2013 NFL System - JM and Modified

[on3]

thats it for the AM games. 3 plays. i wont be around for the 1pm games. so hopefully you got the hang of it. will be back later tonight for an update.

[on3]

Thanks for the middle plays On3. Starting to get the hang of it. I know simple formula, but you get it done fast!

Only the games with large variances will be eligible. So games where one team is blowing out another (KC /Jax), or when games are far under or over. The close games with 20-30 points being scored wont be eligible, so those are easy to calc.

[playr101]

Here is a spreadsheet for Halftime middle bets from last year...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AuBJS8drsZrgdDZGM0RpZjJpUzlwNl9yV0pNRHVFRXc&usp=sharing

-playr101

[on3]

No play in the Arizona game

[J.M. Disciple]

There was a nba betting system based on blow outs and back door.covers. If a team loses first three quarters and are down 10 or more bet them ats 4th quarter. Wonder if that works nfl....

[J.M. Disciple]

Here is a spreadsheet for Halftime middle bets from last year...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AuBJS8drsZrgdDZGM0RpZjJpUzlwNl9yV0pNRHVFRXc&usp=sharing

-playr101

I am trying to type in data to this spread sheet, but it will not let me change any info. I gotta look at it again, but I do not see last years stuff...

[playr101]

Sorry.. was not editable... I fixed it...

Just fill in the white cells

There is nothing for last year. I used this spreadsheet last year to find the middles. Last year it went 149/128/8. That is both NCAAFB and NFL. From 9/22 to 11/3. Im sure it was not every possible play though. FYI

-playr101

[on3]

3-0 this wknd, with 1-0 with Denver winning. Will post halftime plays tonight. Anyone have any bad beats this weekend? Mine was GB +5 that blew up a couple really big parlays.

[hagball52]

3-0 this wknd, with 1-0 with Denver winning. Will post halftime plays tonight. Anyone have any bad beats this weekend? Mine was GB +5 that blew up a couple really big parlays.

I had Carolina +3.5. They were moving toward a score which would have given them the win or cover and they fumbled at the 8 yard line. Seattle recovered and basically ran out the clock.

[J.M. Disciple]

Sorry.. was not editable... I fixed it...

Just fill in the white cells

There is nothing for last year. I used this spreadsheet last year to find the middles. Last year it went 149/128/8. That is both NCAAFB and NFL. From 9/22 to 11/3. Im sure it was not every possible play though. FYI

-playr101

Based on these stats its 54% and I noticed I get -115 juice often, so not really profitable to flat bet these middles. I think we need to consider some type of betting system to go a long with them. Say over 100 games.

54 wins x $100 = $5400
46 losses x $115 = $5290

Very small profit and not really worth the time doing these unless their is a betting strategy to go a long with it. I am sure you can slowly increase your bets if you lose a couple and keep bets same size (1u) when you are on a winning streak.

[J.M. Disciple]

3-0 this wknd, with 1-0 with Denver winning. Will post halftime plays tonight. Anyone have any bad beats this weekend? Mine was GB +5 that blew up a couple really big parlays.

Greenbay was a bad beat based on the Refs I suppose, but also that same TD could of been avoided had they decline the penalty and made it 4th and 1 instead of 3rd and 6 again. Followed by Ref's mistake making it 3rd and 6 for the 3RD TIME! Its like they got 7 downs instead of 4 going for that TD. I do not think Greenbay played well at all 2nd half. Boldin tore them up even when double covered.

I made a small profit 2u over the weekend. Going to be labbying time slots for 1h and 2h unders. Similar to how they ran 1st inning score or no score in the past. I am taking the highest total for each time slot and labbying 1h / 2h. Even if it wins 1st half im going to double dip and hit 2nd half as well. So far not very good, but bets are small and it will recover. I believe Im 3-2.... Not confirmed though.

I'll post my leans today if you want action. Usually do pretty well. Yesterday had KC as my top play. Other plays didn't like them too much.

[J.M. Disciple]

was/phi Under
HOU ATS
HOU/SD Over*

I like the Over in the game, but I am trying to stick to my systems with the under so will be labbying that and hope my lean loses I guess. I was looking up stats last night and it shows 49.6% for over and 50.4% for the Under which is why I am playing unders and not overs. Just hope public drives most of the lines up and also you can get additional 1pt each half usually which should increase the win rate a little bit, but also a little bit more juice which is fine.

[J.M. Disciple]

If you look at the quarters, the 2nd game of HOU and SD has some good overs available. 1st and 3rd quarter for my book are both o7.5 (-125) seems like an easy victory there. I will most likely take both of those later on once Eagle / Was game is over.

[DustyDiamond]

Checking in

[on3]

Based on these stats its 54% and I noticed I get -115 juice often, so not really profitable to flat bet these middles. I think we need to consider some type of betting system to go a long with them. Say over 100 games.

54 wins x $100 = $5400
46 losses x $115 = $5290

Very small profit and not really worth the time doing these unless their is a betting strategy to go a long with it. I am sure you can slowly increase your bets if you lose a couple and keep bets same size (1u) when you are on a winning streak.

Thats with NFL/NCAAF. I know NFL hits above 58%. I run a single labby line 25-25-25-25 and add to it when I clear a line over a weekend. So I cleared my first line +50, and now my line is 30-30-30-30.

[DustyDiamond]

on3 what are the "AA" plays? I went back into last years thread to look it up to avoid having to ask, but I'm still confused. Are you still doing the round robin plays?

One more question as well on3. In last years thread on the first page you give the ROI for the round robin system. What does "Through 3 and 7" mean on your chart?

Thanks for the help

[Want2Win]

3-0 this wknd, with 1-0 with Denver winning. Will post halftime plays tonight. Anyone have any bad beats this weekend? Mine was GB +5 that blew up a couple really big parlays.

Exactly, That Green Bay at +5 blew a huge day for me!

[J.M. Disciple]

Thats with NFL/NCAAF. I know NFL hits above 58%. I run a single labby line 25-25-25-25 and add to it when I clear a line over a weekend. So I cleared my first line +50, and now my line is 30-30-30-30.

Why do you add to it instead of just starting a fresh line? On a bad run your line could get very heavy! Also there were 3 plays, so did you split each one to win $33.33 each or start with six #s to win $50 each?

[cmdyrds]

checking in

[J.M. Disciple]

So looks like PHi will be a 2h play... o/u doesn't qualify.

I might start a fresh labby line with you on3 and see how you do this cause its super hard to decide what to bet on some of these NFL games. But 58% with low juice will crush the labby line. Easy money if I just show patience.

[J.M. Disciple]

so eagles +.5 2nd half would be the middle play tonight.

Eagles -19 currently +.5 = -18.5 and subtract whole game spread making it -14.5 correct? I know they are the play but not sure if my math is correct.

[ken23lau]

I think you add the game spread because they're underdogs. So it should be -22.5

[J.M. Disciple]

I think you add the game spread because they're underdogs. So it should be -22.5

Thats what I thought originally, but on3 did some math in another example where it went other way... maybe im just confused.

I think you always subtract it other wise any time underdog is up like 7pts it is basically a play....

[on3]

got really busy at work and forgot to post. halftime line +.5, up 19, adj game line 18.5 PHI, beginning line +4, difference of 22.5.

[J.M. Disciple]

so underdog always add and favorite always subtract?


So any time an underdog as a 7pt lead at half and is a +3 underdog or more they are basically a play?

[on3]

so underdog always add and favorite always subtract?


So any time an underdog as a 7pt lead at half and is a +3 underdog or more they are basically a play?

if the line is a PK, yes.

[J.M. Disciple]

On3 who you got in 2nd game? I did a parlay with Phi +3 and HOU -3 both 1st half so now im debating hedging it... probably let it ride since I lost the under 1st half of PHI game though. Thinking of putting a little more on HOU...

The o7.5 1st and 3rd quarter bets look super sweet! but I do not want to be too much of a degen.

What you all betting?

[J.M. Disciple]

Another play coming up!! SD 2hd half

[J.M. Disciple]

I am not understanding still. The data sheet says no play.

But we have a 5pt underdog who is winning by 14pts! And they are a 7pt underdog 2nd half.
Why is this a no play on the spread sheet?

-14 at half +7 2nd half so adjusted line is -7, +5 = 12 right?

[on3]

SD was a 2nd half play at +7. And yes JM, differential is 12.

[J.M. Disciple]

SD was a 2nd half play at +7. And yes JM, differential is 12.

Have you tried the spread sheet? In the formula it has it set at >=13, but i changed that to 10 and it still says no play. I think spread sheet is off or .... who knows.

[J.M. Disciple]

Upcoming play. Did a 7pt teaser Jets +20 and O37 for the game. Looks like easy cash the way the NFL is playing all these close games. Just hope NE and NYJ can put up 37 lol. 3u to win 2.5u

[on3]

so far im on ATL -7, also eyeballing PHI -7.5 at home against SD. early game, west coast visiting east so the 1H PHI will be a play most definitely.

[J.M. Disciple]

I know this is NFL thread, but look at PHO 1st half -2.5 WNBA today. Some action before Thursday... I like all three road teams, but this is the strongest by far.

[J.M. Disciple]

Any thoughts on tonights NCAAF?