oh well...i'll wait for Stanford
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6.5 and 3 is the middlesComment -
no play for half or game totalsbrComment -
thanks on3Comment -
does this work on college?sbrComment -
Stanford game is most likely a 2nd half Under play; still waiting for halftimeComment -
under 23?Comment -
Stanford 2nd Half Under 23 is a playComment -
doneComment -
can someone confirm 21' still a play right?Comment -
Yep
-playr101Comment -
thanks p101, still 13 key number in ncaaf?Comment -
18.5 Differential...
-playr101Comment -
yes and no.. I play 10 but most go w/ 13
-playr101Comment -
yeah anything over 13 is what i mean.Comment -
ok got, it thanks.Comment -
Spreadsheet
Attached is a spreadsheet that someone uploaded. I forgot who i was and I am too lazy to go back a few pages.
I use the covers.com live odds for closing lines as the creator (NJPorky) does.
-playr101Comment -
So... If middle is over 13 bet he under and vice versa or can someone clear it upComment -
a winner
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that interception saved us!!!Comment -
this system is amazing. gonna keep following how it does this Saturday in college. anyone know if the system is more effective in college or nfl?sbrComment -
If the middle is over 13 then it is a play. You bet the same as the first half went. So if it is way under 1H - bet under 2H, if it is way over 1H - bet over 2H, if the favorite is way over the spread 1H - bet the favorite 2H, and if the underdog is way under the spread - bet the underdog 2H.Originally posted by bmansell33
-playr101Comment -
I am going to imagine that your spread numbers that are required for a play are going to be much higher in college than pros. Again, a database should be used to find the optimum curve range.Comment -
Just looking for some help.....
I am almost done my back test, however I cannot find historical half time lines for the 2006 season,
can anyone point me to a site that would have this information, I have googled and yahoo'd and cannot find this information for the last season.
Thank you.Comment -
what site are you using for historical lines?Comment -
sbrodds.com has everything you need and is the easiest for 2009,2010,2011 and this season's data.... sucks you can't get anything reliable past the 2009 season for halftime lines. Take a few minutes and set your filters.Originally posted by BALISTIK
Friend sent me 2007,2008 seasons, need 2006.... this back test will not be posted until I can get this data.....
One thing this back test has taught me so far is that juice is incredibleComment -
NFL System Back Test - Delayed
Tonight's back test is not ready, simply put, it was very difficult to get the prices associated with the spreads from past seasons after the 2009 season.
I feel it would be irrelevant to post the w/l results without going and finding these prices to add to the older seasons.
My plan is to release the back test with total profit/loss from the perspective of a $100 bettor.
A couple of quick tidbits though of the progress of back test.....
- If your the type of person who deviates from a strict money management, you will lose with this method. It is not if, not maybe, you WILL lose large.
- If you think a 2-3.5% Return on Investment per month sucks (5 months per season essentially), do not use this system, you will be disappointed.
You will have months where we are showing higher ROI but it averages out to be approximately 2-3% return so far from my preliminary findings....
Now please note, I am still going to provide detailed back test results, I just need to complete the 2006 season and some pricing issues and I will post it. I wouldn't be doing anybody any justice putting together a presentation that isn't exactly clear, there is enough snake oil salesman & touts in this business.
If anyone can point me in the direction of half time lines and prices for the 2006 season please let me know asap.
Please do not think I am advocating you go out and take out loans to be able to participate in this method.
It seems like there is a small edge with our 13 number, so far I am showing we are small loser for the 12 and under numbers, not winning percentage wise, but after juice we start to lose at 12- and obviously lose more the lower number we use.
Play within your limits, play with a sound monetary strategy for me 1-2% risk of your account per play is acceptable with 2% being somewhat aggressive for my tastes.
Again, my apologies for not having this ironed out, I hope you all can appreciate the undertaking it is to find historical half time lines and prices from after 2009, it's been extremely frustrating and tedious to say the least, but if it can help make us some extra money, I am sure it'll be worth it!!
AndyComment -
Andy:
Dude...you are incredible. Thank you so much for the effort. Especially helping ignorant souls like me that do not have your chops.
Your write up here shows a very solid knowledge and command of the essence of sports betting and handicapping: Narrowly focused attention to small edges that with proper money management discipline can lead to big profits over time.
Like all systems, this one will also have long run outs where every pick loses and by big margins. Piling up bigger bets because you think it cannot lose anymore is just a road to disaster.
Remember this: The largest advantage that the book (or casino) has over you as a player is what is called "Gambler's Ruin". It essentially means that when a single player goes on a cold streak they will often press their bets to get it back. They don't know that they have hit an mathematical variance wave that will soon destroy their bankroll. And when the roll is gone..so are they.
Then, the numbers turn to the player's side again but they are not betting (or betting very small) because they are broke. When the casino or book has a bad day, the players keep firing until the book starts to win again. That and the juice is enough to keep them fat and happy forever.
Thank you again for your work. I am sure someone can help with the 06 numbers. I can't wait to see the actual numbers. I am curious if the win percentages get larger the more the spread increases. I mean do 16 spread differences win at a higher rate than 13s?
The very best to all.Comment -
Andy -- are you backtesting NCAAF and NFL?Comment -
im trying to give andy pts. but it wont let me. either way, thanks for the work bro.Comment -
no play on BYU/HawaiiComment -
No just NFL....Originally posted by on3
On3 you might have connections with someone with a good historic database, but its hard enough to find sites with NFL 2H spread/price
For whatever reason anything before 2009 is hard enough, was very surprised it has been this tough.Comment -
should we start a new thread with the middling system for NCAA football? Is anyone interested in this? Or do we have any indication of whether it is successful or not? I'd presume it has similar success but not 100% sure we want to follow it given previous comments in the thread.
thanks!Comment -
Originally posted by jmaldonado
Yes JM...I don't think we will ever know how or if it works in college without our own in-house labby. The system was designed for pros...but the principles may be the same for college. I suspect it will require a whole new model for the bigger spread differences that you will find in college. Otherwise, you will have a million games.
If you start one, let us know and I will link and bookmark it.
The very best.Comment -
We should try to keep plays in one spot makes it pretty nice to check and playComment
