New here. Tracking NFL plays.

[Twiz]

Had a good year last year before wasting all profits on basketball. Decent year so far this year turned 100 to 300. College kid bankroll. I bet more underdogs than favorites and more home teams than away. Love home underdogs. Pittsburgh bias so stay away from my Steelers picks they've proven low percentage. No teasers and very few parlays(usually ML). Can't avoid betting Thurs/Sunday/Monday night games so I hit those at lower %. Don't read too much into line movement but I try to avoid betting with Joe Public. So far I've been awful at totals something like 1-5 so won't bet many of those. All that said I'm at 300% bankroll so far this season so my ATS picks have been good.
/lifestory

Let's win some money.

Really really really like Detroit at first glance. I sort of like Philly and Cleveland and will find a bet for NE vs MIA(been on the right side of NE games every week I played them). Gonna watch the lines bounce around a little and then determine my plays. Felt like underdogs won SU this week a lot I can't imagine that carries into week 8 so maybe an ML parlay. Funky card but doesn't look impossible.

[Twiz]

DEGEN SPECIAL

Saw the line go to 6.5 and bought the half point. Don't see Carolina putting up more than 24 so if the Bucs can put up even 17 this shouldn't lose. Seeing everyone and their mom on Carolina which makes me feel better. I'm thinking low scoring so +7 has a lot of value in a 40-45 point game. Doubt the Bucs win straight up.

Bucs +7

0-0

[Twiz]

Eagles -4.5

Been watching this line and don't see it getting any lower. The Giants are awful. Even if they shut down Shady like they did AP, Philly has enough weapons to abuse this team. Only argument for Giants backers is that NFC East teams have a reputation for splitting 1-1.

[Twiz]

Detroit -3....Tough to see Dallas covering that +3 on the road again this week. Liked this one all week was just hoping public could move the line my way a bit more.

[Twiz]

Miami +7...I've bet NE game all but 2 weeks this season and have yet to lose one, regardless of whether I'm betting with or against them. Feel comfy with this one after buying a half point. Prolly gonna bet on the cards here soon, and might look at the browns if they go down a TD early. Money team!

[hotshotz3]

best of luck man...i did same to track my plays, had a pretty good year last year, up and down first several weeks, but red hot last 2 in NFL...every time I post I seem to be avg, but if I just update my spreadsheet or bet without posting, I seem to win lol..might have to keep my mouth shut and just bet..

I like your Lions play w/ pub all over Dallas was hoping to get 2.5 as well but staying away, like Miami as well you got a btter line.

this is a tough week though, Eagles were at the top of my radar but it may be a light week for me

good luck

[Twiz]

Was due for a bad day. I can't believe Philly and Detroit's turnovers...they look like 0-7 teams...Looking at Pitt(homer) and Cardinals at 4 o clock. I'll post what I bet. Public winning money today they needed it after the last 2 weeks.

[Twiz]

Tryna right some wrongs here with Pitt +14.5 (slightly homer) +100. Let's see it. Rough day so far. 0-3 posted got away with a live cleveland bet that covered but obviously won't count it.

[Twiz]

Pack tonight in the degen special

[Twiz]

What a weekend. Phins choke away a lead and get their field goal BLOCKED to prevent my push. Detroit turns it over 100 times and manages to not cover and almost not win. Vick goes out in the first quarter and the giants win without scoring a single TD. To top it all off the 0-3 start kept me from betting Arizona which would have been a sweatless cover. Definitely some bad beats this weekend. Expected a bad weekend and escaped at 2-3 (3-3 but never posted my live cleveland bet) and down 1 unit for the purposes of this thread. Will be playing the degen special tonight likely the RAMS because...
1. Total is low. Seattle's offense has struggled on the road a few times this year. Low scoring game favors the double digit dog.
2. Double digit favorites have yet to lose this weekend (SF, GB, NO, DEN). Can't imagine they go 5-0 in a weekend, although this is not "capping" which gets shunned here.
3. Public is up $ on the weekend and will undoubtedly be betting Seattle (my app has it north of 70%). I don't try to "fade the public" but I do avoid betting on the same side as huge public favs.
4. Intradivisional...nuff said.

RAMS +13

Might look at SEA TT under 28.5 as well.

[Twiz]

With that rams bet I got back to 3-3 on the weekend and 3-4 on the thread. In hindsight should have bet that SEA TT also but I'm not complaining. Feels good using primetime games to even out from negative instead of losing all my profit in the weekend. Looking at next weeks card gonna see how the lines move and I'll post my plays. Guarantee I get above .500 by the end of next weekend let's go.

[charlieg70]

Gl Twiz

[Twiz]

Locked in Titans -3 at +105. If it looks too easy it probably is, but hey...Also started a parlay with Dolphins +3, SEA ML, and Carolina ML. If Dolphins cover tonight it should easily hit. Actually sort of like Cinci here but Phins are on a slide, at home, with public jerking off the Bungals...so its Phins or nothing and I'm a degen so that means PHINS. Happy Halloween. Turn up.

[Twiz]

Looking at Jets, Chargers, Philly, and Pittsburgh for next week. I will have bets on the KC/BUF game and the HOU/IND game as well just trying to decide which way to bet each game. Might bet CLE/BALT but right now it looks like cleveland or nothing and I dont feel good about that. Looks like a lot of bets so I'm gonna try to slim down here and pick my spots.

Pittsburgh homer but that feels like a lock...steelers always play Pats tough and steelers in general are in 1 score games. I'd like wait for NE to score and bet live but I think for Steelers to cover they go up early so a little confused. Think Jets D locks Brees down like they do Brady and Jets might win that straight up if Geno holds it together. Just my thoughts don't expect anyone to take them for much till I win money. Parlay I started last night looks good.

YTD 3-4

[Twiz]

Added jets and chargers don't have my computer right now. I'll have more plays for the 4 o'clock games

[Twiz]

I want to load up on Kansas City but can't bring myself to. Might bet live

[Twiz]

Burgh and balty for the 4 o clock games today has been good if SD pulls it out I'll be perfect on the day.

[Twiz]

Parlay hit 2 to 1 went 2-3 otherwise but up a unit its Houston or nothing might wait to bet live tho

[Twiz]

Houston wins 2 to 1 odds lets go

[Twiz]

Damn! Chargers got ******, burgh got blown out, and I bet against my own parameters on Balty and lost. Looking at 4-7 YTD, down 3 Units, and 1-0 Parlays up 2 Units, leaving me down 1 unit going into next week. I'll obviously be betting the degen special tonight but right now its Bears or nothing and I despise the bears. I made this thread after having 3 hot weeks in the previous 4 so I expected a little regression. 2 difficult weeks (only down 1 unit in thread, pretty much at the same actual bankroll due to an unposted live bet last week) but I have faith a hot one will follow!

[joco]

Was a tough day yesterday

[Twiz]

Forgot to count the Tennessee play I posted in the post with my parlay...so that actually makes me 5-7 +0 units on the year due to my 2 unit parlay. Leaning GB tonight but its Bears or nothing so might play an O/U or a TT...not sure...will post in an hour or two.

[Twiz]

Under 54

[Twiz]

Sweat a little bit going into the 4th but cashed. I'll be back for a Thursday play.

YTD 6-7
1-0 parlay
+1 unit

[Twiz]

Really liking next week's card. Strong early leans on Lions, Cardinals...Think Atlanta San Diego and Dallas are strongest underdogs. Might bet under on Denver game from here on out doubling my units...Can't go 16-0 surely...lol. Plus we've seen chargers D show up at home already this year. Sorta like Minnesota on Thurs but not sure yet...might be a better bet somewhere in there. Like Cinci will probably stay away though Ravens off divisional loss...Just some thoughts partially for myself...

[Twiz]

Locked in cardinals ML at -130. Line will probably get better but I'm not taking any risks I REALLY like this game.

Probably gonna play Vikings for Thursday but gonna wait to see if the line gets to 3 even though I think they win SU.

My other 4 plays will LIKELY (haven't locked yet) be
SD +7
SD/DEN U57 (playing this every week until it hits starting this week)
ATL +6 (gonna see if the line will move my way and maybe buy it to 7...seattle's offense is WEAK)
Cinci -1.5 (like this alot with Cinci on a long week off a loss and people STILL overrating balty and thinking they'll bounce back...)

Don't want to jinx anything but this looks like the best card in a few weeks...

YTD
6-7 spreads
1-0 parlay
+1 unit

[Twiz]

Locked in a parlay Packers ML and Colts ML bet .75 units to win 1 unit. Liking packers and the under I don't think there's anyway they lose back to back at home...public largely overreacting to Foles in addition to Rodgers being out...Wish I had the balls to go bigger but right now I'm inching my way into this week because I see a LOT of plays I like and I'm trying to be careful here. That Arizona line is moving my way which makes me feel better I think -130 on the ML was a good number after all.

[Twiz]

Can't stay away from action and have been decent on parlays this year when I start them with the Thurs night game for whatever that's worth...Pretty much figuring both these teams come out and try to run the ball...Skins can't win on the road, AP controls this game...this game screams stay away but unfortunately I can't do that lol...

Parlayed Minnesota ML(+100) and Packers ML(-120)...I know this gives me two bets possibly riding on seneca wallace but for some reason I'm feeling pretty good about that game. Only risking .5 units to win 1.25 units...if I lose it won't be the end of the world.

YTD
6-7 spread
1-0 parlay
+1 unit

Pending:
Arizona ML 1.3 to win 1
GB ML and Colts ML .75 to win 1
GB ML and Vikings ML .5 to win 1.25

[2daBank]

zona gm so tough.. i love zona in ways but they scare the shit out of me vs teams with strong pass rushes as palmer a statue and the oline not very good.. i think young keenum will struggle with this zona d and will prob make the first few mistakes of his young and what i think good career but zona secondary some ball hawks he dealing with wade phillips as coach and not having the guy who calls the plays.. hard to get a grip on a gm where i think both qbs turn it over a few times as hard to project if those turnovers directly lead to scores or keep points off the board?

i have no clue bout tonights gm, think im staying away..pretty sure i like the pack.. gl bro

[Twiz]

zona gm so tough.. i love zona in ways but they scare the shit out of me vs teams with strong pass rushes as palmer a statue and the oline not very good.. i think young keenum will struggle with this zona d and will prob make the first few mistakes of his young and what i think good career but zona secondary some ball hawks he dealing with wade phillips as coach and not having the guy who calls the plays.. hard to get a grip on a gm where i think both qbs turn it over a few times as hard to project if those turnovers directly lead to scores or keep points off the board?

i have no clue bout tonights gm, think im staying away..pretty sure i like the pack.. gl bro

Yeah not sure exactly why I'm so confident on the zona game...houston showed potential last week against a good team(who played shitty) so I think the line compensates a lil...fact is we got a 3-1 team at home(their home schedule harder than away schedule so far) vs a 1-3 team on the road...zona off a bye...foster not healthy...only think that makes it not a LOCK is cuz carson can't stop throwing picks...zona could "theoretically" be a 1 loss team without those turnovers...

Definitely thinking this game stays low though...zona will run to avoid picks and zona d too good for anything houston got especially if threat of foster isn't there...Under probably a good play but always hard to bet under that 40/41 number even though I feel like those have been covering all year...don't know the stat or care but stl/sea, bunch of afc north games...all gone under that 40 or low 40s number.

And yeah tonight I'm just being a degen, actually been hitting thurs real good so far this year so we'll see. Saw you mention in your thread that you don't like 1st half under but both these teams will come out running and both Ds know that shit...Think any scoring drive will be a long one which helps that alot...prolly won't bet it but i could prolly talk myself into it lol...gl bank

[2daBank]

Yeah not sure exactly why I'm so confident on the zona game...houston showed potential last week against a good team(who played shitty) so I think the line compensates a lil...fact is we got a 3-1 team at home(their home schedule harder than away schedule so far) vs a 1-3 team on the road...zona off a bye...foster not healthy...only think that makes it not a LOCK is cuz carson can't stop throwing picks...zona could "theoretically" be a 1 loss team without those turnovers...

Definitely thinking this game stays low though...zona will run to avoid picks and zona d too good for anything houston got especially if threat of foster isn't there...Under probably a good play but always hard to bet under that 40/41 number even though I feel like those have been covering all year...don't know the stat or care but stl/sea, bunch of afc north games...all gone under that 40 or low 40s number.

And yeah tonight I'm just being a degen, actually been hitting thurs real good so far this year so we'll see. Saw you mention in your thread that you don't like 1st half under but both these teams will come out running and both Ds know that shit...Think any scoring drive will be a long one which helps that alot...prolly won't bet it but i could prolly talk myself into it lol...gl bank

ive been playing the 1st half under for 2 years. it back to being in the black on the year, honestly as hard as it is to cap teams playing like this and given how much i dislike this gm anyway i dont think it a horrible idea, i still think it will come out on top at end of season... or simply gm under, should be lot of rushing, just gotta hope gm holds true to line and stays close..

dont get me wrong i really like zona, they been right behind panthers as one of most underrated teams all yr in my eyes.. it just teams that can rush the passer freak me out vs them, palmer fine if he has time but the line not real strong and he cant create his own space.. i do love the cards defense vs keenum tho, think the kid will have a tough week.. not sure on total cause im thinking 4 turnovers at least and those hard to predict whether they create points or prevent them...

hope minny gets it done for you..

[Twiz]

Vikes pulled through. Didn't even watch the game I was enjoying the stanford oregon game watching under cash easy...good start to nfl week. Just need GB to pull through and that's some sweatless parlaying.

My final looks for this weekend...none of them locked yet...
Oakland +7.5 and the Under- simply cuz its too many points
Atlanta +5.5 and the Under - just pissed cuz the number dropped so much...think they win SU possibly
Chargers and the Under - really really like these no matter where they close...just think I'll get better value at gametime. My books +7 is juiced and the total will keep rising.
GB - just not gonna put too much at stake on one team.

I'm typically a shitty total guy so I'll prolly pussy out on the OAK/ATL unders...Also leaning DET and Cinci but both those are gonna be public plays and the line movement suggests the other side...I realize none of that means shit and I'll never make a bet based on it but there are times where i will avoid a bet based on it. See y'all (aka the 0 people in my thread) sunday.


YTD
6-7 spread
1-0 parlay
+1 unit

Pending:
Arizona ML 1.3 to win 1
GB ML and Colts ML .75 to win 1
GB ML and Vikings ML .5 to win 1.25

[Twiz]

Felt like I had a real good read on this week but these lines are going everywhere...confusing the hell out of me. Not sure how this week will go but here's my plays for the 1 o clock games...

Falcons +3.5...think the line has pretty much lost all its value but I really liked this team at +6 and I can't imagine vegas giving out the large of a window to middle...this is either seattle by 7+ or atlanta within 3/winning SU...hopefully the latter...
Bengals ML bet 1 win 1.1...bengals should win this easy and that's why they'll probably lose...lol...Baltimore getting more love than they should at this number and its based off of a loss last week in cleveland...people expecting a bounce back...

Also through in a pleaser...bet .1 units to win 1 unit...
Colts -13.5
Raiders +1.5

Got some more plays in action listed in the post above...best of luck to all and let's win some money...

[Twiz]

Brutal week thus far. Looking down 3.25 units already today...Tough breaks in the GB game...

Looking at Chargers +7 and under 57...Line moved crazy my favor on AZ game I even have enough room to hedge but I'm gonna sit and maybe bet opposite way live. Texans TT under 20 looks good too...

[Twiz]

Bengals staying alive!