2013 NFL System - JM and Modified

[ken23lau]

SF/ARI over halftime play

[on3]

system record: 6-0
mod system record: 0-0
units: +6 (3 series pending)
*the rules say play favorites on the ML. i will be posting the spreads and ML for favorites


week 7 plays (lost 3 SU and 3 ATS/lost 2 SU and 2 ATS (MOD)):

(C) Houston +7 (-130) (MOD)
(B) Houston +7 (-130)
(B) Chicago -1.5 (MOD)
(A) Atlanta -9
(A) Tampa Bay +9

week 8 potential plays (lost 2 SU and 2 ATS/lost 1 SU and 1 ATS (MOD)):

miami (MOD)

week 9 potential plays (lost 1 SU and 1 ATS):

miami
san diego
baltimore
minnesota
ny jets
oakland
arizona
washington

note: we have an (A) vs (A) game this coming week. if you are playing the ML on the favorites, then play them as you normally would. if you are playing on the spread, then you can follow what i am doing which is not playing the game and continuing the loser on the (B) bet for 2 units.

[on3]

halftime went 4-5 last week, season: 24-19-2

[4TH AND STUPID]

i pulled the trigger on the jiggy jaguars and giants c bets, and was looking forward to houston until i see that they are thinking of starting tj yates. i saw yates come in during the rams game, the guy is just God awful. there is now way they are beating even a 20 point spread with yates. id suggest holding off on that unless schaub or somebody other than yates is starting.

[on3]

i pulled the trigger on the jiggy jaguars and giants c bets, and was looking forward to houston until i see that they are thinking of starting tj yates. i saw yates come in during the rams game, the guy is just God awful. there is now way they are beating even a 20 point spread with yates. id suggest holding off on that unless schaub or somebody other than yates is starting.

interesting you think that because the line has moved from its +7 line earlier in the week to +5.5/+6.

[4TH AND STUPID]

interesting you think that because the line has moved from its +7 line earlier in the week to +5.5/+6.

no way it wouldve moved the wrong way with tj yates starting. vegas knew that there was going to be yet another qb switch. i guess its time to open up the game tape of contestant #3 and see if he has the qb ability to move this offense

[chilidog]

looks like the feds seized JM's sportsbettingchamp site. i wonder what the charges are...

[hagball52]

looks like the feds seized JM's sportsbettingchamp site. i wonder what the charges are...

Chili, where can I find that link?

[BuckeyeKaptn]

Chili, where can I find that link?

http://www.sportsbettingchamp.com/

He's right. F ing hilarious!

[on3]

here we go:

DAL/PHI -- UNDER 24.5
TB/ATL -- OVER 21
CIN/DET -- NO PLAY
BUF/MIA -- OVER 23
NE/NYJ -- OVER 21
CHI/WAS -- OVER 21.5
STL/CAR -- NO PLAY
JAX/SD -- NO PLAY

[Stanley77]

http://www.sportsbettingchamp.com/

He's right. F ing hilarious!

These blogs say that he got arrested:

http://foottylstat.blogspot.com

http://fastcashbookies.blogspot.com

http://fixedmatchscamlist.blogspot.com

[Stanley77]

looks like the feds seized JM's sportsbettingchamp site. i wonder what the charges are...

Also, his other sports betting websites, www.sportspicksbuffet.com and www.thechampselections.com, got seized as well.

[on3]

3-2 in the AM for the halftime system

[ken23lau]

Sf +0.5 2h

[chilidog]

These blogs say that he got arrested:

http://foottylstat.blogspot.com

http://fastcashbookies.blogspot.com

http://fixedmatchscamlist.blogspot.com

yah but those blogs don't give any details; for all i know they could just be assuming that he's been arrested. I do know that the marketing has been going on pretty strong this weekend via email, so somebody is still running the show.

[cambertos]

haha thats so awesome, Funny thing is; the douche has started sending me this "sportsbuffet NFL picks' accidentally. Junk Filter ON

[Jaymac]

here we go:

DAL/PHI -- UNDER 24.5
TB/ATL -- OVER 21
CIN/DET -- NO PLAY
BUF/MIA -- OVER 23
NE/NYJ -- OVER 21
CHI/WAS -- OVER 21.5
STL/CAR -- NO PLAY
JAX/SD -- NO PLAY

Don't see how NE over is a play?
Game total 43. Halftime combined score is 31. Halftime total is 21. According to game line it should b 12. 21-12 = 9. How is this a play?

[Juve08]

Srry guys, I know other people have asked about this and I'm going to ask again to make sure I'm getting this system. I'm a noob, btw...

So Den vs Ind
1H Score: 14-26 Den down by 12.

2H: o/u is at 28.5

Full game is at 56.

So full game 56 - 40 1H = 16
And 2H 28.5 - 16 = 12.5

So does this mean this is a play? If so, do u play the over or under? And why?

I've been trying to go read past posts but it's still not sticking.

[alexknyc]

Srry guys, I know other people have asked about this and I'm going to ask again to make sure I'm getting this system. I'm a noob, btw...

So Den vs Ind
1H Score: 14-26 Den down by 12.

2H: o/u is at 28.5

Full game is at 56.

So full game 56 - 40 1H = 16
And 2H 28.5 - 16 = 12.5

So does this mean this is a play? If so, do u play the over or under? And why?

I've been trying to go read past posts but it's still not sticking.

I don't really get it either so, you know what I do?

I don't bet it.

[on3]

Srry guys, I know other people have asked about this and I'm going to ask again to make sure I'm getting this system. I'm a noob, btw...

So Den vs Ind
1H Score: 14-26 Den down by 12.

2H: o/u is at 28.5

Full game is at 56.

So full game 56 - 40 1H = 16
And 2H 28.5 - 16 = 12.5

So does this mean this is a play? If so, do u play the over or under? And why?

I've been trying to go read past posts but it's still not sticking.

The system is predicated on that 1h trends will continue to the 2h. If the game is strongly headed for the over the majority thought is "oh, the teams will slow down in the 2h" but the system says that's not the case 60% of the time. Same goes for a favorite with a big lead ("the team wont run up the score") or a dog well ahead of the spread ("the 'better' team will pick it up in the 2h").

The 2h plays yesterday in the night game were OVER 28.5 (12.5 point middle) and IND +7.5 (10.5 point middle).

[on3]

Don't see how NE over is a play?
Game total 43. Halftime combined score is 31. Halftime total is 21. According to game line it should b 12. 21-12 = 9. How is this a play?

This was a mistake by me, but thankfully not a costly one. The 2h was not a play on the over. So AM games were 2-2, afternoon games were 0-1, night game was 2-0. Weekly total 4-3, YTD 28-22-2, or 56% winners. Some may see 56% and not think much of it, but 56% with absolutely ZERO handicapping is remarkable.

[on3]

*note for this past week, the post had ATL -9, line closed -6. i wont be counting ATL as a win (even though for most of the followers it was) and i wont be continuing the chase on tampa (because some followers had it as a win).


system record: 7-0
mod system record: 1-0
units: +8 (3 series pending)
*the rules say play favorites on the ML. i will be posting the spreads and ML for favorites


week 8 plays (lost 3 SU and 3 ATS/lost 2 SU and 2 ATS (MOD)):

(A) Miami (MOD)

week 9 potential plays (lost 2 SU and 2 ATS/lost 1 SU and 1 ATS (MOD)):

(C) Chicago (MOD)
miami
baltimore
arizona

week 10 potential plays (lost 1 SU and 1 ATS):

minnesota
oakland
philly
new england
st louis
detroit
jax
tennessee
cleveland
denver

[Juve08]

The 2h plays yesterday in the night game were OVER 28.5 (12.5 point middle) and IND +7.5 (10.5 point middle).

Can u show the calculation of IND +7.5 2H play.

And does this system apply to NCAA Football as well?

Thank you.

[on3]

Can u show the calculation of IND +7.5 2H play.

And does this system apply to NCAA Football as well?

Thank you.

IND up by 12, 2h dog of 7.5, full game +6, so...

-12+7.5 = -4.5 adjusted spread, full game +6; difference of 10.5


the numbers dont support a high enough win percentage in college. too many games, too much discrepancy in talent, and in my opinion amateur players are more volatile.

[Juve08]

IND up by 12, 2h dog of 7.5, full game +6, so...

-12+7.5 = -4.5 adjusted spread, full game +6; difference of 10.5


the numbers dont support a high enough win percentage in college. too many games, too much discrepancy in talent, and in my opinion amateur players are more volatile.

Thanks for clarifying it on3! Much appreciated!

Now, why doesn't it work for Den 2H?
Also -4.5 adj spread subtracted or added to full game +6?

What is the formula?

[on3]

Thanks for clarifying it on3! Much appreciated!

Now, why doesn't it work for Den 2H?
Also -4.5 adj spread subtracted or added to full game +6?

What is the formula?

the logic behind the system is: the dog will continue to cover, the favorite will continue to dominate, the over will continue to go over, the under will continue to go under. it wouldnt work for denver because they were the favorite.

[cleonhr]

Tampa should be play in week 8

[Jaymac]

buckeye

I just did another test, a filter, if you wish, for last year. Any point differential where the HOME team is a play, has positive units...that's a point differential from 2 to 21 ("1" was 58/55 -2.5 units)...ALL have positive units. 10pt dif was 20/12...+6.8u. 13pt dif was 16/7...+8.3u.
This was for only last year, but this new info makes me want to check the previous years. If I can get a play that hits at a 70% (69.6%) rate (the 13 pt spread), I might put a little more on it.

Did you find anything else on this?

[ken23lau]

Is 56% actually all that profitable considering the juice?

[chilidog]

Is 56% actually all that profitable considering the juice?

With buying points, not at all.

[on3]

With buying points, not at all.

who's buying points in the halftime system? 28 wins = +28 units, 22 losses = -24.2 units. system YTD = +3.8 units. yes, 56% is profitable.

[on3]

Is 56% actually all that profitable considering the juice?

yes, at -110 the mendoza line is ~53%. 90% of halftime lines are at -110 with a few -115 and -120 sprinkled in. 56% is profitable.

[BuckeyeKaptn]

Did you find anything else on this?

No, I decided to start doing my backtests for MLB so I can go full bore next April, I will do my backtest for NFL, NHL, and NBA after I'm done. I don't have much time so I do what I can, when I can.

[BuckeyeKaptn]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ainr1eDtdk5ZdDQ5WElWcnUxdkpMLUdBM28ycUhLelE#gid=1

here is the spreadsheet I made for the 2nd half plays. You can download it into an excel file, so you don't have to wait for ON3...he's busy enough with the system.

[on3]

Dal/det -- no play (total has a 9.5 middle)
cle/kc -- OVER 20
mia/ne -- MIA +7
buf/no -- no play
nyg/phi -- NYG +3, UNDER 23.5
sf/jax -- SF -6.5