2013 NFL System - JM and Modified

[ken23lau]

I guess I'll post halftime plays for tracking purposes

BUF +4
CIN/CLE Under 20.5
DET +0.5/ over 23.5
HOU +1
IND -3.5
ARI/TB under 19

[gofightingirish]

What an awesome start !!

So far 0 and 3...need Redskins to comeback for a 1 and 3 day....great !!!!!

[ken23lau]

TEN PK and DAL/SD over 23.5 was the halftime play for 4PM games

[Jaymac]

don't see how the math on dal/sd over was a play..i'm I missing something?

[Jaymac]

TEN PK and DAL/SD over 23.5 was the halftime play for 4PM games

Don't see how dal/sd over 23.5 was a play. Am I missing something?

[ken23lau]

Halftime total was 34... add the halftime spread of 23.5 and you have a grand total of 57.5, which means there's a 10.5 variance to the full game total of 47.

[ken23lau]

Kinda off topic but not really. Is there a JM NHL thread around here?

[on3]

Halftime record was 5-3 yesterday, correct? That brings the YTD to 14-13

[on3]

system record: 1-0
mod system record: 0-0
units: +1 (3 series pending)
*the rules say play favorites on the ML. i will be posting the spreads and ML for favorites


week 5 plays (lost 3 SU and 3 ATS/lost 2 SU and 2 ATS (MOD)):

(B) Jacksonville +11.5
(B) NY Giants -2.5 (play ML -135)
(A) Philly +2.5 (buy the hook to +3 -125)
(A) STL -11.5
(A) Houston +7 (-125) (MOD)

week 6 potential plays (lost 2 SU and 2 ATS/lost 1 SU and 1 ATS (MOD)):

(B) Pittsburgh PK
tampa bay
atlanta
chicago (MOD)
houston

week 7 potential plays (lost 1 SU and 1 ATS):

green bay
chicago
dallas
ny jets
baltimore
cincy
oakland

note: we have two (B) vs (A) games this coming week. if you are playing the ML on the favorites, then play them as you normally would. if you are playing on the spread, then you can follow what i am doing which is playing the (B) bets for their normal amounts and not playing the (A) opponents. if (A) wins, then i simply play the (C) bet with one extra unit. if (B) wins, then you play the following week as your (A) bet. the third option is to play it normally and drink the juice on the team that loses.

[hagball52]

One option to consider is the JAX/STL game. I won't lay the money line juice on STL at -11.5 but I am looking at teasing both sides of that one. You would have STL at under a touchdown and JAX at plus 3 scores. Just a thought.

[Jaymac]

On3... don't think you back tested college games.. if so, what were results?. if not, in your opinion do you think the system is profitable in NCAA? do you think standards of 13 or greater or greater than 10 can be used or do you think different standards would need to b used ex. greater than 15.. interested in your opinion. thanks again

[Jaymac]

On3... don't think you back tested college games.. if so, what were results?. if not, in your opinion do you think the system is profitable in NCAA? do you think standards of 13 or greater or greater than 10 can be used or do you think different standards would need to b used ex. greater than 15.. interested in your opinion. thanks again

I'm sure you know this but I was referring to the nfl halftime system

[on3]

Ne/cin -- under
det/gb -- under
sea/ind -- over
bal/mia -- no play
phi/nyg -- phi
no/chi -- no
jax/stl -- over
kc/ten --

[BuckeyeKaptn]

I just did a back test for last year (2012) on the 2nd half system. The 10 pt diff went 38/34 ATS (0.6u) and 38/37 O/U (-2.7u). The 13 pt diff were 26/22 ATS (1.8u), 21/17 O/U (2.3u). I made it in my spreadsheet that I can check the W/L for any point differential, and the best I have for ATS is 15...18/11, +5.9u at -110 odds. The best O/U is 16...10/6, +3.4u at -110 odds.

I used covers for the closing line and scores and odds for the 2nd half lines.

I'm going to check a few more years, in case 2012 was an aberration, before I abandon playing it.

[BuckeyeKaptn]

I just did another test, a filter, if you wish, for last year. Any point differential where the HOME team is a play, has positive units...that's a point differential from 2 to 21 ("1" was 58/55 -2.5 units)...ALL have positive units. 10pt dif was 20/12...+6.8u. 13pt dif was 16/7...+8.3u.
This was for only last year, but this new info makes me want to check the previous years. If I can get a play that hits at a 70% (69.6%) rate (the 13 pt spread), I might put a little more on it.

[on3]

halftime system so far 6-1-1 this weekend. den/dal play was over 31 and car/ari was under. both winners.

[BuckeyeKaptn]

halftime system so far 6-1-1 this weekend. den/dal play was over 31 and car/ari was under. both winners.

[Jaymac]

I just did a back test for last year (2012) on the 2nd half system. The 10 pt diff went 38/34 ATS (0.6u) and 38/37 O/U (-2.7u). The 13 pt diff were 26/22 ATS (1.8u), 21/17 O/U (2.3u). I made it in my spreadsheet that I can check the W/L for any point differential, and the best I have for ATS is 15...18/11, +5.9u at -110 odds. The best O/U is 16...10/6, +3.4u at -110 odds.

I used covers for the closing line and scores and odds for the 2nd half lines.

I'm going to check a few more years, in case 2012 was an aberration, before I abandon playing it.

Great work. Looking forward to hearing the results. Really would like to know if playing 10.5 -12.5 is profitable,, and where to draw the line.

Also interesting post regarding the home teams. Based on that information-- when the team qualifies for a play but is not the home team, is it even a profitable play? Just wonder if the home teams covers so frequently that we haven't realized that playing away teams in these circumstances are
-EV. Thoughts?

[on3]

halftime system went 6-1-2 yesterday, YTD 20-14-2

[on3]

system record: 3-0
mod system record: 0-0
units: +3 (3 series pending)
*the rules say play favorites on the ML. i will be posting the spreads and ML for favorites


week 5 plays (lost 3 SU and 3 ATS/lost 2 SU and 2 ATS (MOD)):

(C) Jacksonville +27.5
(C) NY Giants +7.5
(B) Houston -7 (MOD)
(A) Houston -7
(B) Pittsburgh -3
(A) Chicago -7 (-130) (MOD)

week 7 potential plays (lost 2 SU and 2 ATS/lost 1 SU and 1 ATS (MOD)):

(A) Atlanta
tampa bay
chicago
seattle (MOD)
miami (MOD)
new england (MOD)
detroit (MOD)
tennessee (MOD)

week 8 potential plays (lost 1 SU and 1 ATS):

buffalo
new england
detroit
tennessee
seattle
miami
carolina
san diego

note: we have an (A) vs (C) game this coming week. if you are playing the ML on the favorites, then play them as you normally would. if you are playing on the spread, then you can follow what i am doing which is playing the (C) bet for their normal amounts and not playing the (A) opponents.

[on3]

2h play is NYJ +7for the system. after a hot weekend, im going to fade and play ATL myself.

[J.M. Disciple]

2h play is NYJ +7for the system. after a hot weekend, im going to fade and play ATL myself.

hmm any reason why>?

[on3]

if anyone is interested in some fake bets. i put a 3000 SBR point bet on USC Trojans ML -250 tomorrow for shits and giggles.

[4TH AND STUPID]

well well we have an old fashioned C bet.


will the new york giants show up and beat the spread and save the system, or will they throw in the towel and quit.

i will back the giants and the system. a bunch of grown men cant let a team embarass them on prime time after starting 0-5.

[on3]

i actually like the giants tonight as well. cover 2 defense against a good QB (yes, i still consider Eli a good QB), always leaves opportunities for the offense. Hakeem Nicks and Cruz should play well tonight finding holes. lack of a run game will hurt with David Wilson out. im also going to be playing the over.

[J.M. Disciple]

on3,

Someone tested "banks" I believe his name is, but thursday night 1st half under is an automatic play. I believe its 3-1 or 4-1 this season so far. So if your going to take the over, I would wait for a 2nd half play and get a better line. I could be way off, but I think under is way to go here.

[J.M. Disciple]

NFL CHI/NYG OVER 9.5 3RD QUARTER easy money? (-130) my book.

CHI is 3-2 this year with over 9.5 in the 3rd against better defenses. NYG are 4-1 with over 9.5 in the 3rd, so combined 70%.

[ken23lau]

Halftime play over 24

[J.M. Disciple]

Ya easily went over. bet that based on "bankers" auto play. its still up on the season. Need chi just to win ml and i cash my 9:1 parlay.

[on3]

good win yesterday. time to hit that other (C) bet this weekend.

[analyzer]

Got that right on3 - need Jags to cash.

[J.M. Disciple]

Waiting anxiously for half time!

[ken23lau]

jacksonville halfitme play

[bisturis]

Is Jacksonville a halftime play?

[bisturis]

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