Advanced System Strategies NFL/CFB

ShivaBowl · 09-25-12, 09:04 AM

Pro Football Artificial Intelligence Team Projected Points for 2012

Source: Sportrends

Sportrends involvement with Neural Networks may become the next best way to predict NFL games, by finding ways to build mathematical models and identify critical statistics that provide the most reliability in predicting outcomes of future team performances. As most football fans might surmise, the combination of one team's passing offense compared to the other team's passing defense is a key factor in the outcome of a game. Likewise, rushing offense versus rushing defense is also a critical determinant. In addition, turnovers have been identified as significant variables, with interceptions appearing to matter more than fumbles. Obviously, point differential and team records are also a noteworthy consideration. We at Sportrends have settled on 12 statistical comparisons per team, plus home-field advantage for a total of 25 variables to identify teams which have a very good chance of covering the spread. What really matters is how the two teams match up. For example, lets assume one team has a great passing offense and its opponent has a weak secondary, while the second team has a good offensive line, and the first team has a week defensive line. What happens? How will that affect the outcome? Our model is designed to learn to predict that. As the season progresses, the predictions should become even more accurate because the neural network will become more refined.

Team picks have incorporated a 3 point overlay. Scores are based on last year stats. We recommend you wait until each team has played 3 games.

ShivaBowl · 09-25-12, 09:05 AM

Pro Football: Team Matchup Analysis for 2012

Source: Sportrends
There are many ways to handicap football games. The old adage “different strokes for different folks” can be applied to this venture. Let’s look at some of the different styles.

Fundamental analysis – This approach looks at the various matchups of the 2 teams to try to determine which side will have an advantage. This can be done by examining statistics such as rushing yards per game or rushing yards per play or any other statistic that you feel is relevant to a team having success. Other handicappers use a set of power ratings spotting strengths and weaknesses of teams to determine which team has the better chance of winning.

Technical analysis – This approach use trends and/or systems that exist to support one team or the other. There are many trends that can be found but the important thing for the handicapper is to determine which of these trends or systems are relevant. Just to base your plays on a trend that is meaningless or a trend that is back fitted to meet certain criteria is not good handicapping. Any trend that you base a play on should have a reason that it works.

Situational analysis – This approach will look at the teams and the situation they are in. Are they coming off a big win? Are they looking ahead to next week? How do they perform against this particular team? Do they play well after a loss? These are all questions that can help you determine how a team will perform in their upcoming game.

Line analysis – This approach looks at the line movement to determine which side to play based on value. This is a very difficult concept to grasp because it is not always clear why a line is doing what it is. This approach is probably best employed by the most experienced of handicappers because there can be a lot of misinformation out there.

Our selections for both side plays and O/U's are predominantly based on a combination of Fundamental and Line Analysis. Teams must play at least 3 games before making any plays.

ShivaBowl · 09-25-12, 09:06 AM

Pro Football: Team Power Rating System
Source: Sportrends
Power Ratings and NFL Philosophy.
NFL football betting looks easy, but nothing could be further from the truth. In fact, many novice handicappers including professionals claim that beating the NFL spread is the hardest thing to do in any sport! Make sure you gather all the information you can get and educate yourself because the oddsmakers are no joke and are out to clean your wallet.
While number crunching via power ratings are a must, detailed analysis is always an essential tool for pro football handicapping. There is a certain degree of "art" which compliments the "science". The successful handicapper understands that subjective analysis of a number of other factors which follows should also be considered before making a play.
Conditions: When handicapping the NFL, many novice cappers tend to overlook some of the nuts and bolts of handicapping a game. While there's a ton of things to check out before selecting a game, we suggest that you don't overlook the kicking game, injuries to offensive lineman, turnovers and weather.

Good vs. Bad Teams: One way to uncover value is to find matchups in which a really good team is playing a really bad team. The oddsmakers know that this type of match up gives the perception that the weaker team is going to get crushed and sadly enough the general betting public is going to jump all over the favorite in the matchup regardless of whether they put out a line of -7 or -10.

Parity: Have you noticed that dynasty's no longer exist and that the National Football League has become very competitive and that each week there are a number of upsets, both straight up and against the spread?

Value Betting: The sportsbooks are forced to put out a line on every game on the weekend's NFL card. You however are not required to wager on every game, and if you do there is a strong possibility that you are going to get smacked around by the books. This is the first step to grabbing value. You just have to make sure that you only pull the trigger if you think you've got a legitimate shot of hitting a bulls-eye.

Explanation of Power Ratings: True Power Ratings are purely objective and a deadly weapon in any handicapper's arsenal. They are the key to every aspect of statistical analysis. No emotion or bias is involved. PR calculations must be very responsive or they become old news before you get a chance to use them. Our PR method allows us to judge, with pin point accuracy the relative strengths of teams in any given sports event. PR's are an exceptional handicapping tool and should be utilized with many other handicapping tools such as trend, statistical and fundamental analysis. Our first step is to obtain a total Offensive/Defensive index along with each teams strength of opposition (SOS). We then logarithmically increment or front-load our PR's to reflect each teams recent performance. We use linear regression analysis to calculate and integrate all this information into an overall power rating. Our aim is to obtain winners via Power Ratings.

To make predictions for scheduled upcoming games, simply compare the Home Team's Power Rating to that of the Away Team's Power Rating and add 3 points for the home team advantage. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 110.7 would be favored by 17.2 points, 110.7 + 3 = 113.7 over a VISITING team having a rating of 96.5. Or a VISITING team with a rating of 91.0 would be favored by 5 points over a HOME team having a rating of 83.0, 83.0 + 3 = 86.0. Our preference is the Overall Power Rating + 3 for HFA. Use the Home/Away Power Ratings to confirm the Overall PR.
Make sure there is at least a 2 point overlay.
1. Always make your wages 10 to 15 minutes prior to tip off.
2. Never play a game with a double digit line.
3. Pass games where the team with lower PR is laying pts. There must be at least a 1 point differential for a team with a higher PR to lay points.
4. We feel injuries are irrelevant. The oddsmakers take into account injuries and the publics perception of this and adjust the lines accordingly. Teams must have played at least 2 games.

ShivaBowl · 09-25-12, 09:09 AM

A/I Plays NFL/CFB
Plays are based on early lines.
Check lines with a majority of casinos.
Pass on plays, if outside the line parameters.
Pass any game where the favorite is greater then 15 points.
90% of the time, when our play is on an over the line will move higher.
If the line doesn’t > we may be on the wrong side?
Check on weather conditions. Observe line moment.
Never lay a half a point on an Over Play. Always buy it down.

ShivaBowl · 09-25-12, 09:42 AM

AI Plays week 4 NFL
Plays may come in or drop out.
All A/I total plays are to win $200.00

NFL: Sep 30 1:00 PM ET Patriots @ Bills
> 51
NFL: Sep 30 1:00 PM ET 49ers @ Jets
> 39
NFL: Sep 30 4:25 PM ET Redskins @ Buccaneers
> 48
NFL: Sep 30 4:25 PM ET Saints @ Packers
> 54
NFL: Sep 30 8:20 PM ET Giants @ Eagles
> 45
NFL: Oct 1 8:30 PM ET Bears @ Cowboys
> 42

ShivaBowl · 09-25-12, 10:41 AM

Guys I will have the CFB plays up tomorrow.
I have to break down the two filters All dogs and And A/I DIFF dogs.

Tommygunn · 09-25-12, 11:10 AM

Thanks Shiva. I'll be doing PR, AI and FL&A on my own anyway, would you like me to post and track all three? I will also be using the margin and true power from the software in conjunction with those. The software stuff I will not post though.

Also Shiva I just sent Sam an email clarifying a few things with the AI and FL&A. When i hear from him I will be ready to go. I will probably wait till Saturday afternoons to post plays so that the lines are as current as possible.

bigelv · 09-25-12, 12:59 PM

Thanks shiva

airattackers · 09-26-12, 01:57 AM

@tommygunn..i also have the software and i sure could use some help on some of the software features..is it alright if i ask you questions from time to time?..i know the basics on how to use it, i just need a little help on some features in the "situational analysis" catagory..your help would be greatly appreciated...i also will not post any software plays on this forum so maybe we could just message each other somehow..whatever works for you will work for me!!

also, i have a few formulas that i can share with you if you can share some of yours with me!! i really could use some help in creating some good ones..

ShivaBowl · 09-26-12, 09:46 AM

Originally posted by Tommygunn

Thanks Shiva. I'll be doing PR, AI and FL&A on my own anyway, would you like me to post and track all three? I will also be using the margin and true power from the software in conjunction with those. The software stuff I will not post though.

Also Shiva I just sent Sam an email clarifying a few things with the AI and FL&A. When i hear from him I will be ready to go. I will probably wait till Saturday afternoons to post plays so that the lines are as current as possible.

Okay Tommygunn; thank you
It looks like you're ready to go, appreciate it thanks.

ShivaBowl · 09-26-12, 09:49 AM

Originally posted by ;16149382

Thanks shiva

You`re welcome bigelv, If you have anything on your mind, please post it.
Thanks

ShivaBowl · 09-26-12, 09:53 AM

Originally posted by ShivaBowl

AI Plays week 4 NFL
Plays may come in or drop out.
All A/I total plays are to win $200.00

NFL: Sep 30 1:00 PM ET Patriots @ Bills
> 51
NFL: Sep 30 1:00 PM ET 49ers @ Jets
> 39
NFL: Sep 30 4:25 PM ET Redskins @ Buccaneers
> 48
NFL: Sep 30 4:25 PM ET Saints @ Packers
> 54
NFL: Sep 30 8:20 PM ET Giants @ Eagles
> 45
NFL: Oct 1 8:30 PM ET Bears @ Cowboys
> 42

A/I Over Plays Week 5
1-1-1 -$20.00

12:00 PM ET Indiana Hoosiers @ Northwestern > 58

12:00 PM ET Minnesota Golden Gophers @ Iowa > 46

12:00 PM ET North Carolina State Wolfpack @ Miami (FL) > 55

7:50 PM ET Texas Longhorns @ Oklahoma State > 66

Tracking Filter; Play Over when A/I picks a dog.

12:00 PM ET Baylor Bears @ West Virginia > 79

12:30 PM ET Duke Blue Devils @ Wake Forest > 59

2:00 PM ET Miami (OH) RedHawks @ Akron > 58

3:30 PM ET Houston Cougars @ Rice > 73

3:30 PM ET Ohio State Buckeyes @ Michigan State > 43

3:30 PM ET Clemson Tigers @ Boston College > 59

4:00 PM ET Arizona State Sun Devils @ California > 54
No Play If ASU PK or > -

freewinners4u · 09-26-12, 10:21 AM

clemson over fav play

ShivaBowl · 09-26-12, 10:30 AM

Originally posted by freewinners4u

clemson over fav play

Buy it like you would a stock, take some down now at 59 it looks like it may be trending higher.
GL

joeytunes · 09-26-12, 03:35 PM

cool

bigelv · 09-26-12, 04:08 PM

Originally posted by bigelv

Thanks shiva

Thanks for the points!!!

Shivas I'm kind of confused. You say play over when A/I picks a dog. Does that mean you will releasing the picks also or should we take the dog on those over plays? Also on the nfl plays will you release picks on the game or is this system only for the over/under?

ShivaBowl · 09-26-12, 07:09 PM

Excellent question bigelv,To come up with the AI over plays I have to breakdown 122 teams and 61 game match ups from ST.
Also I have to monitor all the lines on all 61 games this week because some of the plays to drop out and some come in due to line movement.

In the NFL last year play any AI dog was very successful, the year before that it was not.
So we are going to stay with it this year, I'm hoping it will do as well as it did last year.

College football: play over on any AI dog last year did not work out too well.
That's why I have those plays listed as tracking filter because I'm not 100% sold on it just yet.
In week one they all killed it. I think the tracking any dog filter went 5-1 .

The AI system itself can be very profitable if you know which plays to fade and which ones to play straight up.

But if you faded AI last week you got your lungs ripped out, because just about all of them where winners.

Unfortunately I don't have the time right now to do the college football AI plays, but I will be posting the NFL plays.
thanks

ShivaBowl · 09-26-12, 07:20 PM

If GGPLAYER, would be kind enough to check in.
I think he could help me out with this subject?
thank you

Tommygunn · 09-27-12, 10:21 AM

Thank god the refs are back. I was considering tracking and not even laying any bets if they still had the homeless people they pulled off the streets calling games.

cash$bro91 · 09-27-12, 12:43 PM

Originally posted by ShivaBowl

In the NFL last year play any AI dog was very successful, the year before that it was not. So we are going to stay with it this year, I'm hoping it will do as well as it did last year.

Shiva,
I thought the NFL A/I over plays went something like 28-13 for the 2010 regular season.

ShivaBowl · 09-27-12, 01:23 PM

Originally posted by cash$bro91

Shiva,
I thought the NFL A/I over plays went something like 28-13 for the 2010 regular season.

I don't know about that I have to go back and look but I think we had only one losing week In 2010 NFL , also we did not play all A/I dogs in 2010 but we did in 2011 and it did quite we'll.
In 2010 with college football at one point we were 41 and 9 or something like that maybe GG player can help me out.
I have to tell you though there is too many plays I have to find a way of cutting them down it looks like the Giants may drop out and San Diego also.
With any luck one or two more will also go.
Thanks bro I'll talk to you later

HOOKEMcnh · 09-27-12, 07:20 PM

So the giants @ eagles opened at 45, I have it now at 47.5. So if it's at that number before kickoff it drops out? If the total is 45 or below at kickoff play the over? Thanks for clarifying.

ShivaBowl · 09-28-12, 03:57 PM

I put out good lines last Tuesday, on all these over plays.
They were all in range, at a majority of the casinos.
It may be to late to chase them now, see what SAT brings.
I will be out SAT so BOL.

A/I Over Plays Week 5
Updated

12:00 PM ET Minnesota Golden Gophers @ Iowa > 45

12:00 PM ET Ball State Cardinals @ Kent State Golden 53

12:00 PM ET Baylor Bears @ West Virginia > 79
Posted it at 79 trending >

12:00 PM ET Indiana Hoosiers @ Northwestern >58
Posted it at 58 trending >

12:00 PM ET North Carolina State Wolfpack @ Miami (FL) > 55
Posted it at 55 trending >

ShivaBowl · 09-28-12, 04:57 PM

AI Plays week 4 NFL
Update
Never lay a half a point on a Over Play. Always buy it down.

NFL: Sep 30 4:25 PM ET Saints @ Packers > 53.5

NFL: Sep 30 1:00 PM ET Patriots @ Bills > 50.5

NFL: Sep 30 4:05 PM ET Cincinnati @ Jaguars > 43.5

Tracking the WIZ filter: Play over the total when A/I picks a dog.
Plays week 4 NFL

NFL: Sep 30 1:00 PM ET 49ers @ Jets 39
Now at 41

NFL: Sep 30 1:00 PM ET San Diego @ Kansas City 44.5
No Play If SD > -1

NFL: Sep 30 4:25 PM ET Redskins @ Buccaneers 47.5
No Play If WAS > - 1

NFL: Sep 30 8:20 PM ET Giants @ Eagles 45.5
No Play If NYG > -1
Now at 47.5

NFL: Oct 1 8:30 PM ET Bears @ Cowboys 41.5
No Play If CHI PK or > -1

kujo214 · 09-28-12, 06:53 PM

im sorry, im a newbie here...could you explain this in the simplest way possible?

"NFL: Oct 1 8:30 PM ET Bears @ Cowboys 41.5
No Play If CHI PK or > -1"

Tommygunn · 09-29-12, 03:28 PM

NFL Plays for 30/09/12

FL&A

Buff +2.5 or >

PR

NE -5 or <

Det -9.5 or <

NYJ +4 or >

SD -3 or <

SEA -6.5 or <

OAK +6 or >

NYG +3.5 or >

Higher PR Getting Points

Mia +4 or >

Wash -1.5 or <

Sportrends advises "Pass on games where the team with the lower PR is laying points". Last year I found these to be the games with the highest winning %. I will keep them in a separate category though, so we can track their performance. I will also be starting a category for games with double digits; there are none this week. GL BOL

bigelv · 09-29-12, 03:30 PM

Thanks Tommy!!

ShivaBowl · 09-30-12, 09:07 AM

A/I Over Plays Week 5
Went 4-1 Yesterday
+$580.00

Originally posted by ShivaBowl

A/I Over Plays Week 5
Updated

12:00 PM ET Minnesota Golden Gophers @ Iowa > 45 Loss
Total points in this game 44 .

12:00 PM ET Ball State Cardinals @ Kent State Golden 53 WIN

12:00 PM ET Baylor Bears @ West Virginia > 79 WIN

12:00 PM ET Indiana Hoosiers @ Northwestern >58 WIN

12:00 PM ET North Carolina State Wolfpack @ Miami (FL) > 55 WIN

Tracking Filter; any AI Dog, went 4-2 yesterday
+$440.00

12:30 PM ET Duke Blue Devils @ Wake Forest > 59 WIN

2:00 PM ET Miami (OH) RedHawks @ Akron > 58 WIN

3:30 PM ET Houston Cougars @ Rice > 73 Loss

3:30 PM ET Ohio State Buckeyes @ Michigan State > 43 Loss

3:30 PM ET Clemson Tigers @ Boston College > 59 WIN

4:00 PM ET Arizona State Sun Devils @ California >54
No Play If ASU Pk or -1 NO PLAY

7:50 PM ET Texas Longhorns @ Oklahoma State > 66 WIN

TOTAL for Saturday +$1,020.00

ShivaBowl · 09-30-12, 09:37 AM

Originally posted by HOOKEMcnh

So the giants @ eagles opened at 45, I have it now at 47.5. So if it's at that number before kickoff it drops out? If the total is 45 or below at kickoff play the over? Thanks for clarifying.

Originally posted by kujo214

im sorry, im a newbie here...could you explain this in the simplest way possible?

"NFL: Oct 1 8:30 PM ET Bears @ Cowboys 41.5
No Play If CHI PK or > -1"

I will update the plays in a few. I will make them easier to understand.
No problem.

lambert58 · 09-30-12, 09:50 AM

Hey Shiva... Great day yesterday!! As always

Im kinda new to the forum but i love it. Im still trying to learn the lingo with the A.I filter like for instance the NFL picks today but im getting there. I guess what im having trouble with is the wiz filter right now? What do u mean when u say play over the total when A.I picks a dog? And man i really wanted to take the other college games yesterday...the games u had posted where it says tracking filter any A.I dog and u went 4-2. I wanted to take those games but i never know when to take them? But i did take the games that said updated and u went 4-1. But i do believe the Iowa game went to 44 not over 45 but the u won the Northwestern game cause i believe that went to 61? I dont know i would have to double check. Anyways your a hell of a handicapper and i love your system. Great job and keep it up

ShivaBowl · 09-30-12, 10:00 AM

Originally posted by lambert58

Hey Shiva... Great day yesterday!! As always

Im kinda new to the forum but i love it. Im still trying to learn the lingo with the A.I filter like for instance the NFL picks today but im getting there. I guess what im having trouble with is the wiz filter right now? What do u mean when u say play over the total when A.I picks a dog? And man i really wanted to take the other college games yesterday...the games u had posted where it says tracking filter any A.I dog and u went 4-2. I wanted to take those games but i never know when to take them? But i did take the games that said updated and u went 4-1. But i do believe the Iowa game went to 44 not over 45 but the u won the Northwestern game cause i believe that went to 61? I dont know i would have to double check. Anyways your a hell of a handicapper and i love your system. Great job and keep it up

Right, #$## MIN gos for two at the end of the game and missed it.
What the hell was MIN doing? All I needed was a extra point try, for a push.
Shit Happens.
I fixed It, Thanks

House · 09-30-12, 10:11 AM

Dam, I wish I understood this stuff lol I thought I was smart hahahah good shit , whatever your doing seems to be hitting at a good rate , keep it up . And maybe explain it in laymen's terms for the couple of us that are a little slower hahahah again , very interesting Shiva, Ive been watching this thread for a couple years now , love to start working this out .....Help hahahaha and GL today , hell everyday !!! ok I just read everything and Im even more confused lol come on Shiva , Im gonna go rip a bowl and I'll be back to read your laymen's version lol the arrow pointing left or right is under or over correct ? I think thats starting at the beginning lol so if A.I picks a dog play the over ? so this week is it Jets & SF over ?

ShivaBowl · 09-30-12, 10:30 AM

AI Plays week 4 NFL
Last Update
Never lay a half a point on an Over Play. Always buy it down.
Check lines with a majority of casinos.

NFL: Sep 30 1:00 PM ET Patriots @ Bills 48.5

NFL: Sep 30 4:05 PM ET Cincinnati @ Jaguars > 44
No Play If CIN PK or -1

NFL: Sep 30 4:25 PM ET Saints @ Packers > 53.5

Tracking the WIZ filter: Play over the total when A/I picks a dog.
Plays week 4 NFL

NFL: Sep 30 1:00 PM ET 49ers @ Jets 39
Now at 41

NFL: Sep 30 1:00 PM ET San Diego @ Kansas City 44.5
No Play If SD PK or –1

NFL: Sep 30 4:25 PM ET Redskins @ Buccaneers 45
No Play If WAS PK or –1

NFL: Sep 30 8:20 PM ET Giants @ Eagles 45.5
No Play If NYG PK or –1
Now at 47

NFL: Oct 1 8:30 PM ET Bears @ Cowboys 41.5
No Play If CHI PK or –1

AS OF RIGHT NOW SD and CIN are –1 so they will
Drop Out as plays today. If the lines stay as they are right now.

The NYG are +1.5 as of right now, if the NYG
Go to PK or –1 the will drop out as a play tonight.

What to do about the only dog filter. I really don't have any idea, last year was a good year for this filter. Maybe you should just put something $ on the play.

lambert58 · 09-30-12, 10:40 AM

Lol!! they did go for 2. Makes no sense. But u crushed the Northwestern game cause i believe that went to 73. BTW its still the same record 4-1. I do have a qustion though. What do u mean when u say (Play over the total when A.I picks a dog?) R these the games that u r tracking or should i take them? I hate asking cause i feel like a nuisence. Thx