelers involved regardless of QB but 7 is too many so we'll wait. Honestly hoping Ben doesn't play because I think 3 or 4 would be incredible spot here.

[Twiz]

13-16 : -1.45 (spread)
26-18 : +9.66 (totals)
18-10 : +8.88 (ML)
0-4 : -2.14 (teasers/parlays)
+14.95 YTD

Pending:
Panthers -.5 1.1 for 1 (2nd part of tease)
Ravens +5.5 1.1 for 1
Lions ML .71 for 1

Adding: Lions +3 1.05 for 1
Bengals/Browns over 43.5 2.75 for 2.5

Tidying up and getting those 2 plays locked in. Bengals/Browns over is my largest play so far for the thread. I personally play up to 3 units if the play LARGELY fits my gut and my numbers, but I usually keep it to 2 for the thread because my system rarely produces a larger play than 2x...and the goal of this thread is gambling discipline and complete objectivity. However this total is the first play that actually registers as a 3 unit play...so I'm going to play it for a tad more than normal.

I realize austin davis is mostly an unknown, and I am admittedly really lacking valid data to get even a reasonable guess on his impact. This bet banks on Davis being SIMILAR to mccown/manziel production. I think they have enough weapons to get to 20 here which makes 43.5 a breeze. This the bengals easiest game in a tough stretch...I could see D loosening up a little. Decent garbage time potential and well...we got an equation for an over. Again, I run the numbers and try to fit my narrative to those numbers. My analysis doesn't always play out but more times than not my pick does. I'm a math major not a sports guru. Take it for w/e its worth. 30-20 bengals.

Still waiting on oakland, buffalo, saints, steelers. Books eliminating some of the value on the first 3 there with overjuiced nonsense..I got faith a good line will pop up somewhere before sunday though. Another sneaky pick I'm trying to get involved is Giants. I got this at 23-23 so I'd love to steal a number like 3 or a ML above +125. Haven't looked into it yet but gotta imagine money is coming in on jets which always make me a lil more comfy. GL all.

[Twiz]

Lions/Pack over 46.5 .51 for .5

Mostly a personal lean as numbers put this at 47 which isn't enough value to warrant a play. But leaned this way all week and told myself if it came back down at a decent price I'd go small.

[Twiz]

13-17 : -2.5 (spread)
27-18 : +10.16 (totals)
18-11 : +8.17 (ML)
0-4 : -2.14 (teasers/parlays)
+13.69 YTD

Pending:
Panthers -.5 1.1 for 1 (2nd part of tease)
Ravens +5.5 1.1 for 1
Bengals/Browns over 43.5 2.75 for 2.5

Can't cap shit like that. I'm sick. Had the game scripted perfectly...was set to end 23-21 or 24-23 which is right where my numbers put it...would have been up units on either scenario. Luckily I got that over play in as a sort of hedge against lions...softened the blow. Anyway shit happens...

3-4 more plays to come before sunday but lines haven't moved for me so still holding out.

[Twiz]

Colts +10 1.1 for 1
Colts ML .28 for 1

[Twiz]

14-18 : -2.6 (spread)
27-19 : +7.41 (totals)
18-12 : +7.89 (ML)
1-4 : -1.14 (teasers/parlays)
+11.56 YTD

Tidying up. Got close on that large play...but couple real close field goals ruined it. Felt like I had the right side though but clearly not. Might add something small for tomorrow I have a hard time ignoring mnf. Small loss this week after a monster week 12...will get it going in the right direction again for week 14.

[Twiz]

Tease 1.15 for 1
Boys +9
Panthers -1 (next week)

Same tease I did last week...MNF dog and panthers to stay undefeated. My numbers put MNF at around 22-20 washington...was hoping to snatch +3.5 or 4 with dallas as I really like the side just numbers don't agree at current price. So I figure if I'm off by a TD +9 is still good so teaser should be safe...GL all. Also gut lean under but vegas just a little too sharp w/ their number for it to warrant a play.

[Twiz]

14-18 : -2.6 (spread)
27-19 : +7.41 (totals)
18-12 : +7.89 (ML)
1-4 : -1.14 (teasers/parlays)
+11.56 YTD

Pending:
Panthers -1 1.15 for 1 (2nd part of tease)

Had a pretty good read on mnf. Couple early ones this week...

Bucs -3.5 3.3 for 3
Bills ML 1.7 for 1.5
Texans +3.5 .77 for 7

Bucs line is absurd...I have this game 30-21. Don't even have to check injuries as no player worth that much. I imagine the line will climb closer to my number and I might try to play for a middle if it gets high enough. Comfy at 3.5 though. Be back in a day or two with some more plays. See some real good MLs this week might get a small parlay in.

[Twiz]

Panthers/Chiefs/Bucs/Pack ML parlay 1 to win 2.

Will hedge with cowboys at 430 sunday if first 3 look good...cowboys the only one I'm mildly worried about.

[Twiz]

Giants -1 1.15 for 1

[Twiz]

TNF small action.

Under 47 .77 for .7
Vikings ML .24 for 1

[Twiz]

14-18 : -2.6 (spread)
27-19 : +7.41 (totals)
18-12 : +7.89 (ML)
1-4 : -1.14 (teasers/parlays)
+11.56 YTD

Pending:
Panthers -1 1.15 for 1 (2nd part of tease)
Bucs -3.5 3.3 for 3
Bills ML 1.7 for 1.5
Texans +3.5 .77 for 7
Panthers/Chiefs/Bucs/Pack ML parlay 1 to win 2.
Giants -1 1.15 for 1
Vikings/Cards under 47 .77 for .7
Vikings ML .24 for 1

Tidying up.

[Twiz]

Lotta value on the board this week...could be another big one like two weeks ago (13-5)...

Skins +3.5 1.15 for 1.
Cincy ML 1.4 for 1.
Balty +10 1.1 for 1
Balty ML .25 for 1

Those finally dropped into my price range...likely no more ats plays this week...like detroit but doubt it gets into my range. Possibility at a few totals but need a lil movement in my favor to lock in the plays.

[Twiz]

15-20 : -6 (spread)
28-19 : +8.11 (totals)
18-14 : +4.3 (ML)
2-5 : -1.14 (teasers/parlays)
+5.27 YTD

Pending:
Texans +3.5 .77 for 7
Giants -1 1.15 for 1

Got killed this week...worst week of season by far. Told myself I'd buy back on saints if it got to 6 but had a long night and didn't wake up in time. Terrible plays all around. Will get back next week.

[Twiz]

16-21 : -5.77 (spread)
28-19 : +8.11 (totals)
18-14 : +4.3 (ML)
2-5 : -1.14 (teasers/parlays)
+5.5 YTD

Will have the couple early ones later tonight or tomorrow early afternoon as usual. Wish I could say I'll try harder this week but we playing based on numbers. First glance says we should have a few more totals to play which is good news according to the record above..

[Twiz]

ATL/Jax under 49 1.1 for 1
Zona/Philly under 51 1.65 for 1.5
GB/Oak over 46.5 2.2 for 2
Bucs +1.5 1.1 for 1
Raiders +3 1.5 for 1.5
Zona ML 1.7 for 1
Bills -1 1.1 for 1

That's all for now...Jets rated as top play this week but I'm not touching it yet. Extremely suspicious line.

[Twiz]

Bucs/Rams over 41 1.65 for 1.5

[Twiz]

Took a month off for holidays etc. Was still betting just wasn't taking the time to post. Last week 4-1 after going about even 3-4 in a row...only loser was minny ML smh. Figured I'd come back and post some winners to end the season.

KC +5 2.2 for 2
KC ML .5 for 1
Panthers ML 1.15 for 1
Pack/Cards over 50 1.65 for 1.5
Denver ML 4.05 for 1.5
GB +7 1.1 for 1
GB ML .5 to win 1.28

Numbers actually support Zona ATS and ML...but I don't think the numbers are too accurate on GB. There's no way they are as bad as they've been playing 2nd half of season. If KC loses I'm doubling against NE every week till they lose. No way in hell that patchwork team gets another SB this year. Belichick the goat but not enough pieces this year.

Currently sitting on some early season futures for...
KC 75 to 1
Burgh 40 to 1
Denver at a couple different prices...average 15 to 1 (my SB pick all season...still rolling with them)
GB 14 to 1
and some small change on GB vs Denver at about 40 to 1

[Twiz]

Denver +3 4.2 for 4.
Denver ML 1 for 1.45
Zona +3 2 for 2
Zona ML .83 for 1.2

Like both dogs. Like over in AFC and under in NFC but not gonna play them. BoL all. If pats win I'll double up against them in the SB. No faith.

[PREMOSIX]

Den vs ariz sb will be awful n nfl will lose alot of $$ ..cam vs brady is what needs to happen

[Twiz]

18-26 : -8.67 (spread)
31-21 : +9.31 (totals)
22-17 : +7.42 (ML)
2-5 : -1.14 (teasers/parlays)
+6.92 YTD

Updated. Lost a little bit in week 17 and won a good bit in wildcard weekend...didn't post either weeks plays cuz of holidays. Real count is probably a unit or 1.5 units higher but for integrity of the thread we'll only count whats posted.

As far as superbowl goes, I have denver futures (+1475 to win SB...will post screenshot if I end up hedging in anyway) so I'm trying to figure out the smartest way to play it. Gonna let the market adjust to perception and give myself some time to think before I lay a big play...no need to rush. First glance though says 4.5/5 is too many.

This game reminds me HEAVILY of 2 games in recent memory:

2 years ago, we saw a broncos team with a prolific offense go into the superbowl as a short fav against seattle. Seattle boasting an incredible pass rush and an incredible secondary...aka you don't want to go down early to that team. Sure enough, denver goes down early, and never gets back. (I lost big on denver...see the earlier pages of this thread...) The refs allowed the corners to abuse the Denver receivers..."let the boys play" type shit...and peyton simply didn't have enough time for the receivers to find space...pass rush came to quickly...

In 2001, we saw the greatest show on turf enter the SB as a large fav...pats boasted a great pass rush assisted heavily by their outstanding backers. Their secondary speaks for itself...ty law...lawyer milloy...otis smith...etc. One of the best in the last 2 decades for sure (I'm young...can't speak heavily about shit before 2000). Again, the perfect formula for "you don't want to go down early against them"...sure enough rams go down early in the first half, the corners from both teams were allowed to bully the receivers...and what do you know...pats win SU.

I hesitate to draw a 3rd comparison...however it is nearly as relevant. In 2007, the undefeated pats came into the SB as a large fav. Refs kept the whistles in their pockets...a phenomenal giants pass rush gave brady trouble, and giants somehow came away with the win. Again, I wouldn't cite this game as confidently as the others...as the giants didn't go up early, their secondary wasn't elite, and to be frank their was just some miraculous stuff that led to that conclusion. But again...plenty of similarities...

Which brings us to SB50. Carolina looking nearly unstoppable all season...entering as a small fav. Broncos...boasting an ELITE pass rush (incredibly fast as well...which is key against cam), and an ELITE secondary...sound familiar? If the refs keep their whistles to themselves, I personally struggle to find a way that carolina will move the ball. How is someone like ted ginn going to get off the line against an aqib talib...in fact looking at the 4 best broncos coverage men...vs the 4 best receivers on the panthers...I struggle to find a single match up where carolina has an advantage...I invite anyone to say differently. Sure, if carolina establishes the run, which is entirely possible...that could provide cam and his receivers the extra second or two they need to pass efficiently. But if they don't, they're in trouble. And if they go down early, they're in HUGE trouble.

I'm a huge manning fan. I have had broncos picked since week 5 to win the SB. My bias in this analysis is extremely evident...however I don't think I've said anything that's a "stretch"...or anything invalid. Facts are: refs don't like to dictate the superbowl with defensive holding/interference calls. Carolina has an EXTREMELY mediocre receiving core (the actual worst I can remember from a superbowl team), and denver has an EXTREMELY good pass defense. Brady (granted...1 dimensional) with all his weapons manage 18 points against this team. 18 was not enough to beat denver in conf. round, and it won't be enough to beat them in the SB. 24-23 broncos.

Adding a small play for now...Broncos +5 1.05 for 1.

May hedge my future with carolina ML if it drops...no way in hell I play it over -200. Doubt I play it over -180. Would love to tease Denver to +10.5/11 but I have NO idea which way to tease the total...my instinct says tease over, yet 2/3 games I posted above went under, with the 3rd (sea/den) only going over because it was a blowout. For anyone wondering, spreadsheet spits out Carolina -3.5 and the total is within a point...so not much value in the numbers here. More so relying on good ole fashion football analysis. Not sure what that's worth. BOL all. Any discussion welcome.

Edit: typo in units

[Twiz]

19-26 : -7.67 (spread)
31-21 : +9.31 (totals)
22-17 : +7.42 (ML)
2-5 : -1.14 (teasers/parlays)
+7.92 YTD

That's the final total on the season. Can't complain about green. Was actually incredibly invested into the SB and didn't get time to add plays here. I personally got on some Broncos ML small and booked some big money on over and panthers ats. Ended up taking $1200 when all was said and done making it by far my biggest gambling day to date ($50 units in this thread for perspective). That was partially assisted by this...

Each play was .7 units which adds another 6.83 to the total. I won't include it in the YTD since I didn't post it until now, but when I bring this thread back next season I will be sure to post a couple futures and I'll track them separately (this thread is about math...not my 6 month early "hunches"). Couple quick boasts...+1475 is the best number I saw anyone have on Denver. That bet was placed july 26th I believe. I just checked and by the time week 1 came around Denver had already dropped below +1000. Ridiculous value. Did not hedge...rather I practically doubled down. Really was confident in my read on the game...public perception reassured me. Also, my other futures (not in pic) included GB to win the superbowl +1400, GB vs Denver at +4000, Texans to win AFC south at +475, and Bills to make playoffs at +170. I'd say I did alright.

As far as general analysis of my years picks...clearly I didn't pick well ATS. Gonna go game by game and see if there's any trends worth adjusting for...maybe try converting some of the ats fav picks on certain numbers to ML plays...maybe try pairing some more dog MLs with the spreads when I play them....not sure. But I'll get better..

[Twiz]

YEAR 1 (2013-2014)
35-31 spread/ml +7 units
2-4 parlay +.6 Units
+7.6 units

YEAR 2 (2014-2015)
ML/Spread/totals: 34-34 -5.3 units
Parlay: 2-6 -1 units
YTD: -6.3 units

Year 3 (2015-2016)
19-26 : -7.67 (spread)
31-21 : +9.31 (totals)
22-17 : +7.42 (ML)
2-5 : -1.14 (teasers/parlays)
+7.92 YTD

Back for year 4.

[Twiz]

Panthers -3 .55 to win .5.
Panthers/Broncos OVER 40.5 .55 to win .5.

Don't like anything too much tonight, but its season opener and I can't resist playing.

[Twiz]

0-1 : -.55 (spread)
1-0 : +.5 (totals)
0-0 : +0 (ML)
0-0 : +0 (parlays/teasers)
-.05 YTD

1-1 on thurs. Had a pretty rough day today but didn't get around to posting the plays. Usually takes me 2-3 weeks to get a feel for the teams anyway.

MNF
Lers/Skins under 49.5 .55 to win .5.
Rams/9ers under 42.5 .55 to win .5.

I have these games at 47 and 40 respectively. Not enough of a discrepancy to play either of them big, but they worth a small play.

[Twiz]

0-1 : -.55 (spread)
2-1 : +.45 (totals)
0-0 : +0 (ML)
0-0 : +0 (parlays/teasers)
-.1 YTD

Jets/Bills over 40.5 1.1 to win 1.

[Twiz]

Pending:
Jets/Bills over 40.5 1.1 to win 1.

Adding:
Phins/pats over 41 1.15 to win 1.
9ers/panthers over 45.5 .88 to win .8.
9ers +13.5 .55 to win .5.
9ers ML .17 to win 1.
Skins -2.5 .77 to win .7.

[Twiz]

0-1 : -.55 (spread)
3-1 : +1.45 (totals)
0-0 : +0 (ML)
0-0 : +0 (parlays/teasers)
+.9 YTD

Pending:
Phins/pats over 41 1.15 to win 1.
9ers/panthers over 45.5 .88 to win .8.
9ers +13.5 .55 to win .5.
9ers ML .17 to win 1.
Skins -2.5 .77 to win .7.

Adding:
Saints/Giants under 53.5 1.65 for 1.5. (I have this at 27-21...good value here)
Hawks/Rams over 38 1.87 to win 1.7. (I have this at 24-20...if this happened later in the season it'd be AT LEAST a 2 unit play but looks like a trap and I am not ready to trust the alg completely so early in the season)
Rams ML .2 to win .5.
Falcons +4.5 .55 to win .5.
Falcons ML .28 to win .5.

I'll be back sunday night to update record and play the SNF game. Other than SNF/MNF, this is this weeks card. Looks like a lot of volume (11 plays? not counting SNF/MNF), but all these small plays are more intended for tracking the record (as opposed to making $). They are getting spit out as "leans" per say, but it won't be until week 4 or 5 that we start seeing some more concrete plays. That said...Jets/Bills over, Giants/Saints under, and Hawks/Rams over were graded as the real value plays this week and that's why they're being played as such. (Phins/Pats over as well, but I personally don't like that one as much because of a possible garoppolo exaggeration.) The totals were on fire last season (60% and documented), and I have no reason to believe that won't be the case again this year. BOL anyone reading this.

[Twiz]

1-2 : -.6 (spread)
6-2 : +2.88 (totals)
2-1 : +.83 (ML)
0-0 : +0 (parlays/teasers)
+3.11 YTD

Adding:
Vikings ML .87 to win 1.

Not a bad week so far. Only big miss was that seattle total. Vikings tonight...over/under looks spot on so no play there.

[Twiz]

1-2 : -.6 (spread)
6-2 : +2.88 (totals)
3-1 : +1.83 (ML)
0-0 : +0 (parlays/teasers)
+4.11 YTD

Gonna try to keep this rolling.

Week 3:
Texans/Pats over 40.5 1.87 for 1.7. (should be a 2 unit play but screaming trap similar to rams/seahawks)
Browns +10 1.87 for 1.7. (I made this 23-19...)
9ers/Hawks over 40.5 1.87 for 1.7.
Chargers/Colts under 52 1.3 to win 1.3.

I'll have more plays as the week progresses...Just getting early plays in where I think the line will move against me.