Advanced System Strategies NFL/CFB

**Degenregen** · 10-17-12, 12:23 PM

Originally posted by ShivaBowl

Filters: When A/I picks a dog and it’s a pass, at >-15
Play under, the total.

Central Florida @ Memphis

Memphis If > 18
Line Central Florida -23.5

DIFF is Central Florida 12.8
Take the DIFF of 12.8 and add the 5 point over lay = 18
Pick Memphis If > +18

Since the line is Memphis +23.5, AI picks the dog but passes because the line is < 15, so we take the under?
________________________________________ ______________________________

Although sometimes the lines are wacko: Purdue @ Ohio State, Sportrends has the line at -53? Not sure if I'm interpreting the number on the line column correctly?

**bigelv** · 10-17-12, 12:47 PM

K shiva but how do we get the AI play?

**ShivaBowl** · 10-17-12, 04:27 PM

Originally posted by Degenregen

Central Florida @ Memphis

Memphis If > 18
Line Central Florida -23.5

DIFF is Central Florida 12.8
Take the DIFF of 12.8 and add the 5 point over lay = 18
Pick Memphis If > +18

Since the line is Memphis +23.5, AI picks the dog but passes because the line is < 15, so we take the under?
________________________________________ ______________________________

Although sometimes the lines are wacko: Purdue @ Ohio State, Sportrends has the line at -53? Not sure if I'm interpreting the number on the line column correctly?

Sportrends will update the lines on Saturday. The lines on the AI sheet don't matter right now, look them up.

Nice work you have it

Also total points need to be under what the total is on the game and
Let's try to keep it in the -15 to -20 point range when get to -30 you have a good chance of it just a total blow out. You know what I mean.

Now try Fresno State and Wyoming that one really jumps off the page.
It's right at -15 so monitor the lines and see what happens.
Thanks

**phatbuddha** · 10-17-12, 06:27 PM

Not playing anything today?

**Degenregen** · 10-17-12, 07:39 PM

My pleasure to help out!

Wyoming @ Fresno State

Wyoming if > 15
Line Fresno State -15

DIFF is Wyoming 10
Take the DIFF of 10 + 5 = 15
Pick Wyoming if > 15

Since this one is borderline, if it stays at 15, do we generally play this one?

Some that look likely to play:

____________________________

Minnesota @ Wisconsin

Minnesota if > 4.1
Line Wisconsin -18.5

Take the DIFF of 4.1 + 5 = 9.1
Pick Minnesota if > 9.1

____________________________

Purdue @ Ohio State

Purdue if > 11.7
Line Ohio State -18.5

11.7 + 5 = 16.7
Pick Purdue if > 16.7
________________________________________ ___________________________

Tulane @ Texas El Paso

Tulane if > 9.6
Line Texas El Paso -15

Take the DIFF of 9.6 + 5 = 14.6
Pick Wyoming if > 14.6

____________________________

Will need to double check these before betting.
Remember we are looking to take the under on the totals if the underdog qualifies.
So far it looks like these are the ones to keep track of?

Middle Tennessee @ Mississippi State
Middle Tennessee If > + 13
Current Total @ 56

New Mexico State @ Utah State
New Mexico State If > +17.5
Current Total @ 56.5

Central Florida @ Memphis
Memphis If > 18
Current Total @ 50

Wyoming @ Fresno State
Wyoming if > 15
Current Total @ 63.5

Minnesota @ Wisconsin
Minnesota if > 4.1
Current Total @ 45

Purdue @ Ohio State
Purdue if > 11.7
Current Total @ 62.5

Tulane @ Texas El Paso
Tulane if > 9.6
Current Total @ 50

**bigelv** · 10-17-12, 08:18 PM

Originally posted by Degenregen

My pleasure to help out!

Wyoming @ Fresno State

Wyoming if > 15
Line Fresno State -15

DIFF is Wyoming 10
Take the DIFF of 10 + 5 = 15
Pick Wyoming if > 15

Since this one is borderline, if it stays at 15, do we generally play this one?

Some that look likely to play:

____________________________

Minnesota @ Wisconsin

Minnesota if > 4.1
Line Wisconsin -18.5

Take the DIFF of 4.1 + 5 = 9.1
Pick Minnesota if > 9.1

____________________________

Purdue @ Ohio State

Purdue if > 11.7
Line Ohio State -18.5

11.7 + 5 = 16.7
Pick Purdue if > 16.7
________________________________________ ___________________________

Tulane @ Texas El Paso

Tulane if > 9.6
Line Texas El Paso -15

Take the DIFF of 9.6 + 5 = 14.6
Pick Wyoming if > 14.6

____________________________

Will need to double check these before betting.
Remember we are looking to take the under on the totals if the underdog qualifies.
So far it looks like these are the ones to keep track of?

Middle Tennessee @ Mississippi State
Middle Tennessee If > + 13
Current Total @ 56

New Mexico State @ Utah State
New Mexico State If > +17.5
Current Total @ 56.5

Central Florida @ Memphis
Memphis If > 18
Current Total @ 50

Wyoming @ Fresno State
Wyoming if > 15
Current Total @ 63.5

Minnesota @ Wisconsin
Minnesota if > 4.1
Current Total @ 45

Purdue @ Ohio State
Purdue if > 11.7
Current Total @ 62.5

Tulane @ Texas El Paso
Tulane if > 9.6
Current Total @ 50

How do I get the AI play?

**Degenregen** · 10-17-12, 10:05 PM

The DIFF is taken from sportrends, and as all the systems we are using, they are available to all for free. Please read opening posts for more info.

**sportsfan834** · 10-17-12, 11:21 PM

cool!

**sportsfan834** · 10-17-12, 11:28 PM

thanks bro!

**sportsfan834** · 10-17-12, 11:34 PM

thanks again!

**Degenregen** · 10-18-12, 12:30 AM

No problem! Also for the line portion of determining the plays, I think it's much easier to use the "live odds" drop down menu that SBR provides at the top of this page. Use the ctrl + f function to find universities faster too! Any credit for teaching the under filter should go to Shiva, he's the real Pro!

**wizcodlifa** · 10-18-12, 02:13 AM

if i am reading this correctly tomorrows play would be oregon -8 right?
oregon (121.5)
Arizona st (106) + 3 = (109)
difference equals 12.5

sorry if i shouldnt be posting this in advance. just wanna no if i am doing this correctly

**wizcodlifa** · 10-18-12, 02:14 AM

Also i have houston as a big play. Idk if im doing this correctly. If someone could please explain these more into detail. It would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks

**wizcodlifa** · 10-18-12, 02:19 AM

Nvm i looked at the sportrends team stats and they say arizona st is the play. I just dont understand this. Wish someone was hear to help

**Degenregen** · 10-18-12, 02:57 AM

Well there are three different systems. Power Rating (PR), Team Matchup Analysis, AKA FL&A (Fundamental & Line analysis), and Artificial Intelligence (AI). They are seperate systems, you can read what they are based on, on the first page of this thread by Shiva. Since they are not the same systems, they may not always agree with eachother.

Originally posted by wizcodlifa

if i am reading this correctly tomorrows play would be oregon -8 right?
oregon (121.5)
Arizona st (106) + 3 = (109)
difference equals 12.5

sorry if i shouldnt be posting this in advance. just wanna no if i am doing this correctly

Looks like you are looking to do PR here. I'll start with looking at the line.

From SBR live odds: It's Oregon @ Arizona state with the line being Oregon - 8.

Ok, now let's grab the away PR for Oregon, it's 125.5

Now let's get the home PR for Arizona St, it's 104.5. Add +3 for home team advantage, 104.5 + 3 = 107.5

125.5 - 107.5 = 18 pt advantage for Oregon. So yes, with the line at -8, the PR system is saying that there's value in an Oregon bet as it should be an 18 point favorite. Unforunately, it looks like the FL&A and AI have picked Arizona. You may want to look at past results for the systems in this thread to determine which system you want to go with, if any. Thanks to ShivaBowl and Tommygun for compiling those results so we can analyze them.

Also I am new to this as well, so please pardon any mistakes.

If you have any trouble understanding, I would just keep looking at it and studying it, it should become clearer eventually.

**wizcodlifa** · 10-18-12, 05:22 AM

thank you. now i need to get these other systems down

**bigelv** · 10-18-12, 07:12 AM

Thank you Degenregen for braking it down and making it clearer. Hopefully I can now master this and help Shivabowl and Tommygun out.

**ShivaBowl** · 10-18-12, 08:07 AM

Originally posted by bigelv

Thank you Degenregen for braking it down and making it clearer. Hopefully I can now master this and help Shivabowl and Tommygun out.

Did you get the A/I plays at ST?
Click on Team Stats then Stats on Demand

**ShivaBowl** · 10-18-12, 08:23 AM

Originally posted by Degenregen

My pleasure to help out!

Wyoming @ Fresno State

Wyoming if > 15
Line Fresno State -15

DIFF is Wyoming 10
Take the DIFF of 10 + 5 = 15
Pick Wyoming if > 15

Since this one is borderline, if it stays at 15, do we generally play this one?

Some that look likely to play:

____________________________

Minnesota @ Wisconsin

Minnesota if > 4.1
Line Wisconsin -18.5

Take the DIFF of 4.1 + 5 = 9.1
Pick Minnesota if > 9.1

____________________________

Purdue @ Ohio State

Purdue if > 11.7
Line Ohio State -18.5

11.7 + 5 = 16.7
Pick Purdue if > 16.7
________________________________________ ___________________________

Tulane @ Texas El Paso

Tulane if > 9.6
Line Texas El Paso -15

Take the DIFF of 9.6 + 5 = 14.6
Pick Wyoming if > 14.6

____________________________

Will need to double check these before betting.
Remember we are looking to take the under on the totals if the underdog qualifies.
So far it looks like these are the ones to keep track of?

Middle Tennessee @ Mississippi State
Middle Tennessee If > + 13
Current Total @ 56

New Mexico State @ Utah State
New Mexico State If > +17.5
Current Total @ 56.5

Central Florida @ Memphis
Memphis If > 18
Current Total @ 50

Wyoming @ Fresno State
Wyoming if > 15
Current Total @ 63.5

Minnesota @ Wisconsin
Minnesota if > 4.1
Current Total @ 45

Purdue @ Ohio State
Purdue if > 11.7
Current Total @ 62.5

Tulane @ Texas El Paso
Tulane if > 9.6
Current Total @ 50

I have the same plays, as you have!

What we are looking for from AI;
are underdogs that can't score points, but can play a little D.
After you do the system for about 1 to two years,
you will see them and know exactly what I am talking about.
They will start to jump out at you and you will understand why the line on the total is what it is.

-15 isn't set in stone you can be a little flexible track the system.

Always buy a > ½ point on a under play.
All unders must be played with a ½ point,
we are not looking to push on a play, pay up to -130.

Thanks Degenregen

**bigelv** · 10-18-12, 08:23 AM

Originally posted by ShivaBowl

Did you get the A/I plays at ST?
Click on Team Stats then Stats on Demand

Yes I did now I'm trying to get this as good as you guys do. I think the more of us that know these systems the better in case you r busy to post it up

**ShivaBowl** · 10-18-12, 08:32 AM

Short: UL Lafayette

A/I plays went 1-0 Tuesday +$100.00
North Texas +4.5 WIN

Today’s A/I Plays
1 Unit
Short: Arizona State
Oct 18 9:00 PM ET
Long: Oregon Ducks –8 –105

Working on something new…tracking it.
1 Unit
Oregon v Arizona State
Game Total UNDER 69½ -130

**ShivaBowl** · 10-18-12, 08:42 AM

Pro Football Artificial Intelligence
Team Projected Points for 10/21/2012 (Week 7)
2.5 Unit

Warning; the play on this game, is trending >

Green Bay Packers v St Louis Rams
Game Total OVER 45 -110

**Tommygunn** · 10-18-12, 10:10 AM

**PR** 18/10/12

SF -8 or <

Rest of record and plays will be posted Saturday afternoon as usual.

**ShivaBowl** · 10-18-12, 10:26 AM

Originally posted by Tommygunn

**PR** 18/10/12

SF -8 or <

Rest of record and plays will be posted Saturday afternoon as usual.

Thanks TG, no plays for AI today.

**ShivaBowl** · 10-18-12, 10:40 AM

Hey Tommygunn and Degenregen if and when you have CFB plays
could you post them here?
Advanced System Strategies CFB & NFL

I just don’t want the CFB people, to miss out on what we are doing.
Thank You

**wizcodlifa** · 10-18-12, 11:35 AM

Hey shiva I'm very interested in helping you guys out. I understand the AI could you message me an explanation and example of the other 2 systems? Please

**bigelv** · 10-18-12, 12:14 PM

Hey shiva I'm confused a lil. If I remember correctly in a post a few weeks ago you said when the the AI takes a dog we take the over but now u said if the AI takes a dog we take the under. How do we determine if its a over or under play?

**jsund** · 10-18-12, 01:18 PM

Shivabowl---what do you mean when you post az. St. Short and oregon ducks long?? Ul lafayette short

**dillzs** · 10-18-12, 01:51 PM

Arizona State is the AI pick so he is shorting (selling) against it and buying (long) Oregon -8. UL-Lafayette was the AI pick and he shorted it, and went long NT ...

**ShivaBowl** · 10-18-12, 02:33 PM

Originally posted by wizcodlifa

Hey shiva I'm very interested in helping you guys out. I understand the AI could you message me an explanation and example of the other 2 systems? Please

Exactly, been tracking that filter for almost 2 years now and it's not working

**ShivaBowl** · 10-18-12, 03:23 PM

Originally posted by jsund

Shivabowl---what do you mean when you post az. St. Short and oregon ducks long?? Ul lafayette short

J babe; Welcome back to the dark side!
Where the hell have you been? Not one post from you all year, what's up with that.

**ShivaBowl** · 10-18-12, 03:30 PM

Originally posted by wizcodlifa

Hey shiva I'm very interested in helping you guys out. I understand the AI could you message me an explanation and example of the other 2 systems? Please

Maybe Tommygunn can help you and I with FL&A
He's the brains behind his operation because I can't figure it out for the life of me.
Send him a PM maybe he can help you and then you can help me thanks

**wizcodlifa** · 10-18-12, 03:39 PM

Will do

**Degenregen** · 10-18-12, 06:19 PM

Originally posted by ShivaBowl

I have the same plays, as you have!

What we are looking for from AI;
are underdogs that can't score points, but can play a little D.
After you do the system for about 1 to two years,
you will see them and know exactly what I am talking about.
They will start to jump out at you and you will understand why the line on the total is what it is.

-15 isn't set in stone you can be a little flexible track the system.

Always buy a > ½ point on a under play.
All unders must be played with a ½ point,
we are not looking to push on a play, pay up to -130.

Thanks Degenregen

Makes sense to me. I've already put something on all of the unders to make sure I'll monitor them with some enthusiasm

.

I'm also on board the short tonight, hope the AI doesn't mind us fading it and biting us in the ass! BOL!

Thanks Shiva!

**ShivaBowl** · 10-18-12, 06:58 PM

Originally posted by Tommygunn

**PR** 18/10/12

SF -8 or <

Rest of record and plays will be posted Saturday afternoon as usual.

Tommygunn , It's looking like we have a play tonight hard eight or under correct ? thanks