Advanced System Strategies NFL/CFB

**Tommygunn** · 10-18-12, 07:31 PM

Originally posted by ShivaBowl

Tommygunn , It's looking like we have a play tonight hard eight or under correct ? thanks

Correct Shiva. What about Oregon at -8.5?

**ShivaBowl** · 10-19-12, 12:52 AM

I have never asked this question, but I'm just curious how many of you guys actually went 2-0 with me last night ?
thanks

**wakeforestfan** · 10-19-12, 01:02 AM

Originally posted by ShivaBowl

I have never asked this question, but I'm just curious how many of you guys actually went 2-0 with me last night ?
thanks

been lurking for a while and finally made an account.
sound a lil touty lol but i did go 2-0 tailin , keep it up !

**gh0zt** · 10-19-12, 01:16 AM

2-0 here. I had a lean on Oregon, but your plays pushed me to lock it in along with the under. Thanks!

**Degenregen** · 10-19-12, 01:17 AM

That was one heck of a low scoring second half, but what counts is that it paid! 2-0, thanks for the picks!

**ShivaBowl** · 10-19-12, 01:29 AM

Oh come on man that game was never in doubt, Holy Christ

Well I'm glad to see that we are on the same page and we are making money, because we only have a small window of opportunity and closing fast. We are 3-0 going into this weekend and with
any luck we can keep the momentum going.
Okay guys just a heads up its been a long week and I'm taking Friday off .
I'll be in the war room First thing Saturday morning 7 AM
well rested and ready to go.
Best of luck take care

**Degenregen** · 10-19-12, 02:01 AM

I thought about taking a 2nd half over, but I had faith

Hope you have a good one! See you Saturday morning, General!

Let's keep it rolling

**bigelv** · 10-19-12, 06:57 AM

I went 2-0 yesterday cause I took San Fran when it was still at 7 so it pushed

**bigelv** · 10-19-12, 06:59 AM

Hey shiva correct me if I'm wrong. So we take the under when AI take the dog and its -15 or greater but when it picks the dog and its less than -15 we take the over?

**chinoloco** · 10-19-12, 08:54 AM

Shiva, tailing you all the way my friend. Thank you.

**jsund** · 10-19-12, 10:26 AM

Originally posted by ShivaBowl

J babe; Welcome back to the dark side!
Where the hell have you been? Not one post from you all year, what's up with that.

shivabowl---sister had serious health issues for very long time---so it took up alot of my free time, she is doing alot better now, sometimes you have to do what needs to be done. Hopefully we all will make some money this season. It is great to see you still posting

**franklee168** · 10-19-12, 10:37 AM

Shiva....faithful follower here. Thanks!

**lambert58** · 10-19-12, 01:14 PM

Originally posted by ShivaBowl

I have never asked this question, but I'm just curious how many of you guys actually went 2-0 with me last night ?
thanks

I did

I was a little worried about the Under though. Ecspecially when 50 points were scored in the first half.

**Degenregen** · 10-19-12, 02:00 PM

Update on the AI dog under plays:

New Mexico State @ Utah State is no good, the line was too high in the first place. So NP (No play). The DIFF is quite even though so we'll monitor this. Line is @ 31.

Central Florida is a little high as well. -22 with a total of 50 maybe a little dangerous but we'll monitor this. I already bet on this.

This looks like a NP though.
________________________________________ ____________

These games look like they will be the plays tomorrow, will do another update before game time.
(Total numbers are raw. I.E. no half point incorporated. Always buy half a point.)

Middle Tennessee looks like it will be a play. Line @ 19. Total @ 56.

Wyoming @ Fresno State looking like it will be a play. Line @ 16.5. Total @ 62.5, trendling <. Use your own judgement on the lines.

Minnesota @ Wisconsin is looking to be a play. Line @ 17. Total @ 45.5, trending >.

Purdue @ Ohio looking like a play. Line @ 18.5 Total @ 62.

Tulane @ El Paso: Line @ 16.5. Total @ 52, trending >.

________________________________________ _

Going to add some games to track. Most of these don't look like they will be plays. This is just to help me track.

Brigham Young @ Notre Dame
Line is @ 13.5, AI qualifies @ > 10. Ultimately, it is a play if 15-20. Total @ 40.5.

New Mexico @ Air Force, AI underdog qualifies @ 11.5. Line is @ 11, total @ 57. But under should be played only if line is at 15-20.

**LionsFTW** · 10-19-12, 03:09 PM

Originally posted by ShivaBowl

Short: UL Lafayette

A/I plays went 1-0 Tuesday +$100.00
North Texas +4.5 WIN

Today’s A/I Plays
1 Unit
Short: Arizona State
Oct 18 9:00 PM ET
Long: Oregon Ducks –8 –105

Working on something new…tracking it.
1 Unit
Oregon v Arizona State
Game Total UNDER 69½ -130

A/I Long might have to be added to the weekly plays

**wizcodlifa** · 10-19-12, 03:22 PM

Wait... I thought all the plays listed were unders? Is this not correct??

**BaratoForYou** · 10-20-12, 12:03 AM

Degen, shiva, and tommy.
Thank you guys so much for your work'!
Lets bang the books!

**Degenregen** · 10-20-12, 03:41 AM

All of the plays that I am posting are unders. I am hoping Shiva and Tommy can get to the other plays we are used to.

So far these are the games that fit the filter that Shiva taught us:
0.5 Unit plays. Remember to buy half a point.

Important Note: All of the lines for these games need to fit the 15-20 range 10 minutes before the game in order to qualify as plays. Purdue @ Ohio needs to be in the 17-20 range.

GAME	LINE (10/19, Game Day)	TOTAL (10/19, Game Day)
Middle Tennessee @ Mississippi ST	19, 17.5	56, 56
Wyoming @ Fresno State	16.5, 16.5	62.5, 62
Minnesota @ Wisconsin	17, 16	45.5, 45
Purdue @ Ohio	18.5, 18	62, 61.5
Tulane @ El Paso	16.5, 16.5	52, 52.5

BOL!

**wizcodlifa** · 10-20-12, 03:59 AM

Watching all these games. Got around 20 leans. Looking for a huge Saturday.! I will be attending the Iowa/penn st game. Should be fun!
BOL everyone!

**Romanov** · 10-20-12, 08:44 AM

Best of luck today Shiva!

**ShivaBowl** · 10-20-12, 08:56 AM

A/I plays went 1-0 Thursday +100.00
1 Unit
Oct 18 9:00 PM ET Oregon Ducks–8 –105 WIN

A/I Under plays went 1-0 Thursday +100.00
1 Unit
Oregon v Arizona State
Total UNDER 69½ -130 WIN

**ShivaBowl** · 10-20-12, 09:47 AM

College Football Artificial Intelligence
Team Projected Points for 10/20/2012 (Week 8)
1.5 Unit Plays
Updated
A/I Over the total plays
Never lay a 1/2-point, buy it down.
Plays based on early lines.

12:00 PM ET Virginia Tech @ Clemson 62
12:00 PM ET LSU @ Texas A&M 53
3:30 PM ET North Carolina State @ Maryland 45
7:00 PM ET Idaho @ Louisiana 72.5
7:00 PM ET Marshall @ Southern Miss 64.5
8:00 PM ET Baylor @ Texas 80

A/I Under the total plays
1 Unit
Always buy a ½ point.
Plays based on early lines.
3:30 PM ET South Carolina @ Florida 41
3:30 PM ET Indiana @ Navy 61.5
3:30 PM ET Brigham Young @ Notre Dame 40.5

A/I Plays
1/2 Unit
Never lay a 1/2-point on a favored.
Always buy a 1/2-point on a dog.
Never play the M/L on a dog, take the points.
Always play the M/L on a favored up to –150
Plays based on early lines.

12:00 PM ET LSU –3.5
3:30 PM ET Central Michigan +3
3:30 PM ET Navy -145
3:30 PM ET Florida –3.5
No Play If FLA < -3
3:30 PM ET Notre Dame –13
3:30 PM ET North Carolina State –3.5
3:30 PM ET South Florida +5.5
7:00 PM ET Southern Miss -4
8:00 PM ET Texas –8
10:00 PM ET Washington +7.5

**Romanov** · 10-20-12, 09:56 AM

Shiva, thanks for the plays, but are your overs still as strong as their normal 2.5 unit counterparts? I see you've decreased them to 1.5 units. Is that because you are adding 1 unit plays on unders? Have you backtested the under plays? JW, i know it is saturday morning and we are all busy but if you get a chance...

**ShivaBowl** · 10-20-12, 10:13 AM

Originally posted by ShivaBowl

College Football Artificial Intelligence
Team Projected Points for 10/20/2012 (Week 8)
1.5 Unit Plays
Updated
A/I Over the total plays
Never lay a 1/2-point, buy it down.
Plays based on early lines.

12:00 PM ET Virginia Tech @ Clemson 62
12:00 PM ET LSU @ Texas A&M 53
3:30 PM ET North Carolina State @ Maryland 45
7:00 PM ET Idaho @ Louisiana 72.5
7:00 PM ET Marshall @ Southern Miss 64.5
8:00 PM ET Baylor @ Texas 80

A/I Under the total plays
1 Unit
Always buy a ½ point.
Plays based on early lines.
3:30 PM ET South Carolina @ Florida 41
3:30 PM ET Indiana @ Navy 61.5
3:30 PM ET Brigham Young @ Notre Dame 40.5

A/I Plays
1/2 Unit
Never lay a 1/2-point on a favored.
Always buy a 1/2-point on a dog.
Never play the M/L on a dog, take the points.
Always play the M/L on a favored up to –150
Plays based on early lines.

12:00 PM ET LSU –3.5
3:30 PM ET Central Michigan +3
3:30 PM ET Navy -145
3:30 PM ET Florida –3.5
No Play If FLA < -3
3:30 PM ET Notre Dame –13
3:30 PM ET North Carolina State –3.5
3:30 PM ET South Florida +5.5
7:00 PM ET Southern Miss -4
8:00 PM ET Texas –8
10:00 PM ET Washington +7.5

A/I Over the total plays
2 Unit Play
Updated

7:00 PM ET Kansas State @ West Virginia 71.5

**Tommygunn** · 10-20-12, 04:08 PM

The one day I decide to start playing totals? Sorry everyone for dragging you into my cold streak.

**Tommygunn** · 10-20-12, 05:17 PM

**FL&A** (0-2), -2.18 u, YTD (1-4), -3.41 u

TB -1.5 or < NP

Phi -3.5 or < L

SD +1.5 or > NP

Arz -2.5 or < NP

Ind +3.5 or > L

**AI** (1-6) -5.31u, YTD (9-16) -7.71

Pitts L

Atl L

NE -4 or < L

Minn +1 or > NP

TB -4 or < NP

Indy +4 or > NP

Hou L

Det -4 or < W

SD -1.5 or < L

Balt L

**PR** (2-5) -3.33u, YTD (12-10) +1.39

Balt -1 or < NP

Phi -5.5 or < L

TB -5.5 or < W

Arz L

SD L

**Higher PR Getting Points**

Ind L
Stl W

**Double Digit Line PR Plays**

Atl -11.5 < L

**Degenregen** · 10-20-12, 05:17 PM

We can still finish strong, just two more touchdowns for this Maryland game.

FYI I'm tracking these games for the under as well. They seem to match the filter's requirements in principal (AI thinks the Dog is much stronger than the line indicates. Except for Alabama, be careful of that game.). They're looking to go 2-0 so far, sample size is too small ofc, but I threw a quarter unit on all of them.

QUESTIONABLE GAME	DIFF	LINE	TOTAL
New Mexico State @ Utah State	12.3	31	56.5
Central Florida @ Memphis	12.8	22	50
Boise State @ UNLV	8	28	55
Colorado @ USC	20.8	40.5	57.5
Alabama @ Tennessee	16.6	20	55

Best of luck tonight guys.

**Tommygunn** · 10-20-12, 05:24 PM

Originally posted by Degenregen

We can still finish strong, just two more touchdowns for this Maryland game.

FYI I'm tracking these games for the under as well. They seem to match the filter's requirements in principal (AI thinks the Dog is much stronger than the line indicates). They're looking to go 2-0 so far, sample size is too small ofc, but I threw a quarter unit on all of them.

QUESTIONABLE GAME	DIFF	LINE	TOTAL
New Mexico State @ Utah State	12.3	31	56.5
Central Florida @ Memphis	12.8	22	50
Boise State @ UNLV	8	28	55
Colorado @ USC	20.8	40.5	57.5
Alabama @ Tennessee	16.6	20	55

Best of luck tonight guys.

I agree bro, I was just kidding. Nice work though helping Shiva out with these. Your doing a really good job

GL Everyone

**Degenregen** · 10-20-12, 05:50 PM

Thank you bro. If we don't do too well on tonights games I'll take the blame for trying to place too much mojo on the unders.

Also I misspoke about the Alabama @ Tennessee game, the AI does not think the underdog is all that strong in this game. (I still played it anyway though.)

**Tommygunn** · 10-20-12, 05:57 PM

NFL Week 7 (21/10/12)

**FL&A**

TB

Stl

**AI**

Clev +2.5 or >

TB -1 or <

Buff -4.5 or <

Stl +4.5 or >

Chi

Car PK or >

Balt +8 or >

**PR**

Ind -1 or <

Stl +5.5 or >

Buff

Chi -5.5 or <

**Higher PR Getting Points**

TB
Jax

**Double Digit Line PR Plays**

NYJ +12 or >

** Two quick notes

- As you can see AI has not been very good so you may want to consider Fading

- Also make sure just like the Totals Do Not Lay 1/2 A point. Buy it down

**Pete0** · 10-21-12, 02:41 AM

Originally posted by ShivaBowl

Maybe one of you tech guys can help me?
Right now I am running Firefox on my iPhone and when I try to post with in SBR it just cuts out and all my work is lost. I was just going crazy last night trying to put in a second half overplay and I just couldn't get it done.
Could someone please suggest a good web browser for my iPhone when posting on SBR please thank you

There seems to be a problem with the new iOS update for Apple products when using SBRforum.

I would suggest "Chrome" or "Atomic Browser" - I personally use atomic browser. Good luck

**ShivaBowl** · 10-21-12, 09:36 AM

Pro Football Artificial Intelligence
Team Projected Points for 10/21/2012 (Week 7)
2.5 Unit

Cleveland Browns v Indianapolis Colts
Game Total OVER 46 -110

Green Bay Packers v St Louis Rams
Game Total OVER 44 -120

Dallas Cowboys v Carolina Panthers
Game Total OVER 44 -120

New Orleans Saints v Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Game Total OVER 49 -110

Pittsburgh Steelers v Cincinnati Bengals
Game Total OVER 45 -110

**Pistol_Peter** · 10-21-12, 09:53 AM

Shiva, what's your YTD NFL record?

Edit: Nevermind, I just saw it.

**Dfjay9** · 10-21-12, 10:23 AM

Packers and panthers lines have moved 1.5 already

**Degenregen** · 10-21-12, 11:10 AM

Thanks for the lines Shiva and Tommy.

Kansas St. yesterday was

. At least we didn't lose after getting 50 in the first half though.

Almost all the unders hit yesterday. The ones that didn't missed by a few or less. Usually at the very end

. 4-1 on the 15-20 AI dogs. 3-2 on the junk that had high lines. I'll continue to post the junk, you can make the decision whether you want to bet it or not.

GAME	DIFF	LINE (10/19, Game Day)	TOTAL (10/19, Game Day)	FINAL SCORE
Middle Tennessee @ Mississippi ST	8	19, 17.5	56, 56	48
Wyoming @ Fresno State	10	16.5, 16.5	62.5, 62	56
Minnesota @ Wisconsin	4.1	17, 16	45.5, 45	51
Purdue @ Ohio	11.7	18.5, 18	62, 61.5	51
Tulane @ El Paso	9.6	16.5, 16.5	52, 52.5,55.5	44

QUESTIONABLE GAME	DIFF	LINE	TOTAL	FINAL SCORE
New Mexico State @ Utah State	12.3	31	56.5	48
Central Florida @ Memphis	12.8	22	50	52
Boise State @ UNLV	8	28	55	39
Colorado @ USC	20.8	40.5	57.5	56
Alabama @ Tennessee	16.6	20	55	57

BOL all